Lurker > foolm0r0n

Summary for anyone catching up: nothing has really changed in the last 24 hours, come back on Friday

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_foolmo_
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LordoftheMorons posted...

https://twitter.com/FINALLEVEL/status/1324163644645609473

Would they have won any state? Need to know how much I should care

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_foolmo_
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I want to see a machine that can optically differentiate sharpie from pen

I love conspiracies that require a decade of secret advancement in technology

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_foolmo_
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Jakyl25 posted...

Yeah I dont get foolmos take that they arent

All political followings that care more about the candidate than his stances are cults

Thats not to say that everyone who voted Trump is in the cult, but the cult exists

Yeah obviously there's a Trump cult, but it's not 70m Americans. It's obvious that a definition of "cult" that includes the entire Republican and Democrat parties is totally wrong. One that includes just the Republican party is even more wrong.

Like I'm not even trying to be a 3rd party edgelord who says all 2 party voters are cultists. I want the 2 party voters to really try to understand why someone would vote for their terrible guy.

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_foolmo_
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KamikazePotato posted...

I think people these days understand exactly why Trump is strong.

Believing it's a cult is not understanding

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_foolmo_
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Uematsu's big epic tracks are more varied and interesting than Shimomura's, but I think when it comes to a whole game's score, including the more chill background music, Shimomura's style makes for such a comforting and cohesive feel. She rocks the battle themes too so it's not like Uematsu has a clear edge on those.

Also she has the best 30s loop in all of gaming music
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UNADbGeY2vQ

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_foolmo_
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Trump is strong. Dems had 4 years to understand why he was strong and didn't. Even if Trump wins again, they won't bother to learn and improve. If Biden wins then they will try to rewrite history and say Trump was never strong, and of course lose again next time.

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_foolmo_
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Bernie will primary Kamala in 2024 so we'll see what happens then

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_foolmo_
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Mr Lasastryke posted...

as much as biden sucks, i don't like focusing on how much he sucks. the focus should be on the crazy amount of people who thought four more years of trump was a good idea. they, first and foremost, suck.

You can't ignore that the other choice was Biden though, since we have the duopoly.

If you can understand anti-voting Trump then clearly you can understand anti-voting Biden. It's not about voting for something better, it's about trying to reason about which horrible shit is better for you. And you can't really reason about that so you rely on gut and emotion.

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_foolmo_
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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

Yeah no, Bernie doesn't win Texas unless he drops everything and goes on a Beto-style road trip through rural Texas

If he was the nominee they would spray bbq sauce on his shirt before every rally

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_foolmo_
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Bernie wins GA and TX

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_foolmo_
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StartTheMachine posted...

Can we all at least agree that this election - rather than being a repudiation of Trump and Trumpism as many had hoped - was yet again a repudiation of the Democrats' inane strategy of centrism and courting Republicans?

Not if Biden wins.

If anything it's a repudiation of any internal conflict in the Democrat party. If they win, they will demand any non-establishment fall in line or be expelled.

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_foolmo_
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Jakyl25 posted...

I wonder how the actual job of being President and doing things related to the job of being President are proceeding today

I wonder if he just ghosted a call with a world leader or anything

Presidents don't actually do anything

And Congress isn't either until January

So things are probably pretty normal

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_foolmo_
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Decriminalized shrooms in DC by 75%, damn

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_foolmo_
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It's crazy how hard it is to bind a basic map of the election updates with some live needle-like indicators.

News sites are so damn scarred from 2016. Now it's all just live blogs with "well there's a 10% chance so anything can happen!" every other sentence.

(Oh wait I found 538's, it's nice)

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_foolmo_
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turbopuns3 posted...

It's pretty wild to think about how it's coming down to a few states where the number of votes that went to candidates other than the major R/D choices would be enough to change the result if they went one way or the other

Like. People's choice to support the Constitution Party (for example) with their vote is an actual significant thing

That's only because people take ownership of 3rd party votes for some reason. It's also why they feel like a 3rd party vote is like someone breaking into their home and stealing their TV. When really a 3rd party vote mostly comes from the 50%+ of the electorate that does not vote. It's generally a null effect, other than the 5% popular vote funding thing (which unfortunately wasn't even close this time).

It's nice that the duopoly can be made to fear 5000 votes like that though.

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_foolmo_
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TotallyNotMI posted...

No matter what happens, the fact that *so many* people looked at the last 4 years and thought "yes, I want more of that" just absolutely disgusts me and makes me lose all hope for the future of our country.

Is this referring to the Dem campaign?

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_foolmo_
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Corrik7 posted...

I love how Trump people I know in life act like I am dumb as fuck when I say anything they don't like politically lol. Dude telling me how dumb I am for saying Michigan is going to be Biden's. Lol.

Watch, you will still be dumb and you are wrong. Their feelings are way stronger than fact.

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_foolmo_
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Jakyl25 posted...

More bad news is that it means Trumpism is still viable for the GOP and we will not see the rats jump ship

Worse is that the Democrat establishment non-strategy will still seem viable if Biden wins, even though it's still just rolling the same dice as 2016

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_foolmo_
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Corrik7 posted...

