Lurker > TsunamiXXVIII

NowItsAngeTime posted...

AxemRedRanger posted...

I was calling this from day 1 and took it in my bracket.

Full-speed ahead and if this train's fate is to horribly crash and be destroyed, I must simply laugh.

He's coming, Vincent!

I also took it Day 1 without ever changing

---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Well this multiple polls at once format hasn't been used that often. Early this decade we used 12-hour matches to speed things up instead, remember?
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

7 vote update for Claire...4 vote update for Vincent. Argh!
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

LeonhartFour posted...

both leads under 10 votes now

I can't take it

I know. Finally, an F5-worthy match, and there's two of them at once!
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

KamikazePotato posted...

Also, in the interest of defending my dude here a bit more: based on the 2013 stats, Shulk is currently projected to score 62% on his 2013 self.

Not surprising. He's had Smash since then, plus returning for another contest almost always makes you stronger if your first contest was shortly after your debut game came out.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Nope, just making it early. At the speed the previous one's moving thanks to multiple close matches, it's worthwhile.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

ExThaNemesis posted...

Ugh Joker cut.

Must be a rally somewhere. Not good.

Haven't you heard? Rallies aren't a thing this year.

But seriously, Joker's right back in this. Another cut, plus Magus trying to reestablish his lead!
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Go Magus you can do it! Slay the Final Fantasy VII beast!

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---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

LeonhartFour posted...

wait

this makes Mewtwo's win in 2013 look worse now

Tifa > Mewtwo reconfirmed through Vincent's suckiness

Exactly.

It's not often that a character disappointing makes another character from their game look more likely to win their debated match, but that's exactly the case.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

LeonhartFour posted...

Averia posted...

We blamed Paulg for no reasons.
The pic didn't actually change the results in 2013.

I mean I think we all eventually accepted that Mewtwo would have won anyway

but suddenly that win seems much less impressive

Mewtwo is a fraud

I keep telling you, Mewtwo is only a "fraud" if you believe that Mewtwo did anything impressive on its own strength to begin with. Mewtwo was fueled by rallies to begin with; it's like saying L-Block was strong because of 2007.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

tgs2 posted...

Magus is going to win this division.

Now, now, let's not be hasty.

Beating a Vincent that's clearly been trending downwards ever since his big win over Crono in 2007 is one thing. Beating Auron, who as best as I can tell has been fairly steady, is quite another.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Averia posted...

Why is anyone surprise that Joker isn't strong ?
P5 is a recent game. Since when has anything out of a new game been anything more than low midcarder.

Usually not even that. Even Sora and Kratos, two of our stronger post-2002 characters, struggled early. I think the only one who really hit the ground running was Amaterasu.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Still cutting! Next update should be a lead switch!
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

LeonhartFour posted...

man Ulti is on fire against all these straw men right now

When is he ever not? I love most of his PCAs, even the ones where he calls me out for my idiocy in 2010 (I deserved it), but some of them are really cringy. The Neku/Vaas/Catherine match in 2013 for example.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Where would one go to actually rally for Magus? I feel like most attempts to try to rally this would have a significant chance of backfiring because it's mid-90s Square vs. mid-90s Square. I'd love it so much if Magus could pull this off.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Auron
Magus
Shulk
Claire
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Dark Young Link posted...

Sans lost to Pac-Man because

Sans called for a rally...

But nobody came.

---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

ExThaNemesis posted...

Averia posted...

Vincent is a FRAUD

Nah fam Vincent is exactly who we thought he was.

Which is a FRAUD

How is it that the votes aren't actually equal between a day's matches, anyway? Aren't we supposed to have to vote in all four matches?
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Ugh, I had Joker in my bracket, but originally picked Claire in Oracle. And then I found out Joker was getting "Joker" and it made me switch back.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Huh. Vincent only increased his lead by 12 on the second update. Go Magus!

Claire starting to pull away though.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

LusterSoldier posted...

Seems like it's probably over for Joker at this point. Claire is leading at the freeze, and I'd assume Joker likely got the board vote. I expect it's up for Claire from this point on.

