Lurker > LordoftheMorons

UshiromiyaEva posted...

I believe I misunderstood an earlier vote, the real deal is now. There is one R yes, I'm assuming it's Kizinger.

Yep:

https://twitter.com/alexthomas/status/1357467410601762816?s=21

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masterplum posted...

The reason for UBI over targeted is UBI allows people who "Don't need it" to find fulfilling work outside of what they are currently doing without being chained to an often dead end job.

I'm sure there are people making $40000 a year who would much rather be making $20000 and surviving on basic income

$20k a year for every adult would be a bit over $5 trillion a year, which was larger than the entire 2019 US budget.

(And to the extent that people are deciding to retire and live on UBI instead of working you're shrinking the economy, making it even harder to pay for).

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UBI would cost an absurd amount of money, largely because a lot of that money would be going to people who dont need it. Targeted welfare is better.

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https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/1357369734526889994?s=21

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UshiromiyaEva posted...

Liz Cheney keeps her position.

Seeing people wishing this wasn't a secret ballot, but I'm glad it was. We now have a definitive count of how many Republican house members actually believe their bullshit and how many are doing it for show.

https://twitter.com/MZanona/status/1357142468106604544?s=19

Sooo how many votes does a hypothetical secret ballot impeachment vote get

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In case it was somehow not already clear that the House GOP is beyond saving

https://twitter.com/cam_joseph/status/1357116355988910080

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https://twitter.com/DRoseTV/status/1357070052646912009

Very cool

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https://twitter.com/james7holland/status/1356751758316474368?s=21

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Jesus

https://twitter.com/kenroth/status/1356861792622903301?s=21

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Suprak the Stud posted...

It would be a "fine" map if not for the fact it was a midterm election and the democrats hold the presidency. Historically that tends to suck. Although I thought the same thing about Georgia so I'll just keep reverse jinxing the democrats with my pessimism at this point!

Toomey is retiring and there is one more seat in a Biden won state with zero states up for democrats in states that Biden lost. I think the biggest concerns for dems are NH and NV. Particularly with how close NV was in 2020.

The Dem seat most in danger is definitely Warnock's, but yeah NV, NH, and AZ are also all potential R pickups

(I guess that answers my question as to whether or not my three counted Georgia... unfortunately not!)

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I think 2022 is a neutral map at best. Last I looked at it I wanna say there were like three Dems that seemed to me to be vulnerable (and I don't remember if that was counting Warnock's seat or not) and maybe four winnable seats (though I think most of those would be uphill). Combine that with the incumbent's party usually losing ground in the midterms and having no margin for error and it's gonna be tough.

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I don't see how they can DC Statehood with 50 though

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https://twitter.com/igorbobic/status/1356685393085804547?s=21

Unfortunately for Romney the former look to be the ones about to be pushed out!

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Oh man, youre gonna pass me in Origami King soon

I should really finish it!

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I gave some good stock advice earlier but nobody was interested in bailing on obviously inflated stocks!

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That will get laughed out of court

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Mac Arrowny posted...

The start of the Buu saga is pretty good!

Shame about the remaining 90% of it.

Yeah I havent heard great things!

I think I got maybe like 40% of the way through the second season of Kai before stopping last time, so Ill be on to new stuff pretty soon

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I might eventually get BD2, but I still need to finish the original and play BS.

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Got past the Cell Saga in the DB manga. I really like the next part.

Still mad that Gohan gets Videl to cut her hair though...!

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Leonhart4 posted...

Winry was a pretty vanilla love interest. She wasn't bad, but she wasn't anything special.

So I take it you're not gonna be using Winry as a baby name

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red sox 777 posted...

Finally, I've been reading/watching Chamath stuff a lot recently, and I find myself agreeing with him an awful lot. I think he's got my vote for governor of California as it stands.

Do you agree with his super-populist take that long term capital gains taxes should be zero

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Pretty good ranking

Father does suck

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Oh yeah, thats a pain in the ass

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Reopening indoor dining is insane

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ExThaNemesis posted...

also if DeepFuckingValue is still holding then that's all the proof I need

No way he could lie to you

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Reg posted...

