Board 8 > College Football Ladder Contest Bowl Season

(+) Yeah! (+)

Hawai'i Bowl: Fresno State +2.8
Heart of Dallas Bowl: West Virginia +6.5
Quick Lane Bowl: Northern Illinois +5
Cactus Bowl: Kansas State -2.5
Independence Bowl: Southern Miss +16.5
Pinstripe Bowl: Iowa -2.5
Foster Farms Bowl: Arizona -3.5
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I just realised I passed Round 1.
Went 3-4 Round 2 though :(
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+2.8, eh?
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Round 3

Hawai'i Bowl: Fresno State +2.5
Heart of Dallas Bowl: West Virginia +6.5
Quick Lane Bowl: Northern Illinois +5
Cactus Bowl: UCLA +2.5
Independence Bowl: Southern Miss +16.5
Pinstripe Bowl: Boston College +2.5
Foster Farms Bowl: Purdue +3.5

All underdogs worked once and would have worked again had I done it last round.
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Really was that easy for all of us to get Fresno State right eh

I had Fresno one spot ahead of Houston, so giving Houston points made it an easy call for me, yeah.

....not that my rankings have helped me much so far >_>
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btw level updates ok

Level 9:
TsunamiXXVIII
kevwaffles
Paratroopa1

Level 8:

Level 7:
5tarscream

Level 6:

Level 5:
KCF0107

Level 4:
:(

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

KCF0107 posted...

Well, I am 3-3 and need Akron to cover

Oh, I missed that. Very well then, seeing as how the line has a half-point, it seems that either KCF or 5tarscream will be joining kev, Para, and me for advancement.

...I don't see how this could have been correct. they both went 3-4 in round 1 by my count.
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jcgamer107 posted...

btw level updates ok

Level 9:
TsunamiXXVIII
kevwaffles
Paratroopa1

Level 8:

Level 7:
5tarscream

Level 6:

Level 5:
KCF0107

Level 4:
:(

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

KCF0107 posted...

Well, I am 3-3 and need Akron to cover

Oh, I missed that. Very well then, seeing as how the line has a half-point, it seems that either KCF or 5tarscream will be joining kev, Para, and me for advancement.

...I don't see how this could have been correct. they both went 3-4 in round 1 by my count.

Ah, you're right. Must've misread his post when I came to that conclusion; it certainly did have its fair share of errors.
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We're only one game into Round 3 but I usually try to put this up a couple days in advance and the games start coming quickly now.

Round 4:

Texas Bowl: Missouri -2.5 vs. Texas
Military Bowl: Virginia +1 @ Navy
Camping World Bowl: Virginia Tech +4 vs. Oklahoma State
Alamo Bowl: Stanford +2.5 vs. TCU
Holiday Bowl: Michigan State (PK) vs. Washington State
Belk Bowl: Wake Forest -3 vs. Texas A&M
Sun Bowl: North Carolina State -6.5 vs. Arizona State

Wow, an actual pick'em.
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Missouri (-2.5)
Navy (-1)
Oklahoma State (-4)
TCU (-2.5)
Michigan State
Wake Forest (-3)
N.C State (-6.5)

Hasn't AZ St.'s HC, OC, and DC all left the program? I can't imagine that things will go well for the Sun Devils.
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5tarscream posted...

Celebration Bowl: North Carolina A&T -9.5 wrong
New Orleans Bowl: North Texas +6 wrong
Cure Bowl: Georgia State +6.5 right
Las Vegas Bowl: Boise State +7 right
New Mexico Bowl: Colorado State +5.5 right
Camellia Bowl: Middle Arkansas State -3.5 void
Boca Raton Bowl: Florida Atlantic -22.5 right

No?
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Round 4:

Texas Bowl: Texas (+2.5)
Military Bowl: Navy
Camping World Bowl: Oklahoma State (-4)
Alamo Bowl: Stanford (+2.5)
Holiday Bowl: Washington State
Belk Bowl: Wake Forest (-3)
Sun Bowl: North Carolina State (-6.5)
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5tarscream posted...

5tarscream posted...

Celebration Bowl: North Carolina A&T -9.5 wrong
New Orleans Bowl: North Texas +6 wrong
Cure Bowl: Georgia State +6.5 right
Las Vegas Bowl: Boise State +7 right
New Mexico Bowl: Colorado State +5.5 right
Camellia Bowl: Middle Arkansas State -3.5 void
Boca Raton Bowl: Florida Atlantic -22.5 right

No?

Colorado State +5.5 isn't a real line.

kevwaffles posted...

5tarscream posted...

New Mexico Bowl: Colorado State +5.5

Incorrect, they're the favored team.

5tarscream posted...

