Current Events > CNN: Harris leading in WI, MI

(+) Yeah! (+)

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4961843-polls-show-vice-president-harris-leading-trump/

New polls for CNN find Vice President Harris with a 6-point lead over former President Trump in Wisconsin and a 5-point lead in Michigan.
The polls, conducted by SSRS, found Harris leading Trump in Wisconsin with 51 percent support to his 45 percent among likely voters. In Michigan, she led with 48 percent support to 43 percent.

The showings are better than Harris has managed in other recent polls of the two critical swing states.

In Pennsylvania, one of the blue wall states for Democrats, the two candidates are tied at 48 percent support among likely voters, the CNN poll found.

While the percentages from the poll in Michigan did not reveal an increase from a previous survey taken in August, support did increase by 1 percentage point for each candidate in Pennsylvania, going from 47 percent to 48 percent each. In Wisconsin, support for both Harris and Trump increased by 1 point since August, the poll found.

When asked if their choice was more a vote for Harris or more a vote against Trump, 59 percent of likely voters in Michigan said it was for Harris, compared to 40 percent who said it was against Trump, the survey showed.

I struggle to believe PA is really that close.

"This is how this is bad for Harris..."

I literally do not believe she's 6 points ahead in WI

LightSnake posted...

I literally do not believe she's 6 points ahead in WI

I'm in Wisconsin, and same.

LightSnake posted...

I literally do not believe she's 6 points ahead in WI

Yeah, the polling is really hard to believe, even more than ever. It's all over the place.

This standby still applies: >polls

LightSnake posted...

I literally do not believe she's 6 points ahead in WI

As much as I want her to win, same. Ive been there lots of times and.its not that blue.

Metal_Gear_Raxis posted...

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4961843-polls-show-vice-president-harris-leading-trump/

I struggle to believe PA is really that close.

Trump won PA in 2016. It's not safe by any means

LightSnake posted...

I literally do not believe she's 6 points ahead in WI

Fair enough, my bad, just sharing something I saw on R/politics.

lilORANG posted...

Trump won PA in 2016. It's not safe by any means

Rural PA hates Hillary Clinton. They don't know why they hate her, but they hate her. The last Republican to win PA was daddy Bush.

Cartoon_Quoter posted...

Rural PA hates Hillary Clinton. They don't know why they hate her, but they hate her. The last Republican to win PA was daddy Bush.

Haven't the rural areas been losing more people lately?

Metal_Gear_Raxis posted...

Fair enough, my bad, just sharing something I saw on R/politics.

IT's not BAD, I believe she's ahead, but WI will be the closest of the big 3

LonelyStoner posted...

As much as I want her to win, same. Ive been there lots of times and.its not that blue.

I just drove through rural Wisconson in August, Green Bay to the Dells, and it was like a different world. Literal shrines erected for Trump in people's yards, it was like Halloween or Christmas decorating, but Trump. I don't even think there were normal ads on TV in the hotel rooms, it was just constant back and forth political ads.

He isn't winning PA. I guarantee it. He isn't making up the 80K Biden won the state by with this terrible of a campaign, especially since passing off the large PR community here.

Literally have not seen any WI/MI polls in weeks that didn't have them within 1 point of each other.

LightSnake posted...

I literally do not believe she's 6 points ahead in WI

Me either. I see like over a hundred Trump signs. Not even the small ones like the big ones.

sfcalimari posted...

Literally have not seen any WI/MI polls in weeks that didn't have them within 1 point of each other.

It's actually nice to see an outlier.

Silver pointed it out today that polls are heavily engaging in herding this year, because there's been no real outliers. At least one or two polls should be giving us weird shit like a trump +5 or Harris +7. If anything it's making polls look worse

Goldice posted...

It's actually nice to see an outlier.

Silver pointed it out today that polls are heavily engaging in herding this year, because there's been no real outliers. At least one or two polls should be giving us weird shit like a trump +5 or Harris +7. If anything it's making polls look worse

I saw a graph earlier of what the distribution of polls looks like compared to what it theoretically should look like if they were tied. I'll try to find it

Edit: found it
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/f/fba5d876.jpg

LightSnake posted...

I literally do not believe she's 6 points ahead in WI

The margin of error in Wisconsin was 4.9 points

The poll would have her being only 1 point ahead within the margin of error. The thing a lot of people seem to be ignoring with how close all the polls are is how they keep falling within a margin of error that suggests the election is indeed a coin flip.

UnholyMudcrab posted...

I saw a graph earlier of what the distribution of polls looks like compared to what it theoretically should look like if they were tied. I'll try to find it

Edit: found it
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/f/fba5d876.jpg

Are you implying that all the polls are conspiring to present the election as closer to 50/50 than it really is? What would be the benefit to that?

Hejiru posted...

Are you implying that all the polls are conspiring to present the election as closer to 50/50 than it really is? What would be the benefit to that?

TV ratings

Also, I find it very, very hard to believe that Harris is up 6 in WI and tied in PA.

Hejiru posted...

Are you implying that all the polls are conspiring to present the election as closer to 50/50 than it really is? What would be the benefit to that?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8CTeLy3Ujxc

Hejiru posted...

