Lurker > Forceful_Dragon

Lopen posted...

If Ulti is scum he knows Peaf's flip what are you even talking about

idk maybe it's a double bluff, but at the time it felt like Ulti knew peaf would flip town and wanted to gain town points for having that read.

Which is why it feels more like a wrong town read than a scum ploy. But I guess WIFOM can always go a level deeper.

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

Or red just didn't his thing and FD accept but other than that

red has posted 5x so far, but hasn't said much yet.

.

Then again you haven't said much either. You criticized Ulti's POE:

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

I mean come on if you're going to say nothing atleast just send random shit to your room mate like pictures of pokemon

.But THIS was all you gave us:

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

Going to be honest have more of a solid town core than any scum reads it just be a poe basically

You didn't even clarify who was in the town core, just that you had one. Is it the same people lopen said? In one of your first posts you said you think MZero is town, but not why you think MZero is town. Was it something he said during your date? Can you post receipts?

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

Actually I'll just ask Ulti what is this about?

Honestly this is the best point in favor of Ulti being town, not the reverse. It would be SUCH a weird move to do as scum if you knew a scum flip was incoming. Ulti would have looked a lot worse today if Peaf flipped town power.

UltimaterializerX posted...

FD predicting our dates is really neat. Thats a great post.

Well now I feel bad for pressing X to doubt while you said something nice to me.

But you also laid on the sweetness a bit last game and you turned out to be scum.

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

Ulti being nice and not caring about the game state is just showing how Wholesome Ulti is, talked to Ulti outside the games a bit and I mean this is actually Not alignment indicative.

Press X to Doubt.

.

Lopen posted...

So who does everyone think the scum are and why

If we're ruling out those of us who more or less directly got Peaf killed then POE dictates it's 2 of:
Mzero, Isquen, Ulti, Corrik, Red, Sultan, Sir Chris

4 of those are players who took the easy road yesterday and paired at the very beginning and never looked back, so it might just be 2 out of Mzero, Ulti, Red, Sultan.

But I'm not convinced Chris was the NK target and for that I'd keep him in consideration.

And Isquen, it's not as though he decided to be unpaired near the end of the day and took a risk to shake things up. That was a byproduct of a solo breakup that you initiated 5 minutes before dates locked.

And even though he didn't make an early pair, Corrik still more or less took the easy way out by only making 1 dating action all day and doing it near the end when there were multiple people looking for a life raft. But it was still a bold assumption to make that he wouldn't have just been locked out prior to the final 6 hours.

So I might even say corrik looks the most towny to me of those 7. Red looks a bit better after the logs ulti posted, but I'd still rather hear more from the man himself. He needs to step it up today if he doesn't want me to dump him :D

Isquen posted...

Can confirm that. Corrik said 7 words total all night, in this order.

Okay - wait what - nothing is bothering me.

Not that it wasn't obvious, but I'd like to note that I 1000% called that when Kirby asked how I thought the other pairs were getting on and what we might hear from them.

Kirby:

Any pairs you're looking forward to hearing from come daybreak? I'm curious to see what MZero and Sultan have been discussing and what they think of each other. I'm also curious about Death and Chris and whether they even end up having much conversation

FD:

I expect a pair like isquen and Corrik will have barely said a word to each other.

I do have high hopes for a Death / Chris conversation, but likely they will be online at different times most of the day so it would be a lot of taking turns.

Maybe the most new perspective will come from red/Ulti. If he's town red should know he gets targeted sometimes and he should actually read the day rather than just light skimming or whatever it was he did day 1. That way even if he dies his roommate will still be alive to provide his perspective to others.

It's interesting to KNOW that only 1 person can die each night. I don't expect I'll be killed after all the sus I got from Lopen, but it's comforting to know that if I did you will be alive so my conclusions can still be shared.

Then again if red dies and Ulti is scum he could hit us with 'red was barely around and didn't say much'

Isquen posted...

Hard to kill someone without a killing action

Difficult, but not impossible if you apply yourself!

Lopen posted...

Like what are the odds Death got iced for this post (t3p202) and it had nothing to do with his bodyguarding

Or what if Chris subtly figured out he was power during their chat in concert with that post

Maybe but Chris wouldn't have known death could ONLY protect himself unless death said something. So that would be a heck of a happy coincidence to also give the appearance that Chris was the NK target.

