Lurker > Crescent-Moon

Wait I'm wrong. Isquen only got off late to get Scare off of -1. You're the only one who unvoted him because of his claim.

You and Isquen both got off, and quickly got back on, but you got back on before him.

MZero was the only one in the initial rush not to unvote.

I just looked at the votals.

MZero
Isquen
Scare

Scare was at 3 votes before the end of page 1.

You were the third person on Scare.

Isquen was second, actually.

MikeTavish posted...

All I know for certain at this juncture is if you kill me you'll be going into a 3-2 day and I really don't like our odds if that happens.

For all we know, you're faking a scan on Isquen to try to keep him alive today because you think he's scum.

He has three posts in the past 31 hours.

What is this well thing you're talking about?

As someone who's never watched the show and only seen occasional clips, it's gonna be hard to sell it without the right Bender voice.

MikeTavish posted...

If we lose because people decide to lynch TWO town BPs in one game (Especially when I clearly haven't lied about literally anything) I'm gonna scream. If I were faking cop scans, faking BP, faking third party, this whole time my whole web of lies would have come crashing down a long time ago.

Again, there's a reason I think you chose not to scan me to confirm my role, and I think it's because you're scum. Scum obviously wants to get rid of a BP Scanner.

Um.

You gladiatored town BP and got it lynched.

MZero posted...

I still like lynching Mike today but could get behind an Isquen lynch. Not interested in lynching anyone else right now

I swear if we lose because no one wants to lynch a 3rd party claim i'm gonna scream lol

I'm still alright with a Mike lynch. I get Red's point, but he's still not town, and leashing third party almost always backfires.

New Mexico and Dallas are at odds, I see.

What reason is he supposed to give?

But anyway regardless of who we decide to lynch today for the love of anything don't hammer so I can get this useless power out.

Isquen accused me of faking having it and it really just came off as desperate. Let's put this sham of a meta to bed.

Lufia?

2 is the only good game in that series, and the later games are generally considered somehow even gradually worse than 1.

Leafeon13N posted...

I'm definitely awake many hours later than i should be at this point.

Isn't it... Almost 9am for you? Isn't this early?

I just had a thought about information. Speaking of Mike's "scans"

If we lynched Isquen and got a flip that clearly isn't godfather-ish, we immediately know Mike is making them up.

Leafeon13N posted...

If you want to make the case Mike is just scum feel free, its possible. But I would like to hear how you justify his and his partners day 2 playing out because i dont see it right now.

I don't believe Mike is "scum" and I don't believe there's much of an argument for it.

I wouldn't say it's strictly impossible, but it's very unlikely.

Leafeon13N posted...

This is why picking pairs is more important today.

We have a pair we actually somehow end up agreeing on. Mike says he scanned the other one as town.

What do we do?

Though yes, I do get the point. We're more likely to learn something from a scum lynch.

Leafeon13N posted...

That is simply not true. 2v3 is very dangerous.

Both scenarios are dangerous.

Say we lynch Isquen or Tidus, they flip scum.

Mike comes in with a "scum scan" tomorrow.

What do we do?

Leafeon13N posted...

Why intentionally put us in a 2v3 scenario where we dont gain information on who the 2 are with the prior lynch.

Because it's still better than 1v1v3 with a third party claimed scanner we can't trust to side with town.

At least in 2v3, we know what we're dealing with.

Leafeon13N posted...

Again, survivor was probably the wrong word to use. You are looking at it wrong. No one should be looking to lynch third party in our current scenario.

All you've really done is make even more of a case of why we can't trust Mike or anything he says or claims to have scanned.

Leafeon13N posted...

Basically you are arguing for an SK like endgane scenario when there is no evidence of SK.

And you're arguing a survivor that doesn't fear nightkills wouldn't try to win the game as quickly as possible.

Leafeon13N posted...

Survivor might be the wrong word, but his motivation in that scenario is his biggest risk of losing is us lynching him. If he is bulletproof he has no reason to fear scum and thus has the best outcome by simply playing as town.

