| Board List | |
|---|---|
| Topic | Stock Topic 33 |
| Lopen 10/04/21 3:02:56 PM #33 | red sox 777 posted... You just can't change the fact that it's negative EV. For instance, you can completely eliminate risk at roulette by betting an equal amount on every single number, including the zeroes. Then you will have a guaranteed loss of a fixed amount each spin. Of course you probably aren't interested in a small guaranteed loss every spin, but you could have that if you wanted. My point is I think that his yolo moves are -EV given his taste for risk and patience to hold if they don't immediately pan out. Calling them betting on black is not accurate to the risk profile BUT for instance we could say they were doing something like 20% on ODD 20% on 13-24 20% on BLACK 20% on 1-18 Remaining 20% split evenly with equal amounts into each number. Then gloating when he hits Black 13 and Black 17 on two spins (despite the play being -EV you make 60% + 40% + 40% + 40% + ~20% = a bit less than 200% on each of those) But say he hit Red 32 and Red 18 instead on those two spins he would not go to zero despite coming close to being completely off, but he would lose a significant amount of money. He'd have 0% + 10% + 0% + 10% + 20% or about 40% of original investment. I don't know the exact spread but you get what I'm saying. It can be -EV and still appear to work if you start hot. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 33 |
| Lopen 10/04/21 2:11:15 PM #32 | That's my whole point of this tirade yeah Selling puts that timidly with such huge amounts of cash just seems like lose-lose to me. Picking a further out of the money put lowers risk but then putting down triple the cash more than offsets the lowered risk. Either sell less puts and hold cash to sink into a play when the market gives you an opportunity (or average down on sold puts when assigned) or sell puts on more things. Both give you more money overall with less risk imo. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Save My Favorite Final Fantasy Characters XXIII: Day 87 [smfffc] |
| Lopen 10/04/21 2:01:07 PM #79 | Sephiroth --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 33 |
| Lopen 10/04/21 2:00:44 PM #27 | red sox 777 posted... About twice a year he goes all in on some risky stock (AMC, DISCB). Those plays are generating the majority of his returns, not the put selling. Those plays are actually not that much more safe than the roulette table though. Just because he hit black twice in a row doesn't make it smart. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 33 |
| Lopen 10/04/21 1:58:52 PM #26 | That being said I do think selling weekly puts at close to the strike is a strong strategy, if you believe in the stock(s). You triple the premium on those puts and now he's doubling his money in less than two years. Being assigned on a 15% drop at $167.50 vs $172.50 is about the same result, but you're rapidly offsetting the cost with your tripled premiums. Just in one week alone you basically risk $1 less of stock price. Stock price of $167.50 vs $172.50 isn't a huge deal in the grand scheme of things if you believe it goes up long term. If you get assigned at some value between $167.50 and $172.50, you can sell calls the next week at $172.50 and make a lot of money still. BUT now change it from getting ~$4000 from sold puts on Disney and Disney alone, and change it to a wide selection of stocks (only 5-10 would make a lot of difference) that are unlikely to all go down at the same time, and you make more long term with less risk. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 33 |
| Lopen 10/04/21 1:49:05 PM #24 | red sox 777 posted... Although potentially fast, that's way less likely to actually accomplish the doubling though. At a roulette table, your probability of doubling your money is going to be below 50% no matter what strategy you use. Moonroof's strategy is very likely to double his money on a timescale of a small number of years. It's positive EV. It's actually not likely to double his money all that soon with his current taste for risk. $330k puts into Disney here we go. $167.50 strike next Friday, got around $1200 for it. 330000/1200 = 275. He'd double his money in around 4-5 years if never assigned. In the grand scheme of things it's not that long, but consider the price only has to drop by about 5% for him in any given week to actually be assigned the shares which would further limit his profit potential. Then you consider the possibility of a medium sized gap down on DIS in that time in a given week potentially costing him a ton of money (if it drops even just 15%, he'd be assigned a bunch of $167.50 shares when the stock is around $150, then likely panic sell at $150 or panic buy back the puts and eat a huge loss limiting him further still) I do honestly believe SPY or QQQ and forget it would give overall more money. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 33 |
