Lurker > MetalmindStats

charmander6000 posted...

Yeah, Tekken 7 should be stronger, but the two games are weak enough on GameFAQs that franchise votes could give MK11 the win.

I think I'd take MK11 over Tekken 7 straight up due to apathy votes, but I'd guess Tekken would look indirectly better against most possible combinations of opposition, just as we saw this contest.

KamikazePotato posted...

Awakening is projected to get, what, 40% on Mass Effect 2 if you account for all the rallies? That seems like it lines up with pre-contest expectations.

2015 stats project a ME2 win with barely 55%, and ME2 seemed to have at least as much reason to decline as Awakening pre-contest.

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

I think Tekken 7 is almost certainly stronger than MK11, and it makes sense considering the former has a distinct fanbase and strong position in the FGC, whereas the latter is so hated it was only going to last one year at Evo, even though Mortal Kombat is the second biggest fighting game franchise. MK11 was purely relying on blind franchise votes from a series that's normally quite a bit stronger than Tekken, and Mario Odyssey was one of the worst possible opponents to do that against, but I don't think that non-transitivity is a strong enough argument against Tekken.

@LusterSoldier (or anyone else) do you have the second chance scoring saved in cache or anywhere else?

@GildedFool it's archived in lines 133-141 of the following paste: https://pastebin.com/cHkNjfBX

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

My very late thoughts about the rest of this episode (excluding the parts about today and yesterday's matches):

• I know Pokmon entrants are infamous for being inconsistent from round to round, as Yo pointed out, but that didn't actually seem to be the case in 2018. Most notably, Pikachu's 66% on Scorpion, 63% on Kratos, 55% on Yoshi, 57% on Zero, and 50% on Mega Man all absolutely looked like they came from the same character.
• I think Witcher 3 and God of War are too different in terms of genre and platform bias for direct hierarchy to kick in. However, there's valid lines of 2015 extrapolation and adjustment thereof that suggest it would struggle to beat Galaxy 2, which is about what I'd personally expect.
• Dark Souls frankly choked last round - with how bad Skyrim's looked so far, there's zero excuse for anything that makes Dark Souls look even worse - and it would probably struggle to beat TLoU if it weren't for the leak.
• I think all the HGSS rally fear misunderstands how rallies work in the Reddit era. To put it simply, the fanbase needs to be passionately united behind their game as a GotD contender, and the community needs to be one that's not so busy as to bury something like this, and I don't think HGSS satisfies either of these characteristics. That just leaves hentai rallies, which certainly aren't going to make a 3-4% difference given how low the follow-through rate is.
• About the Witcher 3/Persona 5 debate, just ask yourself if you'd really think Portal 2 would seriously contend for the win against Galaxy 2. If not, which seems like the obvious conclusion right now, then it'll take a miracle for Persona 5 to score that upset.
• Skyrim can absolutely beat Dark Souls with 51%, if it would have gotten ~53-54% without rallies. It's not as though 51% is some magical tipping point that would cause the Dark Souls rallies to hulk up for a win; Hollow Knight among others should have disproven that already.

Thanks for another great episode everyone, especially TPLink for your x-stat deep dives.

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

I messed up the link last time, so here's a repost:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dVVZaZ8yO6o

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

Kobe
Kobe

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

Sadly, I forgot to screenshot yesterday's pictures. Hopefully someone else has such an image.

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

$50M on Xenoblade.

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

Luigi
Blue
Giovanni
-

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dVVZaZ8yO6o&t=38s

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

Agree with Axem. Also nominate Mike Wazowski.

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

Bowser (overall)

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt vs. God of War - MechanicalWall
Persona 5 vs. Portal 2 - MetalmindStats

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

DQXI
Kobe

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

$25M on Resident Evil 2.
$25M on a parlay on Breath of the Wild and Resident Evil 2.

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

Rool
-
Falco
-

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

Also agree with half_silver.

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

Kamekguy posted...

Mario Party DS Tier

Wow, how DARE you insult my precious nostalgia like that! While we're on the subject, though...

All the playable characters being tiny on the boards and in the minigames of Mario Party DS

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

https://pastebin.com/cHkNjfBX

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

-
Bowser Jr.
Rosalina
-

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

Agree with half_silver.

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

Anything mint chocolate probably.

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

DK
Olimar
Rayquaza
-

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

Amazing, turns out HM was the true villain of the 2013 contest by denying Link the crew curse he needed to beat Draven.

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

ZenOfThunder

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

Agree with half_silver.

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

Drop: Pokmon Super Mystery Dungeon (leaves it still at one nomination, since your tally missed post 7)

Add: The Jackbox Party Pack 3

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

Leonhart4 posted...

The New Vegas rally was the counter rally! DS3 definitely started rallying first and that's why the match got close, and then New Vegas rallied to put it away.