Wtf oregon decriminalized hard drugs.

We'll prob have legal shrooms in DC too

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_foolmo_
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Tg

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_foolmo_
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Xeybozn posted...

why aren't they registered to vote where they apparently live?

You can basically choose. I could've done DC or VA but it was too much of a pain to do VA so I did DC even though I lost the value of my vote.

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_foolmo_
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I hope everyone standing in 3 hour lines has had enough time to be convinced to vote for Jo

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_foolmo_
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DeepsPraw posted...

I assume 100% of the people who voted Clinton will be voting Biden

That's definitely not the case. There are plenty of things Biden has "given in to" like BLM which turns off some Democrats. It's probably a minor effect though.

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_foolmo_
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Did they vote in 2016?

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_foolmo_
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https://www.270towin.com/maps/9J8ml

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_foolmo_
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DeepsPraw posted...

hmm I think I'm confusing "concede" with "abdicate". Trump will definitely protest the results as long as he can if things don't go his way, but I don't see him illegally clinging to power come January

If he had the power and support to cling to power, he totally would

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_foolmo_
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Damn i wasn't gonna make a prediction but if it's the new guru...

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_foolmo_
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538 is saying Biden has a 90% chance and in 2016 they said Hillary had a 70% chance right?

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_foolmo_
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red13n posted...

but if you actually ever had a conversation with him about his beliefs, you'd realize that he'd never thought very deeply about the actual impact of his beliefs. He looked at everything on the outside but couldn't justify the deeper impacts of his own beliefs.

I think it's clear how exactly this describes the Democrats ITT, especially those who prefer Trump to 3rd party, or who thinks a few million more Californian votes for Biden will erase fascism.

So the real question is why you give Democrats and Republicans such a hard pass on this? I understand giving your team a pass, but why Republicans? How has the duopoly earned your loyalty so thoroughly?

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_foolmo_
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red sox 777 posted...

Republicans used to believe in trickle-down economics. No one does anymore. We tried it. It didn't work.

Republicans and Democrats are still totally pro keynesianism

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_foolmo_
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LordoftheMorons posted...

No I would prefer Jorgensen and Hawkins to Trump because they're at least not literal sociopaths, but they still suck.

Cool! Just don't forget how non-trivial that position is

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_foolmo_
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red13n posted...

I'd probably vote for Trump over an actual Libertarian.

Yup, that applies to many Democrats. Trump is Hitler and he's also your 2nd choice. Harder to argue with people like that than with a Trump supporter tbh. The leftists can handle it though.

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_foolmo_
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LordoftheMorons posted...

Why would I vote for Jorgensen or Hawkins over Biden when theyre both way worse candidates?

People always focus on FPTP being the reason third parties fail (which is definitely a big part of it), but another big part is that the existent third parties suck.

Jo is a better candidate, dunno about Howie. But yes I understand that you and millions of others prefer Trump and Biden to 3rd parties.

That's the sad reality about all this RCV talk. The vast majority of Americans would just write a 1 and 2 next to Trump and Biden anyways. They don't want more choices.

Might as well still fight for it though because the only other option is pure apathy.

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_foolmo_
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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

Can you explain what the Libertarian argument for the EC is?

It's an orthogonal issue. You'll prob find all kinds of opinions on it. The L party is never gonna get enough votes for it to matter, and if they do, then indeed it will be due to EC shenanigans. But that's not where my opinion comes from.

Personally I just like "minority rule". Statists preach about how popular vote is the defining characteristic of democracy, but it's not - protection of the minority is. To what extent the EC does that is arguable, especially since it's at the state level which is not granular enough to really protect minority interests, and it demands ignoring all but the most battlegroundy states. But popular vote is not better in those regards. A good hint that you're totally missing the point is if you think senators should also scale based on population.

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_foolmo_
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Paratroopa1 posted...

so I shouldn't vote biden because democrats shouldn't take my vote for granted, instead I should vote for a third party regardless of how shitty their candidates are and whether or not they're trying to win my vote. mmhmm got it

No, you should use your vote to help your cause instead of completely wasting it. It's just a potential bonus that the Ds might respect you a little bit more for it out of fear.

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_foolmo_
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get better at the bow, it wrecks

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_foolmo_
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The EC and FPTP shouldn't be in the same conversation here, they are completely different issues. RCV is a direct attack on the 2-party system and is relevant at all levels to weaken the 2-party system. The EC is only a problem to those who think Democrats should be able to ignore small states in presidential elections. It doesn't help 3rd parties at all. From what I can tell, it only hurts them, by eliminating the risk that a 3rd party wins some small neglected state and gets a disproportionate amount of EVs.

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_foolmo_
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xp1337 posted...

The Democrats are more of a "big tent"/coalition style party so you might see them budge an inch or two but you're just as likely to see it backfire and have them run the other way to chase Republican votes.

Both parties have shown some big-tentedness in this case. Republicans with tea party and Democrats with the leftists. The only reason Biden is out here virtue signaling is because of the internal threat that AOC and such have raised, and the threat of independent left voters legit not voting for Biden. Biden has essentially been made to fight for a 3rd party faction in this way. Same thing with Trump and his anti-war anti-establishment rhetoric that won him the election.

