Lurker > Lopen

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

It still doesn't make sense. Exspshally for Scum unless you're scum together. Making himself look good while losing one of you or Han

It does if he locked himself into a play before reading the whole topic.

It makes more sense than suspecting you for claiming roleblocker that stopped the kill-- you being roleblocker who thought you stopped the kill is not a reason to think you're scum. Why would he think you're scum for that?

changmas posted...

yeah but he's 3p so who cares

This is interesting

Has Chang ever said he thinks Kirby is 3p?

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

Question lopen why would 3rd party or scum Kirby care to save town you?

Like why wouldn't they just let you get murdered for "sending in the kill"

Kirby didn't read the whole topic when he posted. He went after you for blood then eventually went BUHHHH when he saw me claim bulletproof.

Obellisk posted...

but lopen does it matter if he's 3rd party?

Possibly.

3rd party might be closer to winning than scum at this point, who really knows. I see Kirby as possible scum with 3rd party down side.

Chang is either miffed that I don't think he's going to be able to find scum to lynch or Chris really did make that joke, Kirby is cult leader, and Chang is a cultist. Either one, saying I'm spouting "ridiculous theories" comes off as forced when Kirby himself has spouted off roughly 10x as many as I have this game.

The fact that I'm not just drilling down on scare, who I'm not entirely convinced is scum, means I'm actually trying to solve the game

Sorry if that comes off as scummy to you. The arguments are there. No chance Kirby is town-- play does not fit town trying to solve the game. Play fits someone trying to avoid being lynched.

htaeD posted...

One problem with that plan is that they couldnt predict who the RB would block

Yes, they couldn't. But it could be guessed at based on existing suspicions in the game, knowing Han had been roleblocked only n2 (mapping players who suspect Han to remaining town you can narrow the field down a lot), and (possibly) knowing red had been blocked n1.

I'm not saying it's not a slam dunk play just a viable one, depending on who the scum are.

I tapped post by accident. On phone. Anyway. Han painting that argument may have been a way to buy Kirby time alive and make him not a suspect to be roleblocked.

It's really smart. Maybe too smart and I'm vastly overthinking things but I'm just saying.

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

This

Here's the play

Scum knows there is a roleblocker and doesnt expect to be blocked
Scum no kills and blocks Chang

This accomplishes many things

1. Town roleblocker thinks they made the kill, claims credit for it, gets town lynched
2. Town roleblocker is now under heavy fire due to causing town mislynch
3. Simultaneously Sultan becomes implicated if Chang claims roleblocked

That Sultan happened to be roleblocker reduces the upside on the play from 3 mislynches to 2 but it isn't an awful play. ESPECIALLY if parlayed into keeping pressure off a scum member due to them claiming indep-- er, bulletproof.

In fact Han painting a very clear argument Korby is independent may have been

changmas posted...

why does it have to be a blind roleblock? Han doesn't have to be the only scum player who rolecopped night 2. They could have known about IGCD

IGCD fully claimed his role and didn't claim blocked

Watcher flipped
Bus flipped
Cop flipped

Why is a blind roleblock a smart action?

changmas posted...

This is ridiculous.

Han was (correctly) very certain I didn't have an extra shot and was just bluffing. I'd be shocked if he ever roleblocks me and doubly shocked now that Sultan is effectively confirmed town.

Lopen back into pure nonsense theories once again yet I'm the one not digesting the game well. lmao

So who did scum roleblock night 3 then

Obellisk posted...

I've also leaned more town on lopen past 2 days but there's this itch that tells me it's just amazing acting

Like to me that's the first inclination I had that sbell town leaned me

Maybe I missed an earlier one

changmas posted...

SBell mostly doesn't

News to me. I don't think Sbell made that remotely clear until this morning.

Kirby321 posted...

Like, seriously, if you thought I was scum, why the hell did you not fight me on the Bulletproof counter-claim? Why was your immediate suspicion that I was the independent instead of, logically, scum?