Well, regardless of that match's rallying trajectory, I've tried and failed to find any SFW Dark Souls III rally that had any sort of traction, both in Zen's topic and on Reddit itself. Of course, I shouldn't need to say that NSFW rallies are inherently going to have a much poorer follow-through rate.

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

Leonhart4 posted...

Both sides were rallying pretty good, to be fair, so it probably just pushed the result close to what it would have normally been.

Nah, as far as I can tell, Dark Souls III only had hentai rallies to counter the famous Redditor's 480-upvote New Vegas rally.

ZeldaTPLink posted...

You could argue there was a new Civ game but then why is that game not in the bracket instead of Civ 5?

As perhaps the only B8er who's outright part of the Civ fanbase, let me quote part of a post I made in a previous Show topic:

I could see Civ 5 getting some backlash because Civ 6 is not exactly the most well-liked game, both among Civ fans who lament its SimCity aspects, and among casual Civ players liable to complain about its overpriced DLC.

Anyways, more importantly than that, I think Assassin's Creed IV wasn't exactly a transitive entrant this contest - it was able to rake in the apathy votes against Civ 5, but those collapsed versus Persona 5 the next round, making it (and by extension Civ 5) look worse than it 'should' have.

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

Agree with half_silver, though I'd guess Tony Montana is pretty close to LAW at this point.

Third Andrew Ryan, Servbot, and Ultros.

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

52 minutes in:

• To add to TPLink's point 14 minutes in, I feel it's worth noting that the Second Chance contest grants 0 points for incorrectly predicting the winner of any given match, regardless of how close your forecast might be to that game's actual percent. Between that and only whole-percent predictions being allowed, I don't see the oracle aspect as the focus; rather, I prefer to think of it as Allen's way of ensuring one throwaway number won't decide the Second Chance winner.
• As greatone mentioned earlier in this topic, casual bracketmakers' Overwatch respect is the biggest explanation for why Xenoblade's prediction percent was so low last round. In fact, the mere 16.7% of brackets that called Xenoblade's win represent 43% of those with it advancing to the third round, and 41% of brackets didn't predict Three Houses even getting the chance to lose to Xenoblade. Together, those percentages imply Xenoblade/3H was practically a 50-50 match among casual brackets that had the two facing off.
• I think Witcher 3's showing against Galaxy 2 has been unfairly ragged on. The fact is that there's only so high a percentage a Western entrant, any Western entrant, can score on a major Nintendo entrant here on GameFAQs, as many voters will side with Nintendo by default in this type of match. The previous high-water mark for anything Western in such a scenario was Skyrim's 59% on GoldenEye back in 2015; for comparison's sake, Geralt the character could only muster 56% on Rosalina in 2018. It's not the jaw-dropper Witcher 3's first two matches were, sure, but there's very good reasons for that, which KP among others already identified long ago.
• Regarding TPLink's GoW/Souls stat comps, I'm wary of counting on a game that needed the second(?) largest single rally of the contest so far just to get 54% on Dark Souls III to have remained static or even to have fallen in lockstep with MGSV. New Vegas has good reasons to have declined in its own right, and on top of that, the original Dark Souls would score less than 60% on Dark Souls III indirectly if you take the New Vegas/MGSV comp at face value, which looks all kinds of wrong.

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

Falcon
Mona
-
Shulk

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

ZaziGuado posted...

Terraria

I hate to do this to you as the topic host, but Terraria also made GotD, stuck against BioShock Infinite in the first round.

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

Also agree with half_silver I guess.

Second re-ranking Doctor Doom.

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

NBIceman posted...

The entire Chikorita line

banshiryuu posted...

Crawdaunt

Snrkiko posted...

rhyperior

I like most of the Pokmon that have been named ITT, but especially these.

I'll also suggest the Wingull and Ferroseed lines.

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

I really want to watch Never Rarely Sometimes Always myself.

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

Oh god that last write-up had me rolling.

Also, I forgot just how badly both Sackboy and Teemo got fodderized that contest.

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

KamikazePotato posted...

Here's one out of the seven or so cross-references I used when adjusting the stats:

Hmm, that's very interesting, and I also have to admit it's totally possible that MGS3 was running its own bandwagon after its close win over MGS and canceled out Mario RPG's bandwagon.

The upcoming Witcher 3/God of War match should hopefully be telling, since Witcher 3 gets only 55.45% if both Galaxy 2 and New Vegas are static. If Witcher 3 shoots for 60% like I'm expecting, Galaxy 2 boosting a bit from Nintendo's rising fortunes alone won't be an adequate explanation - either New Vegas will have fallen a bit in its own right, or it was overrated to begin with. Actually, when I put it that way, I guess Witcher 3 will have to score an unrealistically high percent to prove my theory, hm.

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

Leonhart4 posted...

