Lurker > adjl

OhhhJa posted...

Herd immunity is real though. How do you think humanity conquered outbreaks like the black plague before vaccines existed?

Mostly by dying in enormous numbers before herd immunity was achieved. Herd immunity is indeed real, but the necessary threshold differs from disease to disease (for something as easily transmitted as Covid, it's likely to be well in excess of 90%), and reaching that without a vaccine would be an absolute mess (at a CFR of 2.8% in the US and presuming a 90% threshold, that's approximately 8,270,000 Americans dead, to say nothing of hospitalizations and further disabilities). Given that current observations are suggesting that antibodies only last for ~3 months after infection, it also may not even be possible to achieve herd immunity without deliberately infecting the entire world at the same time, which is obviously absurd.

Generally speaking, you probably shouldn't be relying entirely on a medieval understanding of public health. That's not really considered adequate these days, given the sort of advances medicine has made in the last dozen centuries. If that's the only defense you can find for your point, you should perhaps consider the possibility that your point is stupid and you should try believing something else.

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Harlots Feign Coital Satisfaction

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OhhhJa posted...

These tech companies totally aren't partisan guys! They definitely aren't trying to influence the election!

Do you think twitter shouldn't be shutting down people who are deliberately spreading misinformation for the purposes of influencing the election?

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Honestly, if you can swing it, it'd probably be best for you to move out. You're not wrong that this whole mess is his fault for buying the house under false pretenses, and that the fairest option would be for him to take responsibility for that and move out, but if he's not willing to do that (which is not actually an unreasonable position, where you'll be leaving the country in a year or two and he'll presumably stay in the house), staying put is only going to make you miserable. This sounds like you really need to consider whether being right is more important than being happy.

Wanded posted...

brah just do a juice based candida diet, pm me i'll tell you how

Not gonna lie, my first thought was that this was a euphemism for eating out a woman with a yeast infection.

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Hank's Free Catalog Service

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Hesitant French Cantaloupe Squashers

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Lokarin posted...

Meanwhile (I posted it already, but it's more relevant here)

https://truthout.org/articles/white-house-uses-petition-by-fake-doctors-with-prank-names-to-push-herd-immunity/

How do they sit down with no bottom?

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Hard Farts, Can't Stop

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WhiskeyDisk posted...

China can afford to play the long game. Numbers are on their side. They are literally the reason you don't start land wars in asia.

That's more to do with the terrain and climate than any specific country. Large swaths of Asia are pretty inhospitable.

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Relying on alcohol as a painkiller (physical or otherwise) is one of the primary ways it can become a serious issue. It's best to treat it as a recreational activity (with some associated risks), not a solution to anything.

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Zeus_LLC posted...

what the game is actually about still sounds cool.

Icy what you did there.

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Perhaps the most hilarious bit of irony is that the sort of person to do this is also the sort of person who's most likely to refuse to wear a mask because they "won't let fear control them."

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ParanoidObsessive posted...

Maybe CSI: Camelot or something could work really well, but it's hard to see it.

I could see it being an entertaining gimmick for maybe 2-3 episodes, but keeping the idea engaging for a whole series would be very difficult.

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Unfortunately, "impersonating a cop" usually requires the person to have attempted to use the authority that being a cop provides. Here, it was being used for optics, not to abuse any sort of authority, so it might be hard to make the charges stick.

That said, I sincerely hope somebody at least tries so that whoever's behind the account is dragged screaming into the sunlight, regardless of whether or not they're convicted. There's pretty much no chance it'll be traced directly back to Trump's campaign, since I'm sure they're better at covering their tracks than that, but they frankly deserve the kind of fear for their life that will come from having their identity attached to this.

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streamofthesky posted...

he didn't pretend to be in the military

The account does claim to be a veteran, actually. Dunno if that's enough to count, but it's something.

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Hoo boy.

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ClarkDuke posted...

zeus is old, and color television still spooks him when he turns the knob on, ok?

Colour tv really turns my knob on, if you know what I mean.

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ParanoidObsessive posted...

I generally assume that most voter fraud by one party will be counterbalanced by the voter fraud the other side is also committing, doubly counterbalanced by all the non-swing states where no one's vote really matters anyway, and triply counterbalanced by the fact that most people voting have no idea who or what the hell they're voting for anyway.

We'd probably get similar results if we just put a hundred monkeys in a room and let them throw feces around for an hour, then decided who was president based on which side of the room had more shit in it in the end.

