Soo is Trump going to win again?

Im kinda getting worried he might >_>

Didn't he get a bunch of criminal charges attached to his person? Wouldn't those stop him running?

EclairReturns posted...

Didn't he get a bunch of criminal charges attached to his person? Wouldn't those stop him running?

Apparently not. I am not liking these polls tbh

I suspect he will win and bring us closer to a civil war.

This thing really is Biden's to lose. A lot of ppl don't realize how much steam Trump lost last election. While his base is still loyal a portion were done with him once the dust settled. Trump shouldn't have a snowballs chance. Unfortunately, Biden is weak, and were not for Trump, he would've never been president.

Honestly, even if he somehow loses, hell probably find some way to steal the election. Whether it be the Supreme Court, fucking with the electoral college, or violence, hes going to worm his way back into the White House.

Hes definitely gonna win

Dems gave it away by keeping biden

Bummer

Yeah cos biden isnt even competent to work at dairy queen yet we gave em the keys to the nukes.

Democrats are idiots for not finding any alternatives. I think democracy will fall. Nato will implode once we leave and the world will become even more unstable and maybe ending around 2030

It's very strange living in these times. We went from such relative peace to having the US reelect a fascist that openly has encouraged Russia to attack NATO allies. He easily could just not be that way and his inbred followers would still vote for him.

Future generations won't be able to understand this.

He really shouldnt. Hes a fascist who has a record of enticing violence and is currently in legal trouble for basically committing treason.

But unfortunately he somehow still has a chance.

Pretty sure covid wiped out enough republicans for it to matter.

papercup posted...

Honestly, even if he somehow loses, hell probably find some way to steal the election. Whether it be the Supreme Court, fucking with the electoral college, or violence, hes going to worm his way back into the White House.

If he couldn't do it in 2020, when he still had the executive branch at his beck and call, what makes you think 2024 would be any different?

People seem to forget that Trump's a flaming moron. Even if he wanted to pull a coup, he lacks the brainpower to do so.

Link_of_time posted...

This thing really is Biden's to lose. A lot of ppl don't realize how much steam Trump lost last election.

This is where I'm at.

Sure, Trump's got his base and they're as fanatical as ever... but he barely scraped out a win in 2016, he lost in 2020, and he's done nothing to expand his reach since that time. Like... what is he running on that would attract people not already in his cult? Immigrants "poisoning the blood of the nation"? That "Day 1 Dictator" nonsense? Pulling out of NATO? How are any of these supposed to be attractive to centrist voters on whom his election hinges?

Trump hasn't even really articulated any real policies he has for once he's back in office. Last time he at least talked about "the wall", as dumb an idea as that was, but he's even drifted away from that now.

I seriously doubt it, but who knows maybe I'll be surprised. It kind of sickens me how everybody wants to treat this guy like a normal candidate running for president, after everything he has said and done. Even the remotest defense of Trump triggers me to anger. Someone in another topic did the whole "lol orange man bad" thing, but the truth is there is absolutely nothing to his character beyond just being a bad person.

It would be very painful

darkknight109 posted...

Sure, Trump's got his base and they're as fanatical as ever... but he barely scraped out a win in 2016, he lost in 2020, and he's done nothing to expand his reach since that time. Like... what is he running on that would attract people not already in his cult? Immigrants "poisoning the blood of the nation"? That "Day 1 Dictator" nonsense? Pulling out of NATO? How are any of these supposed to be attractive to centrist voters on whom his election hinges?

The only thing that might tip things back in Trump's favour is nothing Trump's done to become more popular, but what Biden's done to become less popular. Biden's response to Israel has turned off a ton of would-be Democratic voters, and while there's zero reason to believe Trump wouldn't keep helping with the genocide (remembering that he moved the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem in an overt display of taking sides in the conflict) and ample reason to believe he'd make things worse for Arabic/Muslim Americans (he didn't follow through with it, but I've never forgotten when he was campaigning in 14-15 and suggested registering all Muslims as a counter-terrorist measure), choosing not to vote at all because people don't want to vote for Biden is half as effective for electing Trump as voting for Trump over Biden.

The 2020 election was intense. Both Biden and Trump got significantly more votes than any other presidential candidate in history, entirely because people were so fired up about whether or not they wanted Trump in office. Trump has lost a lot of steam among moderates, and certainly his newest rhetoric isn't helping that, but that makes the stakes seem lower and Biden hasn't exactly excited anyone, so he's also lost a lot of steam. So... I'm not sure what to expect. It's going to come pretty much entirely down to voter turnout: If too many people stay home on election day because they don't care, Trump will win. If enough people get out and vote for who they think sucks the least despite being less than enthusiastic about the whole thing, Biden will.