I found evidence you were scum today, not yesterday.

Kirby321 posted...

it would've been far better to kill him off if Sultan was scum. Lopen was, in every way but one, the right lynch. Fortunately, Sultan executed Han, and that has convinced me he is town (WIFOM shenanigans notwithstanding)

Kirby321 posted...

Fake claiming Roleblocker seemed like such a zany and ridiculous idea that I wouldn't have put it past Sultan to do that as scum. But at the same time, outing himself as Roleblocker because he thought he stopped the kill was also crazy enough to believe. His claim was in-character because it was just absurd regardless of alignment.

These read to me like you're town reading Sultan for clout but still want to keep it open as a mislynch to argue later

You can do it as scum or independent. You've played the game today very much like someone whose top priority is to stay alive. I'd put you at like 80% indie 20% scum right now.

Sultan is not scum. The way he played yesterday makes that clear to me. I've no need to dig.

But if you're not sold, that's what you as town would be digging into.

Er day 1 and day 2. On those lists. I don't remember the tally but I do think red had more town mentions.

Red was also townread by a lot of people day 1, and Kirby had very low scum suspicion

Also if Red was blocked day 1, and they assume roleblocker is jumping around, Han and Red feel some sort of safety from it hitting them. Again, more reason why that play is more plausible to attempt

Who all was saying scum never no kills. I feel like it was red.

Scum framejob theory highly supports red being scum by the way-- that maneuver only occurs if scum is pretty sure roleblocker is the only protection left and they want it out of the way.

KirbyxRed as scum looking not terrible to me.

So if I'm scum do you think scum had me do nothing all game? I don't know why you're thinking role actions being revealed matter that much because in theory any scum flip would reveal things.

I also don't know why the conclusion you came to upon analyzing them is "ROLECOP BEING BLOCKED IS HUGE" rather than "Han used a roleblock night 3, why?" which to me is the much more interesting question to ask.

You also said Sultan being cleared is "wifom" but I think if you point out the roleblock being used night 3 you have a stronger case for Sultan being town if you think he's town, and a stronger case for Sultan being scum if he's scum, and you ignored that. Why? Sultan is the logical one to dig down into if you're on the fence on him being scum, currently.

Kirby321 posted...

I also noted that the claim was very in-character for Sultan to do

Also you don't play here, what do you know about Sultan's character?

Also if you still think I'm scum why does turning on Han vs just lynching me make him more townlike

Doubt

Kirby321 posted...

Sultan turning on Han like that instead of listening to the crowd saying Lopen was the logical lynch

This didn't actually happen, Scare and red were just loud.

So scum also knew that a roleblocker was in the game due to Han being blocked. No kill to frame/out the roleblocker seems like a pretty viable strategy at that point, if scum thought they weren't going to get blocked, particularly if Chang claims blocked as well. Perhaps Han suspected there wasn't going to be a double block of him and his mates had low suspicion.

If scum is doing some wacky framejob gambit, Kirby is on the table for sure as outright scum.

Kirby explain why you went so hard on Sultan early and why you were so sure Chang was blocked in topic 9.

Er being so sure scum blocked chang, not Sultan

Sultan on the brain.

Super tinfoil hat theory

Scum really did no kill for some reason, Kirby wasn't involved at all. It could be some sort of tech scum can do to gain points or whatever, or maybe they can save a kill to use an extra kill later as I was thinking.
Kirby knew scum fired off a roleblock at Chang, jumped the gun and executed the "suspect Sultan and claim bulletproof" plan before actually reading the topic, then saw I'd already claimed bulletproof upon reading everything and scrambled to "evolve" his suspicions. Naturally suspecting the person who claimed bulletproof when you are bulletproof is natural.
Kirby also like, says "AY YO WTFFF" instead of actually suspecting me at first which is weird.

