Lurker > MetalmindStats

I remember some idle discussion back at the start of Round 2 about Rayman being the game that killed the final zero bracket. However, there's currently no bracket with less than 3 points, meaning that it was actually either HGSS or Nier that killed the final zero bracket - most likely Nier, but it's possible that the final zero bracket has more than 3 points now. I'm not sure if that means the last zero was just a cursed favorites bracket or if someone who called every other first-round winner correctly somehow thought Bayo 2 would pull it off over Nier (and also that Nier was least likely to advance from its fourpack), but there you have it.

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Cities: Skylines
Dragon Quest IX: Sentinels of the Starry Skies
Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker 2
Dragon Quest VI: Realms of Revelation
Fortune Street
Nine Hours, Nine Persons, Nine Doors
Pac-Man Championship Edition DX
Pokmon Sun / Moon
Pokmon Super Mystery Dungeon
Professor Layton and the Unwound Future
Race the Sun
Sid Meier's Civilization VI
Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS / Wii U
Tales of Maj'Eyal
The Legend of Heroes: Trails in the Sky

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MechanicalWall posted...

Leon did the x-stats for the Smash/Odyssey Division and they look wacky if you take Smash to win.

Welcome to the Nintendo hierarchy. Now, I'm not 100% certain that Ultimate trumps Odyssey in the hierarchy, and I actually think Kirby's been a fraud hidden behind fluky draws and waiting to get exposed for quite a while, but rSFF provides a very easy explanation if Ultimate wins.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

Probably the best way of looking at the hypothetical MK64 question is: which games in the final 16 do you think it could take?

I would take it over every single one of the games you mentioned in this post, most likely even in this contest's setting. As for Dark Souls vs. MK64, I would probably take MK64 in an ordinary game contest, but I'd probably side with Dark Souls in this contest.

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azuarc posted...

You've played all sixteen?

No, I only own 3 of the 16, all of which I've at least played for some length of time.

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Super Mario Galaxy 2 (one of the three losers this round I've played for any length of time)

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Kirby
Bleck
Ashley
-

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Leonhart4 posted...

I'm in the middle of a Persona 4 Golden replay, but I'm not playing it for the first time, so it doesn't really count for the purposes of this challenge!

Oh. Well in that case, I don't know why I bothered to write all those words about the final 16 challenge when I don't even have any valid options myself.

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Mario and Indiana Jones. That has to be a definite no from me.

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LAW Fodder for Padme, Low Fodder for the other two.

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Metal has beaten Deiland.

I think everyone who's seen my previous posts ITT has gotten a pretty good idea about what I think of Deiland by now. I don't have much to add to those previous posts - Deiland is seriously unpolished in so many ways, but the gameplay loop resulting from its promising premise sucked me in pretty quickly. I wouldn't call it a good game, necessarily, but I certainly liked it, and I'm glad GotM convinced me to give it a try.

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SuperNiceDog posted...

Kudos to everyone still alive right now, you have a great bracket if you are still alive in the Guru at this point.

Or some wild upset pick or combination of upset picks that's still not strictly impossible at this point, either/or. If today's results hold, there's potentially no more than a dozen Gurus who can win it all, depending on exactly which permutations of post-break results you consider safe.

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pjbasis posted...

What would BotW need to be in contention for top 10 all time?

Or at least top 10 in 2015

Assuming a constant Life is Strange, Breath of the Wild is only behind Chrono Trigger in 2015's adjusted stats, and marginally above Ocarina of Time. Of course, that's a shaky assumption, but LiS is the only game in BotW's path so far to have made a 2015 appearance.

Assuming a constant Walking Dead (another questionable assumption of course), Breath of the Wild needs about 69.6% or more against Dragon Quest XI to break into 2015's adjusted top 10.

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2 and 5, though RE2 will need to escape its division for me to retain the former.

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pjbasis posted...

Something would have to benefit enough to take its place though, and I see no candidates.