Im not American so ive no real idea what he was like as president, but he seems like fun compared to biden, you never really hear anything about him compared to trump.

Going for the 3peet

darkknight109 posted...

what makes you think 2024 would be any different?

Because they know what to do now.

adjl posted...

choosing not to vote at all because people don't want to vote for Biden is half as effective for electing Trump as voting for Trump over Biden.

This kind of thinking always bothers me, a non vote or 3rd party vote isn't the same as vote for *candidate you don't like*, I have been told a vote for 3rd parties is a vote for either candidate depending who I'm talking to.

No.

Muscles posted...

This kind of thinking always bothers me, a non vote or 3rd party vote isn't the same as vote for *candidate you don't like*, I have been told a vote for 3rd parties is a vote for either candidate depending who I'm talking to.

I would put it this way. Who are you most opposed to? A vote for a third party is most likely to benefit whoever you least want to win.

Let's say you're a Trump supporter. You like his policies, but maybe you don't like his rhetoric or you think he's going about things the wrong way, or the criminal charges bother you. So you say hey, I hate Biden, but I can't bring myself to voting for Trump, even though I agree with him on most things. So let me vote for a third party candidate whom I find more palatable than Trump, but doesn't have his baggage. This basically takes a vote away from the guy you kind of like, Trump, and gives a vote to someone who has zero chance of winning. Essentially reducing Trump's vote count by one. And thus making it more likely for Biden to be elected.

Let's say you prefer Biden over Trump, because Trump wants to end democracy and has fascistic tendencies that you just can't get on board with. You find some of Biden's policies okay, but you just don't like Biden. Maybe you are concerned about the Hunter Biden laptop stuff, or maybe you think his handling of Israel just makes voting for him a non-starter. Even though you think his policies are most certainly better than Trump's, or you're at least closer to him than Trump on policy. You decide to vote third party. Again, this essentially takes a vote away from Biden and increases the likelihood that Trump, the person you despise much more, is elected.

In our current system, voting for a third party is equivalent to taking away a vote from the person from the two main options who you are more closely aligned with, but aren't fully on board with, thus making the other person who you dislike even more, more likely to get elected.

Hopefully. America is basically already a failed state, the great experiment has certainly died. Re-electing Trump would only hasten that downward spiral but then not electing him might precipitate serious violence so

But a Trump election is precisely what's needed to underscore to my own continent, Europe, that it must now stand alone. That's something I want, Europe is capable of doing its own thing and protecting itself, providing the political will is there. I think Europeans seeing America be... Well, "American", will act as a catalyst to gaining that political will.

Sure as hell hope not

A vote for a third party candidate does not work in favor of Trump or Biden. Unless maybe you are in a state that could go either way.

crazyisgood posted...

A vote for a third party candidate does not work in favor of Trump or Biden. Unless maybe you are in a state that could go either way.

Voting third-party works in favour of whichever candidate has the fewest third-party alternatives to split the vote. Philosophically, that's more likely to favour conservative/regressive candidates over a progressive one, by simple virtue of there being more ways to progress and try new things than to stay the same/revert to a past state. In practice, of course, it really depends how many candidates there are and which main ones they most closely align with, since that affects whose votes they split.

In the US, the observed trend is that lower voter turnout favours the GOP, especially when looking at more politically educated demographics. Voting third-party is functionally comparable to not voting at all, and given that those voting third-party tend to be more politically educated (instead of just voting for whoever their parents/peers do like so many voters), it can be expected that a higher third-party turnout will favour the GOP.

Barring no big surprises by November, I think he will. But Im anticipating such surprises along the way.

Jkd91 posted...

Im not American so ive no real idea what he was like as president, but he seems like fun compared to biden, you never really hear anything about him compared to trump.

My life really didn't change under him. I'm not everybody though. Gas prices went down but I've never been one to believe the president had some magical lever to control gas prices. They've been all over the place under Biden.

shockthemonkey posted...

If Trump wins itll be by razor thin margins in states controlled by Republicans.

Oh, he'll almost certainly win handily in most republican states. That's nothing he can personally take credit for, though. That's just because there'll be an R next to his name.

GameReviews posted...

I would put it this way. Who are you most opposed to? A vote for a third party is most likely to benefit whoever you least want to win.

Let's say you're a Trump supporter. You like his policies, but maybe you don't like his rhetoric or you think he's going about things the wrong way, or the criminal charges bother you. So you say hey, I hate Biden, but I can't bring myself to voting for Trump, even though I agree with him on most things. So let me vote for a third party candidate whom I find more palatable than Trump, but doesn't have his baggage. This basically takes a vote away from the guy you kind of like, Trump, and gives a vote to someone who has zero chance of winning. Essentially reducing Trump's vote count by one. And thus making it more likely for Biden to be elected.