Sorry you said you wanted more content and now I'm probably just being distracting. I do think an explanation from Kirby for being so sure scum blocked Sultan in that opening post is necessary though.

Although if Chang claims blocked, and Han claims he was blocked, that still leaves Sultan as scum blocker on the table, so maybe he doesn't think it matters if Chang claims blocked or not.

However the thing going against that being something that happened is Han claims blocked before Chang even posts.

But then the question is who did scum roleblock N3 if not Chang? Kirby, maybe, if they somehow figured out he was indie before then?

I dunno. I definitely don't like Kirby's reaction to everything seeing Han flipped roleblocker in any case.

I went back to investigate topic 3 and got to the point of Kirby's reveal of indepe-- er, bulletproof lol (topic 9, Page 336)

Kirby321 posted...

Holy fuck I have a lot to catch up on

But just reading the opening post... I am SO glad my idiotic plan worked AHAHAHA!!

... The timing is kinda bad, but I believe our momentum as Town can't get any larger than this! Scum fell for my trap hook, line, and sinker, baby!

Pray tell, scum, why'd you try to kill me and roleblock chang? Hmm? Trying to protect your teammate Sultan?

This stuck out to me a lot. Here Kirby is acting like it's a sure thing that scum roleblocked chang. And in the follow up posts, he's calling Sultan straight up scum, really hard. There isn't a reason to go that hard on Sultan unless you actually do think Chang was roleblocked-- Sultan thinking he stopped the kill is not unreasonable.

But here's the fun part. Han's flip says he DID roleblock someone night 3, and I'm thinking it likely was chang hoping to frame Sultan because I doubt firing off blind roleblocks is something that is worth using points on after they burnt so much on worthless godfathers.

Is this a scumslip from Kirby or is he an independent that has some weird track or watch type ability. I do recall Kirby being one of the main people who was talking about POINTS early on. He kinda has to be one or the other imo.

He also made no attempt to call me scum until he read I fake claimed bulletproof. Really that shouldn't make a huge difference to him one way or the other. He also gradually backed off Sultan as scum for no reason I recall, and I think it was just because he knew pushing that lynch would make people suspicious.

I do think that scare is the lynch today if we can't go red, but yeah Kirby is 100% something. I do not endorse him as the lynch obviously but if you're really unsure of who the scum is, it might be a decent move. There is a slight chance he is scum with that roleblock comment I think (he never mentioned chang being roleblocked again btw-- another bit of evidence it was a slip for me, but that could be a "only an independent would have the abilities to know if someone was roleblocked so I'll shut up now") but maybe I'm reading too much into it?

Kirby's thoughts on me should be ignored because he's literally only insisting I'm scum because I'm the only one who is still bringing up that he's obviously the independent.

Because he is the independent. If we get scum today whether to lynch him tomorrow should come down to whether meta says indie likely wins with town or not. I suspect it does not because I think Chris would find an independent with its own victory condition to be more interesting than something like survivor. I also don't think survivor would likely get a bulletproof charge-- kinda takes out some of the skill of navigating the game but maybe I'm wrong on what survivors typically get.

Scare is the best lynch today of your options pretty easily for me.

Hasn't really tried hard to push any scum lynches all game. Only real big push he had was to protect Han, who was scum. Only content today was him saying he's town and then trying to argue you should lynch me first if you think that which I've already pointed out why that's absurd to me-- no real scumhunting. I also really don't like that he argued double Godfather making himself look better. Taking red's hammer stuff seriously is not something I think he does being honest-- seems like he was testing the waters for a future red lynch. Now granted, if red is scum this is weird, but it's possible scare is laying this in place as wifom too knowing people would pick up on it.

Death is to me easily town. His thoughts have developed throughout the game in a way that feels authentic and he has really been trying to solve today. Not sure I agree with his conclusions but yeah.