I wouldn't call this one just yet. Board vote may go for Joker, but I feel like bracket voters would be favoring Claire. The unregistered voters could still swing things toward Joker if it stays close among registered voters.

Magus is finished, though.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

And we've officially hit the freeze. 40 for lead for Vincent. Claire leads Joker by just 6 votes.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

...And Vincent's already got the lead.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Magus winning early. No surprise there.

Joker-Claire super close.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Gordon Freeman Never Wins
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Rosalina
Sans
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Janus5k posted...

Master Moltar posted...

Lemme just digress for a moment to say it's a little sad in hindsight the strongest Final Fantasy characters in these contests are, without exception, edgelord swordkings.

no respect for Tifa huh

Thank you.

I've been arguing all contest that Tifa is the number three FF character (well, number three FFVII character; I think she still loses to Squall), and I think not being an "edgelord swordking" is part of it. At the very least, it's why she's stood up to SFF from Sephiroth so much better than Vincent.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Lopen posted...

Lucina is probably stronger than Lyn. Probably moreso than Auron is vs Rikku at this point.

Agreed, and this is coming from someone tuned in to the Fire Emblem fandom. Lyn probably is one of the fandom's favorite characters for obvious reasons (which is to say, 7 was the first Fire Emblem released in this country. The American fanbase loves Lyn and Hector. IS actually noticed, too, and made Ike to appeal to Hector fans.) Lucina is...polarizing there, I think. She's very popular, but she also gets a fair bit of backlash.

Actually, a lot of characters from Awakening and Fates get backlash because those games gave the series much wider appeal and all of the fans who had been there since the start look down on the newcomers...kind of the way I feel about people who at best "outgrew" Pokmon after Gen I/II and at worst were never Gen I/II fans to begin with that suddenly became "Pokmon fans" when Pokmon Go came out. Or, you know, this site's feelings about almost anything that came out after we started having contests.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Mac Arrowny posted...

Aqua and Quiet are both 2010s characters.

I was talking about Round 2. I'd be very surprised if Aqua was in trouble against Quiet.

LeonhartFour posted...

oh nice Guest spares us from the Crew Curse

I'd have taken Magus too. FFVII still does look to be trending down.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Haste_2 posted...

I admit that I'm happy to see Simon winning as well, even with Ryu in my bracket.

Who would you say is more popular, Shulk or Lucina?

Probably Lucina; Fire Emblem seems to have worked its way up to second-tier Nintendo franchise while Xenoblade, due to its newness, is stuck on third tier.

Of course, Fire Emblem suffers from Final Fantasy syndrome to some degree (no continuity of narrative, though there's really only one game in the series that shares zero characters with any other game in the series that isn't explicitly a crossover.)
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

LeonhartFour posted...

so uh this didn't occur to me until I saw someone bring it up somewhere else

is Aqua in big trouble now

I wouldn't say "big" trouble. Square RPG > not Square RPG, but 2000s > 2010s.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Change

KOS-MOS with 58.4%
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

ZeldaTPLink posted...

OFool posted...

How did we get it so wrong with Ryu?

My brief stint in the top 50 is coming to an end

Same thing as Tidus vs DK.

Xtats gave one guy as the obvious winner and we were left trying to figure out if the other guy managed to catch up.

Turns out he did.

Exactly. Last time we had a 1v1 contest (which was admittedly 8 years ago), Simon lost to Ezio. The same Ezio we just saw get blown out horrendously.

...by the same character that beat him far less horrendously in said contest. Fine, bad example, since it's clear that 2018 Ezio is a threat to get doubled by 2010 Ezio.

But isn't that part of it? The "won't get fooled again" bias? It's why we continue to underestimate Kefka and overrate guys like Frog and Vincent. Hayabusa was the one who pulled the big upsets; Simon, though the Gurus mostly called it right (I didn't), was actually a slight favorite with the casuals in his loss to Ezio.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

I think I entertained the idea of a Simon upset once I heard he was in Smash, but backed off.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Can I bet the money line on Magus instead?

MAX on Magus/Sub-Zero parlay.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

So glad I missed this day.

