Lurker > TsunamiXXVIII

Paratroopa1 posted...

Nobody's going to pass level 6

Yeah, I just realized that there's no good reason to force all three to be the same type if it's not a combined score type of level like the one I had last year. I'll change it next week.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Level 4:

Nebraska (-5) to defeat Minnesota

It's kind of tempting to just say Clemson will cover the spread against NC State, but I'm not feeling it.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Change

Ness with 61% of the vote
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Team Rocket Elite posted...

TsunamiXXVIII, you can't submit predictions for matches that have already started.

Of course I can. They just won't count.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

MAX parlay (Zero, Wario, Knuckles)
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Wow, I actually got here first and get my full pick of the group. I'm not sure what to do with that.

Sora vs. Ryo Hazuki -
Neptune vs. Pokemon Trainer Red -
Crash Bandicoot vs. Cecil Harvey -
Big Boss vs. Ridley -
Alucard vs. Princess Peach -
Yuna vs. Godot -
Kefka vs. L-Block -
Kazuma Kiryu vs. Bomberman -

2B vs. Cayde-6 -
Shadow the Hedgehog vs. Ness - TsunamiXXVIII
Terra Branford vs. Charizard -
Bowser vs. Gordon Freeman -
Phoenix Wright vs. Chris Redfield -
Ike vs. Joel -
Estelle Bright vs. Isaac -
Kirby vs. Guile -
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Yu
Aya
DK
Dragonborn
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

I honestly did try to do this yesterday (last week's had already purged by then). Computer wouldn't register existence of Internet access.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

You knew it'd happen eventually. It does at least once every year. I at least managed to get the capture of the opening post, but only because I so rarely go on the computer that I post this from--which means the only person's picks for last week that I have access to are my own. I'm posting it exactly as it was rather than putting in the fact that I actually finally advanced last week. I have no idea if Level 6 is necessary, so I'm posting it. Not that I really planned out what it would be, so it'll probably be awful.

Rules
- State which level you're on when you make your pick. Usually it should be obvious, but say it anyway.
- Deadline for making a pick is the start of the earliest game that you're picking. This means that if you are on a level that involves picking multiple teams, ALL of your teams are locked as soon as one of your teams has kicked off. If you don't have a pick in by the start of the early games, you can just pick later games, but if you can't make an eligible pick out of the games that haven't started yet, you can't advance that week.
- Conferences featured in games may be imposed at certain levels, but unless otherwise stated, any game(s) featuring two FBS teams are eligible.
- I'll list some marquee games each week, but you're not restricted to these. If you pick other games, make sure that your lines can be verified.

Level 1: Pick one game against the spread.

Level 2: Pick three over/unders; 2 out of three passes.

Level 3: Three-team teaser. Tease the lines six points in your favor, two wins and a push or three wins needed to pass.

Level 4: First! Pick a winless team to get their first win or an undefeated team to suffer their first loss. If you are predicting a favorite to win, they must also cover the spread (a push is sufficient). You may also select "none" if you think that every game between two winless or two undefeated teams will result in the favorite winning but failing to cover the spread and that no other teams will get their first win or suffer their first loss. Also, for this level, only the team that you are predicting will lose must be from the FBS.

Level 5: Pleaser. Pick one team and move the line 7 points to your disadvantage.

Level 6: Triple points pleaser. Pick either three overs or three unders and move the lines on each 5 points to your disadvantage. 3 out of 3 needed to pass.

Level 5:
turbopuns2
jcgamer107

Level 4:
KCF0107
Paratroopa1
ShatteredElysium

Level 3:
kevwaffles
5tarscream
TsunamiXXVIII

Level 2:
Jakyl25

Level 1:
baubeta
Eddv
SmartMuffin

Marquee Games:
Michigan (-7) @ Michigan State (O/U 40.5)
Oregon (+3) @ Washington State (O/U 68)
Colorado (+17.5) @ Washington (O/U 50)
NC State (+17.5) @ Clemson (O/U 57.5)
Mississippi State (+6.5) @ LSU (O/U 45.5)
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

https://jsfiddle.net/tnysqd18/

Winner: Link
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Dante with 78.25%
Lightning with 63.8%
Chun-Li with 65.5%
Ganondorf with 81%
Vivi with 67.8%
Aya Brea with 50.41%
Donkey Kong with 57.79% (but let's be honest here, somehow they'll find a way to both be below 50%)
Leon Kennedy with 78.8%