To be fair, there is one new game (Breath of the Wild) in the GameFAQs top 10 versus 2015. It's theoretically possible that BotW has kicked out RBY, but RBY would need to have fallen since 2015, which is rather unlikely as KP pointed out.

I'd guess the current top 10 in contest strength (when discounting major rallies) is something like this:

1. Ocarina of Time
2. Chrono Trigger
3. Final Fantasy VII
4. Breath of the Wild
5. Link to the Past
6. Pokmon RBY
7. Super Mario 64
8. Super Mario World
9. Final Fantasy VI
10. Majora's Mask

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Sharinnegan posted...

well, we're about to see anyways

what does Pokemon need to get on Nier for hearthstone to end around the same as its 2015 value?

Hearthstone would have to finish drastically ahead of its 2015 value to suggest that there's actually some truth to your argument that voters just hadn't heard of it back then.

A finish only somewhat ahead would simply suggest my argument about its current strength relative to 2015 and the comparison of votes by default against Divinity versus antivotes against Ocarina is wrong.

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Sharinnegan posted...

Diablo is a classic franchise, thats not at all comparable.

Don't lie to me and claim you'd be confident in taking Diablo II over the original BioShock.

Sharinnegan posted...

hearthstone wasnt even a year old by the time that contest happened. this site's userbase doesn't care for PC gaming for the most part, and card games in general were a ridiculously niche genre before hearthstone happened and , over the years, started spawning many other games inspired by it.

Okay, but we're not talking about some obscure indie game from a niche genre like a Slay the Spire or a NecroDancer here. We're talking about the Warcraft franchise and the Blizzard name, both of which automatically garner attention here and anywhere. Of course, GameFAQs had no reason to care about Hearthstone at the time (and still doesn't), but that's not the same as claiming a great proportion of the voterbase hadn't even heard of it.

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Agree with half_silver.

I'll also nominate Ecco for re-ranking, because I don't see the appeal of a dolphin on the front page being enough to compensate for games no one cares about anymore. Ecco's probably even weaker than Starfy, given the latter's placement in the Nintendo orbit.

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Sharinnegan posted...

Hearthstone was too new in 2015. with this site's userbase, a lot of voters (most even, arguably) likely didnt even know what the hell a "hearthstone" was

And you still haven't provided any evidence for the rather preposterous claim that this site wouldn't know the first thing about a Warcraft-branded Blizzard game. Consider that 2015's voterbase was more or less the same as the current voterbase that's sufficiently tuned-in to prefer Diablo III over BioShock Infinite, even though the former had possibly the worst launch for a major game ever at the time, whereas the latter was treated as the best thing since sliced bread for the first few months after its launch.

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Leonhart4 posted...

Hearthstone isn't finishing dead last in the X-Stats and it won't be particularly close to it either.

Dead last in this contest's X-Stats is an altogether greater degree of weakness than dead last in 2015's X-Stats, though. Hearthstone not being in contention for dead last this time around doesn't mean it isn't weaker than it was in 2015.

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Sharinnegan posted...

there's no way this Hearthstone is nearly as weak as 2015 HS which was literally one of the weakest things we've ever seen in a contest.

Did you see how badly Ocarina was antivoted in literally every single one of its other matches that year? I think it's perfectly plausible that a Hearthstone that's likely weaker than 2015 against the same foe, but benefited from apathy votes against Divinity, is no stronger than a Hearthstone that got to benefit from ~5% of voters automatically picking against Ocarina regardless of its opponent.

Also, Suikoden II's 2015 strength was right around Okami and Shadow of the Colossus's 2009 strength, which both should be great comparisons for 2020 Nier Automata.

