Lurker > Lopen

It's a 1/11 in normal situations. Actually lower still because GF isn't known in the setup.

I'm saying in this particular situation it's much lower because it's just a bad play to do that.

But yeah. Anyone mentioning it several times unprovoked as "something to address later" is clearly just scum leaving mislynches open.

I responded to a Kirby post like it was BCT

What can I say scum all looks alike to me

Kirby321 posted...

Godfather is only a serious consideration if the PoE has been narrowed down so much that we can't afford to ignore the possibility.

There is no consideration for godfather on Abacus

Perhaps if Hb scans me, you or Kirby tonight town then you consider it

neonreaper posted...

feel free to call me naive! I'm just BSing about stuff that I think sounds interesting but don't know much about.

Was referring to foolmo, the tech idealist, more than you, but yeah. This tech will not be cheap you can be sure of that. And the tech gets bought up and patented before the crappy open source stuff gets competent or is deemed "not good enough" by the big studios that actually care about voice acting. That's just how tech that is actually promising works. It gets monetized.

Kirby321 posted...

Sure, they could have killed Hb N2 (regardless of whether or not Abacus is Godfather), but scum had a roleblocker in the form of Ben. Why wouldn't you just keep the outed Cop roleblocked and go hunting for other power roles, especially if Doctor is dead? Hb was literally victim to this as Tracker in Star Wars/Pokmon Mafia! Dude was kept alive for an insanely long time but was perpetually roleblocked to be useless at night time.

If abacus is scum godfather you want to "town confirm" him ASAP in a lylo situation and get the found power role off the table. You do not play games and risk the cop getting more scans off.

While town bus is a bit weird and I don't blame scum for not expecting it, the fact that scum team was so cocky to think that town roleblocker which isn't particularly uncommon couldn't be in the setup is crazy.

Honestly though it was just a misplay regardless of whether Abacus was GF or not. I'm just saying if Abacus was GF the scum team obviously goes conservative. The game is in the bag at that point for them.

hb abacus and Chang are included because they're obviously town to anyone who is trying to figure out the game.

So you think I'm scum and you're town, right? Do you think I'm drawing heat from two town? Or do you think I try to bus my scummate to gain clout to set up the other lynch?

Actually if I'm scum I only need to trap one town into a corner to win so logically if I'm scum my mate is you or Kirby

Like you have to realize the gamestate Night 2

Doctor is dead
Town is at lylo
I have HEAVILY tied myself to Ben who is scum. I'm an easy mislynch.

Block + kill of hb SHOULD have been the play either way but scum got greedy and thought they could use me to get hb lynched (me being scum, this play is not viable, as me convincing 2 town to lynch cop is not remotely plausible and requires a scum to fakeclaim a scanning role to even give it a chance to work when really just playing it safe and letting town random lynch someone incorrectly is too easy)

Kirby321 posted...

Abacus as Godfather only makes sense if Hb is town

No. Abacus as Godfather does not make sense if Hb is town.

If Abacus is Godfather they block + kill Hb night 2 and it's gg. Advanced hb framejob tech is not needed.

I'd prefer Hb to decide who activates the trap tbh.

Or a committee of Hb/Abacus/Chang

I said in my initial post that I can do it if that's what the people want.

I think scum is less likely to be able to buy a big ticket item because they wasted so much money on lightning storms so I'm less concerned about scum getting more money here than town getting

But I mean yeah whatever. I'm totally fine with doing it we have some reason BCT shouldn't. There's no reason BCT should make any play other than buying the ghost thing though. And I'd prefer he didn't have more money because if he burned cash on the lightning storm then he actually can't buy the ghost thing which is something to catch him on.

Of course, the same could be said of me, which is why I'm willing to do it if town thinks I ought to. It's completely fine.

Kirby321 posted...

Abacus being a potential Godfather was not the focus of it at all.

Yet you mention it as making sense for BCT to think and how you can't shake it from the back of your mind

Strange amount of talk for it not being the focus

Kirby321 posted...