Zero with 83.1%
Knuckles the Echidna with 54.1%
Noctis Lucis Caelum with 52.21%
Wario with 69.71%
Yoshi with 75%
James Sunderland with 50%
Pikachu with 68%
Kratos with 70%

Sora with 75.1%
Pokemon Trainer Red with 76.1%
Crash Bandicoot with 52%
Big Boss with 65%
Alucard with 70.24%
Yuna with 61.39%
Kefka with 58%
Kazuma Kiryu with 50.34%

2B with 78%
Ness with 58.5%
Charizard with 62.31%
Bowser with 74.32%
Phoenix Wright with 63.99%
Ike with 76.77%
Isaac with 63.49%
Kirby with 80%
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

And made it. Glad that I was out most of the day, though, because none of my 3 wins came easy; only Florida covered the actual line and that's because they scored 34 of the final 40 points of the game.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

It didn't even register with me when I saw the stat that Memphis was 3-0 ATS with 3 outright wins in their last three home games against ranked teams that that trend would screw over one of my picks if it continued.

They're now 4-0 against the spread...with three outright wins, UCF rallying from a big early deficit to win by a single point.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Level 2: Cleveland
Bonus: DeAndre Hopkins
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

EDIT:

Level 3:
Florida -1 @ Vanderbilt
Central Florida +1.5 @ Memphis
Virginia Tech (PK) @ North Carolina

So, yeah, apparently I should've looked a little closer at USF (and at Tulsa--they managed to stay within 1 score of Texas at Texas!) before jumping to conclusions. I seriously considered sticking with the Bulls anyway for metagaming purposes, but I'd rather have a pick that I can be comfortable in and if I end up helping the people on Level 4, so be it. Besides, a lot of people don't pick until Saturday morning anyway and that's a Friday game.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

I hate picking all road teams, but on the other hand, the adjustment that's made for home/road means you can usually get some clear favorites down to being roughly pick'em's.

Level 3:
South Florida -1 @ Tulsa
Florida -1 @ Vanderbilt
Central Florida +1.5 @ Memphis

Nine other teams were considered. Six of them were road teams as well. Come on, Sunshine State, don't fail me now!
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

I need to stop picking West Coast games. That's two weeks in a row that I've started out 2 for 2 and lost it on the final pick.

Rules
- State which level you're on when you make your pick. Usually it should be obvious, but say it anyway.
- Deadline for making a pick is the start of the earliest game that you're picking. This means that if you are on a level that involves picking multiple teams, ALL of your teams are locked as soon as one of your teams has kicked off. If you don't have a pick in by the start of the early games, you can just pick later games, but if you can't make an eligible pick out of the games that haven't started yet, you can't advance that week.
- Conferences featured in games may be imposed at certain levels, but unless otherwise stated, any game(s) featuring two FBS teams are eligible.
- I'll list some marquee games each week, but you're not restricted to these. If you pick other games, make sure that your lines can be verified.

Level 1: Pick one game against the spread.

Level 2: Pick three over/unders; 2 out of three passes.

Level 3: Three-team teaser. Tease the lines six points in your favor, two wins and a push or three wins needed to pass.

Level 4: First! Pick a winless team to get their first win or an undefeated team to suffer their first loss. If you are predicting a favorite to win, they must also cover the spread (a push is sufficient). You may also select "none" if you think that every game between two winless or two undefeated teams will result in the favorite winning but failing to cover the spread and that no other teams will get their first win or suffer their first loss. Also, for this level, only the team that you are predicting will lose must be from the FBS.

Level 5: Pleaser. Pick one team and move the line 7 points to your disadvantage.

