Board 8 > Toy Story Mafia Topic 2 - On the Conveyor Belt

(+) Yeah! (+)

htaeD posted...

Not sure what you are asking here.
Not sure if it makes it worse or better either. Makes it clear that she's doing it on purpose at least.

yes, on purpose.

What do you make of that, specifically.

I'd also think Lea would at least show love to the Claw.

Forceful_Dragon posted...

No. We have less scum to potentially lynch today than we did before the game began, full stop

and when in any situation has less scum than town been a problem with lynching anyone? If there were ever a more then 50% chance to hit scum out of the pool of players, I got bad news for ya, the game would already be over.

Obellisk posted...

yes, on purpose.

What do you make of that, specifically.

My first thought is that she has nothing to fear and dared us to lynch her. Which does not strike me as a useful scum tactic.
My second thought was that maybe scumLea is throwing in the towel due to IGCD dying, but quitting feels out of character for her.

Like I said its reverse psychology-ing me into thinking Lea is townier. Tho not much.

Forceful_Dragon posted...

Then vote me. What a weak thing to say and not even cast a vote.

Is what I said wrong? No. We have less scum to potentially lynch today than we did before the game began, full stop. If you lynch me that chance is reduced to 0% because I am town. All you can do today is force claims out which is something scum WANTS now that their godfather is dead.

And yeah, there is a chance that scum could be lynched today, big fucking deal. It's a LOW chance and we can start pursuing lynches more aggressively tomorrow. That doesn't mean we can't still be sus of people today, just that I believe we should NL regardless of the sus because sus is often wrong and lynching or outing town power should absolutely be avoided. Last thing we need is for another power to claim for no reason.

scum really doesnt want to lose two today huh

GUYS!!!! Let's let scum kill a random town so that we have a better chance at killing Scum day 2!!!

get the fuck out of here with that garbage.

You just took the lead, top of the 9th. Up by 1 run, no outs. do you forfeit the rest of the inning and let the home team take their at bats? (I hate baseball but this seemed like an appropriate analogy)

htaeD posted...

My first thought is that she has nothing to fear and dared us to lynch her. Which does not strike me as a useful scum tactic.
My second thought was that maybe scumLea is throwing in the towel due to IGCD dying, but quitting feels out of character for her.

Like I said its reverse psychology-ing me into thinking Lea is townier. Tho not much.

I agree with every word youve said.

In all seriousness I don't know if FD is scum or just spineless nut No Lynching because there are less scum than before is wild

Obellisk posted...

by all means, ho back and reread the first 4 pages of ulti posts and show me which one says to you "I'm town power and hiding it"

ctes is right its very obvious to me too

scum or town power thats the list of possibilities for ulti

Forceful_Dragon posted...

All you can do today is force claims out which is something scum WANTS now that their godfather is dead.

And yeah, there is a chance that scum could be lynched today, big fucking deal. It's a LOW chance and we can start pursuing lynches more aggressively tomorrow. That doesn't mean we can't still be sus of people today, just that I believe we should NL regardless of the sus because sus is often wrong and lynching or outing town power should absolutely be avoided. Last thing we need is for another power to claim for no reason.

"They hated FD because he told them the truth."

Obellisk posted...

and when in any situation has less scum than town been a problem with lynching anyone? If there were ever a more then 50% chance to hit scum out of the pool of players, I got bad news for ya, the game would already be over.

If we assume 4/15 (which isn't guaranteed) then 21.43% is less than 26.67%. Almost 20% less in fact. And sure hitting scum is always possible, but day 1 has always been a crap shoot, so if there was ever a time to decide NOT to roll the dice, this is it. A day where a scum has already been killed day 1.

You don't have to agree (obviously), but me going with NL doesn't make me scum, and in fact I am not.

But if you want to make ME the mislynch then go ahead and try it, I don't have the ability to prevent it from happening. Just be prepared for snark later.

My "trace Lea suspicion" scumteam has Ctes Death Sbell on it.

I feel like at least two out of three of those are scum. Leaning Ctes + Death as scum. Death was showing suspicion of Ctes a bit then pivoted hard from it.

Avoidance of mzero in favor of Lea and then red is noted. The obvious conclusion is mzero is scum but mzero being an easier mislynch later is also possible.

Forceful_Dragon posted...

Just be prepared for snark later.

good sir, I am always prepared for snark.

Lopen, I'd be insulted if I wasn't on an early day one scum team build.

Obellisk posted...

I agree with every word youve said.