The biggest risk of losing is being lynched.

So as Survivor, the best way to win would be to get a mislynch as fast as possible before the third party fear gets him killed.

Leafeon13N posted...

Basically. As claimed hes a third party survivor that guarantees scum 1 mislynch.

That essentially makes the scumteam 3 of 12. Which makes some sense.

If Mike is specifically survivor, he has no motivation to try to lynch scum today.

Because he would effectively be a third scum and would win on any mislynch.

But really, what you're basically saying with that is Mike in that scenario will effectively give up on trying to win and instead help us lynch scum.

After all Mike has been through, that's what's crazy.

Leafeon13N posted...

Motivation for this is just tinfoil hatting.

How is this tinfoil hatting? Mike is an autolynch if all the scum are gone, and the game is still going.

Leafeon13N posted...

Again, assuming hes some sort of killing role seems misguided, your planning for him playing for an endgame scenario that doesn't exist.

If he dies and flips third party we got to 2-3 and that isn't a better situation than we are in today.

Mike is going to be autolynched in an endgame scenario, and he knows it. Mike has no reason to help us reach a situation where all the scum are dead in the final 3/4.

So I've been doing this breakdown in my head:

Say we lynch a scum

We have 1v1v3.

Mike actively sides with scum and fakes a scan to get a mislynch.

Now we're 1v1v1 and a BP third party. We're screwed.

Leafeon13N posted...

Hes not SK is something we could reasonably guess. Hell if we are going to tinfoil plum could be actual SK.

(We dont have an SK, I would wager)

If Plum is SK that's been roleblock spammed that would be funny.

But it's more of a "letting 3rd parties stay around usually ends up doing a lot of harm" thing.

Say we lynch Isquen or Tidus today and we hit scum. Mike knows that he's getting autolynched in an endgame scenario.

Mike has no motive to side with town the next day. He's claimed to have scanning powers and he's going to be aiming for a mislynch. What stops him from landing a "convenient scan" that leads to a mislynch?

But really I kind of feel like leaving Mike alive is "leashing the SK" and that almost never goes well.

Leafeon13N posted...

Just curious, why do you trust mzero so much?

Because one thing hanging over our heads is plum still claiming an unspecified power.

I trust him more than Mike, though I dislike that he didn't STC with you, and only claimed after. This made the information he claimed easy to fake.

I can see a scenario where Scare just rolls over and dies for him after MZero's vote leads to him quickly but unexpectedly leads him to -2. MZero being scum is possible.

But, Mike being not-town is highly probable, and if Mike flipped scum (though I wouldn't expect this), MZero is virtually town confirmed.

Wait no, because that would make two scum that beat cop. The point is I think there's a scum who beats something else.

If Mike even is cop.

Which he probably isn't.

My head hurts.

Well actually Isquen would be the one who beats cop in that scenario what am I smoking.

Leafeon13N posted...

This just doesn't seem rational, tbh.

Rationality doesn't apply to this game. That's the problem.

Leafeon13N posted...

Let me put this in your perspective based on what you've said.

You think mzero is town. By extension that makes me town. You probably think plum is town due to chris scan, i think this is fair.

That leaves mike/tidus/isquen.

So you are saying you want to lynch from this pool to end the game, yes?

Nope. If you're town, you're being too narrow. There's two things that are glaring right now:

We don't know if third party Mike is actually a cop. So, we don't know if a cop even exists.

I think even if Mike got cop powers from sacrificing Ulti, there's a solid chance scum has another role that can trick a scanner claim, aside from "I get destroyed by flavor scanner" Scare.

Scare beats cop (that may not exist), loses to flavor scanner.

Someone else beats flavor scanner or motion detector, loses to cop (that may not exist).

That's what I'm paranoid about. Tidus/Isquen seems FAR too easy to be correct.

Leafeon13N posted...

Basically, crescent you have just made the decision to not lynch Mike.

