| Board List | |
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| Topic | Coronavirus Topic 14: Forced to Finish the Fight: The Finale: Final Mix Vol. 2 |
| masterplum 10/26/21 9:16:08 AM #152 | Im on the fence about a booster. My second Moderna vaccine kicked my ass and Ive read that is a decent indicator of how effective the vaccine was. --- |
| Topic | Magic the Gathering: Adventures in the Forgotten Realms |
| masterplum 10/23/21 8:56:41 AM #462 | Magic just isn't built for that. Burn would be instant tier 0 if it could guarantee two lands every game. Also could you choose what color the land was? That would kill the risk of playing multiple colors if your splash was always a land worst case. It's just 25 years too late for that change --- |
| Topic | Magic the Gathering: Adventures in the Forgotten Realms |
| masterplum 10/06/21 4:21:29 PM #435 | You have to consider worlds decks are going to meta against expected worlds decks. Not necessarily the best ladder decks --- |
| Topic | Magic the Gathering: Adventures in the Forgotten Realms |
| masterplum 10/05/21 7:30:28 AM #432 | Honestly Ive been playing a good amount of story book brawl which has taken over my arena time. Im just not a fan of the flavor and lack of paper magic doesnt help --- |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| masterplum 09/25/21 3:14:44 PM #361 | Forceful_Dragon posted... Bitcoin =/= all cryptocurrencies so you can't drop the environmentally friendly part. That excuse won't exist forever and frankly is living on borrowed time. Trust me. If BTC was made illegal all crypto would dive with it, at least temporarily. --- |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| masterplum 09/24/21 11:22:25 AM #348 | Lopen posted... Part of me feels like crypto becoming illegal in America is more likely now and those RIOT puts are looking more tempting The issue is I've thought that would be inevitable for... Looks at calendar 5 years now? And puts are just bleeding money until it happens. I could see a plausible scenario where we don't see any action until after the 2022 election --- |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| masterplum 09/24/21 11:12:37 AM #346 | All crypto illegal in China. Good for them. I don't think we get to green crypto unless btc crashes and dies --- |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| masterplum 09/20/21 8:58:57 AM #299 | Moonroof posted... People seem particularly invested in my investments. I just think your strategy is fairly nonsensical. You buy when stocks go up and sell when they go down. If you think Crypto is a good long term investment you absolutely should not sell at its lowest point in a month. Conversely if you think Crypto is a bad investment, you shouldn't be planning on buying back in --- |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| masterplum 09/20/21 8:47:30 AM #297 | Moonroof somehow annoying the crypto bulls and crypto bears in the same post --- |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| masterplum 09/20/21 8:44:20 AM #295 | My fubo $28 cover calls were exercised on Friday. Almost rolled but figured it didn't matter and I would reopen them today. That decision saved me a few hundred dollars... --- |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| masterplum 09/18/21 11:52:23 AM #287 | This is why I try to avoid crypto long term. At some point you are going to get political backlash against it https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2021/sep/17/waste-from-one-bitcoin-transaction-like-binning-two-iphones?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other --- |
| Topic | Magic the Gathering: Adventures in the Forgotten Realms |
| masterplum 09/17/21 9:54:26 AM #413 | I think red is the strongest color yeah, but I dont think its going to be as bad as forgotten realm because I dont think a color is unplayably bad. --- |
| Topic | Magic the Gathering: Adventures in the Forgotten Realms |
| masterplum 09/17/21 7:21:25 AM #410 | Did about 4 drafts with mixed success. Didnt tear it up like ikoria or strixhaven but didnt inexplicably lose like Kaldheim either. The good news for the format is I got my teeth kicked in both by a turn 4 concede vampire deck and an insanely unbeatable control deck. The format seems fairly balanced so far, with white potentially being weak. Favorite card so far was probably the Thing in the Egg card that flips after you cast 7 mana of spells. Early impression is the gameplay is solid. Still not a fan of the Arkham horror theme, but thats not a deal breaker --- |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| masterplum 09/16/21 9:10:38 PM #278 | greengravy294 posted... What's the issue with Macau outside of pandemic problems? China --- |