Level 5:
turbopuns2
jcgamer107

Level 4:
KCF0107
Paratroopa1
ShatteredElysium

Level 3:
kevwaffles
5tarscream
TsunamiXXVIII

Level 2:
Jakyl25

Level 1:
baubeta
Eddv
SmartMuffin

Marquee Games:

Georgia (-7.5) @ LSU (O/U 50.5)
Washington (-3) @ Oregon (O/U 57.5)
Michigan State (+13.5) @ Penn State (O/U 54)
Texas A&M (-2) @ South Carolina (O/U 52.5)
Wisconsin (+7.5) @ Michigan (O/U 47.5)

Damnit, so close to being able to let my own judgment decide the fifth game. Michigan State literally got 1 point total between both polls, but that was enough to make it the fifth game. (I probably would've gone with another SEC match, because that's the only conference that's largely above the tangled web of everyone beating up on each other, though I have to admit that TCU-Texas Tech also looks intriguing--TCU actually is getting votes and my loss-based criteria suggest that Tech really still ought to be.)

Final note: with LSU and Kentucky losing last week, the American now has the most undefeated teams of any conference. Fortuitously enough, despite all being in the same division, none of them meet up in October, either--each of the final three weeks of the season will have two of the three playing each other. Can you feel the hype?
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Level 2: Denver
Bonus: 16
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Level 3:

Ole Miss -16.5
Cal +3.5
Cincinnati -1
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

pyresword posted...

Bayonetta is hated in a way that Meta Knight really wasn't. I don't really have a logical explanation for why, but that is what I've observed to be the case. My best guesses as to why are either that it's because she was DLC rather than being included in the base game and was perceived as having ruined a good thing, or because Bayonetta (unlike Brawl Meta Knight) has 0-to-death combos that could be executed with some consistency that were also relatively safe to attempt.

Again, I'm still not sure this actually means much for the Character Battle itself either way.

You're right, it probably doesn't mean anything for the character battle.

pyresword posted...

Yeah quite honestly I take Sans to get to R3 even in the complete absence of rallies, and the only reason I don't take him to R4 is because I evidently have significantly higher expectations of Rosalina than most people do.

I've got Rosalina in R3 as well. My biggest concern is that she's getting "Wolverine Publicity" (that is to say, people are starting to feel like she's being forced into too much), but on the other hand, even people who aren't familiar with her will see her and realize "oh, must be a newer Mario character". And being part of one of Nintendo's major franchises is worth quite a bit.

But I'm sure there'll be lots of people spamming Sans quotes, because he's quite quotable.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Yeah, I feel like maybe I'm the only one here that feels like Undertale has actually lived up to the hype? It feels like Undertale is still every bit as well-loved as it was when it first came out. And you've noted that the best way to squelch a rallied character is to feed it to something strong right away. Sans probably beats Pac-Man just on natural strength, and Bayonetta/Riku doesn't exactly instill confidence in me for stopping Sans in R2...and Geralt/Rosalina/Ryu H/Simon even less so in R3. I never know what to expect of recent, western games, so I have no read on Geralt, and apparently Simon's in Smash Ultimate now so he actually might stand a chance against Ryu H even though he's been pathetic in every match he's ever been in? I don't know; I just assumed that Rosalina would come out of that 4-pack because Nintendo keeps shoving her into every Mario spinoff and I figure she must have made it into Smash by now (I honestly haven't even been keeping up with recent news). If Geralt or Simon turn out to actually be legit, then maybe that stops the Sans train, but if I'm right and Rosalina really does triumph on sheer recognizability, she's definitely not stopping Sans.

Which leads us all the way to Round 4. Do I have confidence in Square to stop Sans? No, of course not; 3D Square is a huge anti-vote magnet due to the fact that it hasn't been good for quite some time and the perception that "Final Fantasy always wins" even when it rarely does. Honestly, out of the Auron/Vincent/Magus trio, Magus might actually stand the best chance against Sans, because Undertale is probably aimed more at the SNES demographic than the PS1/2 demographic. But Magus won't make it past Auron, if he even gets past Vincent, and even though I feel like Auron should beat Vincent as well if Vincent gets past Magus, I'm never confident taking FF-not-7 > FF7. And Auron probably does stand a good chance against Sans if Sans is still working primarily off of natural strength rather than rallies, I won't give Vincent that benefit.