I'm not sure when Kirby will be around, but Death was actually his #1 suspect last night (ahead if red, isquen and Chris). So we'll see how he feels about the flip.

Yes

Lopen posted...

Also because common sense

lol yeah if you had 4 scum you could just claim scum day 1 and take turns dating each other.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Wait how do we know its 3v12?

Because SOME OF US read the rules.

My third crackpot theory trying to explain it was that it was all a plan by Lea, who is known for over the top scum bussing.

And if the scum team were exactly Lea/JC/Peaf then all 3 of them put themselves on the chopping block at end of day knowing that they might be trading 1 to make them other 2 look good by creating a situation that scum would "never" do.

I've more or less discounted that one, but I was scraping the barrel trying to make sense of it. Especially with the semi-open setup knowing it's 3 vs 12 with no extra kills.

Lopen posted...

The only reason I don't clear dumey for it is it makes a lot more sense for Peaf to break as a gambit to help clear Dumey if it fails than for Peaf to not just feel content to afk with his chained up town soul mate.

I had the opposite impression and felt like Dumey was extra full cleared by how things ended, but your version makes sense too in a way.

And maybe Dumey/Peaf were both feeling the pressure of being called out for being one of the early pairs? But that same pressure was being thrown at red/Ulti and Sultan/Mzero and neither of them flinched.

They could have just as easily pretended to not be around and sidestep all the risk and deal with the leftover suspicion today.

Oh, I know Ulti can't pair with red again, but I'm not going to let red find someone else to sit comfortably with for 47 hours.

Red's date with me is NOT safe and will be ended at any time I see fit if he doesn't contribute. Well, at any time i see fit starting 1 hour from now >_>

Lopen posted...

Lea had a theory about that

The idea she had was that Peaf wanted to townclear himself by moving late and got hosed by you breaking up with me at the wrong moment

I think he was aiming to leave JC out to dry then once me and you entered the market there were a ton more options and he didn't

I guess? Honestly that would be a hilarious side effect of what I was going for. I was just leaving work at that point and I saw that there were were a handful of unpaired people and nearly ALL of them had just sent a request to kirby. Meanwhile I already had a date request from kirby AND a breakup request from you sitting in my pocket. I didn't fully know what the consequences would be, but I knew I could simultaneously steal the kirby date and most likely ruin someone's plan even if I wasn't sure who.

The irony is that I felt much worse about Kirby after peaf flipped scum, since a scum Kirby is one of the only things that should have made Peaf breaking up with Dumey seem like a good idea. But I wouldn't realize that until after the day was over :shrug:

MZero posted...

First thought seeing the flip was Chris is scum and they killed death to make him look good, but they likely didn't know his role, unless death claimed or Chris is a scum role cop who automatically scans whoever he shares a room with or something

Occulam's razor says Chris is town though, although Sultan and I were both leaning scum on him

Definitely need Chris to clue us in on what they talked about. I would have to assume that death would NOT have given away or even hinted at his role to chris, but it's also possible death was just the primary target of the night kill.

Now unfortunately for us Death wasn't around for the final hours of the day after his date with chris was confirmed, so we don't have any posts from him from those final 2 hours of date swapping. We'll have to trust in chris to accurately relay what Death thought, assuming they discussed it.

If Chris is town I would sooner believe chris was the NK, but it's not unbelievable to think death would be targeted instead.
If Chris is scum then death being selected as the target could have been a result of how the date was going.

UltimaterializerX posted...

You and Justin are 100% lock town. Reds logic, not mine, but I agree with it.

Basically all 3 of you two + Peaf have to be scum and a town/scum pair with you and Justin isnt possible, and that logic doesnt track. Ergo, town.

I'll wait for red's explanation then because I don't track that.

I agree that Dumey is town, I don't see any universe where Peaf leaves a scum/scum pair with so little time left in the day for them both to line up something new. I started the evening by trying to determine the answer why Peaf confirmed his breakup with Dumey. I have a few theories, but none of them perfectly make sense with the way the day ended and ultimately had to conclude that Peaf's decision to break his pairing was most likely something he decided to do alone and not in consultation with scummates.