Good to know I am not alone.
Also questions like those reminds me of townsbells from the past, which is also good to know.

Obellisk posted...

and when in any situation has less scum than town been a problem with lynching anyone? If there were ever a more then 50% chance to hit scum out of the pool of players, I got bad news for ya, the game would already be over.

There's nuance to this. Stop with the ignorant blanket statements.

No Lynch on any future day is dumb because we have information from flips. This D1 is no different from any other D1 in that we've got jack shit to go off of and any lynch that happens will be sheer luck more often than not.

On future days, we have more information to mitigate our worsened odds of finding scum. Today, we have extremely low odds of hitting scum, and we have absolutely zero info besides "Corrik shot IGCD" and the latter's flip to go off, which at best just tells us that Corrik is town and nothing else.

Suppose Lea is Cop. Then this day ends with either her getting lynched or her claiming. And if she lives and scum has a full-time roleblocker, Lea becomes completely useless.

Whereas if we just NL without any extra buzz, Cop Lea can safely get a scan.

Obellisk posted...

Lea knowing she's the topic of inactivity and strange posting style to only walk back in with a "C U D 2" makes it worse?

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/b/baf8421a.jpg

i should have never deleted Snapchat this looks so bad drawing in the photos app

Obellisk posted...

by all means, ho back and reread the first 4 pages of ulti posts and show me which one says to you "I'm town power and hiding it"

Gonna save that for later as well but I swear he flatout said something about having something to control things.

I'd argue my suspicion of Lopen is in limbo, Lopen.

He has not erased it.

Obellisk posted...

Lopen, I'd be insulted if I wasn't on an early day one scum team build.

You have been more forward than the others to your credit. I wouldn't lynch you today.

Ctes I would
Death I would
Kirby I actually would consider because "avoidance of mzero is noted"

htaeD posted...

My second thought was that maybe scumLea is throwing in the towel due to IGCD dying, but quitting feels out of character for her.

Nah this is never it. If she is scum she is just doubling down and not bowing to the pressure.

Kirby321 posted...

Suppose Lea is Cop. Then this day ends with either her getting lynched or her claiming. And if she lives and scum has a full-time roleblocker, Lea becomes completely useless.

Whereas if we just NL without any extra buzz, Cop Lea can safely get a scan.

If Lea were town cop then this game has bigger issues at this point.

I don't think that example helps your case.

ItzKnightz posted...

Kirby has been nothing but nice this entire game, Ulti can vouch for him. Point is that he has not gone after someone at all this game.

Lmfao when he uses what should be scum reasoning to call someone town.

also while Im not fully off the train I am at the moment satisfied with Lopens eventual response last night and him going after ctes this morning

let cooler heads prevail, etc etc

#Unvote

not eventual as it took a long time but eventual as in where it landed at the end

Kirby321 posted...

There's nuance to this. Stop with the ignorant blanket statements.

No Lynch on any future day is dumb because we have information from flips. This D1 is no different from any other D1 in that we've got jack shit to go off of and any lynch that happens will be sheer luck more often than not.

On future days, we have more information to mitigate our worsened odds of finding scum. Today, we have extremely low odds of hitting scum, and we have absolutely zero info besides "Corrik shot IGCD" and the latter's flip to go off, which at best just tells us that Corrik is town and nothing else.

Suppose Lea is Cop. Then this day ends with either her getting lynched or her claiming. And if she lives and scum has a full-time roleblocker, Lea becomes completely useless.

Whereas if we just NL without any extra buzz, Cop Lea can safely get a scan.

Exactly, and not only that, but if she scans someone innocent then that creates a 1 in whatever chance that she actually prevents a mislynch on day 2 straight away by happening to have information on an innocent person who starts to get sus.

But hey, you guys do the regular thing and apply pressure on a bunch of different people today and force claims and switch pressure and force more claims and then be surprised pikachu face when multiple important town roles get outed, all to chase the low% chance of the day 1 scum lynch.

Obellisk posted...

If Lea were town cop then this game has bigger issues at this point.

I don't think that example helps your case.

Swap Lea out with your favorite lynch candidate and the point is the same: forcing claims right now when we could just walk away with dead scum in place of our lynch vote could have disastrous consequences.

changmas posted...

let cooler heads prevail, etc etc

You've been off my lynch list for a while now so welcome to actually playing mafia cohesively, a glorious era awaits us

Kirby321 posted...

There's nuance to this. Stop with the ignorant blanket statements.