Then -5.5

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I hate not going with my initial thoughts. I was positive that Utah would win and wanted to take them against the spread. I have no idea what changed my mind.
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On another note (since the topic where the group was announced seems to have purged), I just did the math, and if Cokes hadn't created the Bowl Mania group with a different account than the one he actually made his picks on (which I assume means he can't remove the one without picks from the group since it's the Group Owner), our group would actually be on the leaderboard right now. Probably; all of the groups actually on the leaderboard have at least "20+" in their "members" column, so at 10 members, we might be too small. But taking out the 0 entry, our average is 146.90; the bottom of the leaderboard is 146.72.

Edit: Actually, I was looking at the other B8-related groups, and they don't have their original creators in the group. I'll message Cokes.
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Wow, Utah did actually get it done. I'm not SHOCKED by that, but I don't regret taking WVU +6.5 regardless. That was a tough spread.

Round 4:

Texas Bowl: Texas +2.5
Military Bowl: Navy -1
Camping World Bowl: Oklahoma State -4
Alamo Bowl: TCU -2.5
Holiday Bowl: Michigan State
Belk Bowl: Wake Forest -3
Sun Bowl: North Carolina State -6.5

The "common wisdom", and I'll admit I initially fell for this when making up my Bowl Mania selections and had a high degree of confidence on them, is that Mizzou is a scorching hot team, winning 6 straight after a 1-5 start. A closer look, however, reveals that their 6-0 second half featured absolutely no games against teams with winning records. Their schedule was frontloaded as hell. Give me Texas for this one; they may have their own issues but at least they didn't lose 35-3 on their home field to a team that's barely bowl-eligible.

Speaking of the hot and the not, both of these teams are decidedly "not", with one of them starting 5-0 and the other 5-1 and both winding up at 6-6. But I just recently had been trying to determine the new longest bowl droughts now that NMSU is in one and managed to mark Virginia as being second only to Kansas, causing me to double-take when I saw this matchup. Navy, at least, I remembered was in a bowl this year.

I don't have a terribly high degree of confidence on this matchup, but it's a small enough line that I'll go with the team I picked straight-up.

Washington State is another team that I had a fairly decent confidence level on in my initial Bowl Mania picks, and honestly, I don't know why. Did I perceive the Pac-12 as being a stronger league than the Big Ten? Wazzu lost to a non-bowl team in conference play, which isn't easy to do given the percentage of the league that's bowl-bound. MSU, they fell victim to Northwestern's weird OT mojo, but that's about their worst loss. I don't know, I guess Wazzu has the better wins. Maybe. They did beat USC, but MSU beat Penn State so that's almost a wash.

And with the Belk Bowl, the "who did you beat" vs. "who did you lose to" debate comes to a head. Texas A&M's only quality win is a 7-point home win over South Carolina, which is not exactly stellar, but the only thing remotely resembling a bad loss was that Week 1 collapse to UCLA. Wake, uh...let's call them "generous", as two of their losses were to ACC teams that only just squeaked into the bowl picture at 6-6, including one that was literally in the final week before conference championship games. They also lost to Georgia Tech, who only wound up 5-6, but let's be honest, they more likely than not would've been 5-7 if they'd gotten to play their lost game. However, the Deacons also upset Louisville and NC State...in fact, 5 of their 6 FBS wins came against bowl-eligible teams, compared to...technically only one of A&M's, though based on records it's 2 of 6 (Ole Miss was on a postseason ban). So I'd say Wake has the better resume.

NC State fell into a funk late in the year, following a legitimately good loss to Clemson (and a rough loss to a good team in Notre Dame the week before that) with a squeaker over BC and the aforementioned loss to Wake Forest. But ASU is just a mess.
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Oh ok.
Clearly I'm not paying attention at the moment. I'm too ill.
I'm out.
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Missouri -2.5
Virginia +1
Oklahoma State -4
Stanford +2.5
Washington State
Wake Forest -3
North Carolina State -6.5

I have a feeling I could just be wrong about Missouri and Virginia for the exact reasons Tsunami just gave, but fuck it. These were both matchups I didn't feel many things about.

Skeptical about VT. Will take Oklahoma State even though they don't know what defense is.

Gonna fanboy out and take some Pac-12 teams. Go Cougs. This is a leap of faith if there ever was one.

Arrrgh I'm MAD that Wake Forest is favored here because I really expected them to be the underdog by 3 or 4 points, but I guess everyone is wise to this one. Wake Forest has been kind of my pet team all year and I really expect them to do some good things here.