The first thing Peaf did was throw a request at Kirby "Cause i can be your hero baby". It could simply be that one of the unpaired individuals at that moment was scum. At that moment it was just Kirby, JC and Lea. So it was either to pair with Kirby, who was the presumptive day 1 death at that point, or to pair with either JC or Lea after being rejected by Kirby. Kirby, to his credit did not respond to Peaf's pair request and was instead in the process of Pairing with Lea before I sniped the date using the open request he'd sent to me hours earlier. It's still possible that makes Kirby scum that Peaf was trying to save, but again they were clearly not operating from the same playbook if that's the case. So then maybe just Peaf badly misreading his odds of pairing with Kirby and thinking he'll look more towny for being willing to die to save a town kirby.

But it's all very messy from a logical perspective. But the fact that Peaf's first order of business was attempting to save Kirby meant I trusted him quite a bit less last night that I otherwise might have.

Here is the updated grid from day 1:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/8/855ed8d4.png

But I realized that this format is fairly limiting. It's good for seeing where things currently stand, but doesn't reveal what happened in cases where status were overwritten multiple times. Such as Lopen sending invites, rescinding them and then sending again to the same people. So instead I put together this:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/5/5653d1c7.png

.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/c/ceaceaf6.png

I split the list in half because otherwise I think it would be too wide to view well on gamefaqs. This version still doesn't provide all of the context. You have have people like Corrik who only took 1 action, but did it at the very end of the day and people like MZero who only took 1 action, but did it at the very beginning of the day. So you still have to generally remember the events that occurred to give context to the dating actions. But as near as I can tell this should be an accurate representation of every dating action each person initiated. I added the purple color to distinguish mutual breakups from the non mutual ones.

UltimaterializerX posted...

##Date: Isquen

Lets get you to a day 3 for once, my friend.

You are the reason Red didn't have to contribute anything to day 1 I'll be pissed at both you and Isquen if we see a repeat performance day 2.

even if they don't give him immunity (and how can they?) they are giving him 2 free months and an excuse to protest something else if it fails.

The court agreed to expedite the case and hear arguments the week of April 22.

"expedite"

still 8 damn weeks away.

I'm glad we're not nominating "uncommitted". I don't think they could win the national election.

UltimaterializerX posted...

I don't think scum makes a fake claim that moronic. No equity in it. It's also a completely and thoroughly impossible role for scum to fake on night 1.

Peaf should live.

I think I technically have a breakup request from Kirby when he thought he was pairing with Lea, but I feel better about Kirby than Peaf so that's not an option I feel like exercising.

The fact that it targets a ROOM rather than a specific player actually makes it more believable to me. But I'm also having trouble figuring out what sort of scum role is countered.

It would make more sense if instead you found out if anyone LEFT the room. That could potentially locate scum though it would also register a false positive on any town power.

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]


To be clear I don't think your breakup was necessary, or that it even occurred at all. Unless I missed something I already had a pending breakup request from Lopen and still had a pending date request from Kirby.

I missed the immediate aftermath of the grenade I threw because I had to go pick up my mom for our weekly hang. Seems like Peaf is in the cold which I think I'm fine with. Might have preferred Dumey, but alas.

Courtesy heads up to @Lopen that he's on the market again

...

I know I said I was going to wait for two early pairs to break, but I see an option for both comedy and chaos so I'm taking it

##Breakup: Lopen
##Date: Kirby

Tbh if no more pairs are gonna break then I'd prefer to see Lea and Kirby partner and see what happens between the other 3. I feel like that would yield some solid info

Lopen posted...

I'm slightly weirded out that both JC and Peaf didn't just breakup but immediately dated Kirby

...

There's no way though, right? It can't be that simple?

Not to mention a scum Kirby just ignores you instead of breaking with me last night. Especially after multiple people told me they were sus of Kirby and I refused to break.

Trouble in paradise? I wasn't crazy about either half of the Dumey/Peaf pairing so maybe they came to the same conclusions about each other.

Wow, two pairs including one early pairs are broken.

One more early pair break and I'll put Lopen and myself back on the market as well.

That's not really something we can react to until it amounts to anything. Just confused off as an empty gesture unless you are both online.

I see your suggestion Lopen and if my other conditions get met I'll follow suit.

I also have a migraine that's been building for a couple hours now so I'm leaving work a bit early today. Hopefully I don't throw up on my drive home

PeaceFrog posted...

Going to be an interesting night for you two

Not necessarily. Are you and Dumey interested in my plan?

Forceful_Dragon posted...

I would be willing to agree to a breakup with Lopen but only if the following conditions are met:

-At least 3 other teams commit to breaking up as well.

