Current Events > Harris Up +3 in New Suffolk PA Poll

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KI_Simpson
09/17/24 12:41:17 AM
#51:


No one needs to be told not to get complacent or that 2016 was bad, spreading fear and despair does not help anyone. And yes, that's what you're doing when you shout down good news and bring up something that was genuinely traumatic for a lot of people. People not voting for Clinton because they disliked her and assumed she would win anyway is not even remotely the same as people being excited about Harris's momentum.

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Diceheist
09/17/24 12:54:12 AM
#52:


Trumpover, dude has run a terrible campaign.
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Humble_Novice
09/17/24 3:19:01 AM
#53:


Starks posted...
And it's sad. Because Nate's whole schtick initially was that the data should speak for itself and only careful curation should occur.
Goes to show how greed can corrupt people.
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Charismic_Zach_Gowen
09/17/24 8:27:06 AM
#54:


Humble_Novice posted...
Goes to show how greed can corrupt people.

It's not just greed. It's narcissism on Nate. His descent to MAGA puppet began in 2020 when he started stepping out of his lane and started trying to use his methodology to attack COVID restrictions and other related matters that he had no fucking clue about. When people told him to shut the fuck up, he became more and more enraged and susceptible to "trolling the libs".

It's the exact fucking path Elon went down. Remember he was pretty well received in liberal circles and then those kids got trapped in that cavern and Elon tried to interject in a matter he had no fucking clue over. He got told to shut the fuck up and started calling the actual rescuers pedophiles.

Narcissism is one hell of a drug

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LightSnake
09/17/24 8:29:56 AM
#55:


I agree with Nate, but Elon was an apartheid heir who was a horrible shit even as a kid. That's more of what exposed him rather than radicalized him. He was always horrible.

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ClayGuida
09/17/24 10:14:37 AM
#56:


I think what turned the masses on Elon was his covid rhetoric. He was basically parroting Trump's bullshit that it was a flu and it'd go away by Easter. He doubled and tripled down on it and I think that was when people were like, oh this guy's just a rich idiot and then Glass Onion was written.

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ClayGuida
09/17/24 2:02:04 PM
#57:


Morning Consult has Harris +6, 51-45.

https://www.axios.com/2024/09/17/harris-leads-trump-poll-after-debate-record

Vice President Kamala Harris leapt to a six-point lead over former President Trump in the wake of last week's presidential debate, according to a Morning Consult poll published Tuesday.
Why it matters: Most polls before last Tuesday's debate that saw Harris rattle Trump on a range of topics had the pair locked in a virtual dead heat.
"A majority of likely voters including 1 in 5 Republicans believe Harris won the debate, and performance appears to be crystalizing her national lead over the former president," said Eli Yokley, political analyst at Morning Consult, in an emailed statement.
Driving the news: Morning Consult pollsters surveyed 11,022 likely U.S. voters from Sept. 13-15 in the poll, which had an unweighted margin of error of +/-1 percentage point.
Morning Consult notes that its survey showing support for Harris at 51% compared to 45% for Trump was a "new record" for the Democratic presidential nominee.
"Her 51% of support among likely voters, which is also at a record high, is driven largely by her best figures to date among Democrats, Biden 2020 voters, liberals, women, 18- to 34-year-olds and millennials," it said.
How it works: Morning Consult's voter criteria includes any registered voters who say they're highly likely to vote in the November election.
A 1-10 scale was used to identify likely voters, with a "1" meaning the respondent noted they will definitely not vote in the November 2024 presidential election and a "10" meaning they definitely will. Only respondents who rated themselves an "8" or higher were considered likely voters.
The results don't include responses among voters who were initially undecided and were asked to pick which candidate they're leaning toward.
Between the lines: Both Harris and Trump are courting young adults voters, whom Axios' Noah Bressner notes are one of the largest groups of undecideds and persuadables left in this presidential election.

Trump is aiming for the "bro" vote with appearances on podcasts and at UFC fights, while Harris is appealing to young women, who've been moving steadily left in recent years amid a surge in activism on issues like abortion in the face of conservative policies.
Harris enjoyed a boost moments after the debate when Taylor Swift endorsed her on the singer's Instagram account, which has 284 million followers. Swift linked to Vote.gov in her Instagram story and directly drove some 338,000 visits in 15 hours to the federal voter registration site.
The bottom line: Harris "is enjoying a positive news cycle among the likely electorate this year that's earning her positive marks and aligns with her best numbers yet in the head-to-head contest" against Republican presidential nominee Trump, Yokley said.