| Topic | Magic the Gathering: Adventures in the Forgotten Realms |
| masterplum 09/09/21 10:58:37 PM #401 | I've been watching LSV play Jeskai Control, and it feels just unstoppable against most decks. I like his anti-control sideboard package. I think Lightning Helix is just such a busted anti aggro card --- |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| masterplum 09/02/21 7:47:23 PM #198 | turbopuns3 posted... Came back here for the LK class action stuff. Got a letter today. No --- |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| masterplum 08/30/21 9:56:40 AM #165 | |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| masterplum 08/30/21 9:07:14 AM #164 | |
| Topic | Magic the Gathering: Adventures in the Forgotten Realms |
| masterplum 08/28/21 6:25:49 PM #383 | |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| masterplum 08/27/21 1:18:11 PM #151 | Nanis23 posted... I am going all-in on Baba It's a Chinese company and I don't trust China to not nationalize anything at any moment. I mean, that doesn't mean I wouldn't invest anything, but that is 100% of why I wouldn't throw everything at it --- |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| masterplum 08/26/21 2:17:24 PM #140 | |
| Topic | Magic the Gathering: Adventures in the Forgotten Realms |
| masterplum 08/26/21 7:48:09 AM #378 | redrocket posted... Is it just me or is Standard 2022 shaping up to be one of the slowest constructed formats in a long time? We are missing an entire set from it. Impossible to say until it comes out. Also we are losing the most OP standard set. Since what? Urzas Saga? Mirodin? --- |
| Topic | Magic the Gathering: Adventures in the Forgotten Realms |
| masterplum 08/25/21 8:36:09 PM #373 | ChaosTonyV4 posted... I just logged into Arena and they gave me like 10+ decks and hundreds of cards, but I dont know why? New player deck update --- |
| Topic | If anyone was wondering about my mafia championship qualifier game |
| masterplum 08/24/21 9:14:59 PM #78 | Dumb strategies like that are exactly the sort of thing I build setups around to exploit --- |
| Topic | Magic the Gathering: Adventures in the Forgotten Realms |
| masterplum 08/24/21 12:41:25 PM #359 | Also, people complaining about fortnight magic cards are the neckbeardiest of gatekeepers. They are reprints with fortnight art. Just don't buy them. --- |
| Topic | Magic the Gathering: Adventures in the Forgotten Realms |
| masterplum 08/24/21 12:38:09 PM #358 | The Mana Sword posted... New sets next year Seems like a pretty good mix of traditional magic and really weird stuff --- |
| Topic | Magic the Gathering: Adventures in the Forgotten Realms |
| masterplum 08/21/21 12:11:00 PM #351 | |
| Topic | Magic the Gathering: Adventures in the Forgotten Realms |
| masterplum 08/19/21 7:29:50 PM #345 | Gonti is definitely one of those cards that scales with the powerlevel of the format. I don't actually think Gonti in Kaladesh draft is amazing. It's good, but its not sky sovereign or anything --- |
| Topic | Magic the Gathering: Adventures in the Forgotten Realms |
| masterplum 08/19/21 4:23:18 PM #343 | ChaosTonyV4 posted... My draft looked good, but the first match I played, around turn 4 the guy proceeded to play a Barricade Breaker for the next 3 turns. Lots of removal --- |
| Topic | Magic the Gathering: Adventures in the Forgotten Realms |
| masterplum 08/16/21 12:19:05 PM #337 | My guess is the inistrad set will mix things up enough to not worry about it till then --- |
| Topic | Metroid Dread Report Vol. 4 |
| masterplum 08/14/21 2:22:50 PM #26 | Damn black space pirates. Could never beat them in my 15% hard mode run and my save was deleted by my brother at some point. Wouldn't have been as big of a pain if you didn't have to beat the last boss every time you retried --- |
| Topic | Magic the Gathering: Adventures in the Forgotten Realms |
| masterplum 08/13/21 9:07:59 AM #328 | Uh I think *thing being what I like means I like it* Is pretty much the standard on how anyone decides what they like --- |
| Topic | Magic the Gathering: Adventures in the Forgotten Realms |
| masterplum 08/13/21 7:57:32 AM #322 | ... have you ever actually cast sandwurm convergence? The card is unbeatable if you can cast it, and there are more than one 2 mana rampers in the set Comparing it to koma, the best limited card since dream trawler is a little disingenuous --- |
| Topic | Magic the Gathering: Adventures in the Forgotten Realms |
