Current Events > MLB Playoff topic

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DeathVelvien
10/09/23 9:24:55 PM
#151:


Good start

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Jeff_AKA_Snoopy
10/09/23 9:25:02 PM
#152:


Great game, wow

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DoctorPiranha3
10/09/23 9:25:43 PM
#153:


DeathVelvien posted...
Good start
Everyone who isn't a Dodgers, Braves, or Phillies fan is rooting for the Dbacks in the NL
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TroutPaste
10/09/23 9:27:25 PM
#154:


DoctorPiranha3 posted...
Everyone who isn't a Dodgers, Braves, or Phillies fan is rooting for the Dbacks in the NL

@zithers

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Zithers
10/09/23 9:31:13 PM
#155:


TroutPaste posted...
@zithers

as a neutral fan i am rooting braves/phillies to win pennant

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SayHeyyShohei
10/09/23 9:34:05 PM
#156:


Zithers posted...
lol

great ending play btw

If third time through the order was anything worth worrying about, then bullpens wouldn't blow games as often through the first time through the order.

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Zithers
10/09/23 11:06:59 PM
#157:


SayHeyyShohei posted...
If third time through the order was anything worth worrying about, then bullpens wouldn't blow games as often through the first time through the order.

every pitcher to every play the game is significantly worse the third time through the order. that is why every single team has pulled their SP in the 4th or 5th inning this postseason.

maybe look up how probabilities work btw

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Jeff_AKA_Snoopy
10/10/23 12:36:47 AM
#158:


Loldgers

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SayHeyyShohei
10/10/23 5:06:30 AM
#159:


Zithers posted...
every pitcher to every play the game is significantly worse the third time through the order. that is why every single team has pulled their SP in the 4th or 5th inning this postseason.

maybe look up how probabilities work btw

Then why do bullpens blow the lead anyway when they pull the pitcher after giving up one hit?

The probabilities are not reflective of the pitcher, they are reflective of the offense.

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Jeff_AKA_Snoopy
10/10/23 2:17:04 PM
#160:


Analytics finds on average that your SP should go only twice through the order. The numbers don't lie. It's just that with so many teams doing it now you don't have much data to the opposite in the last like 5 years. So they are using data from like 2000-2015 for a lot of their analytics.

Jose Berrios was pitching probably the best game of the season G2 versus the Twins and got pulled because analytics said that was, purely based on numbers, the best thing to do on average.

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Zithers
10/10/23 3:00:42 PM
#161:


SayHeyyShohei posted...
Then why do bullpens blow the lead anyway when they pull the pitcher after giving up one hit?

The probabilities are not reflective of the pitcher, they are reflective of the offense.

why do starting pitchers allow runs on their first time through the order even though that is statistically when they are the best? because of probabilities. there is never a 0% chance of something happening in a baseball game.

if you have a SP with a 3.20 fip who gets through 18 batters in 70 pitches, but your top two rested relievers have a <3.20 fip, you should put one of them in. the probabilities suggest that on a third time through the order, the SP will have worse than his average 3.2 fip regardless of how he's done in the start so far. meanwhile the RPs will likely pitch better than their 3.2 fip on a first time through the order. does that mean the RPs will 100% do better? NO!!!!!! because that isnt how probabilities work. but their probability of succeeding is higher than the SPs.

simple math bro

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kelemvor
10/10/23 3:49:09 PM
#162:


Zithers posted...
why do starting pitchers allow runs on their first time through the order even though that is statistically when they are the best? because of probabilities. there is never a 0% chance of something happening in a baseball game.

if you have a SP with a 3.20 fip who gets through 18 batters in 70 pitches, but your top two rested relievers have a <3.20 fip, you should put one of them in. the probabilities suggest that on a third time through the order, the SP will have worse than his average 3.2 fip regardless of how he's done in the start so far. meanwhile the RPs will likely pitch better than their 3.2 fip on a first time through the order. does that mean the RPs will 100% do better? NO!!!!!! because that isnt how probabilities work. but their probability of succeeding is higher than the SPs.

