Lurker > Forceful_Dragon

Crossfiyah posted...

https://twitter.com/MrTooDamnChris/status/1324736864511614976

Oh my

Does the person saying "I'm not for socialism" realize that they are implying that they are in fact a gay communist?

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~C~ FD
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I liked "rigged for her pleasure" <_<

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~C~ FD
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The only thing that would make that list better is if we had the date each topic was created to give more historical context

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~C~ FD
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KamikazePotato posted...

Apparently they got data from a bad batch and retracted it. Aw.

We'll be learning more very soon though.

That makes sense, I was staring at nytimes waiting for the update to come through.

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~C~ FD
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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

https://abc3340.com/news/local/alabama-police-chief-on-social-media-about-biden-voters-put-a-bullet-in-their-skull

Not scary at all.

You just don't understand colorful imagery or metaphors. Nobody actually means anything that they say.

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~C~ FD
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RaidenGarai posted...

It took me a second to get the topic title, but damn that's good!

That is why we should always just wait for the new topic when Jakyl isn't around, however long it takes.

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~C~ FD
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charmander6000 posted...

Which is funny because Democrats have already "packed in" their voters due to overwhelmingly dominating cities. Any neutrally drawn map favors Republicans.

While true, there should be a representative per every X population (X will vary slightly from state to state) and so you would still expect that a large city with 5X population would be able to easily carry 5 districts in favor of democrats. But not when the lines get drawn so sections of the city get siphoned by nearby rural districts so the rural districts can still flip red 55/45, but now there are only 3 blue districts distributing the rest of the cities populations.

Thats why during the 'Blue Wave' of 2018 Ohio can end up with 12 republican and 4 democrat representatives despite democrat candidates receiving more total votes. You can't chalk it all up to "cities" because ultimately those large population centers should still influence a proportional number of seats.

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~C~ FD
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and 10 years ago the republicans gerrymandered the ever living hell out of the district lines which is how they have managed to have House representation that is vastly more than their overall vote share should indicate.

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~C~ FD
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Corrik7 posted...

What if 25 states gain one and 25 lose one?

then things would be working as intended? I'm not sure what you mean.

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~C~ FD
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Gravity
Punch
Batman
ATHF
Arnold

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~C~ FD
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The "less than 100%" doesn't come from the ballots themselves, but from a certain President's attempts to discredit the election and steal states via the Supreme Court.

I am 100% confident that if all the ballots are correctly counted and there is no supreme court fuckery that Biden will win PA.

I am not 100% confident that all of the ballots will be correctly counted or that that will be no supreme court fuckery.

Do you see the distinction?

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~C~ FD
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FF9 comes to mind

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~C~ FD
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RaidenGarai posted...

I knew I was forgetting one, thanks!

If he'd be willing to take the 2 minutes to do a quick search he wouldn't be such a joke, but it's certainly more fun this way!

It becomes less "fun" when I see the same BS arguments being parroted on facebook and twitter by the horde of other gullible voters.

But at least by spending the absurdly short amount of time it takes to debunk Ulti I am prepared with links already to debunk the ignorant facebookers.

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~C~ FD
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RaidenGarai posted...

Really? I saw several explanations about the vote drop where Trump didn't have any and Biden had them all, and I linked to a fucking article about the sharpies in Arizona where the elections board said they weren't an issue. You have lost all credibility.

You missed one. There was also "More people voted in Wisconsin than are registered to vote in Wisconsin".

So that's 3 yesterday and todays makes 4?

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~C~ FD
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Yeah, somehow they were under the impression it was at 98% reported and when that got switched to 86% it was clear that AZ was still in play.

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~C~ FD
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UltimaterializerX posted...

Even Nate Silver says no one should have called Arizona.

And Ulti says that Nate Silver has no credibility and no one should ever listen to him about anything.

So I presume this all means you want Arizona to be called.

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~C~ FD
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Yeah the chance of "Georgia and nothing else" is pretty low, thank God

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~C~ FD
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KamikazePotato posted...

'This tweet is unavailable'

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~C~ FD
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LordoftheMorons posted...

Or the Republicans in those states could have allowed mail ballots to be preprocessed like the the Dems were asking them to but were blocked precisely so Trump could pull this stunt

So you're saying previous decisions from the past have any impact on the present?

What's more you're allowed to correlate some effects with their causes?

My mind is being blown

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~C~ FD
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More Dekalb votes came through in GA. Trump's lead is down to 78k

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~C~ FD
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pezzicle posted...

Such as?

Prop 18 would have allowed 17 year olds to vote in primary elections provided their birthdate would fall in time for them to be eligible to vote in the main event.

It's currently failing 55 No to 45 Yes.

There is actually no reason not to allow 17 year olds to have their opinions counted and participate in deciding whose name will end up on the ballot for an election that they will legally be allowed to vote in.