| Lopen 10/04/21 1:25:03 PM #21 | You have a higher chance of being assigned but because you're diversified the assignment usually doesn't matter as much. You just sell a call at the strike you were assigned the next week, and the ones that expire worthless do so at many times more the premium. For instance to use Disney as your example. You could sell the Oct 8 $167.5 put at $0.57 right now (I believe this what you sold) Or you could sell the Oct 8 $172.5 put at $1.78 right now Now here's the thing, if you sell at the $172.5 strike, you only need to put down about 1/3 amount of capital to make the same amount of money If you use the remaining 2/3 capital to sell puts on other things, you have increased protection on Disney randomly tanking $20 (which could totally happen without a catastrophic event) and you could actually make more money from your sold puts as you would make more money from selling puts on other stocks as well. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 33 |
| Lopen 10/04/21 12:39:26 PM #17 | Listen if you want to make 1k weekly while risking 330k on a gap down and think that's okay then whatever. But if you diversified and picked strikes closer to at the money you could make like 4k weekly with less risk. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Rate the VG Story Day 119: Final Fantasy VIII |
| Lopen 10/04/21 12:25:28 PM #86 | I never had a problem with Ultimecia. She's tangentially related enough to the stuff you're doing that I'd put her above the Zeromuses and Necrons of the world-- also her design and final boss battle are ace. That being said 3/10 Hits some high notes in Disc 1. Disc 2's arc is a mess and the rest of the game is spent developing a character in a way I don't particularly like or agree with. This game is a master class in why being able to pick dialogue choices and them not mattering can be a very bad thing. The romance development isn't too bad if you pick the nicer options every time (which still have sufficiently enough Squall bite that they kinda flow right), BUT the problem lies in that I can make Squall a total dick to Rinoa the whole game and then Disc 3 is totally jarring-- like that moon scene where they're hugging on a chair is probably the most venomous reaction I've ever had to a video game scene ever. Squall is Dead theory makes the plot a solid 8 were it more plainly shown, but I can't actually give it credit on that. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | This is your last chance to put down your prediction for the final SSBU fighter |
| Lopen 10/04/21 11:10:31 AM #40 | Going to go against the grain of The Halo Theme and Grunt and go with Master Chief --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 33 |
| Lopen 10/04/21 10:58:46 AM #12 | I actually don't diversify much. 95% of my portfolio consists of FAMI, FUBO, DNN, HA, and ANY. But like with his strategy(?) I absolutely would because the cost of doing so is 0. Selling a ton of puts is always better to spread around unless you're doing it on something with a particularly lucrative premium you can't get somewhere else. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 33 |
| Lopen 10/04/21 12:14:37 AM #4 | I feel like a lot of the risk can be mitigated by stop losses in any case. Actually with selling puts it kinda cant in a lot of situations (gap down AH you can't buy options back AH) which is why I'm a bit worried for Moonroof using them in a dumb way --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Who has the more impressive resume, Mario or Barbie? |
| Lopen 10/03/21 6:57:37 PM #29 | agesboy posted... have we ever even seen mario do any plumbing work, which is his most well-known gig In the Super Mario Bros Super Show he does a lot of plumbing --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Save My Favorite Final Fantasy Characters XXIII: Day 86 (RULE CHANGE) [smfffc] |
| Lopen 10/03/21 5:23:08 PM #186 | Sephiroth --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Best/Worst #15 - Final Fantasy X Character |
| Lopen 10/03/21 2:56:06 PM #35 | Best: Tidus Worst: Kimahri I actually love this game's cast. Tidus Rikku and Wakka are great. Yuna Auron and Lulu don't excite me but I respect their roles and their contributions to the story. I don't even hate Kimahri but he is completely pointless. My favorite track is the regular battle theme. Just a stand out in the series and I never get bored of it. Blitzball is fun Chocobo racing is worse because I feel no compulsion to get Lulu's ultimate weapon so rarely bother dodging lightning (otherwise dodging is worse by far) Laughing scene is actually good but not remotely the best in the game (nor worst) --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Save My Favorite Final Fantasy Characters XXIII: Day 85 [smfffc] |