So let's say that Sans actually does beat Auron. Suddenly he's in the double-elimination portion, and by now the rallies will definitely be there, but a strong enough opponent might still be able to stop him. Who does the Division 6 winner face? Sonic? Uh yeah Sans has that one. Luckily, Snake is up next, and that might actually be what's needed to stop him, but by that point, rallies might make it tough.

I almost feel weird having Sans go as deep as I have him and not taking him to win it all, because I know that he'll pick up steam as the rounds progress, but I do have him winning Division 6 and beating Sonic (twice, because lol at how Allen set up the double-elimination phase), but failing to win it all. And really, it's largely because I think he's been given a path to build up a run on. The top half of Division 6 is nothing but unproven commodities and washed-up has-beens.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Evillordexdeath posted...

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

People still care about Dante? Well, I guess they must if he got a 1-seed, but honestly, the last time I remember DmC being relevant was that reboot or whatever it was that everyone hated.

Devil May Cry V is currently in development. Some trailers for it came out around E3. They're giving the DmC universe the boot and bringing back the old white-haired Dante. That will probably generate a bit more goodwill toward him and make something like that a little harder to pull off than it would have been in '13, for instance. Personally, I just don't see Cuphead being able to pull in enough support regardless of what kind of pic Dante gets.

Ah. Didn't know that. Yeah, that should be enough. I seem to remember Allen having a "most recent incarnation" policy on pics in the first round, and if the old Dante's back...yeah, that's enough. I knew that the Cuphead upset was a longshot (though potentially a valuable one because as you noted, Chloe and Lightning are both hated as well), but I initially went with it assuming that Dante would be handicapped by DmC. If DMCV has brought back the old Dante, this becomes easy...and Ganondorf-Dante in R3 becomes actually debatable (I'm sticking with Ganondorf, though.)
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Seriously, Allen? If you start out with a loss and then win your next match, you'll be rewarded with a rematch if the character who beat you lost their next match?

No. No, no, no, absolutely not. I mean, looking at the bracket, Ganondorf's probably the favorite in Division 1, which means he immediately loses to Link. And he's probably the underdog to the Pikachu-Mega Man loser (because look at Division 2, no one's threatening Pikachu there). Which means that since Link is obviously still going to continue to roll, we're probably getting Pikachu-Mega Man again in Losers' Round 2.

And if the fabled FFVII deboost doesn't materialize, it gets worse. Back in the day, Sephiroth was Mario's kryptonite. Mario still has yet to beat Sephy. And they'll be meeting up in the Sweet 16. If Sephy still manages to win that? Mario most likely faces Luigi, which is a free win for him, and Sephiroth definitely doesn't have what it takes to beat Samus. So, rematch. (If Mario beats Sephiroth, though, there's no rematch because Mario probably still beats Samus 1v1 despite Samus clearly being stronger against non-Nintendo opponents than Mario is.)

I guess I understand why Allen did it the way he did, because these matches take place in a consecutive fashion and he wants the ones whose last match was least recent to be up next, but something that allows that many rematches just isn't right. This is how it should go:

Battle 137: Winner of Battle 129 vs. Loser of Battle 135
Battle 138: Winner of Battle 130 vs. Loser of Battle 136
Battle 139: Winner of Battle 131 vs. Loser of Battle 133
Battle 140: Winner of Battle 132 vs. Loser of Battle 134

And I guess those are the only ones that really need to be changed, because the Loser of Battle 141 is already taking on the Winner of Battle 143 (which is now the correct thing, because 141 is between the winners of 133 and 134 and the losers of those battles would meet in Battle 144, not 143, if they win their next battles). It's impossible to completely eliminate rematches; heck, it'd be a huge surprise if Battle 150 wasn't a rematch, and it's quite likely that Battle 149 will be a rematch as well. But this at least assures that two competitors that met up in the Winners' Sweet 16 won't rematch until at least the Top 6, and those that met in the Winners' Elite 8 can't rematch until the top 4.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

There are a few that I think are tough because I expect both to be fodder, but Tidus-DK is just plain cruel because they're both known chokers and Zidane-Knuckles...I don't even know what to say about that, and that one seems especially rough because I feel like Zidane/Zero and Knuckles/Zero are far from certainties either (I currently have Zero > Knuckles in my bracket, but if I switch to Zidane > Knuckles, I'd take Zidane > Zero), but have absolutely no doubt that whichever of those three makes it to Round 3 will win there.