You, me, and BCT have the same Gem totals, with BCT spending the most, followed by you, then me. I'm clearly the best choice to activate Chang's card, but you're a definite #2 using your own logic.

No

Best choice to activate the card is the one with the LEAST money. Which is BCT.

If there is an awesome 550g card that pops up you'd be able to get it
500g? Me and you can.
450g? All three of us

The big ticket item barring an amazing new shop item is the ghost thing

Also you have a trap in place so you can't buy the ghost thing so it's even more important that you have the options to buy the hot ticket item if it comes.

You're trying to volunteer yourself to make excuses for things later. You don't volunteer yourself if you're town and thinking about the game. BCT is the obvious choice to trip it here.

BlueCrystalTear posted...

Why are we vote-locking Chang? Can we not just MST his existing trap card at night so he can set a new one? Is it possible to specify "I want to clear Chang's current trap to allow him to set a new one" or is that not in the rules?

It's better to have you vote lock on him. Helps confirm his story as legitimate and you aren't going to do anything with 450g that you can't do with 350g.

Kirby321 posted...

Re-quoting this because Lopen insists I'm keeping BCT off my suspect list when that's bullshit :P

You're quoting the thing where you say it's between Sultan and BCT and won't write off Abacus as a godfather threat so thank you for making my point for me. I'll quote it again, the whole thing, for convenience.

Kirby321 posted...

Hb is Cop. That's indisputable. The odds of him being scum are possible but crackpot-levels of unlikely.

Abacus being Godfather is not out of the equation, but I'd rather focus on potential guilty scans than sussing the scanned townies. The odds of scum having more than one Godfather is unlikely.

So BCT is insane for even considering the possibility, but he hasn't been making a show out of it unlike a certain someone else :P

You (Lopen), Sultan, and Poppy is a very reasonable conclusion from his perspective. Though I'm only sold on you and Poppy. Not quite sure who the last scum would be just yet.

Does anyone know if Chang has a theater degree? Because if not, then the natural PoE has to be between BCT and Sultan... and I'm honestly not sure who it could be. I will say that I'm leaning town on Sultan more than I am BCT, but the possibility of Abacus being Godfather is gnawing at the back of my mind. Ugh.

The entirety of this post is saying BCT isn't insane and casting doubt on whether innocent scan on Abacus town confirms him. You do it in a passive way, but the focus is clearly on suspecting Abacus.

Kirby321 posted...

That isn't scummy in the slightest. Anyone can do basic kindergarten math. It's obvious BCT went for the Pot of Greed + Crossout Designator combo twice in a row. His trap got activated the first time, and he put up another trap the next day, so it's a pretty reasonable conclusion that he went for the same combo twice.

Note also your first post of the day where you argue that BCT isn't scummy for just verifying his own gp total when it's super easy to verify all the gp totals. Verifying your own gp total is just faking content. You also argue that going for two pots + crossout makes sense when you believe hb is cop. NO IT DOESN'T.

BCT - 450 Gold

BCT claims he bought 2x Pot of Greed and 2x Crossout Designator, putting him at 250g

In case we get a big ticket 500gp item, BCT should vote Chang here. BCT can still afford the Ghost Belle with 350g and shouldn't need 450g.

Who agrees.

Open source only matters until someone patents the industry standard

We can use Open Office but no one in serious business uses that over Microsoft Office due to compatibility issues with the standard everyone uses

Like seriously thinking that voice AI tech is going to continue to be cheap as it sees more widespread use is way more naive than thinking voice actors will continue to get work here. We've seen this scenario play out time and time again.

Like you're absolutely right we want to kill the ring in case Peaf bought the mansion card

Also you may be right about that being a trap.

Maybe we can decide for a scum suspect to vote you and be trapped onto you. Then your vote at least is available to vote Poppy if needed

I nominate BCT or Kirby as they have low finances from claimed pots but I'm also willing to do it if it's the will of the people

changmas posted...

If he did, I'm going to set that instead because that's more important.