| Lopen 10/03/21 2:49:01 PM #374 | Here you go Martin Sephiroth Rikku Agrias Oaks Kefka Palazzo ... uhhh... this field is pretty unexciting. Hard to order the rest out of pure apathy but I'll try. Galuf Halm Baldesion Estinien Wyrmblood Jessie Rasberry Ignis Scientia Ktjn Cecil Harvey Locke Cole Beatrix Yuna Aerith Gainsborough Freya Crescent --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Final Fantasy Record Keeper Topic 53: lolbio... is actually good now?! |
| Lopen 10/03/21 2:41:27 PM #336 | I got Zidane Dyad + Eiko Awakening on today's ticket Only way it could have been worse is if you threw a Terra Sync on it too. I guess I'll probably use them for FFIX content though since everyone in that realm is p bad --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Is Milky Way one of your favorite candy bars? |
| Lopen 10/02/21 1:52:38 AM #25 | Before considering OG milky way these (in no particular order) immediately come to mind as definitively better: Kit Kat Twix Butterfinger Reeses Rolo Milky Way Midnight 3 Musketeers Baby Ruth Milky Way Midnight might be in contention for a top 5. Milky Way is fine but not one of my favorites. Might be top 10. Maybe. But I'm not a huge candy bar fan so like, possibly top 10 isn't really prestigious its just more like "well at least it's not a Zero bar" --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Final Fantasy Record Keeper Topic 53: lolbio... is actually good now?! |
| Lopen 10/02/21 1:46:50 AM #324 | 100 gemmed Kefka Dyad I like this banner as a gimmick but I think if I want to just abandon poison for now that's the best one for me to get so I'll take it as a sign to skip --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Sooo is anyone playing Diablo 2: Resurrected? |
| Lopen 10/02/21 1:42:08 AM #27 | UltimaterializerX posted... After the backlash, they swung so far the other way that the best drops all pop out like a pinata. Don't agree with this at all. Kinda feels that way early because you're basically guaranteed some drops through story progression but I think if you played Diablo 3 extensively at the higher levels you wouldn't either. I mean I've played Diablo 2 more but I have never completed one of the high level class sets in Diablo 3, and I've tried. Completed a few in Diablo 2, without trading even. And then you throw stat ranges in the mix where you're trying to get the best stat spread for your gear and yeah. I'm not saying it isn't more generous-- it probably is-- but pinata isn't accurate by any stretch. They are definitely rare enough that it's hype to get the stuff you want and that you're not going to get the great items without a major grind. Like did you know high end rune drop rates in Diablo 2 were like 5% of what they are currently before like patch 1.12? No one would call them a pinata now though and I think most people prefer the higher rates. Higher drop rates within reason are nice and Diablo 3 is far from crossing over into too generous imo --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Save My Favorite Final Fantasy Characters XXIII: Day 84 (RULE CHANGE) [smfffc] |
| Lopen 10/01/21 7:27:30 PM #145 | Agrias --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Save My Favorite Final Fantasy Characters XXIII: Day 84 (RULE CHANGE) [smfffc] |
| Lopen 10/01/21 6:26:18 PM #40 | Sephiroth --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Sooo is anyone playing Diablo 2: Resurrected? |
| Lopen 10/01/21 5:40:16 PM #22 | redrocket posted... But what about Torchlight? The visuals in Torchlight suck the energy out of the game for me and the loot system is significantly less satisfying than the other three (still better than launch Diablo 3 though) Has some neat classes but yeah I'd put that one in last place --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Sooo is anyone playing Diablo 2: Resurrected? |
| Lopen 10/01/21 5:37:18 PM #21 | UltimaterializerX posted... It's because Diablo 3 is gear-based and gear-based only. That gets old in an hour. Not exactly. As long as you have the setting that lets you put skills in any slot enabled this hasn't been true since Reaper of Souls, maybe even before that. There are meaningful choices in your skill (and which runes in your skill) setup that add a lot to how your "build" will work. You can reset it at any time which can make Diablo 2 feel a bit more satisfying in a lot of ways but yeah D3 hasn't really just been about cycling through better loot for a long long time. It can be a bit of a slog while you're slowly unlocking slots though. Lucavi000 posted... PoE is like the tryhard little brother of D2 Haha this sounds about right. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Sooo is anyone playing Diablo 2: Resurrected? |