simple math bro

I agree with all of this. It makes sense from a numbers perspective. However, there is something to the "eye test" and managers/coaches trusting "their gut" when it comes to what pitcher gets what matchups. I don't know if there is ever a way to quantify that. It's like when some hitters have reverse splits. Do you bring in a reliever that goes with what the statistics say or go on the historical trend?
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Zithers
10/10/23 4:02:41 PM
#163:


kelemvor posted...
I agree with all of this. It makes sense from a numbers perspective. However, there is something to the "eye test" and managers/coaches trusting "their gut" when it comes to what pitcher gets what matchups. I don't know if there is ever a way to quantify that. It's like when some hitters have reverse splits. Do you bring in a reliever that goes with what the statistics say or go on the historical trend?

i think there are a lot of other factors that play into it that we just don't know unless youre in the dugout or refreshing on savant. pitch mix vs the opposing batters swing path, splits, velo/spin dropping too much, exit velocities trending up, bullpen rest, who exactly is rested, who is or isnt a good matchp in the pen, when the next day off is, etc.

but in a vacuum you go to the pen every time. on top of that, the phillies do have a rested bullpen. and not only that, their bullpen is extremely good. it's fine. what the phillies really need to do is score more than 3 runs to beat the braves since they have one of the best lineups ever.

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Bigbot84
10/10/23 7:03:14 PM
#164:


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SayHeyyShohei
10/10/23 7:53:15 PM
#165:


None of what anyone said has disproved the notion that the reason third time through the order hurts the pitcher more is because statistically the offense will come around more by the third time they come up, regardless of pitcher. You can't use data to prove or disprove a negative, which would be whether or not leaving a starter in would be statistically more significant in losing than going to the bullpen. It's confirmation bias because of a false interpretation of the data, which is that going to the bullpen is the answer despite the starter being better/pitching better.

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DoctorPiranha3
10/10/23 8:47:22 PM
#166:


We're really close to getting an all Texas ALCS.
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Calwings
10/10/23 8:56:59 PM
#167:


I would be more than happy with the Rangers winning it all this year. They've never won the WS before, and I still feel a little bad about 2011. A little.

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DoctorPiranha3
10/10/23 9:00:48 PM
#168:


Calwings posted...
I would be more than happy with the Rangers winning it all this year. They've never won the WS before, and I still feel a little bad about 2011. A little.
As a Rangers fan, 2011 still sucks. Not sure why this franchise is so cursed but it is what it is. Winning it this year, when no one expected them to even really be that good, would go a long way.
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Zithers
10/10/23 10:17:13 PM
#169:


SayHeyyShohei posted...
None of what anyone said has disproved the notion that the reason third time through the order hurts the pitcher more is because statistically the offense will come around more by the third time they come up, regardless of pitcher. You can't use data to prove or disprove a negative, which would be whether or not leaving a starter in would be statistically more significant in losing than going to the bullpen. It's confirmation bias because of a false interpretation of the data, which is that going to the bullpen is the answer despite the starter being better/pitching better.

if the offense comes around way more late in games... why do relievers historically have lower era's and fip's than starters? huh?

do you feel this way about hitters too? like you'd rather someone who is worse pinch hit cuz he's on a three game hot streak while the guy who is better has been cold the past three games?

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Fin_Dawg_004
10/11/23 12:59:58 AM
#170:


Rangers have swept the two best records in the AL

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Jeff_AKA_Snoopy
10/11/23 2:58:10 PM
#171:


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/6/3/4/AAABltAAE7GK.jpg
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El_Marsh
10/11/23 3:09:35 PM
#172:


^fucking beautiful

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TroutPaste
10/11/23 5:29:01 PM
#173:


Can the Diamondbacks clinch tonight?

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GeneralKenobi85
10/11/23 6:42:44 PM
#174:


I think at this point Astros probably win against the Twins. And I think Rangers will beat whichever team makes it toe ALCS.

As for the NL, it's hard to imagine the Dbacks beating either of the Phillies or Braves, but maybe they're just on a special run.

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[deleted]
10/11/23 9:01:41 PM
#190:


[deleted]
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Jeff_AKA_Snoopy
10/11/23 9:53:45 PM
#175:


Battle of Texas for ALCS.

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DeathVelvien
10/11/23 9:55:20 PM
#176:


TroutPaste posted...
Can the Diamondbacks clinch tonight?
Looking good so far, great inning here.

GeneralKenobi85 posted...
As for the NL, it's hard to imagine the Dbacks beating either of the Phillies or Braves
Same could have been said about them beating the Dodgers tbh, not that I'm remotely expecting it. Hell, wouldn't be surprised if we choke to LA here.