Let's say you prefer Biden over Trump, because Trump wants to end democracy and has fascistic tendencies that you just can't get on board with. You find some of Biden's policies okay, but you just don't like Biden. Maybe you are concerned about the Hunter Biden laptop stuff, or maybe you think his handling of Israel just makes voting for him a non-starter. Even though you think his policies are most certainly better than Trump's, or you're at least closer to him than Trump on policy. You decide to vote third party. Again, this essentially takes a vote away from Biden and increases the likelihood that Trump, the person you despise much more, is elected.

In our current system, voting for a third party is equivalent to taking away a vote from the person from the two main options who you are more closely aligned with, but aren't fully on board with, thus making the other person who you dislike even more, more likely to get elected.

adjl posted...

Voting third-party works in favour of whichever candidate has the fewest third-party alternatives to split the vote. Philosophically, that's more likely to favour conservative/regressive candidates over a progressive one, by simple virtue of there being more ways to progress and try new things than to stay the same/revert to a past state. In practice, of course, it really depends how many candidates there are and which main ones they most closely align with, since that affects whose votes they split.

In the US, the observed trend is that lower voter turnout favours the GOP, especially when looking at more politically educated demographics. Voting third-party is functionally comparable to not voting at all, and given that those voting third-party tend to be more politically educated (instead of just voting for whoever their parents/peers do like so many voters), it can be expected that a higher third-party turnout will favour the GOP.

You 2 are forgetting 1 very important thing. A vote for Trump in Illinois is a wasted vote, and a vote for Biden in Texas is a wasted vote, to an even bigger degree than a 3rd party. 3rd parties need to get to 5% of the total vote to be invited to next election's debates and shit, but the 2 big parties need to win the state to meet their goals, or at least get enough electoral votes in states that can split. I live in Illinois, my vote already doesn't matter because it'll go blue regardless of who I vote for, but I can help a 3rd party get to the debate stage next cycle.

Jkd91 posted...

Im not American so ive no real idea what he was like as president, but he seems like fun compared to biden, you never really hear anything about him compared to trump.

That's the point. If the president is doing a good job then you don't hear anything about him.

Muscles posted...

This kind of thinking always bothers me, a non vote or 3rd party vote isn't the same as vote for *candidate you don't like*, I have been told a vote for 3rd parties is a vote for either candidate depending who I'm talking to.

crazyisgood posted...

A vote for a third party candidate does not work in favor of Trump or Biden. Unless maybe you are in a state that could go either way.

It's almost like some of you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about, and just repeat the same dumb things over and over again. Are you both just choosing to be willingly ignorant, or do you actually not understand how this all works? Genuinely curious, ok?

Muscles posted...

You 2 are forgetting 1 very important thing. A vote for Trump in Illinois is a wasted vote, and a vote for Biden in Texas is a wasted vote, to an even bigger degree than a 3rd party. 3rd parties need to get to 5% of the total vote to be invited to next election's debates and s***, but the 2 big parties need to win the state to meet their goals, or at least get enough electoral votes in states that can split. I live in Illinois, my vote already doesn't matter because it'll go blue regardless of who I vote for, but I can help a 3rd party get to the debate stage next cycle.

I would actually say that Biden is more likely to be elected in Texas than any third party is to get 5% of the total vote. It's certainly safer to vote third-party in states where there's very little chance of your less-desired candidate winning, but it's still equivalent to throwing away your vote and helping along that less-desirable candidate.

Texas has been pulling more and more high tech production towards them, that's where most of the jobs are for my field.
There's a nonzero chance that it flips with all of the moving.

The republican nomination? Yes. The presidency? Not sure. Trump does best when he's NOT in the spotlight and he's been even more psychotic and rambling at rallies while mixing up names of everyone he hates so when it comes down to brass tacks, with the economy recovering, i have a hard time seeing moderates and independents taking a chance on him again. He advantage in 2016 was being an unknown factor, everyone is acutely aware of the chaos a Trump administration brings now.

shockthemonkey posted...

Theres a reason Texass criminal Attorney General is trying to disenfranchise as many people as possible. He brags about it.

I mean, scummy though that is, it's really not going to affect the presidential election. Though starting to trend a lot more purple than in the past, Texas still isn't what anyone but the hopelessly overoptimistic would call a swing state. Regardless of Paxton's fuckery, Trump's not going to have any problems winning there.

Jkd91 posted...

Im not American so ive no real idea what he was like as president, but he seems like fun compared to biden, you never really hear anything about him compared to trump.

That's a good thing.