I probably would've gone 4way parlay, because I'd have been hella confident about all four spreads.

And in reality I'm going to be 1-3 in straight-ups.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

JJH777 posted...

I took Sans to Snake which I really regret. I thought the double gamefaqs votes would make a bigger difference against rallies but even with that the votals are too low to stop rallies. If he actually makes it to Snake then he'll probably win the whole thing. I should have taken him to lose early or taken him all the way. I think I guaranteed myself a poor bracket with that choice regardless of if he gets rallied or not.

Same here, except I figured that Sans would probably be able to make it to Auron on natural strength.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Pepsiman
Alto
Big Daddy
Axel
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

GavsEvans123 posted...

Yeah changing my vote for why Waluigi lost. This is too good.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Rosalina
Ryu
Sans
Bayonetta
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

It could be worse.

I'd probably have Riku in the division finals if I had him even winning this match, but because I correctly called Bayonetta's win, I have Sans > Sonic.

Twice.

Go figure that. I have enough respect for KH to think that they'd be able to nip the Undertale rally train in the bud, but enough disrespect for Square to think that Riku wouldn't even get the chance.

I mean, really, I should've just picked assuming no "momentum building". I'd still have Sans in the Division Finals because this day is so weak, but at least I'd have Auron winning the division.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Team Rocket Elite posted...

Oops, posted with the wrong account again.

Sorry this took so long but, assuming no errors, here is the final list of teams:

Confirmed Teams:
Menji/SwiftyDC [Oraclinquists]
WiggumFan267/Whiskey_Nick [Team Vladding Nimmo]
BetrayedTangy/linkhatesganon
Ngamer64/creativename [Predestined Divination]
LeonhartFour/MZero11 [Mewtwo is a fraud]
Camden/meche313
tennisboy213/LusterSoldier
th3l3fty/ShatteredElysium
Korayashi/mcflubbin
Team Rocket Elite/spooky96 [Moderation Staff Team]
SuperNiceDog/hylianknight3 [SuperKnightsDog]
AxemRedRanger/Glenn_and_Toad [Frog and Magus]
Z1mZum/cyko
KingMorgoth/Kaxon [Team Used To Be Good?]
Corrik/pjbasis
3DSRage/Master Moltar [Palace Of Wisdom]
XIII_rocks/davidponte [Bloodborn]
DoomTheGyarados/Advokaiser [Advokating Doom]

Randomly paired teams:
tazzyboyishere/RoseChevalier
ctesjbuvf/theawesomestevr
DarkFalconX/Ringworm

tazzyboyishere, at the moment it doesn't seem like RoseChevalier is an active player anymore so you kinda got unlucky there. I'll put your team in anyways but tell me if you rather drop out of the team ranking instead.

I'll try and make an update on team scores some time soon.

As I said before, I'd be fine with being part of a team. Tazzy, if you want, I'll replace RoseChevalier.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Aloy got D.Stroyed.

xp1337 posted...

Shovel Knight tried to escape the hole he was in but just kept digging deeper.

VeryInsane posted...

Waluigi lost cause he cant even make it to disc one of a main game

---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Change:

Sephiroth 78.9%
Captain Falcon 62%
Amaterasu with 82%
Lara Croft with 58%

Yeah, the rallies aren't happening, and I feel like Draven is even more hated here than Sans. Also, Amaterasu is much stronger than Pac-Man. I know that number is way high, but my bracket is flaming out spectacularly. Not like 2013 when I could've won the Guru if Zero hadn't completely collapsed to let Mega Man squeak by Charizard.

...I wouldn't have, mind you, because Red was there and I needed Charizard to win the next match too. But I could've! I was alive late!
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Wow. These, uh, these anti-votes are something.