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Mario Kart 7
Pokemon X/Y
Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS

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I have nothing new or original to say about the high quality of this episode of The Show, so I'll just move on to my thoughts from the last ~hour:

• My perspective on the incoming Division 2 finals is totally different. First off, those rallies can only go so far to excuse Mass Effect 2's result against Horizon, considering they only reduced its percent by 2 points from the 57 it was otherwise trending towards. Also again, its win here wasn't necessarily a sitewide upset depending on your perspective; yes, fewer than half of all brackets called it correctly, but that's far from a guarantee that any other game in its eightpack had more sitewide respect.
• It doesn't help Horizon's case that 55% on Borderlands 2 (which ME2 extrapolation suggests has fallen from 2015) is not exactly a convincing result, at least in retrospect. It certainly doesn't seem to suggest it would comfortably beat the likes of Doom and FE: Awakening, which is necessary for ME2 to look better than RE2. All the way back in the first round, I contended that whatever escaped from Division 2's bottom half would beat ME2, and if anything, I'm only feeling more confident about that claim now.
• I have to agree with KP that GTAV's loss to P4G was yet another GTA choke, mainly because it was a lower percent than RDR even though GTAV was clearly stronger in 2015 and had plenty of reason to benefit from GotD respect voting on top of that - all of which KP already pointed out, of course. Then again, it's GTA, so I'm kicking myself for not sticking with my first impressions in Division 4, which applied the Yoblazer test to P4G. That being said, I'm not sure about Yo's claim that the Persona fanbase wouldn't let P4G lose in a close match against GTAV, considering the equally devoted Hollow Knight fanbase was sure content to let their darling lose in a close match against FFXV of all things.
• I'm astonished that none of you gave Breath of the Wild your star award this time; I'd sooner see it meriting such a title unanimously after such an earthshaking result against FFXV. I do agree with Yo's choice of Skyrim as turd of the week covered, though the past few days' results have since left it with a path towards redemption this round - should it choose to take it, of course.

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LAW Fodder for Johnny Cash and Low Fodder for the other two.

Edit: Also nominate Mr. Driller.

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Ah yes, because one SFF match and one match that puts Nier on par with Suikoden II represent amazing results, don't you know?

There's also no grounds to call HGSS's results to date amazing because we have no gauge on anything it's beaten, but at least it might be a hidden beast after all.

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squexa posted...

projecting through a constant 2015 Civ

squexa posted...

strong assumption

I can't say I remotely agree with this. Persona 5 being this strong just doesn't pass the eye test; as mentioned before, there's no reason for Sonic Mania to be anywhere near Galaxy 2, and Persona 5 failed to break 80% on one of the most hated games in the bracket in the first round. Civ 5 has reason to decline after Civ 6's lackluster reception, and more importantly because that P5/ACIV match doesn't look transitive after everything we've seen this contest.

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GameLord113 posted...

Even though the final here is going to be between Skyrim

I have bad news for you.

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Ngamer64 posted...

You can play through the co-op online with anyone else who owns the game on steam. You two could coordinate by talking over voice chat in the B8 Discord. I won't have time to do so myself, but hopefully you can find a partner in this topic!

That's true, and another possibility, though even if anyone does want to play with me, they'll have to tolerate my near-total lack of puzzle-solving skill.

Anyways, here's my thoughts on the next 50 minutes of this episode:

• I agree with Yo about The Last of Us' problems in a GotD format, which probably aren't helped by the sequel delay. That being said, I also think Diablo III is being unfairly underestimated much like Ys was last round - after the mother of all rocky launches, Blizzard has really turned things around and made it become a genuinely well-liked game in most circles. On the other hand, BioShock Infinite has sunk hard in the six years since its release to become not so well-liked; combine that with Diablo III's nature as a game working to its advantage relative to both BioShock and TLoU here, and I'm not surprised Arkham City looked better last round.
• I'm not strongly opposed to the idea of an all-fictional character battle myself. However, I think its time has passed, and most of the voters who remain in these contests at best won't care enough to vote for practically any broader fictional character. It also pretty much has to have only characters who have appeared in a video game before (so no Calvin and Hobbes), and it's a stretch to justify retiring Link from a totally different format, which is unfortunate because Link would stomp any other fictional character on GameFAQs at this point.
• KP's WRPG hierarchy idea suddenly has me feeling very worried about my bracket even if it does somehow survive HGSS/Nier. I can't deny that Skyrim has taken a clear hit in terms of affection and prestige since 2015, and likewise that Dark Souls has ascended to a privileged status among gaming fanbases far and wide since then. Plus, of course, Dark Souls has just looked better than Skyrim to date.
• I think there's still an argument to be had for Nier beating HGSS at this point, but that argument rests entirely on HGSS being an untested fraud now that Hearthstone extrapolation only puts Nier about on par with Suikoden II. In retrospect, it probably shouldn't be surprising that Nier is currently weak in light of its similarities (other than genre) to Okami and Shadow of the Colossus, neither of which exactly excelled in their first game contest.