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Tyranthraxus
09/17/24 2:04:00 PM
#58:


ClayGuida posted...


Trump seems incensed about it too.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/0/0537d307.jpg

There's no way that's real. You expect me to believe he knows and can spell the word Skullduggery?

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UnholyMudcrab
09/17/24 2:04:33 PM
#59:


Well, at least he didn't spell it "cease and assist" this time. Does that count as progress?

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ClayGuida
09/17/24 2:09:14 PM
#60:


Not sure if that's real now. Seems there was another post similar before the debate. Gonna delete it.

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GrandConjuraton
09/17/24 4:19:43 PM
#61:


Trump is down in the polls. Here's how this is bad for Kamala:

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ReiRei89
09/17/24 6:45:23 PM
#62:


GrandConjuraton posted...
Trump is down in the polls. Here's how this is bad for Kamala:
Nate Silver in his latest post on his site said Harris is still being punished in his model over a nonexistent convention bounce. He also said it's not going away anytime soon. So yeah, his model is trash.

Oh and we are getting one or two more high quality PA polls this week so I'll probably keep this thread open for them.

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GhostFaceLeaks
09/17/24 6:49:09 PM
#63:


Tora_Sami posted...
This, it's getting annoying when people say who cares vote. Like yes we are all still going to vote, no shit.

We do not want another 2016 situation since one of the many reasons why Hilary lost is that people got complacent and didn't vote. So we have to remind people to vote to not get any complacency.

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ReiRei89
09/17/24 6:51:18 PM
#64:


GhostFaceLeaks posted...
We do not want another 2016 situation since one of the many reasons why Hilary lost is that people got complacent and didn't vote. So we have to remind people to vote to not get any complacency.
Hillary only narrowly lost after 30 years of being slandered, having next to no enthusiasm, and being October Surprised by Comey the week before the election.

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008Zulu
09/17/24 7:05:05 PM
#65:


Tyranthraxus posted...
There's no way that's real. You expect me to believe he knows and can spell the word Skullduggery?
He was looking through he desk for his emergency KFC ration, and found the "Word a Day" calendar Eric got him for his birthday in 1996. January 1st's word was Skullduggery.

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ReiRei89
09/17/24 7:17:25 PM
#66:


And pretty sure that's a real "truth" from Dipshit. I saw it posted on r/ Politics.

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UnholyMudcrab
09/17/24 7:19:24 PM
#67:


He's definitely made a post before with the word skullduggery, because I remember thinking then what an absurd word choice it was

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ReiRei89
09/18/24 11:33:22 AM
#68:


We're getting 3 rustbelt State polls from a high quality pollster today.

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Irony
09/18/24 11:38:27 AM
#69:


There's no such thing as a high quality pollster except Akinator

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Kradek
09/18/24 3:25:15 PM
#70:


ReiRei89 posted...
We're getting 3 rustbelt State polls from a high quality pollster today.

Was hearing someone go over this just now. Of the 4 issues she's ahead on the 2 you expect and is equal to Trump on immigration and the economy, so she's cutting into the only 2 issues he's expecting to win him the election.

He also went over Financial Times showing a different poll showing an increase in lead on the economy from 42/41 last month to 44/42 this month.

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LightSnake
09/18/24 4:09:56 PM
#71:


Kradek posted...
Was hearing someone go over this just now. Of the 4 issues she's ahead on the 2 you expect and is equal to Trump on immigration and the economy, so she's cutting into the only 2 issues he's expecting to win him the election.

He also went over Financial Times showing a different poll showing an increase in lead on the economy from 42/41 last month to 44/42 this month.

Kradek posted...
Was hearing someone go over this just now. Of the 4 issues she's ahead on the 2 you expect and is equal to Trump on immigration and the economy, so she's cutting into the only 2 issues he's expecting to win him the election.

He also went over Financial Times showing a different poll showing an increase in lead on the economy from 42/41 last month to 44/42 this month.

Kamala being equal to Trump on immigration and the economy should be a "break glass" level moment of fucking panic for Republicans.

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BunkerBoy
09/18/24 4:18:00 PM
#72:


ReiRei89 posted...
We're getting 3 rustbelt State polls from a high quality pollster today.
Are these out yet?
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KobeSystem
09/18/24 4:22:24 PM
#73:


I know we dont matter but I can wait to see how bad Trump gets dunked here in Cali

Viva la Kamala

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sfcalimari
09/18/24 4:28:00 PM
#74:


GrandConjuraton posted...
Trump is down in the polls. Here's how this is bad for Kamala:

Good news for McCain!