Kefka vs. L-Block isn't a concern for me. L-Block's really in these things on legacy now; it's still a midcarder, but not the force it once was. Kefka looked strong last contest; I still have that listed among my "debatable matches", but I have enough confidence to list "Alucard vs. Kefka" separately on my list rather than listing all three together like I did with Zidane/Zero/Knuckles.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

People still care about Dante? Well, I guess they must if he got a 1-seed, but honestly, the last time I remember DmC being relevant was that reboot or whatever it was that everyone hated. I was a little surprised to see Cuphead seeded that low given some of the other things that got into this bracket because I thought that it was a huge indie darling, but I was kind of happy to see an anti-vote magnet as his first opponent.

Come on, let's get some pic sabotage in the very first match. This is a realistic upset.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

A good few marquee games fell into that "either way you're fine" range for the teaser level. Others, not so much so.

Rules
- State which level you're on when you make your pick. Usually it should be obvious, but say it anyway.
- Deadline for making a pick is the start of the earliest game that you're picking. This means that if you are on a level that involves picking multiple teams, ALL of your teams are locked as soon as one of your teams has kicked off. If you don't have a pick in by the start of the early games, you can just pick later games, but if you can't make an eligible pick out of the games that haven't started yet, you can't advance that week.
- Conferences featured in games may be imposed at certain levels, but unless otherwise stated, any game(s) featuring two FBS teams are eligible.
- I'll list some marquee games each week, but you're not restricted to these. If you pick other games, make sure that your lines can be verified.

Level 1: Pick one game against the spread.

Level 2: Pick three over/unders; 2 out of three passes.

Level 3: Three-team teaser. Tease the lines six points in your favor, two wins and a push or three wins needed to pass.

Level 4: First! Pick a winless team to get their first win or an undefeated team to suffer their first loss. If you are predicting a favorite to win, they must also cover the spread (a push is sufficient). You may also select "none" if you think that every game between two winless or two undefeated teams will result in the favorite winning but failing to cover the spread and that no other teams will get their first win or suffer their first loss. Also, for this level, only the team that you are predicting will lose must be from the FBS.

Level 5: Pleaser. Pick one team and move the line 7 points to your disadvantage.

Level 5:
turbopuns2

Level 4:
jcgamer107
KCF0107
ShatteredElysium

Level 3:
kevwaffles
Paratroopa1
5tarscream
TsunamiXXVIII

Level 2:
Jakyl25

Level 1:
baubeta
Eddv
SmartMuffin

Marquee Games:
Texas (+7) vs. Oklahoma (O/U 51.5) (Dallas, TX)
Maryland (+17.5) @ Michigan (O/U 47.5)
LSU (-2) @ Florida (O/U 43.5)
Kentucky (+5.5) @ Texas A&M (O/U 50.5)
Notre Dame (-6.5) @ Virginia Tech (O/U 56.5)

Those who officially vote for rankings apparently ignore bad losses in favor of promoting good wins. Yes, Maryland honestly received more votes in both polls than anyone else who was playing a ranked opponent. (Not that I'd have been much more open to Mississippi State, a 3-2 team with no bad losses but also no good wins, or Boston College, which has a loss almost as silly as Maryland's, though they also beat the team that beat Maryland.)
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Yeah, I'm on it
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Ugh. So close.