I mainly took the upset because I figured Pac-Man's always been weak against anything with any sort of fanbase and relies on the weakness of his opponent to get wins. And, er, then another Sans win because KH gets shat on so much that I didn't even expect Riku to be there...and then another because honestly, I'd take any of the Sans/Pac-Man/Bayonetta/Riku quartet over any of the Rosalina/Ryu/Simon trio (no I'm not even going to dignify the other member with anything more than a "LOL there was a year between 2014 and 2016?" And yeah, I know Undertale was also released in The Year That Must Not Be Named but I'm still just so mad at how aggressively vomit-inducing radio was that year and literally 80% of good songs that received significant radio play that year were 2014 holdovers, but even that can't be enjoyed as a whole because of Uptown Fuck, no that's not a typo, seriously fuck that year so hard)...and then Sans is in Round 4 and the bandwagon is rolling.

I'm so screwed. I should've just taken Rosalina > Sans in Round 3. Fuck, I probably would've avoided this if I didn't have so little faith in anything Square that I took Bayonetta > Riku. Shit, Bayonetta > Riku is probably happening but it's going to cost me more points than if I'd called it wrong, because I feel like I'd have called KH to stop Sans before he could get rolling.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

CHANGE

Ren Amamiya with 53%
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

CelesMyUserName posted...

Waluigi getting rejected is just part of his whole character

---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Janus5k posted...

Yeah I don't really expect it to catch fire again either

the rally kind of took on the mindset of "make these people mad" and that would be a harder sell as it goes against Undertale as a concept

Agreed. There's just not enough behind these rallies. Though it often doesn't take much to beat Pac-Man.

In the "make these people mad", I think Draven would be more likely to get that. I don't think he'll be able to muster up a big enough rally to beat Amaterasu...but thanks to the "have to vote in all four" mechanic, it would be interesting if they tried! After all, I doubt these trolls will actually check B8 before voting, and I'd assume that if they're trying to make us "mad", they'll go against the more iconic character every time. Except...Metal Man is in the bracket precisely because of us. Am I crazy for thinking that an attempt to rally Draven could have the side effect of letting Metal Man upset Lara? Or am I not giving the trolls enough credit, and they know us well enough to vote the 3D character over the 2D character?

... Yeah, I'm probably just being crazy for thinking that Metal Man could benefit. I don't even like the Mega Man series, so I'm fine with Lara winning. I just think it would be hilarious if the trolls failed at their goal and engineered an upset that we'd actually be happy about in the process.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

As I said yesterday, I wanted to reevaluate two Division 6 matches after seeing today's matches. One of them I'm sticking with my original prediction for. The other I'm outright changing my winner (admittedly, back to what's in my bracket.

Ren Amamiya with 50.5%

Luigi with 69%
Frog with 71%
Master Chief with 62%
Miles 'Tails' Prower with 55.8%
Tifa Lockheart with 69.69%
Mewtwo with 59.99%
King Dedede with 52%
Mega Man X with 77.77%

Sephiroth with 74%
Captain Falcon with 67.5%
Amaterasu with 51%
Metal Man with 50.1%
Ryu with 69.93%
King K. Rool with 52%
KOS-MOS with 55.99%
Aqua with 63%

I know, I know, total memer on the Tifa prediction. And honestly those Chief and Frog numbers look disgusting but their competition is so weak!

And yes, I intentionally screwed around with the first half of Division 8. I'm expecting there to be an attempted rally for Draven, which should be bad for all favorites...or rather, all perceived favorites. Maybe if we pretend hard enough, the folks trying to ruin our contest will actually provide an upset we can support!
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Luigi vs. Miles Edgeworth -
Frog vs. Monokuma -
Master Chief vs. Goro Majima -
Nathan Drake vs. Miles 'Tails' Prower - Ranticoot
Tifa Lockheart vs. Geno - garetha200
GlaDOS vs. Mewtwo - spooky96
King Dedede vs. Revolver Ocelot -
Mega Man X vs. Isabelle -

Sephiroth vs. Albert Wesker - ctesjbuvf
Richter Belmont vs. Captain Falcon -
Amaterasu vs. Draven - paulg235
Lara Croft vs. Metal Man -
Ryu vs. Lloyd Irving -
Commander Shepard vs. King K. Rool -
Ellie vs. KOS-MOS - TsunamiXXVIII
Aqua vs. Quiet - Bane_Of_Despair
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.