Prop 22 is succeeding and that's the one where Uber and Lyft are literally just writing their own laws for how to classify their employees/contractors rather than adhere to the state requirements that were put in place. The misinformation in california on that prop in particular has been ridiculous, talking about all the things that drivers "gain" through prop 22, but it's bullshit. The uber/lyft drivers gained all that and more when it was ruled that uber/lyft were required to treat them as employees and not contractors, and prop 22 is stripping some important things from them.

Prop 25 would have ended the cash bail system which is a ridiculously biased system, but that's failing by a wide margin too.

Those are the 3 I'm most upset about.

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~C~ FD
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LinkMarioSamus posted...

Apparently Trump got more votes here than he did in 2016. WTF?

Yes. People have been watching him for 4 years now and thought to themselves "this is good. More of this please".

I'm sickened even if Biden manages to hold onto a narrow victory. Sickened that we as a country were not able to use this as an opportunity to distance ourselves from dangerous behavior and rhetoric.

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~C~ FD
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Leafeon13N posted...

California props went almost entirely against my vote.

Assuming nothing changes I am happy with: 14, 17, 19, 20, 24

And unhappy with: 15, 16, 18, 21, 22, 23, 25

But the ones I felt more strongly on seemed to be the ones that went the other way.


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~C~ FD
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In somewhat unrelated news I am disgusted by many of the Proposition results in California.

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~C~ FD
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edit: I'm slow

edit edit: but for giggles here is the source for the WI voting totals:

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/voting-and-registration/p20-583.html

Table 4c, data as of November 2018.

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~C~ FD
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Seriously, when you consider the merits of this particular tweet, then yes, they should 100% "cast doubt" on something that is patently false.


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~C~ FD
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It would be more helpful to link to something addressing that specific screenshot and not just a generic "this is why our elections are secure" website though.

Because we know people are too lazy to do their own research.

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~C~ FD
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I agree it's not censorship, but I understand why people might feel that their toes are being stepped on.

But the counterpoint is that they should do 5 fucking minutes of research to learn that the information they are presenting is wrong. Because that's less than the amount of time it took me to find out not just where the screenshots are from, but why they are misleading, and the obvious explanation for how data being entered would cause that to happen.

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~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

I can see where ulti is coming from though. Where do you draw the line on what is and is not censorship.

Suppose Trump made it illegal for Woodward's newest book to be sold.

That would be censorship.

But suppose he allowed it to be sold, but only if a sticker was placed on every copy stating "some people don't think this book is accurate".

Is that censorship?

What if the sticker read "this book is probably not accurate"?

Or if it read "This book is certainly false"

Or "This book is 100% lies as confirmed by many other sources"

Where is the line? Is the line just "preventing the book to be sold"? And everything else is not censorship at all?

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~C~ FD
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And predictably it has more to do with the way a particular website was updating totals on it's map, and not with how the actual states were reporting the numbers.

Which anyone could have predicted.

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~C~ FD
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And here is a thread explaining how the "suspicious 128k vote dump" and that screenshot in particular are not accurate:

https://twitter.com/ariehkovler/status/1324023579411947520

If this is accurate then twitter is correct to censor those images because they paint a false narrative.

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~C~ FD
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Censoring as in deleting tweets?

Or censoring as in "has a notification saying 'not all the ballots have been counted'"?

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~C~ FD
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So that's referring to ballots that never reached the voters, correct?

So they had to either change their plans to vote-in-person, or decide not to vote?

And I'm not sure how Florida was set up. Were they sending ballots to everyone or only those that requested ballots? Because if they are a request-only state then it would stand to reason that the requests skewed democrat.

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~C~ FD
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_stingers_ posted...

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/105369/web.264614/#/summary

It seems like theres relatively few precincts that haven't reported in those counties, I don't know if they could make up that big of a difference. But they are all centered around Atlanta, so maybe? I don't see any way to see how many votes usually come from an individual precinct so it's hard to gauge

Fulton county is 72% reported and has 400k votes so far.

If the remaining 28% (150k~ votes) are +46 biden like the first 72% then that's a cut of 70k~ right there.

The potential is there.

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~C~ FD
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KamikazePotato posted...

I don't think Cunningham ruined things. If nothing else, today has shown that voters don't care whether or not someone is a sexual offender or a deviant.

Do I need to remind you about the absurdly different standards that Democrats and Republicans get held to?

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~C~ FD
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Dekalb and Fulton County both have a lot of potential Biden votes outstanding. The potential is certainly there.

Floyd county is a low% reporting Condi outstanding for trump, but there are far fewer votes at play.

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~C~ FD
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Arballo leads Nunes by 1800 votes.

Please let this hold on.

Fuck Devin Nunes

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~C~ FD
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But if the current results are weighted by early ballots (which favor Biden) then is not a good representative even in the same counties.

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~C~ FD
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CaptainOfCrush posted...

NYT is king

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-florida.html

I've got that pulled up against Florida results from 2016 and am pouring over it county by county like a crazy person.