I'm glad I did that silly "tier" thing last week, because it looks to have broken down screaming this week. I dutifully updated through the earlier games, but gave up after seeing TCU over Iowa State (who beat Akron, who beat Northwestern, who beat Purdue, who beat Boston College...oh, right, that means it's a crunch, because TCU was chain down from there. Oof, this would be challenging...), and that was before accounting for VaTech over Duke.

Still more than enough teams "above the fray" to fill out a full Top 25, though...although I'll admit I had a little trouble scraping out the bottom of it, ultimately deciding that because of how critical BYU over Wisconsin is (since most sources still have Wisconsin ranked, not without reason), I'd leave Cal at #25 after their loss.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Wow. I called that Alabama game perfectly. I said that it would look much more attractive if I could get -41.5 instead of -42.5, and sure enough they won by exactly 42.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

KCF0107 posted...

Oh, TT has a loss, so I guess that the spread doesn't matter

No, it still does. Remember, winless Iowa State was a 19-point favorite over undefeated Akron last week. (They won but didn't cover)

Paratroopa1 posted...

I also considered taking Louisiana (+54.5) just because Alabama is reasonably likely to stop at some point but eh, they've covered that spread once this season already. I also like Stanford (+12)

Funny, I was considering taking Alabama if that line dropped a half point to a point.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

I usually avoid the marquee games; they often feel like trap games. Though I have to admit that Cal +8 seems tempting--probably because it is just beyond that TD, so even a loss straight-up could easily be a win vs. the spread.

Level 3:
Temple @ Boston College -6.5
Texas @ Kansas State +14.5
Hawaii -4 @ San Jose State

Considered Utah on the road against Wazzu, but remembered that the Cougars' loss isn't really "bad" at all--it's just "bad" by my tier list because of trickle-down of progressively worse losses. (Wazzu lost to USC, who lost to Texas, who lost to Maryland, who lost to Temple, who lost to Villanova...)

Fun facts about the list: While the only tier that is only a single team is the absolute lowest one (tier 21, Texas State), every team at Tier 10 or lower goes through the same Tier 9 team: Boston College. Here's the full chain for Texas State, by the way.

Texas State lost to South Alabama, who lost to Memphis, who lost to Navy, who lost to SMU, who lost to TCU, who lost to Texas, who lost to Maryland, who lost to Temple, who lost to Villanova, who lost to Towson, who lost to Wake Forest, who lost to Boston College, who lost to Purdue, who lost to Northwestern, who lost to Akron, who lost to Iowa State, who lost to Iowa, who lost to Wisconsin, who lost to BYU, who lost to California.

No doubt you'll notice that Temple and Boston College are both in that chain already, and so you might ask, "what happens if Temple beats BC? Would this silly exercise break down next week?" The answer is no, not yet. Late in the season, there tends to be so much of this type of thing that everyone ends up smushed in the middle, but this early, a small circular win chain is just dealt with by putting all the teams on the same tier, that tier being determined by the worst loss any of those teams has outside the chain (at the moment, BC's loss to Purdue). In fact, this already was the case this week, with a sextet on Tier 12--half FBS and half FCS, interestingly enough:

East Carolina > North Carolina > Pittsburgh > Albany > Morgan State > North Carolina A&T > East Carolina

Interestingly enough, the loss that placed them on Tier 12 was Morgan State losing to Towson.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Ranked-vs.-ranked alone is enough to make up a whole marquee, and better still, none of them are the bullshit ranked teams. This far into the season, there are enough results that ranking based on hype alone is inexcusable. Any team with at least one loss should only be ranked if all teams that beat them are ranked ahead of them. If the remaining undefeated teams are "Tier 1", and any team that has only lost to undefeated teams is "Tier 2", do you know where #18 Texas is? Tier 15, and you have to pass through the FCS to get there. (To save on clutter, I only put FCS teams in a tier if they're "relevant" to an FBS team's ranking, whether it's by having defeated one directly or having indirectly done so via win chains).

In addition to receiving votes in at least one of the polls, all 20 of the teams on this week's double-size marquee are Tier 3 or higher. If I didn't make both teams getting votes in at least one poll a criteria, I could add another four games, but this tiering methodology is based solely on strength of losses, not strength of wins. So this is probably the best marquee.