Politics aren't supposed to be "fun" - they're supposed to be boring. Biden was the boring candidate in 2020, he'll be the boring candidate in 2024, and having seen what the alternative brought, I am 100% all-in on boring.

Is he capable of MAGA though? (Or at least making it better then it currently is)

I'm not as worried as I was the last couple of elections, tbh. Incumbent presidents tend to get re-elected when the economy is strong and they're not wrapped up in any ( real ) enormous scandals. Trump has doubled the amount of scandals since his last presidency plus he's been burning bridges in his own party left and right along with voters. Plus I think we'll get enough people who are genuinely sick of Trump's drama who don't necessarily show up in polls at the moment, ok?

darkknight109 posted...

That's a good thing.

Politics aren't supposed to be "fun" - they're supposed to be boring. Biden was the boring candidate in 2020, he'll be the boring candidate in 2024, and having seen what the alternative brought, I am 100% all-in on boring.

Indeed. By and large, the president *should* be boring. Most of the exciting things that are actually improvements happen at the state or municipal level, rather than being something the president really controls. When exciting stuff does happen at the federal level, it's usually either the SC responsible for it (and I don't trust the current court to do anything good-exciting), or it's something bad like going to war.

For the sake of the USA I hope so .

Samus0075 posted...

For the sake of the USA I hope so .

o.0

I hope not.

I hope all the people refusing to vote for Biden because of his stance on Israel feel real proud of themselves when Trump sends our troops to fight for them.

NightingaleMD posted...

Hes definitely gonna win

Dems gave it away by keeping biden

Bummer

So says the Nikki Haley stan.

Zareth posted...

I hope all the people refusing to vote for Biden because of his stance on Israel feel real proud of themselves when Trump sends our troops to fight for them.

Why do you think that will happen

shadowsword87 posted...

Texas has been pulling more and more high tech production towards them, that's where most of the jobs are for my field.
There's a nonzero chance that it flips with all of the moving.

Lol.

shadowsword87 posted...

Texas has been pulling more and more high tech production towards them, that's where most of the jobs are for my field.
There's a nonzero chance that it flips with all of the moving.

People have been saying this every election cycle since at least 2016, and not only has Texas never flipped, it's never even really come close.

In 2016, Trump beat Clinton by 9 points statewide, and in 2020 he beat Biden by 6 points (notably dramatically outperforming the polls, which expected him to win by 1-2 points). Calling elections this far out is a mug's game, but thus far there's nothing in the polls that suggest that Trump is in any real danger of losing Texas in 2024.

And that's backed up down-ballot. Abbott thumped O'Rourke in the 2022 gubernatorial election by 11 points and in so doing, marked 30 years of Republican rule over the state (the last time a Democrat won the Texas Governor's mansion was in 1990). Texas's senators are both Republican, and have been since the 90s; the House reps are also roughly two-thirds Republican (though that, at least, is a bit misleading due to Texas having some pretty wild gerrymandering that favours the Republicans), and both the state house and state senate are controlled by Republicans.

Texas is slowly, slowly going more blue, but the odds that it actually flips this election are pretty negligible.

Aculo posted...

I'm not as worried as I was the last couple of elections, tbh. Incumbent presidents tend to get re-elected when the economy is strong and they're not wrapped up in any (real) enormous scandals.

The only caveat here is the US seems to be moving into a new era of politics, and a lot of the old "conventional wisdom" no longer applies.

By conventional wisdom, Donald Trump never should have gotten anywhere close to the Republican nomination, nevermind the actual presidency. To cherry-pick one example, Howard Dean's presidential ambitions ended because he screamed wrong; yet Trump survived scandals that would have sunk any politician from 10+ years ago. By conventional wisdom, the 2022 midterms - where the Democrats had the presidency, but were presiding over a somewhat moribund economy - should have been a landslide for the Republicans, but instead the Republicans held the senate and only barely lost the House. A lot of the polling in the last two election cycles has completely whiffed on their predictions (both Biden and Hillary were expected to cruise to easy victories; the former only barely squeaked out a win, coming perilously close to losing critical swing states, while the latter ultimately lost by similar margins; similarly, Texas and Florida in 2020 and Ohio in 2016 were supposed to be toss-ups, but the Republicans dominated in all three states).

"Conventional wisdom" appears to be failing us, and I think we still haven't fully figured out what the new normal for this era is.

*bumps head straight into topic and starts reading*

kind9 posted...

I seriously doubt it, but who knows maybe I'll be surprised. It kind of sickens me how everybody wants to treat this guy like a normal candidate running for president, after everything he has said and done. Even the remotest defense of Trump triggers me to anger. Someone in another topic did the whole "lol orange man bad" thing, but the truth is there is absolutely nothing to his character beyond just being a bad person.

Orange man baddest bad we ever had