No Lynch on any future day is dumb because we have information from flips. This D1 is no different from any other D1 in that we've got jack shit to go off of and any lynch that happens will be sheer luck more often than not.

On future days, we have more information to mitigate our worsened odds of finding scum. Today, we have extremely low odds of hitting scum, and we have absolutely zero info besides "Corrik shot IGCD" and the latter's flip to go off, which at best just tells us that Corrik is town and nothing else.

Suppose Lea is Cop. Then this day ends with either her getting lynched or her claiming. And if she lives and scum has a full-time roleblocker, Lea becomes completely useless.

Whereas if we just NL without any extra buzz, Cop Lea can safely get a scan.

I feel like we do pretty well on Day 1 in general and in fact blow it later on more often than not

Forceful_Dragon posted...

Exactly, and not only that, but if she scans someone innocent then that creates a 1 in whatever chance that she actually prevents a mislynch on day 2 straight away by happening to have information on an innocent person who starts to get sus.

But hey, you guys do the regular thing and apply pressure on a bunch of different people today and force claims and switch pressure and force more claims and then be surprised pikachu face when multiple important town roles get outed, all to chase the low% chance of the day 1 scum lynch.

We shouldn't lynch scum tomorrow either then either since the %s are low! Wahhh.

Someone explain to me how the %a are lower now than a normal day 1. Seriously.

Let's say it was 4/15. Though I maintain 5/15 remains possible with you know the INFO we have from the scum role message.

But let's say 4/15.

27% chance of hitting scum. He wouldn't have been on board with NL then.

But now we have a dead scum. And we know Corrik and itz are town.

So now it's 3/12. 25%

What is really the statistical difference here. 1.67%?

We are going to entirely change our playstyles over a ducking 1.67% difference in odds.

And you can increase that percentage more by pressuring people and getting info to narrow it down further to even higher percentages. Maybe play mafia to find scum and increase the odds instead of acting like you rng roll your lynches.

We know multiple things. A rolecop existed for scum and it was a doubled role. Thus, likely not low power game. Godfather so cop is likely for town. No claimed miller.

Scum can't use regular kills on odd nights.

We have a lot of info to pressure people going forward. Not withstanding we have a host confirmed gig. And a relatively confirmed inventor claim.

You have the ability to force claims and start figuring out what fits and doesn't.

Oh and my odds neglect that you yourself should know you aren't scum.

So the 4/15 should be 4/14 28.6% chance and 3/11 27.3% chance. So 1.3% difference. Even less. Like give me a tucking break

Put your faith in town power to assist inadvertently exposed town power.

But to let scum off the hook cause we already got one dead 1 hour into day one is just an odd way to approach the game, as a member of town.

Was Kirby in the game where mzero dayvigged me (I was scum)?

MZero posted...

I feel like we do pretty well on Day 1 in general and in fact blow it later on more often than not

CYOF Mafia - Town Death was lynched D1
Valentine's Day Mafia - Scum Peaf got himself killed
Simpsons Mafia - Scum Ctes was lynched
Holiday Mafia - Town FD was lynched
Bloodborne Mafia - Scum JC was lynched
Dead by Daylight Mafia - Town Ulti was lynched
Blade Mafia - Town Sultan was lynched
GameFAQs Mafia - Scum Kirby was lynched
Super Smash Bros. Mafia - Town UnderUrMattress was lynched
Console Mafia - Town BCT was lynched

4/10 games where scum was lynched D1. Admittedly better odds than I expected, but still not high enough for me to believe we aren't gonna mislynch Cop or Doctor today.

And of those 10 games, town only won three: Simpsons, Holiday, and GameFAQs. Scum won all other seven games.

B8 town is, quite frankly, not good most of the time. Majority of the time, we rely on our power roles making smart plays in order to win, rarely by actual deduction skills. Thus, No Lynching to keep our power roles hidden is the right play to make here, especially when we've already got a dead scum.

the more i look at the shape of the game the more corrik looks right about scum in the NL voters

another option is Ben, maybe? Ill need to go back tonight pre-deadline because maybe Im self-centered but i primarily just remember him talking about 2X scum team theory and then mostly just commenting on stuff Im saying. I think Kirby liked Bens first post off the bat but I cant remember if Kirbys track record on Ben is perfect tbh

id like a scan on ulti ideally tonight but beggars cant be choosers

Kirby321 posted...