Yeah. Obviously! I'll still fire a pot at you but if it doesn't go it doesn't go.

MacArrowny posted...

I feel like it's more likely one of the big corps will buy out the AI voice company that does it best and patent the tech so no one else can use it.

Yep

And then you're gonna pay out the ears for it. Photoshop will look cheap.

Also Chang

Technically you can activate your ring of destruction on yourself, given that self voting is allowed

If you want to prove your item is indeed a ring of destruction without denying town gp and free up your trap slot. This would also allow you to put a crossout designator on yourself tonight and let me confirm your story by firing a pot of greed at you because I have 2

So looking at the cards the only cards worth mentioning are: Ash Blossom, Maxx C/Infinite Impermanence, Monster Reborn, Scapegoat, and Ghost Belle.

Ash Blossom is potentially useful if we see some strong spell that scum could use to save themselves we can fire it at them and counter it. However I think functionally it's not that useful because scum can use pot of greed to cancel Ash Blossom and then force their spell through. It's kinda just junk given Kirby and BCT both claim to have a pot of greed right now. Might be useful to put a pinch on Kirby's finances though-- if he burns his pot he would need to buy another pot for his crossout lie to not be exposed (Chang should fire a pot of greed at Kirby tonight to verify that Kirby's trap is indeed a crossout designator)

Maxx C and Infinite Impermanence are worthless for town at the moment because it doesn't work on NK. Maxx C is actually a scum tool to avoid scanning. However if anyone gets scanned and the result comes up empty, you can infer they're scum that used Maxx C on their team. (scum also couldn't afford Maxx C or Infinite Impermanence yesterday with the lightning bolts and pots and traps and pot gambits and will no doubt blame the game on the cards being underpowered for scum and the watch being OP for town but I think the cards ultimately didn't matter much)

Monster Reborn is potentially cool but I honestly only see it as a way to get Hb's dying scan to the public. And if hb went scapegoat strats then we'll have that anyway (scum can't hit the trap with lightning before the nightkill tonight). Seems like a weaker play than the ghost at the moment.

Ghost belle is obviously a good card and has been mentioned before

There are also possibly usable cards coming tonight.

Below is the text of cards I mentioned for convenience. I deleted the ones I felt have no relevance to this game state.

Spell cards
Ash Blossom [300 Gems]
You target one player. The first spell or trap card they activate this day will be blocked.
Maxx C [400 Gems]
You target one player. That target is unaffected by powers or cards until the next night phase ends.
Monster Reborn [500 Gems]
Target one player in the graveyard. You repeat the power they used on their last target at the start of the day instead.

Trap Cards
Ghost Belle & Haunted Mansion [300 Gems]
Choose one player. If they die while his trap is set, you will learn who visited them at night.
Scapegoat [400 Gems]
If you are killed while this item is set, it delays your own death for 1 phase and you will lose all your powers permanently instead. Your vote will also not count towards majority anymore.
Infinite Impermanence [500 Gems]
You become untargetable until the next day phase. Anyone targeting you with a power, except the standard nightkill, will be roleblocked.

Everything is cheap before the competitive market exists for it.

If you think this tech is going to be widespread and easy and everyone is just going to do it off of freeware licenses because we're in a pirate's utopia you're more naive than I am.

There's going to be some super overpriced proprietary way to do it well and that's going to be the standard that stomps the competition down.

AriaOfBolo posted...

I think you're focusing too much on "will AI be good enough to replace humans?" when the more relevant question is "will AI be better for the bottom line?"

I don't think licensing this stuff will be as cheap as you think. Nor do I think configuring the AI to do voices as you want them will be as simple as you think.

Yes it'll be about bottom line but I feel it's going to be about throughput and bookkeeping more than raw cash. The only difference is you're hiring some AI engine operators (who ironically will probably be better paid than VA) instead of VA.

Like the cash efficient option has always been to remove VA entirely, and then beyond that has been to hire green no names. Clearly quality does matter at some level.