Rules
- State which level you're on when you make your pick. Usually it should be obvious, but say it anyway.
- Deadline for making a pick is the start of the earliest game that you're picking. This means that if you are on a level that involves picking multiple teams, ALL of your teams are locked as soon as one of your teams has kicked off. If you don't have a pick in by the start of the early games, you can just pick later games, but if you can't make an eligible pick out of the games that haven't started yet, you can't advance that week.
- Conferences featured in games may be imposed at certain levels, but unless otherwise stated, any game(s) featuring two FBS teams are eligible.
- I'll list some marquee games each week, but you're not restricted to these. If you pick other games, make sure that your lines can be verified.

Level 1: Pick one game against the spread.

Level 2: Pick three over/unders; 2 out of three passes.

Level 3: Three-team teaser. Tease the lines six points in your favor, two wins and a push or three wins needed to pass.

Level 4: First! Pick a winless team to get their first win or an undefeated team to suffer their first loss. If you are predicting a favorite to win, they must also cover the spread (a push is sufficient). You may also select "none" if you think that every game between two winless or two undefeated teams will result in the favorite winning but failing to cover the spread and that no other teams will get their first win or suffer their first loss. Also, for this level, only the team that you are predicting will lose must be from the FBS.

Level 4:
KCF0107
turbopuns2

Level 3:
jcgamer107
kevwaffles
Paratroopa1
ShatteredElysium
5tarscream
TsunamiXXVIII

Level 2:
Jakyl25

Level 1:
baubeta
Eddv
SmartMuffin

Marquee Games:

Syracuse (+25.5) @ Clemson (O/U 65.5)
West Virginia (-3.5) @ Texas Tech (O/U 72)
Army (+7.5) @ Buffalo (O/U 54.5)
Florida (+7) @ Mississippi State (O/U 50.5)
Ohio State (-3.5) @ Penn State (O/U 70.5)
Stanford (+5.5) @ Notre Dame (O/U 52.5)
South Carolina (PK) @ Kentucky (O/U 51.5)
BYU (+17) @ Washington (O/U 46)
Ole Miss (+11) @ LSU (O/U 59.5)
Oregon (-2) @ California (O/U 58)

An honest-to-God pick'em on the marquee? Pinch me, I'm dreaming!
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Yeah I'll get this done soon. Sorry, been busy.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Last time I follow the crowd...

Level 2: Denver
Bonus: Rams-Vikings
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Okay fine.

Level 2: Tampa Bay
Bonus: Brady > Foles > Trubisky
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

3 games into the season and the Browns are already guaranteed their best record in 3 seasons.

With only 1 win.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

...Whoops. It seems I made an oversight on the marquee. Ah, well, it doesn't really mean anything.

Level 3:

North Carolina State +1 @ Marshall
Buffalo @ Rutgers +11.5
South Carolina +4 @ Vanderbilt

Okay, last week was ugly, but I refuse to believe that Rutgers is that bad.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

LusterSoldier posted...

Currently trading 9 nominations for Misty from Pokemon Red/Blue. For reference, these are my current nominations so far:

Misty Pokemon Red/Blue
Brock Pokemon Red/Blue
Aqua Kindgom Hearts: Birth by Sleep
Victor Sullivan Uncharted: Drake's Fortune
Ellie The Last of Us
Batman Batman: The Caped Crusader
Spider-Man Spider-Man (1982)
Metal Man Mega Man 2
Metal Sonic Sonic CD
L-Block Tetris
Professor Oak Pokemon Red/Blue

I've opted to keep Batman and Spider-Man on my nomination list as a protest against Allen not allowing non-VG characters into the contest with video game appearances.

Okay, sure. For Alto (Stella Glow).

OFool posted...

Im on the Mog bandwagon as well. 5 noms fot him

Wait, does this mean I can still get an Alto nom in exchange for Mog? Done.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Oh, crap, I actually have to come up with a not-insane level 4 now...I don't want to go to the pleaser just yet, but...ah, screw it, here's a "funny" level. I'll replace it with something else later in the season if people are still stuck at or below it once the number of eligible teams to be picked dwindles too low. This early in the season, though, it actually seems like a fairly easy level.