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ReiRei89
09/18/24 4:58:22 PM
#75:


BunkerBoy posted...
Are these out yet?
Yeah, antifar posted a thread for them. Harris is up in all 3 States plus we got a poll from Trump's own pollster showing Harris up in WI.

And if I'm not mistaken we are due another high quality PA poll this week as well.

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kaiolino
09/18/24 5:01:22 PM
#76:


BunkerBoy posted...
Are these out yet?

If theyre from Quinnipiac, then yes.

https://twitter.com/meridithmcgraw/status/1836444633695686693

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Kradek
09/18/24 5:53:20 PM
#77:


LightSnake posted...
Kamala being equal to Trump on immigration and the economy should be a "break glass" level moment of fucking panic for Republicans.

Oh it is, there's just not much they can do about it. Tons of reports of Republicans panicking over various issues, Trump's behavior, and what he/Vance are choosing to focus on. Luckily for us, Trump is incapable of listening to logic and cohesive strategy. He's going to do whatever he wants to do and that's why he's still spreading the hatred against Haitians in Springfield, even after Vance literally admitted he just makes up stories.

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luigi33
09/18/24 5:55:26 PM
#78:


No way Michigan is +5 and WIsconsin is only +1. If Michigan goes Blue Wisconsin certainly will by even more than Michigan.

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divot1338
09/18/24 6:00:09 PM
#79:


kaiolino posted...
If theyre from Quinnipiac, then yes.

https://twitter.com/meridithmcgraw/status/1836444633695686693
Right now I can literally feel Democrats thinking cool, I dont need to vote.

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Kradek
09/18/24 6:10:26 PM
#80:


divot1338 posted...
Right now I can literally feel Democrats thinking cool, I dont need to vote.

Eh, I think as long as Trump and Trumpism has a stranglehold on the GOP I don't think that will be a thing after 2016. And even 2020 given how Trump contested the election and spread the big lie because of how it close it was. The only way we'll actually be able to fully secure this election is to beat him to such a degree nobody can contest it.

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Heineken14
09/18/24 6:17:55 PM
#81:


Charismic_Zach_Gowen posted...
It's not just greed. It's narcissism on Nate. His descent to MAGA puppet began in 2020 when he started stepping out of his lane and started trying to use his methodology to attack COVID restrictions and other related matters that he had no fucking clue about. When people told him to shut the fuck up, he became more and more enraged and susceptible to "trolling the libs".

It's so weird to see shit we've seen on CE and 261 - the "I'm a left winger, but you guys just made fun of me 1 to many times for spouting right wing things that I have no choice but to not become a right winger" - happen in real life. lol

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ReiRei89
09/18/24 6:48:09 PM
#82:


Marist is releasing Blue Wall polls in a couple hours.

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Diceheist
09/18/24 6:56:31 PM
#83:


divot1338 posted...

Right now I can literally feel Democrats thinking cool, I dont need to vote.

I don't know why people keep saying that when they voted heavily in 2018, 2020, and 2022, and the only reason they weren't going to in 2024 was because of Biden who's since been removed from play.
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divot1338
09/18/24 6:57:50 PM
#84:


Diceheist posted...
I don't know why people keep saying that when they voted heavily in 2018, 2020, and 2022, and the only reason they weren't going to in 2024 was because of Biden who's since been removed from play.
Because I wasnt born yesterday.

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LightSnake
09/18/24 6:59:08 PM
#85:


I don't see how folks look at the last few years and not see that being ahead motivates Dems more than doomerism.

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Humble_Novice
09/18/24 7:00:13 PM
#86:


I recently donated to PA Dems again because they're going to need all the help they can get. Feel free to do likewise: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/padems-mobilize
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ClayGuida
09/18/24 7:00:22 PM
#87:


luigi33 posted...
No way Michigan is +5 and WIsconsin is only +1. If Michigan goes Blue Wisconsin certainly will by even more than Michigan.
I've been saying this about Pennsylvania. For whatever reason all these shows have trump like up 3 in Penn but down 2 to 3 in Wisconsin and Michigan.

I'm not saying it's a guarantee all 3 go one way or the other, but I don't think there will be a 5 point gape between the states.