So who do you think the two scum are?

If we believe all the power that's claimed, and believe all the scans, it has to be Isquen and Tidus, but that doesn't feel right at all.

There is too much claimed town power for the game to be as simple as "lynch the vanilla claims". It seems to be universally agreed on that it's a 3-person scumteam, which is under that "25%-33%" threshhold. Death being the only vanilla means the game is either imbalanced very poorly, or something is "off" and we've yet to see through it.

I kind of don't believe Mike's even a scanner. My biggest worry there is Mike is 3P and pulls a kill out of his ass at endgame.

Leafeon13N posted...

If you want to lynch Mike I would like to hear the case on why his scum partners voted and played day 2 the way they did.

Mike is much more likely to be 3P than scum, but I think he has easily the highest chance of being not-town, because Mike and MZero cannot both be town together, and I think MZero is town.

We need to hit not-town today. Going for our highest probability of doing that is the correct play.

Oh. That's what I get for not looking into it.

That means what Tidus did was probably based on Ulti still calling me scum at the time, which suggests at least up until that point Chris still probably thought I was.

Leafeon13N posted...

We could throw up another post of chris calling isquen town from way earlier for that matter(i have had this one in memory because it was shared sentiment with me).

This happened on day 1, I believe. I had forgotten about both of these until they were just brought back up.

Day 2 started with Chris and Ulti calling me scum. Ulti called me town later in the day, and Chris stopped talking about me after like, page 3 or 4, and never spoke about me again, including on day 3.

I kind of feel like that post about Tidus has nothing to do with suspicion of me, but I don't remember what it was about, and it's probably not worth looking into.

DoomTheGyarados posted... Keep tidus safe at all costs he is my favorite.

Post 262 of topic 2.

Leafeon13N posted...

Where are we getting that Chris was ok with him?

Did a quick scan of yesterday and didn't see much.

He did this on day 2.

Said something like "Tidus is my favorite keep him alive" fairly late in the day.

TidusOfTheX posted...

I can't answer that first part clearly without looking more sus, so let's just say... it's because other people are more sus and more likely to be scum

you look pretty sus right now, along with Isquen, Mzero playing his role well is a good point, but why the sudden switch from not playing his role well, to playing his role well? He is still on my sus list, but lower now. Crescent seems fine. I am still not sure about Red. Nothing changed with what I think of plum.

MZero played this like total crap if he was just a commuter and not a commuter scanner.

Leafeon13N posted...

Anyway. Basic gameplay chain here...the only scenario in which I am scum necessitates mzero being scum.

From an outside perspective looking at me is just atrocious play.

I could be town or scum if mzero is scum but if I am scum it would require mzero to be scum at this point.

Unless you think mother porxie is scum and dont want to do the most basic of flavor research to show that this is literally one of the most ridiculous things brought up this game.

*Puts on tin foil hat*

MZero is probably town, which leaves us with this:

For Plum to be scum, scum would need to have a role that can trick a motion detector.

For Red to be scum, scum would need to have a role that can trick flavor cop.

Given how weak a "godfather" Scare was, it's possible.

But it's not a rabbit hole to go down right now.

Leafeon13N posted...

We've literally spent 2 expansions healing the tempered with porxies spat out by mother porxie. And tempering has been something we hadn't been able to fix since the launch of the game

I still have 0 idea what tempering is or who/what would even temper people in the first place.

Someone mentioned something about "primals" earlier, and I asked about that, but no one responded to me.

So I sort-of-slept sort-of-hallucinated on it and I think I owe MZero an apology.

If he's town, he's actually played his role pretty damned well. Disappearing night 1 WIFOMs everyone, and then he comes back with a scan night 2 that no one sees coming, and puts potential fear into the scumteam that he can disappear again.

I'm willing to say in all likelihood that MZero is town. MZero being town means Mike can't be. This means we don't know if Mike's "scans" are even real in the first place.