Pretty much. The biggest potential problem is fraud getting caught and being used to justify throwing out election results that probably weren't actually affected by it.

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I don't advise Russian into a decision like that.

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WhiskeyDisk posted...

I wouldn't say "no reason". Think of all the businesses and real estate they're going to be able to snatch up for pennies on the dollar by the time is said and done. This is biological and economic warfare, which I wouldn't put past the CCP for a second.

I don't doubt that they'll find a way to take advantage of it (because, let's be real, everyone's been doing that whenever the opportunities have arisen), but there have just been too many variables involved in getting to this point for me to believe that it's all been according to any great plan. It's just too chaotic a situation to make any real predictions.

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Zeus_LLC posted...

these are far more dangerous times than usual.

Presumably, if you're making claims like that, you have concrete statistics on current assault rates, as well as more typical rates to which to compare them? Or are you actually just baselessly buying into the media's fearmongering regarding these protests and accepting the notion that a dangerous riot is even remotely likely to break out around any random person at any time with no warning?

deoxxys posted...

if you think you are endangered by mugging/assault (which is common in the bad parts of large cities), then you carry a weapon on you.

Sure, but there's a difference between carrying a loaded handgun in case you encounter a violent situation and carrying a semiautomatic rifle with enough ammunition to sustain a 20-minute shootout. One's a reasonable precaution, the other is some kind of delusional Rambo fantasy.

Realistically, if a protest begins to form around him, he'll have ample time to peacefully make his way somewhere else before anything turns violent. Even ignoring that the vast majority of these protests don't turn violent, an even greater majority only become violent once troublemakers show up to take advantage of the crowd and/or the police/other antagonists start aggressively confronting protesters. If anything, pulling out a gun before then is likely to put him and his family at greater risk by triggering a violent response to the very clear threat that he's presenting, and even if he does somehow end up embroiled in a violent protest without enough warning to escape (very unlikely), carrying a big gun is going to draw attention to him from troublemakers (to say nothing of how poorly suited long guns are for crowded, close-range situations), further impeding his ability to escape safely.

Again, these riots are not flash mobs. Bystanders that get caught up in them are generally people that live/work nearby or otherwise can't/choose not to keep their distance, not hapless passers-by that find themselves unexpectedly in the middle of a giant riot. Anyone actually concerned for their safety while out and about just has to not choose to get involved, not arm themselves to the teeth.

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Judgmenl posted...

It only gets manageable once you get like $100 in stash tabs. No I'm not kidding.

Not really. I spent $20 and that was fine, and even that only became "necessary" after sinking over 100 hours into it. With a reasonable sense of what's valuable (and therefore worth hoarding) and some good loot filters, you don't actually need all that much storage space. The biggest issue to overcome is the utterly absurd quantity of garbage loot that gets dropped if you don't use a filter, which will almost instantly overwhelm the character's inventory. Get a filter and learn what's worth picking up, and it gets a lot better.

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redline65 posted...

Tuberculosis kills 1.5 MILLION people every year and we have a vaccine and treatment for it.

And whenever there's a TB outbreak anywhere in the developed world, you see a lot of the same quarantine and contact tracing measures that have been employed for Covid in an effort to keep it under control. In TB's case, it's more because the disease is so dangerous than because it stands a real chance of overwhelming health care systems with uncontrolled spread (since, as you say, there's a vaccine to slow the spread and treatment that doesn't consist of plopping you in an ICU bed for a month and hoping for the best), but the same principles are applied. It's almost like public health officials have dealt with airborne infectious diseases before and know what they're talking about!

Lokarin posted...

Based on the stats provided in this topic, China's "very aggressive response" back in last December where they had military secret police walling off Wuhan for several weeks is what kept their numbers down.

Odds are, China's numbers are substantially worse than they've let on, because China, but that definitely helped the situation. Having a pre-existing culture of wearing masks to slow the spread of airborne infectious diseases also helped a lot. China didn't have to worry about entire counties refusing to suffer the horrible pain of wearing a bit of cloth on their face.

WhiskeyDisk posted...

Funny how they stopped travel from Wuhan to the rest of China at the time, but if you wanted to fly anywhere else in the world, the world was your oyster. Its almost as if China unleashed this plague upon the world intentionally, but far be it from me to accuse the glorious and above-reproach PRC and CCP of any fuckery where this pestilence in concerned. That would just be xenophobic.

Eh, I wouldn't say that it was intentionally spreading it so much as it was protecting themselves while not caring about other places/not wanting to admit they had such a problem. Callously destructive self-interest seems a lot more in line with the CCP's usual behaviour than some grand conspiracy to spread a terrible virus to the rest of the world for no reason.