| masterplum 08/13/21 6:57:48 AM #320 | ChichiriMuyo posted... 7-1 R/B in my first Amonkhet draft. I feel like this draft format was made for me. It's aggro heaven with some neat little combos. I generally dont like sets that are misleading. For instance there is a ton of green ramp, so you would think the 6GG Sandwurm convergence would be an unbeatable bomb, but because the format is so aggressively slanted its only ok. Same with the sweet cycling payoffs. Adventures in the dark realm has the same problem where blue is so actively terrible that you should pass all but the biggest blue bombs, and all the cool dice rolling cards are pretty much traps. --- |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| masterplum 08/12/21 5:50:05 PM #44 | Oh of course there is risk. Its just lower risk betting against a stock then naked shorting or put options --- |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| masterplum 08/12/21 5:29:29 PM #42 | red sox 777 posted... Why would you consider Robinhood a meme stock rally? Not necessarily a meme stock, but similar rallies have happened in other trendy tech stocks. They spike and then gradually decline before spiking again. It's pretty consistent behavior for many of the overpriced tech stocks. Robinhood was valued more than Charles Schwabb. That's insanity. --- |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| masterplum 08/12/21 4:51:25 PM #38 | Forceful_Dragon posted... But then you still have to have enough cash on hand to pay for 100 shares when it's time to exercise, right? Nope. Your option just gets excercised and your shares get sold at the same time. You get the difference. You only need the initial cost of the option. Forceful_Dragon posted... And you have just as much risk associated with the price falling, right? Even if it doesn't fall out of strike range because of how far in the money it was, you are poised to gain much less. Correct. Its leveraged 6X in both directions, just like leveraging any other way. With the caveat that if it falls enough you get a little cushion because you start getting time value of the option back. Forceful_Dragon posted... I think I'm going to start simple and simply sell puts on stocks that I (A) can afford and (B) would not mine owning at a discounted price should the strike occur. This will 100% be less stressful and a good plan. --- |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| masterplum 08/12/21 4:48:52 PM #34 | Lopen posted... So this supposedly "not really" difference is lost. I have a lot of doubt that you have made a lot of money doing it because it doesn't seem like something that should work very often unless the stock price IMMEDIATELY drops down Worked on Gamestop, AMC, and would have worked on Robinhood if I didn't screw up. Like I'm not suggesting this is an everyday strategy, its specifically for meme stock type rallies --- |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| masterplum 08/12/21 4:44:14 PM #31 | greengravy294 posted... Isn't this a diagonal spread lol No, its not diagonal. It's a deep in the money calendar spread --- |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| masterplum 08/12/21 4:43:47 PM #30 | My $40 HOOD calls for example never got excercised even when HOOD was at $60 Maybe I just went too far in with $30 calls. I don't know --- |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| masterplum 08/12/21 4:41:59 PM #28 | Forceful_Dragon posted... But by selling 2 week calls in the money doesn't it stand to reason that those calls are always going to get exercised because they are already in the money? They usually don't get excercised. There are reasons to buy in the money calls where you want to hold them. For example I bought some deep in the money cracker barrel calls as a form of leverage. Instead of buying 15 shares for $2000, I bought a $2000 deep ITM call which means I'm getting 6X leverage back for my money --- |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| masterplum 08/12/21 4:37:57 PM #26 | Lopen posted... The point is Plum paid a considerably higher amount for the 2 month call than he received for selling the 2 week call Not really, which was the problem. They were nearly exactly the same which made buying and selling them illiquid. Usually people don't touch options that far in the money. --- |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| masterplum 08/12/21 4:33:30 PM #24 | Forceful_Dragon posted... Is this because there is some kind of premium with closing a position early? Or is there no premium and they could potentially lose versus waiting and exercising the call when the price is higher? Yes, which is why I got screwed over by illiquidity. I kept trying to get back into my position costing me a few hundred dollars each time. If I had just given up I wouldn't have lost much --- |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| masterplum 08/12/21 4:32:18 PM #23 | Forceful_Dragon posted... I feel like i need more information about what exactly is happening. So I want to clarify before I post this, this is total plum theory and its possible this isn't the optimal way of doing this. I've made a lot of money doing it.... most of the time. So here's the scenario: A meme stock shoots up from $30 to $60. You know historically meme stocks eventually fall back to earth as people lose interest so you want to bet on it going down. You have a few options