Yeeeah why isn't NC State favored by more? This line would have been fine BEFORE Arizona State went through a complete staff overhaul. Don't get it. Arizona State is actually not that bad all things considered but with the state they're in I do not expect them to keep within a TD of a very good NC State team. (Keep in mind that not all bowl teams with interrim coaches lose - Washington won their bowl game against BYU the year that Sark left, much to my surprise. but yeah)

Texas Bowl: Texas (+2.5)
Military Bowl: Navy (-1)
Camping World Bowl: Oklahoma State (-4)
Alamo Bowl: Stanford (+2.5)
Holiday Bowl: Michigan State (PK)
Belk Bowl: Texas A&M (+3)
Sun Bowl: Arizona State (+6.5)

Gimme Texas all day, they're much better than their record. Navy/Virginia is basically a toss up, but since I undervalued Army I'll see if I can compensate with Navy. I like OK State to win so I'll just assume they can do so by at least 4. I like TCU to win too, but I think I may be undervaluing the Pac-12, and Stanford finished the season really strong so I'm going against my gut on this one. I'm surprised Michigan St isn't favored, easy choice. I'm more surprised Wake Forest is favored, A&M's looked much better than them this year. Again I'd pick NC State to win straight up, but don't want to short the Pac-12, and Arizona St has that quality Washington win.

5tarscream posted...

Oh ok.
Clearly I'm not paying attention at the moment. I'm too ill.
I'm out.

Wasn't trying to discourage you from playing - just posting a reminder of what happened
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Round 4:

Texas Bowl: Missouri -2.5
Military Bowl: Virginia +1
Camping World Bowl: Virginia Tech +4
Alamo Bowl: TCU -2.5
Holiday Bowl: Michigan State
Belk Bowl: Texas A&M +3
Sun Bowl: North Carolina State -6.5
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Yeah I shouldn't have been intimidated by the spread - the Power 5/Group of 5 gap really showed there.
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Ouch, I'm finally really taking it on the nose here

Wow. Didn't realize how much we all agreed on Round 3. I really only picked USM to cover because I couldn't bring myself to root for the Seminoles, but we were unanimous on Fresno State, unanimous on West Virginia, unanimous on USM... and kev's "all underdogs" strategy was the only one to pick UCLA or Purdue, while I was the only one to pick Duke.

Which means that unless Arizona comes back to win this game, the only one to advance will be... me, thanks to that Duke pick and me getting the one game that had multiple people on both sides correct. The fully unanimous picks went 1-2, while the near-unanimous ones went 1-1 so far, 1-2 if Purdue keeps this up. Hm.
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All underdogs "strategy". You put the quotes on the wrong part.
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Paratroopa1 posted...

Arrrgh I'm MAD that Wake Forest is favored here because I really expected them to be the underdog by 3 or 4 points, but I guess everyone is wise to this one. Wake Forest has been kind of my pet team all year and I really expect them to do some good things here.

I know, right? I almost wrote that one down incorrectly because you figure an ACC-SEC matchup with equal overall records, the SEC team will be favored 9 times out of 10, with the tenth being if Kentucky or Vanderbilt ended up having to face someone like Florida State or Miami. The Vegas lines are set as much by the court of public opinion as by the actual respective skill levels, and... it's Wake Forest. Even when they're good, the casual fan expects them not to be.

kevwaffles posted...

All underdogs "strategy". You put the quotes on the wrong part.

Fair enough.
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Missouri isn't trying to win this game, I'm pretty sure.
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Seriously. They're not letting Lock throw even on 3rd and long and they ended the half with all of their timeouts.
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wow I got fucking owned

3 out of 7, goddam it
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Not sure if anyone was watching and not sure if it spread at all past my section, but I was at the Texas Bowl and I got a pretty successful MVP chant going for the punter!
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Who the fuck's bright idea was it to have two good bowl games start at the same time

Round 5:
Music City Bowl: Kentucky +7.5 vs. Northwestern
Arizona Bowl: Utah State -4 vs. New Mexico State
Cotton Bowl: USC +7.5 vs. Ohio State
TaxSlayer Bowl: Louisville -6.5 vs. Mississippi State
Liberty Bowl: Iowa State +3.5 vs. Memphis
Fiesta Bowl: Washington -2 vs. Penn State
Orange Bowl: Wisconsin -6 vs. Miami (FL)
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Kentucky +7.5
Utah State -4
USC +7.5
Louisville -6.5
Memphis -3.5
Penn State +2
Miami (FL) +6
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Level 5:

Wow, what a joke. I've got a lot of the underdogs straight-up here, some of them with an incredibly high confidence level.