Wanded posted...

there is no way their numbers are not fabricated

There isn't, but I'd consider their numbers only slightly less trustworthy than America's, given Trump's "our numbers will look better if we just slow down testing!" and subsequent decision to stop letting the CDC report stats independently (which corresponded suspiciously well with a drop in reported case numbers). In truth, most countries have fudged their numbers in some way or another, since it's really not a good look to be struggling to control this.

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I'm a big fan of the scenery in all three Xenoblade games. The first one is obviously held back a bit by the graphical limitations, but I feel the art design makes up for it and it's really just a joy to wander around and see everything. 2 is probably the weakest of the three in that regard, but it's still a gorgeous game.

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There have been several times that I've walked somewhere, put the mask on, done the indoor stuff that needed the mask, then walked home with it still on. It's not even that I forget that it's there, because it keeps fogging up my glasses and I'll keep adjusting it to minimize that, it just doesn't occur to me to take it off.

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YoukaiSlayer posted...

Lazy inconsiderate bastards just looking to excuse their lack of concern for the wellbeing of others.

You have to remember that winter is the sort of person who really doesn't belong in society because he cares nothing for other people. His existence consists mostly of spending his unemployment cheques at the local pub, which is why he's so resentful that the rest of the world has let covid restrict such activities. He will never understand basic human decency, but he also will never amount to anything more than lonely impotence, so you're probably best off ignoring him.

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likehelly posted...

he said puerto rico had better vote for him because he's been like a god to them

not has he done almost nothing for them, they can't vote for us presidency

Most of them probably won't even see that because he still hasn't gotten power back to them.

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OhhhJa posted...

Anyone with a half a brain could see this was going to hurt the economy and cause more problems than it solved.

Depends entirely how long it lasts. Hypothetically, the virus could have been eradicated in less than a month of actual lockdown (and not "my favourite bar is temporarily closed," which is a pretty tame "lockdown"), the economic impacts of which would have been pretty minimal (see: New Zealand), but the logistics of that are quite difficult to pull off. Obviously, protracted lockdowns are going to be more problematic, especially when it's the half-measures America's been doing thanks to a bunch of dinguses that lose their minds the moment anyone tells them what to do.

The best case scenario was always a short, effective lockdown that got the immediate threat of explosive viral spread under control, then a gradual return to normal life that kept case numbers manageable, with additional precautions in place. "Flatten the curve" wasn't just a catchy slogan, it was the best available strategy for avoiding complete catastrophe. There would have been some economic losses either way, but that was the best approach for balancing that with the death toll, especially before anyone really knew just how dangerous this thing was. America has done a piss-poor job of following that strategy, with a populace that aggressively resisted the initial lockdown (thanks in no small part to a President that publicly downplayed the issue because his self-image was too fragile to accept how serious it was) and responded to gradual easement of restrictions by packing bars and openly flouting further precautions, but it was always the ideal, and that remains a very sound strategy even if we're past the point where it'll help much more.

OhhhJa posted...

You can do your mental gymnastics all you want but I was right and you were not

You were not right, you just ignored the human cost and jumped to the conclusion that was probably going to be best for the economy. People who actually value human life put that first before making economic recommendations, and are only "agreeing" with you now that the lives that can be saved by locking stuff down have already been saved. Jumping to a conclusion is not something to be proud of.

OhhhJa posted...

I still don't support the WHO.

You don't support them, but you're blindly trusting their word and citing it - with no further analysis as to why they're saying such things - as proof that you're right. Does that not seem somewhat less than sensible to you?

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Yeah, the Java version's the way to go, since the Bedrock Edition doesn't have mods. If you're just trying it out for the first time, you aren't likely to notice much of a difference because you won't be modding it right away, but mods ultimately add so much to the game that I can't imagine not being able to use them.

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OhhhJa posted...

Holy false equivalencies. So now leaving your house is the equivalent of making bomb threats? Lmao you lefties are ridiculous

What makes you think I consider those to be equivalent? Speaking of false equivalencies, analogies=/=equivalencies.

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OhhhJa posted...

More like adjl gymnastics to explain away the fact Sweden has handled the pandemic really well without locking the country down.

High school-level statistical analysis is "gymnastics"? Never mind that Sweden really has not handled the pandemic well, compared to similar countries (or to most countries), you're going to call a basic understanding of probability "gymnastics"? That's just sad.