Rules
- State which level you're on when you make your pick. Usually it should be obvious, but say it anyway.
- Deadline for making a pick is the start of the earliest game that you're picking. This means that if you are on a level that involves picking multiple teams, ALL of your teams are locked as soon as one of your teams has kicked off. If you don't have a pick in by the start of the early games, you can just pick later games, but if you can't make an eligible pick out of the games that haven't started yet, you can't advance that week.
- Conferences featured in games may be imposed at certain levels, but unless otherwise stated, any game(s) featuring two FBS teams are eligible.
- I'll list some marquee games each week, but you're not restricted to these. If you pick other games, make sure that your lines can be verified.

Level 1: Pick one game against the spread.

Level 2: Pick three over/unders; 2 out of three passes.

Level 3: Three-team teaser. Tease the lines six points in your favor, two wins and a push or three wins needed to pass.

Level 4: First! Pick a winless team to get their first win or an undefeated team to suffer their first loss. If you are predicting a favorite to win, they must also cover the spread (a push is sufficient). You may also select "none" if you think that every game between two winless or two undefeated teams will result in the favorite winning but failing to cover the spread and that no other teams will get their first win or suffer their first loss. Also, for this level, only the team that you are predicting will lose must be from the FBS.

Level 4:
KCF0107

Level 3:
jcgamer107
kevwaffles
Paratroopa1
ShatteredElysium
5tarscream
TsunamiXXVIII
turbopuns2

Level 2:
Jakyl25

Level 1:
baubeta
Eddv
SmartMuffin

Marquee Games:

Georgia (-14) @ Missouri (O/U 64.5)
Texas A&M (+26) @ Alabama (O/U 61)
TCU (-3) @ Texas (O/U 47.5)
Mississippi State (-10) @ Kentucky (O/U 55.5)
Wisconsin (-3) @ Iowa (O/U 43.5)

Yeah, the "favorites must also cover spread" condition on Level 4 was an addition when I went for marquee games and saw how comically easy the level could be otherwise. Iowa State as an 18.5-point favorite over Akron (which counts for the level in both ways, no less) is probably the most extreme example, although Georgia-Missouri being a battle of unbeatens certainly qualifies as well.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Level 1: New Orleans
Bonus: 6
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't it considered intentional grounding if you're in the pocket and throw it somewhere far from any receiver? Or is there an unspoken "to avoid a sack" in that rule?

Because I'm watching Rutgers-Kansas and the KU quarterback just uncorked a pass well beyond where any player was, but it happened so quickly that he probably could've held onto the ball for 3-5 seconds longer before he was in danger of a sack.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Wow, lucky you.

Been reading through ESPN.com. Hawaii @ Army is part of the early slate. That's 7 AM Hawaii time. Apparently this type of chicanery with cross-coast matchups is common. I love it.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Couple of high-powered matchups today. Also a battle of Power 5 weaklings, with my Scarlet Knights heading to Lawrence. I'm kind of hyped; non-conference wins against the Power 5 have been rare.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Alto (Stella Glow)
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

I feel like none of this fourpack would be that strong, so Guile probably wins because of memes.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

@KokoroAkechi @Haste_2 @MikeTavish

Are those offers still open?
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

mnkboy907 posted...

Yes.

Wow, wasn't expecting to see anyone push Stella Glow. That's cool.

It's such an obscure game, and it's so good. I'd be fine with Alto getting the lowest possible seed and fed to Link or someone else strong right away if it got people asking what game he came from.

I mean, personally I'd rather go with one of the girls, but as the hero, Alto seems like the best option.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Okay, I'll admit that blind homerism wouldn't have served me any better than that stupid Arkansas State covering pick did...but this week is different.

Level 3:

Rutgers +8.5 @ Kansas
Miami (OH) @ Minnesota -7
Arizona State +1 @ San Diego State

Something tells me I won't be the only one on this level on at least one of those games...I seem to have picked someone else's home team, too.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.