CYOF Mafia - Town Death was lynched D1
Valentine's Day Mafia - Scum Peaf got himself killed
Simpsons Mafia - Scum Ctes was lynched
Holiday Mafia - Town FD was lynched
Bloodborne Mafia - Scum JC was lynched
Dead by Daylight Mafia - Town Ulti was lynched
Blade Mafia - Town Sultan was lynched
GameFAQs Mafia - Scum Kirby was lynched
Super Smash Bros. Mafia - Town UnderUrMattress was lynched
Console Mafia - Town BCT was lynched

4/10 games where scum was lynched D1. Admittedly better odds than I expected, but still not high enough for me to believe we aren't gonna mislynch Cop or Doctor today.

And of those 10 games, town only won three: Simpsons, Holiday, and GameFAQs. Scum won all other seven games.

B8 town is, quite frankly, not good most of the time. Majority of the time, we rely on our power roles making smart plays in order to win, rarely by actual deduction skills. Thus, No Lynching to keep our power roles hidden is the right play to make here, especially when we've already got a dead scum.

most games have 25-33% scum. we hit 40% of the time, ergo it is better to lynch. Thats MATH!

thank you for coming to my seminar.

Obellisk posted...

Was Kirby in the game where mzero dayvigged me (I was scum)?

I don't believe I was, no.

I remember MZero fumbling a Desperado shot that ended day in one of Sultan's games, I think, but not one where he dayvigged Scumbell

I know I'm not scum, but I don't know that i won't be lynched. Why would I remove myself from the potential lynch pool? I know my PERSONAL vote wont go on me, but that doesn't mean shit if 8 others do.

And yes, our chance of successfully lynching scum tomorrow is also low because there are always less scum than town, but no one is saying to NL day 2 so why are you bringing it up?

Day 2 is not Day 1.

changmas posted...

I think Kirby liked Bens first post off the bat but I cant remember if Kirbys track record on Ben is perfect tbh

I think the only time I've been wrong on Ben so far was during Tekken Mafia when I thought he was on the other scum team.

But Ben also super outplayed me there because he was deliberately acting scummy, and I was ignoring it and calling him town, which he then used to figure out I was scum lol

how do you feel about Ben today after his first post?

changmas posted...

most games have 25-33% scum. we hit 40% of the time, ergo it is better to lynch. Thats MATH!

thank you for coming to my seminar.

What are the odds of hitting two scum in the same day?

Those 40% odds are for killing one scum as the sole lynch/kill of the first day phase. We've already got our one kill today, so what are the odds we do it again?

changmas posted...

how do you feel about Ben today after his first post?

I don't think my opinion has changed. Ben feels like strong town, and I said that before already. Gives me Star Trek Mafia vibes, if any of you guys remember that game.

now whenever Ben gets here Id like his thoughts on Kirby

Kirby321 posted...

What are the odds of hitting two scum in the same day?

Those 40% odds are for killing one scum as the sole lynch/kill of the first day phase. We've already got our one kill today, so what are the odds we do it again?

in theory better than they were before, given that you can townclear Corrik, Knightz, and potentially me (pending your thoughts on scum theatre) off of IGCD flip.

Forceful_Dragon posted...

I know I'm not scum, but I don't know that i won't be lynched. Why would I remove myself from the potential lynch pool? I know my PERSONAL vote wont go on me, but that doesn't mean shit if 8 others do.

And yes, our chance of successfully lynching scum tomorrow is also low because there are always less scum than town, but no one is saying to NL day 2 so why are you bringing it up?

Day 2 is not Day 1.

This is day 2. We lynched scum day 1 and everyone forgot to put their actions in at night. Okay welcome to day 2. Now find scum or die.

Corrik7 posted...

This is day 2. We lynched scum day 1 and everyone forgot to put their actions in at night. Okay welcome to day 2. Now find scum or die.

This is an excellent way yo approach yhe next 10ish hours.

It's day 2 folks.

Night one the Claw stopped all actions, so we lost all info gaining and gained no deaths.

Onto day 2.

I could really use a FD style spreadsheet of those in favor of NL and those against it.

I mean, look, it's obvious neither FD nor I will convince a town majority to No Lynch, and none of you guys are gonna convince us to move off of No Lynch, either.

But there's still no clear pressure of a lynch on anybody right now. Use your damn votes, you cowards.

htaeD posted...

I could really use a FD style spreadsheet of those in favor of NL and those against it.

In favor of it: Kirby and FD

Voted for it but didn't elaborate: Chang, Lea, Knightz

Neutral: Ctes (I think)

Against it: literally everybody else

I think Ctes at least sounded like he was against it on day1