OhhhJa posted...

And now, the WHO has finally come out and said the lockdowns are destructive and not recommended.

The same WHO that you were openly denouncing mere weeks ago for being compromised by Chinese interests and therefore too unreliable to listen to about anything? Interesting change of tune...

OhhhJa posted...

That's what I've been telling all the "hide in your house crowd" like adjl

At no point have I ever told you to hide in your house. Just to treat a deadly pandemic with respect and accept the limitations that must be imposed to allow us to live safely, including social distancing, using masks, washing your hands, and keeping businesses closed that are incompatible with those measures. You can - and have always been able to - go outside if you want, just be sensible in doing so.

OhhhJa posted...

for them to just tell me im stupid and should leave it to the medical professionals. Well now, the medical professionals have changed their mind and agree with me. What do you lot have to say now?

That you should leave it to the medical professionals. If they're saying now that lockdowns aren't a good idea (and given your obvious biases, I'm going to guess that's a very generous interpretation of what they're actually saying), they're saying that based on the data they've been able to collect over the past year, new understandings of how the disease spreads, developments in treatments, the availability of resources, and any number of other factors that all amount to valid, well-reasoned bases for that conclusion. When you've said that, it's been based on the fact that you don't like the lockdowns and want them to go away. That you ultimately arrived at the same conclusion (again, I doubt it's actually that straightforward) does not mean you've been taking the correct approach to this all along. It means you ended up at the right answer through sheer dumb luck despite doing nothing that would allow you to actually defend the conclusion.

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When is American Canada Day? I'm not as familiar with that one.

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zebatov posted...

I cant even believe Corona took a hit. I mean, there are better Mexican beers, so in that sense sure, but I dont see how even the dumbest human could come to the conclusion that the beer is the same as the virus.

I legitimately thought people were joking when they started talking about it back when this whole mess was starting. Sometimes, human stupidity can be truly astounding.

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LeetCheet posted...

No one I know and none of my friends and colleagues doesn't know anyone who has died from it let alone been sick by it.

And I was told by mainstream media that apparently my town was one of the towns where the virus were the most widespread.

Things just doesn't seem to add up by what the media told us.

Country-wide, Sweden has seen approximately one death per 1800 people. Even without taking into consideration that most of those deaths have been in a much higher age bracket than yours, you and your colleagues would have to collectively know 1800 different people to have a ~64% chance of knowing a single person who died of Covid. In practice, given that most of your and your colleagues' acquaintances will be closer to your age, that likelihood is even lower (though I lack exact statistics to use to calculate that more precisely).

Quite simply, you don't need a conspiracy theory to explain something that's very easily explained by basic probability. Your personal experience is limited enough that not personally seeing the direct effects of Covid is quite plausible.

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captpackrat posted...

Here's the best and worst countries in terms of deaths per 100,000 population,

And for a fun little bit of context, skydiving and bungie jumping both carry a fatality rate of ~0.2 per 100,000 jumps. Just in case the "you can't avoid all risk!" crowd wants something to compare it to.

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LeetCheet posted...

But I guess people 5000 miles away knows better how things are here than me who actually lives in said place.

That says more about your awareness of the world around you than anything else. You're just as capable as anyone else of looking at the country's actual statistics instead of relying on personal perception. Sweden's generally been seeing less than 5 Covid deaths a day since the start of August, which is certainly not a bad number, but still not "nobody is dying or sick," as you seem to think it is. One also does not have to live there to understand the cause-and-effect relationship between sending Covid-positive people home from work so they don't infect anyone else and the death rate being relatively low.

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Wanded posted...

exactly, same work, same pay

That said, there is actually a case to be made for paying people less if they move somewhere cheaper, since a large driving force behind the high salaries for people working at big tech companies is the inflated cost of living in Silicon Valley. If rent/mortages don't cost them as much, they can be paid less while maintaining the same (or even better) quality of life, hypothetically allowing the company to improve or discount its services/products without hurting their bottom line.

In practice, those savings will almost certainly end up in the pockets of executives and not benefit anyone, so such cuts should not be taken lying down, but the case can nonetheless be made.

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SunWuKung420 posted...

Trees are alive.

This has been mind-blowing insights with Sunny. Tune in next week to find out whether or not people die when they are killed.

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agesboy posted...

i actually havent dabbled in circuits like at all yet in factorio

Circuits are extremely powerful, but not remotely necessary to beat the game. There are some universal ones that are useful for pretty much everyone (backup power switch, train loaders/unloaders, safe train crossings if you're a pansy who doesn't like facetanking locomotives), but for the most part, you can pretty much always find a non-circuit way to do something and circuits are primarily for people who really want to do it a certain way.