Honestly, yes, but two things.

1) Even if you feel this way, you're not going to say no to money in your pocket, and nobody here is so well off that they wouldn't find a use for it.
2) It's literally cheaper for the government to not means test this stuff and just give it to everybody. Same concept as UBI as an alternative to welfare.

Ideally, yes, the poor and those who need it most would get the vast majority of the benefit here. But realistically, not gonna happen.

2) is definitely not true unless the cutoff is absurdly high. Were taking about hundreds of billions of dollars here; theres not that much overhead.

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ChichiriMuyo posted...

GME is a junk stock, and once the short squeeze is over I expect the value will tank once again. It sure is fun watching these wall street vampires getting their teeth kicked in, though.

The specific hedge funds that had massively shorted GameStop will lose a lot of money. The rest of them will cash in at the expensive of the former and suckers that got in on the hype train too late/hold on too long.

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It's fine for progressives to argue that the checks should be $2000, but the "they lied about $2000" claim is bullshit and contributes to the demonstrably false "both sides are the same" narrative

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"mom and pop redditors" sure is a phrase

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SeabassDebeste posted...

red
blue
yellow
gold
silver

Yeah this (or if you include Green they become 5/6 instead of 4/5)

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If we dont count CotBB (which I think should count!) I think I might go with Aeriths

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Pokmon is right because the fifth entry is either Gold or Silver...!

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https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1355701281042681856?s=21

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https://twitter.com/ChrisMegerian/status/1355664540843835402

Fuck these people

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Final Fantasy

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Forceful_Dragon posted...

But the stock and money still change hands as a part of this process to the point that each party has either the stock they bought or the money they got afterwards.

So where is the middleman liability?

They're not buying and selling the stock to you at exactly the same time. If the price moves a lot in the meantime they can potentially lose (or gain) money.

My understanding is that typically the time gap will be very short, but here you have a very erratic stock that a ton of people are jumping on.

As far as Robinhood goes, they're not the market maker themselves; they apparently had to shut down trades because they literally did not have enough cash for collateral to facilitate everything while they waited for trades to clear.

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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

so it's a free market except because you have to go through about three different tech companies to buy/sell if one of them is unable to or just says no the whole thing shuts down and people get locked out with very little regulation or transparency

great system

I mean all it is is that both sides have to agree to any trade. As far as I know there's nothing technically stopping anybody from not using a brokerage firm and instead finding a buyer directly. It would just be a huge pain in the ass.

Forcing entities to buy or sell things would seem a lot more problematic to me.

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Forceful_Dragon posted...

But is it the volume that is the problem?

Or just the time it takes for the funds and stocks to properly change hands?

How is it something that's still an issue? From my perspective I pick a stock, I spend money to buy the stock, now I have the stock to do with what I please including selling the stock again. I could turn around in half an hour and sell the stock I just bought and the trade would go through and then someone else will have the stock. So what part of my original trade is unresolved? I received the stock, someone else received the money for the stock. The person who got the money could in some cases immediately withdraw and use the money. So how is it that there is a middleman with a seemingly infinite amount of debt(?) while both the buyer and the seller have moved on with their lives.

So in a hypothetical system without these middlemen, you couldn't just freely sell stock. You'd have to advertise that you have X stock of Y and you're willing to sell it for Z. Then anyone else could come and take you up on that offer. There's no guarantee they would, though; maybe your price is too high, maybe there's just no one around who happens to want to own the stock even if it's in theory at a fair price, etc. Similarly you could see what other people had to sell, but maybe no one has the stock you want for sale right now, or they're only willing to sell in bulk, or whatever.

Going from this scenario to your smooth experience buying/selling stocks are why the middlemen are useful.

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red sox 777 posted...

LOTM, sorry, but you have no idea what you're talking about. It is not a market maker's job to set a price and eat liability if he can't find counterparties at that price. If there is a mismatch of buyers and sellers at a price point then then price has to move! If everyone wants to buy at $300 then the price should go up. There is a price at which there will be more long shares available to sell. A higher price. How much higher, I don't know, possibly very much higher in this case. At that price possibly some people who have made poor financial decisions will be going bankrupt.