Isquen suddenly accusing me of claiming a power I don't have is cute... And desperate. Isquen has gotten significantly more hostile towards me since I suggested he played to bait a scan. Regardless, I really can't find any town motive to anything he's done regarding his claim. All we need to do is make sure there's no hammer today and I can get this thing off. Not that it's actually going to achieve anything, but.... Onto the next point.

Isquen posted... Mzero, really, with the "flavor scan" thing? What's next, the dead banana twins walk out of plum's locked house because plum has corpse scanning that also gets to revive on scan?

...that actually sounds like an Emet-Selch ability and Mzero *did* die night one. Which would make Mzero scum aligned too.

Isquen also tried to flavor meta MZero as scum. This was before Mike even voted for MZero, and Isquen completely dropped the point once he realized the lynch wasn't going to fly.

For the record, I think we have to lynch Mike here, because he's the most certain "not-town" on the board, but I'd be genuinely surprised if Isquen was town.

But basically, I think it's hard to WIFOM the actions of a scum who effectively rolled over and died, only to pretend to try near the end of the day.

MZero posted...

It is kinda interesting that that's about all Scare did yesterday

Fastbreak posted... I'm not home.

I don't know if I would have done much more if I was home though considering no one has actually tried to engage with me, they're just metaing my flavor

Crescent-Moon posted...

Actually I'd say you're not engaging with anyone else, and your flavor claim is not why people are voting you.

This was just your 4th post since your claim. You have presented no arguments for lynching anyone else, nothing substantial as to why we should think you are town, and the day has pretty much died as a result.

MZero posted...

Scare why did you say "looks like mass" when you were the only one being pressured to claim and no one was suggesting mass

This was after the first time Scare complained he was only being lynched on flavor and no one was talking with him.

Scare didn't post again for 15 hours after this.

Comes back with

ScareChan posted... hello

Useless. And it gets ignored.

Then Fastbreak posted... Hello again

About an hour and a half later. Chris says hi, Mike immediately engages, and Scare actually responds this time, but doesn't engage with anyone but Mike.

This is about sums up Scare.

Annnnd moving it to wordpad made that ugly as hell wow.

MikeTavish posted...

Hi Scare, what do you think about all the claims? Surely you realize after all of this that you coming in and saying nothing but "hello" just makes you look worse?

Fastbreak posted...

It took two hellos to get people to respond. I mentioned yesterday no one has actually engaged me this proves that point that no one actually cares to read me, they would rather make up their own story based on my role

MikeTavish posted...

What do you think of Chris and Isquen claiming the exact same power?

ScareChan posted...

If scum knew what was going on already Chris could have got out in front of it and claimed it first looking for more confusion. I'm wary of Chris being alive this long

that said Isquen hasn't really stood out to me. He seems to always come around late and respond to something just enough to seem town, but not actually do anything.

MikeTavish posted...

So did you miss my inno scan on Chris or are you ignoring that entirely?

ScareChan posted...

Your scan means less than nothing to me. You're a third party that magically got a scan by killing town, none of that jives

MikeTavish posted...

Fair enough. Thank you for actually responding to some things.

ScareChan posted...

##Vote: Mike

May as well have a vote down

Convenient that Ulti never came around to say anything, except for things that were easily bullshitable

nice play Mike

This is the full exchange, so you don't have to look it up later.

Close enough.

Chris claimed that someone targeted Plum night 1, no one has claimed it, and Plum claimed RBed that night.

I can't take anything that happened day end of day 3 seriously when a few of us tried to engage with Scare and he barely did anything.

MZero posted...

Another interesting thing to note is that no one has really tried to lynch Mike since day 2 when it would be very easy for scum to take a hard "lynch all 3rd parties" stance and avoid doing anything

Mike/Isquen scum team and they faked the scan to clear him? And they killed Chris to make Mike's scan look more believable? Hmmmm

In fairness, Scare was -2 almost as soon as yesterday started, and he rolled over and died. Nothing really happened yesterday.