| Lopen 10/01/21 10:19:34 AM #17 | For me the appeal to Diablo is simple I want to build up a character and choices to matter I want my loot drops to matter I want to have satisfying gameplay to use my character + loot Launch Diablo 3 basically only has gameplay. Diablo 2 is the only one that clicks all 3 to my satisfaction. Current Diablo 3 and PoE check the first box bit don't quite hit it how I'd like. D3 is too simple (since you can redo your choices and are locked into 6 skills) and PoE is too in depth with the sphere grid stuff. Launch D3 was rubbish because because drops didn't matter either and you had less meaningful build choices too. . D3 has the best pure gameplay of the 3 but is a little formulaic at times, but yeah, more or less agree with Neon's ranking. D2 took until a patch released 3 years after the base game (1.10)and an expansion after to really become a legendary game though, I think people are a bit harsh on launch D3 with that in mind. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Sooo is anyone playing Diablo 2: Resurrected? |
| Lopen 10/01/21 6:50:54 AM #13 | Path of Exile never really gripped me like D2. Think it pushes the complexity/depth a bit further than it should and loses a lot of charm in the process. It's a better successor to D2 than D3 but I'd rather play D3. On topic is anyone playing this on the switch and does it control well there --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Final Fantasy Record Keeper Topic 53: lolbio... is actually good now?! |
| Lopen 10/01/21 12:07:58 AM #306 | 100 gem Edge Dyad Beast. Only reason I almost wanted to draw on it obtained --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Save My Favorite Final Fantasy Characters XXIII: Day 83 [smfffc] |
| Lopen 09/30/21 1:39:11 PM #28 | Sephiroth --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Best/Worst #13 - Wii Sports Sport |
| Lopen 09/30/21 11:04:29 AM #28 | Best bowling Worst baseball --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Save My Favorite Final Fantasy Characters XXIII: Day 82 (RULE CHANGE) [smfffc] |
| Lopen 09/29/21 4:58:23 PM #47 | Sephiroth --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Save My Favorite Final Fantasy Characters XXIII: Day 81 (RULE CHANGE) [smfffc] |
| Lopen 09/28/21 5:35:58 PM #37 | Sephiroth --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Final Fantasy Record Keeper Topic 53: lolbio... is actually good now?! |
| Lopen 09/27/21 9:56:55 PM #248 | Still holding out for Bravely Default characters but will probably never happen --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Save My Favorite Final Fantasy Characters XXIII: Day 80 [smfffc] |
| Lopen 09/27/21 8:41:31 PM #300 | XI Only know that from Record Keeper but yeah, XI --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Save My Favorite Final Fantasy Characters XXIII: Day 80 [smfffc] |
| Lopen 09/27/21 5:08:37 PM #234 | Total life support NRs are poor form case in point --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Save My Favorite Final Fantasy Characters XXIII: Day 80 [smfffc] |
| Lopen 09/27/21 4:27:31 PM #141 | Rikku --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Save My Favorite Final Fantasy Characters XXIII: Day 80 [smfffc] |
| Lopen 09/27/21 3:19:43 PM #69 | Sephiroth --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Final Fantasy Record Keeper Topic 53: lolbio... is actually good now?! |
| Lopen 09/27/21 2:16:42 PM #243 | SSJSephirothGokuX123 posted... Delay reduction. It's pretty much the only thing he can use. So I'm looking and I'm not seeing delay reduction on armor on anyone Is it only his weapon that can get it and I should just go with the 5% holy damage on the armor? --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Final Fantasy Record Keeper Topic 53: lolbio... is actually good now?! |
| Lopen 09/27/21 1:05:35 PM #241 | I've been getting Reno stuff these draws too Got Reno AASB (the one with the overflow lightning reflect damage, not sure if that's his first or if he has two and it's the second) and got his Limit Overflow very recently too from something or other. I'd like his sync! I could use him on my lightning teams then! --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Final Fantasy Record Keeper Topic 53: lolbio... is actually good now?! |
| Lopen 09/27/21 12:28:31 PM #237 | Oh I didn't think delay reduction was on any of his gear aside from the accessory guess I've just been unlucky with the draws so far They cap at 5%? --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Metroid 5 impressions zone |