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Humble_Novice
09/18/24 10:51:00 PM
#88:


ReiRei89 posted...
Marist is releasing Blue Wall polls in a couple hours.
Yeah, and MAGA cultists are so pissed over the Suffolk poll that they've ganged up and taunted the analyst guy who knows more about PA from the inside out: https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1836547308214731154
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ReiRei89
09/18/24 11:00:20 PM
#89:


Humble_Novice posted...
Yeah, and MAGA cultists are so pissed over the Suffolk poll that they've ganged up and taunted the analyst guy who knows more about PA from the inside out: https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1836547308214731154
Those comments are cancer. I fucking hate how Musk turned twitter into a hellhole.

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jefffan
09/19/24 12:03:12 AM
#90:


Tracking topic since it's midnight lol

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jefffan
09/19/24 12:07:37 AM
#91:


Oh it looks like even Fox News has 50/48 Harris nationally.

I'm sure Trump won't toilet dial them in the morning about that lmao.

On the negative side Trump is 47/44 vs Harris in GA according to the AJC which is not good. However both being below 50% means still a tossup.

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ReiRei89
09/19/24 12:11:32 AM
#92:


Marist Polls are out

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4887548-harris-trump-michigan-wisconsin-pennsylvania/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Michigan:
Harris 52 Trump 47

Wisconsin:
Harris 50 Trump 49

Pennsylvania:
Harris 49 Trump 49

So more raging from Trump and the results are about what I expect tbh. WI and PA are going to be close while MI I see Harris winning by the most of the rustbelt battleground States.

Also we're apparently getting another high quality PA poll sometime tomorrow morning.

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Humble_Novice
09/19/24 12:16:05 AM
#93:


ReiRei89 posted...
Marist Polls are out

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4887548-harris-trump-michigan-wisconsin-pennsylvania/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Michigan:
Harris 52 Trump 47

Wisconsin:
Harris 50 Trump 49

Pennsylvania:
Harris 49 Trump 49

So more raging from Trump and the results are about what I expect tbh. WI and PA are going to be close while MI I see Harris winning by the most of the rustbelt battleground States.

Also we're apparently getting another high quality PA poll sometime tomorrow morning.
Unlike most people, I see no reason to freak out over this. We knew this race was going to be very close, so Kamala and the Democrats definitely have to pull out all the stops to ensure that they win.
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Humble_Novice
09/19/24 12:18:12 AM
#94:


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ReiRei89
09/19/24 12:22:26 AM
#95:


Humble_Novice posted...
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/0/03ac874f.png
They're good polls for Kamala. Remember, pollsters changed their methodology after 2022 and now account for a more Republican heavy voting base. So polls that show Kamala up are good. A tie is even good since ultimately a razor thin election is going to be decided by one's ground game where Kamala has the advantage.

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Kradek
09/19/24 12:30:37 AM
#96:


ReiRei89 posted...
Those comments are cancer. I fucking hate how Musk turned twitter into a hellhole.

It's literally the reason he bought it, which you probably already know, just saying, FUCK MUSK.

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jefffan
09/19/24 12:34:26 AM
#97:


There were quite a few Battleground senate polls which showed the D far ahead of the Republican Challenger.

Casey was +9 in PA for example for Quinnipiac. Obviously different candidates, but I can't see a world in which D Senator would win a race that the D President also wouldn't be favored in. Not by 9 of course, but still the favorite.

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Kradek
09/19/24 12:36:47 AM
#98:


jefffan posted...
There were quite a few Battleground senate polls which showed the D far ahead of the Republican Challenger.

Casey was +9 in PA for example for Quinnipiac. Obviously different candidates, but I can't see a world in which D Senator would win a race that the D President also wouldn't be favored in. Not by 9 of course, but still the favorite.

I could see it under Biden as that trend was distressingly increasing, however not under Harris.

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GrandConjuraton
09/19/24 12:47:34 AM
#99:


It's Kamover

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Humble_Novice
09/19/24 1:09:15 AM
#100:


ReiRei89 posted...
They're good polls for Kamala. Remember, pollsters changed their methodology after 2022 and now account for a more Republican heavy voting base. So polls that show Kamala up are good. A tie is even good since ultimately a razor thin election is going to be decided by one's ground game where Kamala has the advantage.
True. The more her ground game grows, the better her chances will be. Having been recently text banking for Democrats, I'm keenly aware that there's going to be another rally in Pennsylvania within the next few days.
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