Also Persona 4 has literally never lost a close match. It's surprisingly clutch.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/ 3474-division-8-round-1-gta4-persona-4-sf4-ssbb (remove the space)

Also, I vote for Mario/Samus 2018 as the next retrospective, for totally-not-biased reasons! (Plus, I do think it will actually be relevant to predicting SSBU/SMO.)

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

KamikazePotato posted...

Everything related to RE4 was adjusted independently of SMRPG because SMRPG was super weird that year.

Ok, I stand corrected on that detail, but it doesn't change my overall point. If you take your stats at face value, RE4 fares better against Mario RPG than MGS3, even though MGS3 improved by 3% against a Mario RPG that was bandwagoning even harder than the game RE4 faced. Whatever it is you did exactly with Division 7, I don't really trust it, and every single game in that division looks inflated to me at least.

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

ZeldaTPLink posted...

Anyone has an objection or is GoW actually that good?

As I mentioned in Discord previously, my objection is that New Vegas is overrated in the 2015 stats thanks to the weird way KP adjusted Mario RPG and its path. Specifically, Mario RPG's value looks to be peak bandwagon, yet RE4 (and only RE4, of Mario RPG's opponents) was adjusted upwards to compensate for that bandwagon, without shifting Mario RPG down to a number representative of its natural strength.

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

G&W
Boo
-
Waluigi

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

Low Fodder for all.

Fourth the Lemming nomination.

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

KamikazePotato posted...

one it likely achieved by overperforming on SMRPG, as its only other result before then was an iffy match against Shenmue

I think the explanation for why GTAV's 2015 x-stat value is inflated goes a little deeper than this. I do agree that an overperformance on Mario RPG was part of it, but only in the sense of a geolocation mismatch bolstering GTAV a bit relative to a draw against a more trends-neutral game of Mario RPG's strength. More importantly, I would contend that Mario RPG itself is too high, as the bandwagon it was running in its last two wins made it a totally different entity from the natural-strength Mario RPG that scored 54% on Oblivion and 57% on GTAV.

Anyways, hopefully next round will give us a full referendum or at least an eye test on the weakest Top 16 game. Unfortunately, that might be muddied up by DQXI's greater-than-normal overlap with BotW and P4G's possible bandwagon after knocking off two straight Rockstar games in close matches.

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

KamikazePotato posted...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6144-best-game-ever-day-24-round-2-shadow-of-the-colossus-vs-red

RDR isn't very good. It ranked 70th in the 2015 stats. It's only notable in this contest because of the weak field, and even then it's not a game that wins more than one match in most of these divisions. It looks okay now because the top half of Division 4 had a bunch of close matches but that just hides that Persona 4 Golden is by far the weakest Top 16 entrant we've got. Unless Persona 4 catches some weird bandwagon from having such a low pick rate to get this far, it's going to get absolutely exposed by Xenoblade next round.

We all know GTAV is overrated in the 2015 stats, and it's probably declined since then on top of that, but I'm seriously unconvinced it's by enough to make P4G the weakest Top 16 game this contest. Plus, as much as you're ragging on RDR's lack of strength, its 38% on MGS through SotC is actually a pretty respectable result by this contest's standards.

In contrast, what exactly has Dragon Quest XI done to merit respect - underperformed Suikoden II against a Monster Hunter game? Yes, World launched its franchise firmly into the mainstream, but how much does that really matter on GameFAQs? Blown out a weak indie? P4G also did that, with a much better percent against a game that's probably not substantially weaker than Bastion.

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

CHANGE

Resident Evil 2 with 52.09%
Dark Souls with 54.31%

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

Sure, let's see if you have any original material.

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

ZeldaTPLink posted...

This is, of course, assuming a constant Bayonetta, which I think is fairly reasonable assumtption

See, this is where I disagree. Extrapolating through 2015 Bayonetta 2, Nier gets ~84.5% on 2015 Hearthstone, versus 81% on 2020 Hearthstone through Divinity II. Yes, you could argue that current Hearthstone is stronger thanks to the circumstances of its opponent, but that's a drastic difference regardless. Bayonetta 2 might be constant with a fair draw, and it might even be stronger (though Tropical Freeze makes me doubt that), but it's clearly weaker given its thoroughly unfair draw of SFF from Nier.

On the subject of Galaxy 2/Mass Effect, a Galaxy 2 win in the high 50s feels about right to me, for a ~10% swing. I do think Galaxy 2 has probably improved a bit with Nintendo's rising fortunes, but that's mostly on ME. As greatone mentioned, its ME series proxy appeal should make it particularly susceptible to the whole Andromeda fiasco and its resulting devaluation of the series name.

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

Guzma
Gadd
Yoshi
Ganon

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

Agree with Axem.

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild with 78.11%
Resident Evil 2 with 52.90%
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate with 50.78%
Xenoblade Chronicles with 54.22%
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt with 58.53%
Persona 5 with 56.12%
Dark Souls with 53.21%
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim with 54.01%

---

"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!