Yes, Trump lied about 100% of it, and Biden is also lying, but you have to recognize that the only reason these 2-party candidates even try at all is because of pressure from independents up until the day of the actual vote. (There's the much bigger issue of holding elected officials accountable after they lie, which is way more difficult and and isn't solved by voting reform.)

This is also why it's crucial that Biden isn't seen as a leader or even an ally of progressives. That's how the movement gets taken over and neutralized from the inside.

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_foolmo_
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Xeybozn posted...

Wouldn't it be more effective to vote for the candidate who can, you know, actually beat Trump?

That's what I'm asking - how is it more effective for Biden's CA vote to triple Trump than to just double?

Jakyl25 posted...

And my only beef with what foolmo is saying is that he hasnt defined the battleground state threshold

Up to you really. I'm not going to blame you for voting Biden if you legitimately fear that Biden will lose your state.

That's why I'm using CA/NY/DC as examples. The Ls got 3.5% last time btw, it would just take 1 million more votes to get to 5%. Extremely doable without anyone even noticing, if major states like CA/NY voted 3rd party just a little bit more.

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_foolmo_
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Mr Lasastryke posted...

"libertarians? they don't even want to build a giant WALL to keep the evil IMMIGRANTS out! they're just a bunch of SJW commies!"

But like Muffin, all those Trumpers do actually have libertarian envy/delusion. They are still in the phase where they are convincing themselves Trump is the libertarian hero they have been waiting for. So after he loses, it would be great for them to legitimately blame the Ls, so they can further disassociate themselves from libertarianism.

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_foolmo_
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Tom Bombadil posted...

The wider the margin of victory, the fewer people on the fence he will be able to convince he was screwed.

Or, a wider popular vote margin proves to those on the fence that Trump is much more necessary to defend against manipulated politics.

Is there any evidence that the 3 million popular votes had a net effect to convince people away from Trump?

Beyond that, I don't see what's more repudiating to Trump than voting for the L in this election, since it's saying you're a conservative that is distinctly anti-Trump.

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_foolmo_
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Why would he bother throwing away votes in CA or NY? My question is how does a 100% popular vote in CA and NY make it any less likely that he will try to steal the election in TX, FL, etc?

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_foolmo_
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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

No, but that means the system has to be burnt down if it's that oppressive. Do I really have to explain this to a libertarian?

That's the joke philosophy that people like to prescribe to libertarians. The impossible post-revolutionary utopia. But the reality is that libertarianism is a large spectrum, which you can definitely move down incrementally, and in fact America and much of the world is pretty deep in it already. Most libertarians understand and support that incrementalism (and also support some radical stuff, sure).

The joke ones you're referring to don't actually care about society, they just want to be contrarian, and they are all now devoted Trumpers. I would hope that anti electoral college people are more principles about their movement than that...

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_foolmo_
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Tom Bombadil posted...

I think margin of victory in non-battleground states DOES actually matter for once

How though? I'm open to this idea, but I can't imagine any scenario that it works. You're talking about a president that already lost the popular vote by 3 million. How many more millions of votes are necessary to erase Trumpism?

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_foolmo_
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Do I really have to explain why "systemic oppression doesn't exist, you just need to work harder" is wrong to a bunch of Democrats?

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_foolmo_
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metroid composite posted...

Honestly, currently the most effective way to change things with how messed up the US system is seems to be primaries.

Definitely. The problem is that it's still very hard to get to the primary, and it has disastrous interactions with the duopoly. In particular it seems to only work when your party is the underdog. When Trump won the primary, the only choice was for the ENTIRE party to fall in line, or else Republicans would lose. That erased all the different factions in the Republican party, and now there's is no place for conservatism in the party. When you have 1 and exactly 1 opponent, you will eventually fall in line. No small victories are sustainable.

We'll see how the AOC/Bernie crowd survives after this election. Don't be surprised if it goes the way of the Tea Party and gets taken over and neutralized.

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_foolmo_
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Xeybozn posted...

If nobody cares about non-national elections and third parties are so much better, they should be winning a lot of local/state-level elections. They do not, and it's fairly rare to see third-party candidates win any such races. What's going on there?

Duopoly doesn't magically go away at the more local levels. In fact the worst effect is that you have independents who have to run under the duopoly in order to have the money to campaign. More election funding directly helps that. But even without that, there's a decent growth in success among independents at the local levels.

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_foolmo_
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UshiromiyaEva posted...

Pretty sure just about everyone here's go to take is to eliminate the electoral college, a far better way to solve this potential issue than yours.

Hmm I dunno, I just filled in a little circle to vote 3rd party. Didn't need 75% state approval for that at all.

But hey if you want to stay asleep until we get rid of the electoral college, I get the appeal in that for sure.

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_foolmo_
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GuessMyUserName posted...

vote third parties this year and go back to voting against them when it matters more is hardly a strong argument

Why? That's how Biden is gonna win this election. That's how Trump won his election.

My point is that even if you hate 3rd parties, it's strategic to vote for them. Obviously I think there's philosophical merit to the party, but that's not how you convince people to vote.

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_foolmo_
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