MZero I'm inclined to think is just lazy town at this point. His thoughts do seem similar to Death in terms of thought behind them making sense. He's kinda like the lazy version of Death. I think if the scumteam is not Red + Scare as I think it is, MZero vs Death should really come down to what is more typical in the endgame. Does MZero act lazy as town when the game is kinda just at a PoE state? Does Death really go hard on trying to figure things out when he's alive late? The more likely scum of the two would be the one whose behavior is currently more at odds with what you'd expect, but that aside (since I don't know what the answer to that question is) I think MZero has more blemishes on his game than Death so if I had to lynch one I'd lynch MZero.

(Red is the best choice to me for previous reasons but you're not having it so whatever I'm just dropping it for now to not distract.)

Red's hammer thing is imo clearly a joke (and I thought Scare acting suspicious of it was actually weird) but I also don't think red has claimed

Third party cult leader with a bunch of CM Punk vanilla being the only players they could recruit would be the best. I really doubt cult leader would be in this setup but I would praise Chris highly for it.

Sbell I didn't say I trust your judgment I said I trust your judgment more. I do not think Chang is digesting the game well. I voted Sultan over him for the same reason, and stated such if you want to double check on that.

I'd vote Death if we were going for a guy I think is town that I have the most faith to lynch scum. He's saying he trusts red too so you know, sucks to be me but yeah.

Also Scare's logic for me being a better lynch is absurd.

Like in a vacuum with the Tidus scan candidates sure, but if you look at the end of yesterday Scare/Han/Lopen is not a scumteam that makes sense for Scare to go hard on defending Han OR Lopen. He was either a scummate trying to get a low hanging mislynch or misguided town. Why go in that much if you're scum and it's two scum fighting, laying low makes a lot more sense.

If you suspect Scare you go Scare. If you suspect me, you go me. You don't go me because you suspect Scare. That team just doesn't really make sense to me, trying to be objective as best I can.

I'm not saying it's an ironclad defense. Scare could very well be lynched today.

But I'm personally more suspicious of him due to Godfather flip, not less, particularly because he's trying to say it makes him look better. It does seem like something that would factor into risk management for sticking your neck out.

I think it's 3 mislynches now (not sure how indie fits into things) but I digress. When Scare was making the play there was another scum on table.

It's a damage control play

If Han isn't lynched, mission accomplished, town is lynched
If Han is lynched, he flips Godfather and suddenly people wonder "well if scum had that many godfathers would Scare prioritize lynching cop" and there's doubt that lynch makes him scummy (keep in mind I never judged him for it, but I am just that guy no one listens to)

We fell behind so far early that it only takes two more mislynches can lose the game. It's tactically sound to go hard defending your scum brethren.

I voted for Professor X because I actually managed to avoid the spoiler.

Placeholder vote for Hugh Jackman. Someday.

Bbig fears no futures to the moon baby

And if you think I'm not necessarily scum bit "just a better lynch than you due to logic" find someone who is more likely scum.

It's a convenient bus. Too convenient. I don't like you using it to try and exonerate yourself.

Trying to say "well you can lynch me but lynch Lopen first" feels like you're just trying to squeeze out some mislynches however you can. Maybe you should actually try and argue me being scum instead.

Behind red which is off the table so may as well be my #1

Scare using that argument for himself makes me think he's scum knowing Han would reveal double GF and forgive him for cop lynch

He's my #2 choice for today

I will flat out kill you my kind of king

Whatever.

Here's why you didn't address the role not making sense

If you don't address it, you leave the door open to walk it back today

Literally the only reason not to when pressed about it

You never pushed for Han being scum. Tell me what arguments you made for him being scum.

Very easy position to walk back today. Very very easy.

Saying "I wouldn't lose sleep over Han being lynched" isn't pushing for him to be lynched

That was my viewpoint on him the entire game and I was called out by Kirby for it being an avoidance tactic. Because that's exactly what it can be if used right.

"I don't trust this guy enough to think he's town" is not "this guy is scum"