What does that mean? They've already taken on too much risk - Robinhood or Apex or someone. They have not protected themselves for this situation which people on WSB have been publicly predicting would happen for months. They have failed as brokers or market makers (not really sure where the failure is). And the SEC or NYSE or someone should be regulating them to make sure they maintain appropriate risk management.

They would be taking on that liability under the hypothetical scenario where they were forced to facilitate all of these trades in some fixed time. But there's an easy way to limit that liability: they just don't buy/sell the volatile stock. I see no reason why they should be forced to do so if the risks are too high for them.

As for protecting themselves, I don't see what you're suggesting they should have done either. Bought up a bunch of GME stock a month ago so that they could have safely facilitated more trades based on this pump and dump maybe taking off?

I agree that the people massively shorting GameStop were dumb (though not because they were likely to be wrong; there just wasn't much upside given the unlikely but massive downside risk).

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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

It depends. If you are buying into WSB/reddit collectively organizing this on their own, then no. But as more details come out and it seems like more firms are involved, it seems unlikely to be that simple. But if the whole betting structure of shorting is what's causing this regardless of specific actors then maybe that has to go, or be tightly regulated or heavily taxed or something.

As an aside, was looking into the stuff about the sales stop yesterday and part of it was that one of the companies involved had leveraged ALL of its assets as collateral and had no more leverage to buy on behalf of users.



Stuff like this is just insane to me. Why is any of this allowed?

What are you saying shouldn't be allowed here?

You realistically need intermediaries to facilitate trades; without them, I couldn't just say "hey, I want to buy a stock of GME at the current price" and have that happen; there's likely going to be a mismatch between the number of people buying and selling. So what actually happens is that I buy from/sell to a market maker and they figure out the other end of things. But if everyone wants to buy rather than sell because this thing is blowing up like crazy, the market maker's gonna be forced to short the stock themselves and take on a ton of risk unless they stop letting people buy (I guess Robinhood is not a market maker themselves, but they execute trades on behalf of the market makers). Then if they take on so much risk that they literally can't cover it and things fall through, everything's fucked.

It is true that allowing selling but not buying manipulates the market and I can see an argument that if they shut down one they should shut down the other, but my suspicion is that people would also have been mad about that (probably madder?)

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Unless GameStop sells some of their own stock it means literally nothing for them

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No hospitalizations/deaths is a pretty big deal; Id definitely rather get an mRNA vaccine, but having had concerns about being forced to settle for a hypothetically inferior vaccine earlier I think I would take this one if it was my only option for the foreseeable future. (Id still try to get Pfizer/Moderna at the next earliest opportunity, though).

The real downside is at the societal level; if everyone got J&J, that alone wouldnt get us to herd immunity against the new, more contagious strains.

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I never suggested banning anyone from doing anything here. I am suggesting that maybe people are taking big risks that they may come to regret. Theyre free to ignore me, though!

In fact, normal people should invest in stuff like index funds

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https://twitter.com/jonsarlin/status/1355138287749500928?s=21

The thread has some highlights... pretty depressing

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Oh I should post this here too:

LordoftheMorons posted...

J&J vaccine is 66% effective (85% effective against severe disease, 100% against hospitalizations/deaths).

https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/29/health/johnson-coronavirus-vaccine-results/index.html

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If you actually want to reliably make money with long term investments with low risk, put your money into an index fund.

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J&J vaccine is 66% effective (85% effective against severe disease, 100% against hospitalizations/deaths).

https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/29/health/johnson-coronavirus-vaccine-results/index.html

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PerfectChaosZ posted...

So Roth is the way to go on IRA?

Depends on how much money youre making now vs how much youll be making when you withdraw the funds down the line. With a Roth you pay your taxes now and pay none when you withdraw, and with a traditional IRA you defer the tax to when you cash out. So generally if youre making less money now you might want a Roth, but if youre making more youd want a traditional IRA (though other things like future tax cuts/increases could change the situation somewhat).

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https://twitter.com/dprk_news/status/1354932064907390978?s=21

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Cascada - Everytime We Touch

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