I mean I guess if they are the scum team they could do it as a Wifom play "Lopen said we were scum why would scum keep that alive"

All anyone needs to know is there is far too much circumstantial evidence piling up against it for hb to be scum, and scum team plays the game much safer if Abacus is gf and doesn't get greedy and try to lynch hb.

I could see hb being left alive if Kirby is scum gf and wants to be scanned. At this point I think BCT is actually the better scan target. Once you're sure he's scum it removes me and Sultan as possible scum because the interactions between us and BCT don't exist as scum/scum. And he isn't innocent scanning if he was afraid Sultan was daycop.

Kirby321 posted...

That's a rather convoluted role. I find it difficult Corrik bought Ring of Destruction N1, of all things. I wonder what cards Red would've purchased. Hmm...

I mean even this.

This is Kirby trying to lay groundwork to doubt chang's claim later.

He just can't turn it off.

0 chance I die. I'm the victory condition for scum this game. That's why I'm arguing so hard.

Luckily for us scum got greedy and didn't put enough effort into actually solving the game. That's really the only reason Kirby is obvious scum. You look at his posts today and you get a clear picture of a guy who is trying to keep as many mislynches on the table as possible and is keeping BCT off his suspect list inexplicably.

No one who is thinking through the game says "I believe hb but gee I hope Abacus isn't gf." No one.

Actually

Pot of Greed x2 being bought by Ben makes Sultan look a lot better too. That shows that

1. Scum thought day cop was in the game legitimately, as they bought more than they needed to gambit with.
2. Sultan soul reading BCT probably had BCT talking about it to scum team given his mind was clearly already thinking of it.

If Sultan is scum I don't think scum team is considering a day cop as a likely thing despite the pot of greed existing. He is the only one that really felt like one in my opinion.

Alright. Well, neat. Yeah. Feeling better and better I have it right. If you town clear Sultan it's Kirby by POE to say nothing of his paranoiamongering in here.

Okay good night for real now.

Though now that I look at it ring of destruction is the only particularly anti-town trap and it's kinda impossible for scum to use effectively without risking themselves.

That fusion trap seemed kinda devious but it was impossible to buy.

BlueCrystalTear posted...

Who took out my trap card? Anyone gonna take ownership of that?

Now knowing for sure it was scum shooting at their own traps this feels even more fake to say in a large post at the start of topic.

Actually doesn't that whole post I'm quoting seem a bit elaborate for 4 minutes into day (post 3 if you wanna look). Seems like the reaction from someone who would both know their trap got destroyed and that hb hadn't died already from scheming overnight, not a genuine reaction to new info.

Like as town I didn't care that my trap disappeared if anything it made me happy to have the slot freed up. Also I honestly thought town probably shot my trap because I hadn't thought about scum trying to blind lightning bolt hb's trap and some of the traps seemed anti-town.

What we can assume is Ben's 100g from day 1 was likely spent on pot of greed. Don't see a scum team continuing to buy those day 2.

That also means that if you think BCT was scum the pot used in the gambit were not from Ben. So scum probably has 550g less than printed, if you believe BCT is scum.

No Chang I don't make any sense haven't you been listening to Kirby

Anyway gonna be honest I'm struggling to see how auditing finances can be used to catch scum. What we know is they've spent 400g on blind fired lightning bolts. But their pool is around 1300g no matter what configuration you think they are and there aren't a lot of cards you can use to test things that are provable. So yeah I dunno. Maybe someone else can see a test there but I'm not.

It's also completely possible Peaf didn't swap anyone because, again, he doesn't redirect kills.

But if he did yeah probably Abacus

So here is the thing and where scum probably screwed up.

While yes Peaf would want to swap hb with scum in theory. In practice he must avoid picking hb's scan target so as to not interfere with scans if hb does survive.

And because he cant redirect kills (not that scum knew this) he probably picked someone he knew hb would not scan. Like Abacus for example.