And then there are these crazy bastards:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mgfwwqwxdxY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7lVAFcDX4eM

agesboy posted...

i always felt like i should be playing quickly because of how evolution works

Eh, provided you haven't cranked up biter settings and you don't neglect military research and building turrets and walls in sensible places, you don't really need to rush. Behemoths are somewhat scary, but the top-tier military stuff makes quick work of them (even just uranium rounds; nukes and artillery are more meant for large-scale base clearing). Especially with a solar-focused base and once you start transitioning into electric furnaces, you generally won't be spewing out enough pollution to make evolution a real threat.

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Wanded posted...

who does control the virus spread?

Whoever holds the magic covid syringe, obviously.

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"There are barely any new deaths from Covid now"
"People are being sent home from work when they test positive"

Maybe, just maybe, these two things are related.

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In 7 months, Covid has killed ~5800 Swedish people. Last year, influenza killed 505 Swedish people. Comparing Covid to influenza is not something people who know what they're talking about do, beyond the extremely basic observation that case numbers and deaths for both follow the curve that is common to pretty much all airborne infectious diseases.

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Yellow posted...

Oh no wait your attitude checks out, I just checked the graph for Sweden and your cases exploded, your country is doing horribly for your population size.

I take back that whole thing about your government being competent.

Yeah, Sweden's one of the countries that basically said "let's try doing nothing and see what happens." They've got decent enough health infrastructure and their citizens demonstrated enough common sense at a personal level that their death rate hasn't been as bad as some other places like the US or Brazil, but they did not successfully control the virus' spread.

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Hop103 posted...

Sure, but it needs to focus more on the classic games (1-9 and their sequels) and not X, X-2, 13 & 15

It's almost guaranteed that wouldn't happen. I'd expect something more like Hyrule Warriors to happen and have the base game focus just on the most popular (7) and the most recent (13 and 15). Others would almost certainly show up in DLC, but I very much would not expect a focus on the classic games.

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Having used trains pretty extensively already, I'm incredibly excited for that 1.1 change. I've been intermittently dabbling in a ribbon world (width is limited, length is infinite), and I've been struggling to figure out what circuit wizardry I'll need to have multiple smaller smelters running throughout (the basic plan is to have a single linear train bus running across the top edge of the map, with the factory broken up into small modules that fit within the limited width below there). Being able to simply set a limit for how many trains can path to a stop at once is going to be an absolute gamechanger, especially with the ability to set that limit using circuits.

agesboy posted...

i might grab a mod in the meantime

I'd advise learning vanilla trains before dabbling in any of the bigger train mods. Logistic Train Network (which I haven't personally used, but it's one of the most popular mods) is incredibly powerful and helps tremendously with setting up more complex train networks, but it builds on the vanilla mechanics. Having at least a working understanding of signalling and the like will make it a lot less overwhelming to try integrating LTN's functionality into your factories.

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Bots are actually substantially more UPS-friendly than belts are. That gap has gotten a lot smaller than it once was (I think it was 0.16 that massively optimized belts, which was a couple years ago), but there was a time when a belt-only base breaking 1k SPM was all but impossible for a single computer. Now, belt-based megabases are actually possible, but bots still have an edge, and many people still default to bots because it's so much easier to set them up and make them work with beaconed setups (belt-based beacon lines are VERY squishy). Endgame belts are mostly only used by people who like the challenge of building belt setups.

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I would expect that to be a decent spinoff. One of the biggest challenges they'd have would be deciding who not to include and dealing with the backlash from that decision, since the potential roster is just so massive and so many people would want to see their favourites that somebody's going to end up disappointed. But then Hyrule Warriors did okay only drawing from OoT, TP, and SS (with some others being represented in DLC/later releases), so it'd probably be fine.

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agesboy posted...

@adjl https://i.gyazo.com/c043cc6a9dcad3abf50f6ac6762c3e43.png

help

That's pretty normal. Let the belts embrace you.

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Retroxgamer0 posted...

i got modded for double posting, because i didnt use the edit button. i didnt know it was a requirement.

Disruptive posting is against the ToU, double posting is pretty intuitively more disruptive than simply editing, if you put any amount of thought into the matter.

That said, double posting still happens very commonly without being modded, so if you got modded for it, odds are you were really obnoxious about it.

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