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Jeff_AKA_Snoopy
10/11/23 9:58:51 PM
#177:


Dodgers don't have amazing pitching this season.

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FlyEaglesFly24
10/11/23 10:04:35 PM
#178:


Apparently being the #1 seed is bad in baseball.

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CADE_FOSTER
10/11/23 10:38:07 PM
#179:


Rangers chanted we want Houston you know what that means
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DeathVelvien
10/11/23 10:46:23 PM
#180:


Annoying not to get a run there

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Calwings
10/11/23 11:01:36 PM
#181:


I'm starting to think that giving the top seeds 5 whole days off with nothing to do while the other teams are playing in the first round isn't actually a good thing.

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Bigbot84
10/11/23 11:03:41 PM
#182:


Doesn't seem to affect the Astros.
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Calwings
10/11/23 11:05:20 PM
#183:


Bigbot84 posted...
Doesn't seem to affect the Astros.

Yep, it does seem like the Houston Cheaters are the only team that are beating the rest and still playing well.

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Bigbot84
10/11/23 11:10:11 PM
#184:


Yep, they got all those cameras, trash cans, buzzers and Apple watches working overtime in all the other teams stadiums.
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Zithers
10/11/23 11:16:31 PM
#185:


i cant believe people are still whining about the astros

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Zikten
10/11/23 11:20:48 PM
#186:


as long as Astros lose, I don't give a fuck who wins
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Killmonger
10/11/23 11:21:37 PM
#187:


Dodgers making a comeback?

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Calwings
10/11/23 11:29:02 PM
#188:


Bigbot84 posted...
Yep, they got all those cameras, trash cans, buzzers and Apple watches working overtime in all the other teams stadiums.

Zithers posted...
i cant believe people are still whining about the astros

As long as there's a single member of the 2017-19 cheaters still on the team, I will continue to hate the Astros, continue to actively cheer against them, and continue to boycott every single one of their games. The fact that none of those players faced any consequences and the team got to keep that tainted championship is an injustice. Fuck the Astros organization and fuck whoever still cheers for them.

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Zikten
10/11/23 11:33:00 PM
#189:


It was a mistake to not punish the Astros . And that mistake will taint the MLB for all eternity
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Zithers
10/11/23 11:34:50 PM
#191:


Calwings posted...
waaaaaaah

ok

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CADE_FOSTER
10/11/23 11:37:32 PM
#192:


bunch of little girls whining about the astros still
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Bigbot84
10/11/23 11:53:19 PM
#193:


Calwings posted...
As long as there's a single member of the 2017-19 cheaters still on the team, I will continue to hate the Astros, continue to actively cheer against them, and continue to boycott every single one of their games. The fact that none of those players faced any consequences and the team got to keep that tainted championship is an injustice. Fuck the Astros organization and fuck whoever still cheers for them.
Continue to cope that your team isn't built to win like the Astros.
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Zikten
10/11/23 11:54:14 PM
#194:


Bigbot84 posted...
Continue to cope that your team isn't built to win like the Astros.
Astros didn't win. When you cheat, your win doesn't count
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Zithers
10/11/23 11:58:11 PM
#195:


Zikten posted...
Astros didn't win. When you cheat, your win doesn't count

they didnt cheat from 2018-present and still kept making the ALCS and did indeed win the title last year

cope

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Touch
10/11/23 11:59:27 PM
#196:


Lol doyers!!!!

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DeathVelvien
10/12/23 12:00:01 AM
#197:


Holy fuck we actually did it. Get absolutely fucked, Dodgers.

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Bigbot84
10/12/23 12:01:32 AM
#198:


How has Dave Roberts kept his job this whole time?
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Zithers
10/12/23 12:03:23 AM
#199:


Bigbot84 posted...
How has Dave Roberts kept his job this whole time?

how is it his fault that the dodgers expect him to run out clayton kershaw throwing 88mph heaters. or lance lynn being the big deadline trade to patch up their pitching depth. or mookie and freddie going 1-19 or w/e. players didnt play. FO made an obvious move towards slashing payroll to save up for ohtani. would be ridiculous for him (or kevin cash who is catching heat lately) to be fired

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Butterfiles
10/12/23 12:05:20 AM
#200:


Zithers posted...


Didn't read any of this bs but I agree Roberts is doing a great job as manager and should definitely keep his job!

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