Why do you do this? Because options have two sources of value
The strategy is to buy long term and sell short term options where the value of #2 is pretty much zero. You can think of it this way, for an option way in the money, when the option expires is fairly irrelevant. It could expire now or in a month and the options is still going to be the price of the stock - the price of the option. BUT If the stock decreases sharply in price then the value of #2 starts increasing. Suddenly it starts to matter if the stock has time value left as the stock price inches closer to the option price. What this means is the spread between the option you bought and the option you sold starts to widen. In theory if the stock doesn't move much or goes the wrong direction, you will be out prety much nothing. You bought something that the option market valued to be nearly worthless, and it still is nearly worthless. But if it moves in the direction you think it is going to then you start making a lot of money as your worthless spreads start exponentially increasing in value. --- |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| masterplum 08/12/21 3:10:22 PM #17 | Lopen posted... The thing is I think they know that. It's not digestible by you and I but all transactions are public record to my knowledge and market makers can see vulnerable positions like that I somehow doubt anyone is singling out me trying to earn $500 a pop in liquidity. That seems not worth someones time. But who knows. --- |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| masterplum 08/12/21 2:36:03 PM #14 | Lopen posted... Yeah uhh I think a lot of that information is readily available if you have the right resources (ie you're a market maker). I don't believe it was a coincidence you were getting assigned. Eh, that's probably not true. In theory assignment should be good for me as it makes the intrinsic value of my short options zero. The issue was that it was so far out of the money the long options intrinsic value was also zero --- |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| masterplum 08/12/21 1:50:24 PM #12 | Lopen posted... Were you selling naked calls or puts or something? I'm not sure how getting assigned should matter. I had sold $30 calls that expired in 2 weeks and bought $30 calls that expired in 3 months, so the spread between them was nearly zero, under the play that as robinhood decresed in value the spread would widen as they gained time value of money But the short term calls kept getting assigned so I had to keep selling $30 calls which were extremely illiguid I should have just closed the position entirely and moved into $40 calls instead (which is what half of my calls were) but I kept thinking Surely it wouldn't happen again. No, it happened 4 days in a row. So every time it happened I got crushed by the bid ask spread. After the third time I even got a phone call from TDAmeritrade telling me I needed to fix my position. --- |
| Topic | Stock Topic 32 |
| masterplum 08/12/21 1:43:14 PM #9 | I'm actually really annoyed at my stock plays on HOOD I kept getting assigned and margin called which made me try to buy back into the position. I ended up losing several thousand dollars on liguidity issues. And I was right about my move, I've lost $4000 in liguidity and made $1500 in being correct about the moves. If the liguidity problems didn't happen I would be up big instead of down big. #BlogFaqs --- |
| Topic | Politics Containment Topic 376: Pigs in Space |
| masterplum 08/12/21 1:35:20 PM #476 | Apparently thinking that politicians other than republicans make shady stock purchases is "both sidsing" it nowadays. Ok then. --- |
| Topic | Politics Containment Topic 376: Pigs in Space |
| masterplum 08/12/21 1:33:25 PM #475 | Dancedreamer posted... Where did I say it was ONLY Republicans? Weird defense. Dancedreamer posted... It'd honestly be MORE shocking if this were a harmless stock purchase because Republicans are just that much pieces of s***. --- |
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