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Spider-Verse (Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse)

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"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
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$100M on Persona 5.
$50M on a parlay on Persona 5 and Red Dead Redemption 2.

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"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
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Agree with half_silver. Second King Dice.

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Plus a Zen screenshot he didn't post here:

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raptor36000 posted...

Also based of off this performance witcher isnt touching 35 against zelda.

Um, no? Did you not even see the extrapolation earlier in this topic that pegged Breath of the Wild at ~69-71% indirectly on Galaxy 2? Based on that, Witcher 3 will break 35% even if said extrapolation proves 100% transitive to the finals, and I personally think Witcher 3 will also benefit significantly from the circumstances.

raptor36000 posted...

The simple fact here is that these contests are meant to reflect what the website thinks is or isnt game of the decade.

Straight from the entry page (archived here: http://web.archive.org/web/20200315083650/https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/features/gotd_entry):

Don't forget: This is not a contest to see which game is your favorite, or even which one is critically the best. It's all a big popularity contest, and visitors who have never visited GameFAQs before will be sure to stop in and vote.

And again further down:

Remember, it's all a big Internet popularity contest. Outside forces can influence the results, and have done so in the past. We take many steps to prevent vote-stuffing by individuals, but the power of the masses is unstoppable.

That hopefully makes it abundantly clear that rallying in fact doesn't go against the point of these contests. Also, keep in mind that small/midsized rallies have always been a part of these contests, ever since they began in 2002. Are you suddenly going to throw out a huge chunk of past results because voters rallied from other parts of the Internet happened to influence them, or would you prefer to raise said past contests onto an imaginary pedestal?

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MetalmindStats posted...

I played some more Deiland a bit earlier, and I have to admit that it's become pretty difficult for me to put down.

Hence why I just put even more time into this odd little game, not so long after my previous session.

Anyways, I still doubt I'll beat it by the time the drawing happens, so I'll nominate The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim.

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LusterSoldier posted...

Here's my suggestion for bonus matches during the 6 day break:

I don't like this idea, both because it feels arbitrary (though that's to some extent a problem with any bonus match we could conduct during the break), and because it would pretty much spoil the entire rest of the contest through extrapolation.

Anyways, for me, it's always a pleasure to be able to listen to and share my thoughts on a brand-new episode of The Show! This time, 53 minutes in:

• I most certainly like the idea of the final 16 challenge, but I'm unsure about whether or not I'll actually go through with the challenge itself. My computer is my only (relevant) gaming platform as of right now, and I'm not interested in buying a full-price game just to participate in this challenge, which means I have three choices: Dragon Quest XI, (presumably) Portal 2, and Skyrim. I already beat the first two of those quite recently, and as much as I loved them, I'm not interested in revisiting them so soon (and I have no one to play Portal 2's co-op campaign with). That leaves Skyrim, and between my bracket pre-determining which matches I will or won't root for Skyrim in and my gaming time being occupied with other games right now, I just don't know about trying to get into it for the third time.
• KP, I wish I knew how to whip up anything worth a damn in Photoshop. I do get your confusion, though, considering how similar our usernames (among other things) are.
• I think I'd agree with the opinion that RE2/BB was the best match of this contest to date, but I still prefer a handful of CBX matches, particularly Mario/Samus II.
• I figured Sonic would win with anticlimactic ease - this is exactly the type of site that would actually care about Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of DANA, for one - but certainly not this anticlimactic. Also, to nitpick a bit, a 49% pick rate is high enough that GameFAQs as a whole very likely favored Sonic over SMB here, and SMB almost certainly would have made the bracket even without the Guru support, looking at the seeds of comparable games such as Bastion, Isaac: Rebirth, and VVVVVV.