Anyway my basic thought is that

1. You trying to solve the game through figuring out items is consistent with your ability
2. Your ability is too contrived to fake
3. You could have just not revealed this today

So those things in mind yeah I buy it. And your scapegoat theory I guess makes sense.

I don't think it really says anything about anyone's alignment though even though I think you reached the correct conclusion. It's just scum trying to read who they thought peaf thought was scum since they would be guessing the bus target.

Like it says nothing about the alignment of me or BCT that our stuff was destroyed because in theory they're just firing at the other end of the bus driver, right?

Oh scapegoat is pretty strong from cop I didn't even think of that.

I want money. I'll let someone else do it.

Well I know my trap was destroyed because I still have my pots of greed. And yeah the language was different.

I guess my question is more what trap do you think scum feared hb laying down enough that it was worth blind firing lightning storms for

Why did you cast the ring of destruction. What were you thinking you could do with it.

My head isn't even in your space here so like just spell it out for me

What were the traps initially?
Why do you think the traps were destroyed?
Why do you think scum spent money to destroy their own traps?

Like I'm totally confused why this matters.

...

Why are you focused so much on traps when you've got a trove of game material in the day phase here.

Like what is even the point of the traps being destroyed vs not and its significance to who is scum? That's the first thing you need to establish.

I'm not saying it'll be better or worse than the person necessarily I'm just saying it's not the person. You're not going to capture inferences Jennifer Hale is going to make about what a character should be with an AI because the data for that isn't going to exist in the training set. That data isn't included in voice clips.

You're going to get her voice that can be melded to what the director's vision is. Not the same thing. How valuable the intuition of a voice actor is going to vary per the voice actor and the part but yeah.

Ok bunch of nothing that is for me. Maybe someone familiar with the lore can spin why you guys probably are safelist but yeah doesn't change my feelings at all

Anyway as said if anyone wants more convincing on the team being Poppy, BCT, Kirby I'm more than happy to dig and find evidence. I will probably do it tomorrow regardless but I've convinced myself pretty well at this point just by looking at logic holes on stances wrt hb.

If anyone would like me to argue my own case as dumb town I can do that too. But yeah just let me know. Sleep time.

I'm tired and don't feel like waiting for BCT

Monarchs Town Vanilla here. Already revealed all the interesting stuff. Targeted Han n2 with pot of greed but it failed due to him dying so still have it.

Scummon Kirby321 for me please

Looks like I scared em away.

Trying to piece together the perfect pair of claims on the scum board no doubt.

GranzonEx posted...

You're getting hung up on the direction/performance of the voice from a real person when nobody said the AI VA will not have sound directors giving instuctions on their "performance". The "performance" is artificial but the "creativity" will still be human. Once the AI VA has essentially perfectly emulated Hale's voice it can in theory perform any character the director of the game/movie desires. And her voice can then be used in 500 games a year, without the need of her physically recording lines, and can even be used 500 years in the future at the discretion of her estate.

I guess what I'm saying I don't trust a sound director to make an AI voice do what a great voice actor would do.

Like I would expect a sound director using a Jennifer Hale AI to do basically what I said and have her voice imitate the existing Bayonetta, which is often no good. And if you had a Jennifer Hale AI that needed to do something completely new, sure an AI could be directed to do it but does it reach the same conclusion the actual Jennifer Hale does?

I just think there's a lot more skill and creativity in the acting direction from the VA themselves than just their voice. Saying you just want a character to sound like the VA and an AI with the guiding hand of a director is going to create the same content the genuine article would is dumbing down their role in the process immensely.

I am at least interested in Hale's Bayonetta and don't think it's something an AI can accurately approximate because we don't know what that actually means. Because we've never seen it. Would the voice be close to one of Hale's existing performances? Maybe? But how does the AI choose which one. Is it going to be Jennifer Hale doing knock off Hellena Taylor? Probably not.

Like you can absolutely use an AI to replicate an existing performance for different dialogue. It's a solution to a VA walking out of an established franchise, but the initial interpretation of a memorable character is entirely up to the VA and not something you can make an AI do in a satisfying way.