| Lopen 09/27/21 12:27:12 PM #4 | Wow I'm sold First time I've been excited about a Metroid game since Metroid Prime ruined the series --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Apparently there's an NES version of Ff7 |
| Lopen 09/27/21 11:58:53 AM #6 | I knew about this for a long time but I didn't think there was an English patch and I don't know Chinese. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Final Fantasy Record Keeper Topic 53: lolbio... is actually good now?! |
| Lopen 09/27/21 11:55:23 AM #235 | So what the heck should I even be aiming for on Edward's artifacts? Holy damage seems fairly pointless but at the same time the best one due to starting resistance and damage barriers being even more pointless? I mean I guess not caring about the percentage is nice. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | I finally finished part 2 of the Metroid Retrospective |
| Lopen 09/27/21 10:17:57 AM #12 | Yeah. Can vouch. I've dropped two games ever due to physical discomfort MP Hunters on the DS for hand pain. Although I will say it wasn't that bad for me, just annoying enough that I didn't want to play more fairly early in the game-- if I liked the game more I would've powered through it (until it hurt more, probably) Turok Dinosaur Hunter for extreme motion sickness. And I play a lot of FPS games. That one I actually kinda liked and tried to get through but I couldn't play more than a couple of hours before it got super bad. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | What's the LONGEST you've ever PISSED before in one toilet trip???? |
| Lopen 09/27/21 10:11:29 AM #5 | I fairly regularly pee over 1, like probably once a month at least. I try to drink a lot of water and don't always get to the bathroom in a timely fashion But not sure I've ever made 2, even back when I was on my "gallon of water a day" kick (which I probably should try to get back into) --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | I finally finished part 2 of the Metroid Retrospective |
| Lopen 09/26/21 8:20:12 PM #7 | Yeah. I'm generally used to the "more stats" version of Hard Mode you talked about so I didn't really play it much as I didn't fall in love with the game on my first playthrough But yeah definitely seems like my jam. Sometime soon I'll check it out again, still have my cart --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Been a long time! |
| Lopen 09/26/21 6:43:57 PM #20 | Holy crap I just looked through the PotD archives The only reason I'm sure I remember that contest existing is because I remember Devil May Cry 5 beating Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze and Skyrim doing well Wow. What a blur. I feel like I must have outright missed most of that contest-- probably more than any contest since 2002. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | Been a long time! |
| Lopen 09/26/21 4:38:15 PM #19 | MZero posted... Game of the Decade, which ran from March - May of last year Did this actually happen I don't even remember a contest --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | I finally finished part 2 of the Metroid Retrospective |
| Lopen 09/26/21 4:34:18 PM #5 | Yeah for this I guess it's fine for continuity. I mean sometimes I do like to just listen to a topic for an hour but more often I do tend to take it piecemeal and I think most people do But that being said I probably would have watched the MP2 review after MP1 either way. Good reviews will lead people to watch other reviews. Side note you really tempted me to play more Zero Mission I didn't dabble in Hard Mode much and it seems like something I'd really like --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Topic | I finally finished part 2 of the Metroid Retrospective |
| Lopen 09/26/21 12:14:04 PM #2 | I watched the whole thing. Even Prime 2 which I haven't actually played. Probably cause we were so in sync on Prime I was like "well maybe it's better let's see" The presentation was fine and I enjoyed your enthusiasm. I agreed with the thoughts on the games (you summed up my beefs with Prime better than I ever could) I had played and thought you explained good and bad pretty well. But honestly I think you'd be better suited to just split them up. I realize that means certain videos would get less views but that's okay. Like if you wanna create the reviews in batches that's fine but just space out the releases of the reviews-- create reviews for all of them, split the video up, release one a week for a while one per game. Gives your channel the appearance of more content, less downtime between content, and snap reaction to new video posts isn't immediately like "your video is HOW long?" (No lie if I wasn't half groggy when I started and noticed the progress bar I probably would have not watched it seeing it goes over an hour) --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
| Board List |