Yeah i was having trouble with the notifications telling me to log in so I was trying other ones but now I have NYT open in an incognito tab which seems to be doing the trick.

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~C~ FD
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What interactive map is everyone using?

Is there one where you can click the county to see what percentage of that counties precincts have reported?

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~C~ FD
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Dancedreamer posted...

https://twitter.com/BostonGlobe/status/1323642416008732674

Man drove 2000 miles from Boston to Georgia to vote because his absentee ballot didn't arrive.

That man is a true patriot regardless who he voted for.

It's a shame the postal service was being systematically undermined in the months leading to the election or he likely would not have needed to go through that.

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~C~ FD
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That was my assumption, but it would still be nice to see the forms.

And it's still very reasonable to believe that Trump received a large payment from something and his accounts took a percentage of that and send it to the IRS. They might not know during the year that he will be able to successfully negotiate his obligation down to 0 (or near-0) and so if he receives a $10,000,000 royalty check then it's entirely possible the IRS was cut a multi million dollar check anticipating that he might not successfully weasel his way out of paying.

Which is honestly what you *should* do if you come into money. Like if you play the slots (which you should not do, because math) and win a large jackpot then just take 35-40% and send it into the IRS immediately unless the casino automatically does it for you (some do). The worst case scenario is that you pay too much and you get a nice refund when you file, but it's better than the alternative of spending the entirety of a huge jackpot only to now owe over 20% of the now-spent money in taxes.

.

But we're getting a bit into the weeds. The bottom line is that even if trump does pay millions of dollars in taxes some years, he also seems to understate his liability as much as (and possibly more than) possible so he still isn't paying his fair share.

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~C~ FD
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Jakyl25 posted...

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1323328330821558277?s=21

Definitely something someone does

Well actually, most taxes received are considered pre-paid.

When you have the tax withholding coming out of your check that's you pre paying what you anticipate will be the correct amount for your taxes.

And people who are self employed are expected to make quarterly payments towards their anticipated tax obligation in lieu of having taxes withheld automatically.

(source: IRS employee)

.

And so i've actually been curious for NYT to just release the damn forms because their is some ambiguity about some of the information they have put forth.

When they said "Trump paid $750 in taxes" does that mean his bottom-line-tax-obligation was $750 that year? And if so, had he already made payments in excess of that amount and thus received a refund?

Or was his bottom-line-tax-obligation like $1,000,750, but because his quarterly payments only totaled $1,000,000 then his amount-due-on-april-15th was $750 despite having paid a total of 1M in taxes?

I'm assuming it's the former, and his bottom-line obligation was $750 due to the losses he claimed, but it isn't clear. But for someone with his income it's not unreasonable to believe that years where he is actually paying into taxes, that he would be PRE paying millions of dollars towards his taxes because....that's how the system works. You pay throughout the year.

You are welcome to just pay in a lump sum on April 15th, and some do. But if your remaining amount to be paid is over a certain threshhold (there is a flat amount as well as a percentage of your total obligation) then you will be assessed a fee for not making payments throughout the year.

(source: I've had to explain this exact concept to many taxpayers)

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~C~ FD
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Are they just listing any film that includes a brief thanksgiving scene?

120 minute film that had a 45 second scene about thanksgiving? Thanksgiving movie!

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~C~ FD
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Support people who will support ranked choice voting.

Or try to get ranked choice voting implemented at local/state levels via petitions etc.

But still vote for Biden to make the election an blowout that can't be ignored.

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~C~ FD
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That sounds like some hardcore desync

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~C~ FD
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BetrayedTangy posted...

It's seriously crazy how easy it is to accidentally end up driving while you still have alcohol in your system.

There's been a couple times now where I got drunk the night before and still felt it despite having to go to work the next day.

It's crazy how easy it is to just...not do that.

You know how livers work, you know how alcohol works and you know how time works.

I have to work in 8 hours? Guess I should stop. Etc

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~C~ FD
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TheRock1525 posted...

That's... not as good of an analogy as you think.

With regard to Burisma and Ukraine it's more apt than "hunter set up meetings and joe maybe met people and something umm probably uhhh....corruption!".

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~C~ FD
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"Joe knew his son had some shady European job" isn't even the allegation.

The allegation is that "Hunter used his connections with Joe to get him (Joe) to illegally use his influence to benefit (someone?) by making (some kind of corrupt deal?)"

Which....didn't happen.

The only thing that did happen is a Prosecutor got fired because he (the prosecutor) was FAILING to prosecute corruption. So the only tangible act that occurred is just proof in the opposite direction.

.

It's not even a case of "if there's smoke, then there's a fire".

It's a case of "I know you haven't seen any smoke, an in fact you did see Joe running around with a fire extinguisher earlier. But trust us, there is a fire and Joe started it".

I'm bewildered that it's even still a thing. The people pushing that narrative need to be laughed out of the country.

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~C~ FD
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If he willingly steps down I'd count on it being after the mid terms which would give harris the potential for a partial term and 2 full terms.

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~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw