Muscles posted...
You 2 are forgetting 1 very important thing. A vote for Trump in Illinois is a wasted vote, and a vote for Biden in Texas is a wasted vote, to an even bigger degree than a 3rd party. 3rd parties need to get to 5% of the total vote to be invited to next election's debates and s***, but the 2 big parties need to win the state to meet their goals, or at least get enough electoral votes in states that can split. I live in Illinois, my vote already doesn't matter because it'll go blue regardless of who I vote for, but I can help a 3rd party get to the debate stage next cycle.
I would actually say that Biden is more likely to be elected in Texas than any third party is to get 5% of the total vote. It's certainly
safer
to vote third-party in states where there's very little chance of your less-desired candidate winning, but it's still equivalent to throwing away your vote and helping along that less-desirable candidate.