-At least two of those 3+ are from the pairs that formed in topic 1 (Red/Ulti, Peaf/Dumey, Sultan/MZero)

I would be willing to agree to a breakup with Lopen but only if the following conditions are met:

-At least 3 other teams commit to breaking up as well.

-At least two of those 3+ are from the pairs that formed in topic 1 (Red/Ulti, Peaf/Dumey, Sultan/MZero)

Nothing else will be juicy enough to risk my security. Lopen would have to agree too of course.

Didn't feel like a risk unless Corrik/isquen are exactly both scum. Either one of them should want to date you over the other. If they allowed you to die they would just both die on day 2/3 and that's two scum down.

Lopen posted...

Anyone is able to attempt to break up

How much do you townread Kirby everyone

51%

It was higher before he broke up with me

Kirby321 posted...

Also I totally forgot you and Chris are still unpaired.

Not anymore. They paired up when Chris checked in.

Lopen posted...

Wow you'd have dated Kirby over me shameful

If I happened to refresh after 127 and before 128? 100% without a doubt. Would have taken it without seeing your invitation.

If I'd simply registered both invitations instead of only seeing yours? I'm honestly not sure. I don't want either of you dying and he seems more vulnerable than you would have been.

Zzz, I didn't even see Kirby's request in 127, refreshed and saw Lopen's and snap accepted.

I think I'd still prefer Kirby live over one of Corrik or Isquen, but if he doesn't then I hope I'm wrong.

Lopen posted...

##Date: FD

##Date: Lopen

I'll take any life raft at this point. I look forward to our night together.

SirChris posted...

Why is fd super scummy now

I'm not? Lopen set his sights on me, but he's simply wrong.

htaeD posted...

I am assuming you are coming back before deadline?

Yes I'll be around sporadically.

Well no one else even seems to be around and my meetings are starting so I'll leave it to you to make the call.

##Date: Death

htaeD posted...

And at this rate if Corrik refuses FD, I dont think I will mind dating FD.
Dont know if I can read him well tho, or vice versa.

I don't have a strong read on you currently and I have a lot of paranoia this game about being personally responsible for scum surviving. But I'm reaching the point where self preservation is starting to override that worry.

htaeD posted...

FD kinda getting ahead of where I wanted to go with me basically not understanding why Kirby undated It seems like he cared more to get some breakups in general

I can kinda see it as vanilla nonchalance, but part of me sees it as leading by example to try to start a cascading pattern of breakups?

But I don't know if that's more likely beneficial as town or scum to kick off.

Corrik7 posted...

That sounds nice.

Then shall we? I have a quick moment right now on a break, otherwise I'll be back in a short while.

.

Kirby321 posted...

If Corrik and FD pair up, that leaves me, Death, and Chris.

That's honestly way more interesting of a final three, even if it'll very likely mean I'll end up eating dirt. Just don't squander it. The legacy I leave you.

I guess I'm so not understanding our break up. I town read you, you town read me, we didn't rush to pair up like the first 3 pairs, we didn't idle/coast after pairing. You just listened to Lopen for "reasons"?

.

EDumey posted...

(Assuming FD saves Corrik. FD could still shake things up here as well. I think he's waiting for Chris to come back before making any final decisions)

While it's true that I'd have liked to hear from Chris I wasn't "waiting" for anything. This is my first chance to check the topic in two hours and my next chance might not be for several more.

Enchantress posted...

We've got three hours until we become common law

Tbh there are several existing pairs that I think deserve a shakeup before we hit that threshold, but I'm starting to feel like that's not gonna happen.

Kirby321 posted...

I don't really know who is scum just yet, but I'm still okay with letting Red die, and I'm sad Ulti just can't let him go.

And that's the biggest one of them.

.

But that's my break done, I'll continue to do what I can but I have meetings soon. Feel free to send me an invite Kirby, I might still rather you survive than others even though you dumped me. My irl wife and I spent a couple years a part during our relationship and still found our way back together, crazier things have happened

I'm awake and at the office, but things are looking slammed so my ability to keep up for the next 8 hours will be limited.

Still hoping Chris or Ulti will come through for me.

Otherwise I'm warming up to the idea of being the kind of date Corrik is looking for tonight. We could Netflix and chill, or just chill

MZero posted...

at the end of day, not right now

unless death meant that Chris is busy for the rest of Day 1

Regardless of how long he's busy, I don't see how Chris being 'left out in the cold' means anything other than his death. Maybe I'm misunderstanding something.