Are you implying that all the polls are conspiring to present the election as closer to 50/50 than it really is? What would be the benefit to that?

Everyone is terrified of being wrong three elections in a row, so they just herd toward the middle because they think it will limit the potential damage to their reputation.

UnholyMudcrab posted...

Everyone is terrified of being wrong three elections in a row, so they just herd toward the middle because they think it will limit the potential damage to their reputation.

They're kinda late to the party then.

After all we've been through in the last few elections, the fact that people still trust polls baffles me

Hejiru posted...

Are you implying that all the polls are conspiring to present the election as closer to 50/50 than it really is? What would be the benefit to that?

Its not that they're all doing this as one giant conspiracy. But rather that there's a lot of "herding" going on.

The problem is even if the election was a true 50/50, we should be seeing a bunch of outliers (Like Harris +10 in WI) solely because of polling static and statistical likelihood of polling groups occasionally just being heavily weighted to a side. Similar to how if you flip a coin 1000 times, you'll end up close to 50/50 but if you were to take a "snapshot" of 10 flips you'll see stuff like 8H 2T (which would be an outlier in your result set).

This is normal and good. Silver has mentioned in the past that outliers are healthy for polling and the best thing to do is go "huh how about that" and throw it on the pile.

We re not. Which indicates that pollsters are afraid of botching this election that they're either getting outliers and changing weights around or they're doing something because they feel the race should be close and are deathly afraid of missing this one. Probably figuring if they say it's close and trump overperforms or Harris overperforms, it won't be as bad as 2016 and 2020.

But there's something fishy that in all these states polls are constantly spitting out the same ranges.

https://youtu.be/zLrKJ1JTXvc?si=47p8hwcQYDFov4_b

UnholyMudcrab posted...

Everyone is terrified of being wrong three elections in a row, so they just herd toward the middle because they think it will limit the potential damage to their reputation.

This is the only actually correct conspiracy. Public perception of polls doesn't include margin of error. So even if a poll was accurate within its margin of error the public perception is that the poll was wrong. And we see it on this board constantly with the "lol polls" crowd. So what's the best thing to do as a pollster if the public is losing faith in your accuracy? Herding.

https://aapor.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Herding-508.pdf

ssjevot posted...

This is the only actually correct conspiracy. Public perception of polls doesn't include margin of error. So even if a poll was accurate within its margin of error the public perception is that the poll was wrong. And we see it on this board constantly with the "lol polls" crowd. So what's the best thing to do as a pollster if the public is losing faith in your accuracy? Herding.

https://aapor.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Herding-508.pdf

Look, I do really believe so many polls are actually tied with those numbers, that is 100 percent herding

I'm also noting? Basically everything except consistently tied national polls shows a major Democratic advantage. We're about to learn if polls are all that matter or herding is a very real problem. Both seem plausible.

Harris is consistently leading now in state polling with little variance. There seems to be major Democratic enthusiasm, and registration and voting numbers look optimistic.

LightSnake posted...

I'm also noting? Basically everything except consistently tied national polls shows a major Democratic advantage. We're about to learn if polls are all that matter or herding is a very real problem. Both seem plausible.

Harris is consistently leading now in state polling with little variance. There seems to be major Democratic enthusiasm, and registration and voting numbers look optimistic.

The problem is that whether herding is or isn't happening anything short of a blowout would be well within the margin of error for what the polls are showing. It's a perception issue that there isn't much they can do about. The average person completely ignored margin of error. This means close elections like these will be viewed as polls being wrong, even though for all the non-swing states we are able to statistically predict their results with no mistakes because the difference is large enough that it's well outside the margin of error.

ssjevot posted...

The problem is that whether herding is or isn't happening anything short of a blowout would be well within the margin of error for what the polls are showing. It's a perception issue that there isn't much they can do about. The average person completely ignored margin of error. This means close elections like these will be viewed as polls being wrong, even though for all the non-swing states we are able to statistically predict their results with no mistakes because the difference is large enough that it's well outside the margin of error.

At this point, I'm accepting garbage GOP polls are just a fact of life we'll have to deal with

Feels like unskewing the polls in here. If you leave out the GOP garbage polls, it's still pretty clear that Kamala has completely lost her momentum and Trump has had a mini-surge right when it matters, in PA/NV/WI/MI.

Not sure who to blame when Trump wins, probably Netanyahu for dragging down Kamala and the media for constantly sanewashing Trump. I haven't heard much about foreign interference but I'm sure Putin's troll army is constantly working in the background.

sfcalimari posted...

Feels like unskewing the polls in here. If you leave out the GOP garbage polls, it's still pretty clear that Kamala has completely lost her momentum and Trump has had a mini-surge right when it matters, in PA/NV/WI/MI.

Not sure who to blame when Trump wins, probably Netanyahu for dragging down Kamala and the media for constantly sanewashing Trump. I haven't heard much about foreign interference but I'm sure Putin's troll army is constantly working in the background.

Shut the fuck up, doomer.

Gallup has Democrats with a 10 point enthusiasm advantage over Republicans.

Hypnospace posted...

You mean the same state that Hillary didn't even campaign in?

Hillary campaigned in Pennsylvania, she didn't campaign in Wisconsin.