Music City Bowl: Northwestern -7.5
Arizona Bowl: New Mexico State +4
Cotton Bowl: Ohio State -7.5
TaxSlayer Bowl: Mississippi State +6.5
Liberty Bowl: Iowa State +3.5
Fiesta Bowl: Penn State +2
Orange Bowl: Miami (FL) +6

This first pick is a bit tough, because I do feel that Kentucky is underrated. But Northwestern might be underrated as well. I've got a very high confidence level on Northwestern straight up, but I've got a feeling that the only way they cover this spread is if it goes to triple overtime. Northwestern did make quite the habit of winning in overtime, after all.

New Mexico State is kind of a heart pick rather than a head pick. This is the program's first bowl in over half a century. To put into perspective how unlikely that is in this day and age, with their appearance in this bowl, the longest active bowl drought is not even a single decade (Kansas last played in a bowl 9 years ago--but somehow I doubt they mind, because 9 years ago was also the last time that their men's basketball team was unranked at any point in the season and even then they were still ranked when the season ended.) I feel like their fans are going to come out in droves and it'll be a pseudo-home game, and they'll respond with an overperformance.

I'm really glad it's USC in this bowl game, because they're Yankees enough that I don't feel bad about having to root for Ohio State. And yes, I just used a professional sports team as an adjective.

I have all four of these underdogs straight-up. Iowa State, I don't have a terribly high confidence level on... but seriously? Is a close Egg Bowl loss enough to erase the fact that Alabama needed a 4th quarter comeback to beat the Bulldogs? The fact that they beat the snot out of LSU? Louisville's only win over a team that entered bowl season better than 6-6 was a 44-17 win over Kentucky...a team that MSU beat 45-7. And I get 6.5 points here?

While it doesn't seem as bizarre as the TaxSlayer Bowl, the Orange Bowl seems weird, too. Okay, yes, the loss to Pittsburgh was bad, but Miami had a damn good season. That dominant win over Notre Dame, that was something else. USC couldn't beat Notre Dame; Georgia barely pulled it off. Those are conference champions. Wisconsin? Uh, well, they did beat a conference champion. Florida Atlantic, to be precise. Not exactly the same level of competition that Miami had to face. Gimme dat Turnover Chain.
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SmartMuffin posted...

Not sure if anyone was watching and not sure if it spread at all past my section, but I was at the Texas Bowl and I got a pretty successful MVP chant going for the punter!

That's awesome.
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Kentucky +7.5
New Mexico State +4
USC +7.5
Mississippi State +6.5
Iowa State +3.5
Washington -2
Miami (FL) +6

Uhh.

Too many points for Northwestern.

New Mexico State's gonna win 'cause it's a nice story whatever

I have USC winning straight up, nuff said

Someone's going to have to tell me if Mississippi State had a coaching change or a non-playing QB or something because otherwise lol what is this spread

Hey don't sleep on Iowa State remember how they were good once

I have absolutely no clue why Washington is favored, that makes zero sense, but I'm obviously going to pick them

Meh just gimme Miami and the points

Miss St.'s coach is now Florida's coach
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Ah. Hmmm

Nah, I'll stick with it. Louisville is too hard to trust and HC leaving isn't quite *as much* the kiss of death as people think it is when you've got a fairly strong program to begin with.

Oh ESPN does list Penn State as -2. That seems more right

Stanford covering the +2.5 lol

I'm really getting my ass kicked ever since the first two sets of picks. Not going well for me

Pac-12 is 1-5 and totally sucks

Round 5:
Music City Bowl: Kentucky +7.5
Arizona Bowl: Utah State -4
Cotton Bowl: Ohio State -7.5
TaxSlayer Bowl: Louisville -6.5
Liberty Bowl: Memphis -3.5
Fiesta Bowl: Penn State +2
Orange Bowl: Miami (FL) +6
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Wow. Just saw a graphic on ESPN that this is the first time since 1987 that USC was an underdog in a bowl game. I knew that they were a team that would generally be favored if it looked close on paper, but that took me by surprise.
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Paratroopa1 posted...

Oh ESPN does list Penn State as -2. That seems more right

Stanford covering the +2.5 lol

I'm really getting my ass kicked ever since the first two sets of picks. Not going well for me

Pac-12 is 1-5 and totally sucks

Oh. Huh, yeah, I misread that when putting up the lines. Well, I'll still take Penn State -2.

And pray that it doesn't wind up like the Stanford-TCU game, since I wasn't the only one to pick "Penn State +2".
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Music City Bowl: Northwestern -7.5
Arizona Bowl: Utah State -4
Cotton Bowl: USC +7.5
TaxSlayer Bowl: Mississippi State +6.5
Liberty Bowl: Iowa State +3.5
Fiesta Bowl: Penn State -2
Orange Bowl: Wisconsin -6
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Penn St +2 rather
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i think im late on northwestern, travelling currently
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Yeah, I am taking Penn St. at + or -2
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The Belk bowl continues to deliver
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