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Cynthia (Pokmon)
Fox McCloud (Star Fox)
Ike (Fire Emblem: Path of Radiance)
Link (The Legend of Zelda)
Mr. Game & Watch (Game & Watch)
Poochy (Yoshi's Island)
Princess Peach (Super Mario)
Samus Aran (Metroid)
The Dog (Duck Hunt)
Wario (Super Mario)

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I played some more Deiland a bit earlier, and I have to admit that it's become pretty difficult for me to put down.

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raptor36000 posted...

Either all rallies are bad or all of them are allowed, its pretty weird to see people criticize the undertale and draven rallies but then be fine when a game they like does it instead.

To this, I will respond with Yoblazer's words, which I fully agree with: "How as a community can we not realize that the degree of something is what matters?"

The key difference is that minor/midsized rallies that don't completely disenfranchise normal GameFAQs voters actually make matches more interesting overall, whereas Melee and Undertale predictably mowing over everything in their path made 2015 infinitely less interesting.

Also, there is no possible way The Witcher 3 (or whatever makes the finals in its stead) fails to break 35% on Breath of the Wild, and heck, I'm still expecting it to reach 40% even without a major rally.

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Blue (Pokmon)
Bowser (Mario)
Donkey Kong
Giovanni (Pokmon)
Goombella (Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door)
Kirby
Luigi (Mario)
Mario
Mewtwo (Pokmon)
Yoshi (Mario)

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AxemRedRanger posted...

Me and him had different votes on Skyla this time!

Oh whoops, I meant to agree with your votes (as usual), but I also wanted to include half_silver, because I was thinking they'd be the same votes as usual.

So yes, agree with Axem, to clarify.

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Dark Souls with 71.55%
The Last of Us with 53.21%
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim with 64.87%
NieR: Automata with 50.27%

CHANGE

God of War with 54.80%

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$50M on New Vegas.
$50M on a parlay on Galaxy 2 and New Vegas.

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Agree with half_silver and Axem again.

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I'm sorry to report that the Steam version of Deiland is somewhat buggy in its own right. This most recent session, I once ran into a bug where 2/3 NPCs on Ankora wouldn't give proper dialog, preventing me from buying, selling, and accepting/redeeming quests from them. There was also a rather more humorous glitch where Mun sank into Ankora's terrain. Regardless of the ...questionable all-around polish on this particular package, though, I'm still enjoying it - I just don't know if I'll manage to beat it before the end of the month.

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Agree with Axem, I guess.

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Solid winner, and a great redemption run for Yoshi! Now if only I hadn't forgotten to make that one last save - sorry, red13n.

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$60 million on Grand Theft Auto V.

Ugh, I wanted to be able to sit out today like Moltar did the last two days. If only I had been more confident in my bets the past two days so I could afford to do so...

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MetalmindStats posted...

Speaking of which, I'll nominate the Overlook Hotel next.

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Amazing work here! It all felt just a bit over the top, with help from your perfectly-suited voice, but I'd argue that's the right tone to strike for something like this.

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SuperNiceDog posted...

I think because you have Witcher making the finals, which is a risk

No, there's plenty of Witcher 3 brackets in the Guru, many of which have similar picks otherwise from this stage forward.

I took a look in azuarc's handy spreadsheet, which tells me that even if GTAV and Xenoblade both win, fpce666 still gets to squeeze out a Guru win if GTAV wins its division and everything else goes their bracket's way.

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Speaking of which, I'll nominate the Overlook Hotel next.

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