Board 8 > If given the option, which recent US presidential election would you flip?

(+) Yeah! (+)

Centrists are insane

v_charon posted...

The problem with Bernie is that he's a virtual no sell to people who want to identify as undecided. His political stances and policies are too far left to make a pitch for, so outside of going back and having Biden run in 2016, Hillary has to be the only real option to defeat Trump. I feel like they didn't believe Trump could really win, and maybe if they had the power of foresight they'd have taken it more seriously and worked harder to win that election.

Bernies stances all poll extremely well with people who dont identify as political. Except for the completely brainpoisoned MAGA, working class voters who you might consider Republicans (but not proud ones) had extremely high favorability for Bernie.

Theres this really funny phenomenon where Dem centrists would tell you not voting for the Dem candidate was akin to voting for Trump, but ALSO that Bernie would losewith the unspoken admission that they wouldnt vote for him.

Dem centrists don't want to admit that they elected Trump.

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Bernies stances all poll extremely well with people who dont identify as political. Except for the completely brainpoisoned MAGA, working class voters who you might consider Republicans (but not proud ones) had extremely high favorability for Bernie.

Theres this really funny phenomenon where Dem centrists would tell you not voting for the Dem candidate was akin to voting for Trump, but ALSO that Bernie would losewith the unspoken admission that they wouldnt vote for him.

There's also the possibility that pragmatists like myself could say "If you don't vote for Hillary, you're effectively voting for Trump", would have gladly voted Bernie if he could manage to appeal to a majority of Democratic primary voters, and still think Bernie would have lost because enough of the Democratic base (who are NOT the ones shouting "blue no matter who!") just don't want to vote for someone far left, since our country is baseline conservative.

I'm just trying to picture someone a person who voted for Trump over Hillary going to vote for Bernie instead; it's a bit hard to believe that someone would swap votes and vote for someone way further to the left than the person they already apparently thought wasn't close enough to the center. Unless you really just believe Hillary loses because she's a woman, which I guess maybe someone like that exists? I again attribute it to people not knowing how bad Trump would actually be and not taking him seriously. I think if people who abstained from voting in 2016 had the foresight to know what would happen, they'd have voted for her.

The time for the political center is over, at least in terms of what that might have once meant. The Democratic Party is basically the center now. I much prefer further left than what the establishment offers, but I still feel like it's the only way to win elections in this country.

Lopen posted...

I think Bernie would have beaten Trump pretty soundly personally. Bernie doesn't have the "corrupt" feel Hillary did. Crazy yeah but so was Trump. He would have SFFed him in a weird way.

SFF sounds about right. The deciding factor in 2016 was massive GOP gains in the Rust Belt and rural Midwest. That happened because they felt ignored and wanted a crazy outsider to shake up Washington. The thing is that Sanders also had that energy. I doubt he would have done any better than Hillary in the popular vote, but the regional trends would have make him the favorite to win the Electoral College.

v_charon posted...

I'm just trying to picture someone a person who voted for Trump over Hillary going to vote for Bernie instead; it's a bit hard to believe that someone would swap votes and vote for someone way further to the left than the person they already apparently thought wasn't close enough to the center. Unless you really just believe Hillary loses because she's a woman, which I guess maybe someone like that exists? I again attribute it to people not knowing how bad Trump would actually be and not taking him seriously. I think if people who abstained from voting in 2016 had the foresight to know what would happen, they'd have voted for her.

The time for the political center is over, at least in terms of what that might have once meant. The Democratic Party is basically the center now. I much prefer further left than what the establishment offers, but I still feel like it's the only way to win elections in this country.

People aren't on a single line from left to right however much centrists may believe that. Hillary had lots of problems with corruption, lack of ideas about what she would change in office, scandals, and her directly insulting voters. She was the establishment candidate in a year in which voters wanted change.

v_charon posted...

I'm just trying to picture someone a person who voted for Trump over Hillary going to vote for Bernie instead; it's a bit hard to believe that someone would swap votes and vote for someone way further to the left than the person they already apparently thought wasn't close enough to the center. Unless you really just believe Hillary loses because she's a woman, which I guess maybe someone like that exists? I again attribute it to people not knowing how bad Trump would actually be and not taking him seriously. I think if people who abstained from voting in 2016 had the foresight to know what would happen, they'd have voted for her.

If you search things like BS, Berner or Bernout on political Twitter you can find a fun phenomenon where Democratic Centrists insist that Bernie is an evil man and his supporters are all actually Republicans.

Its based on the (astute) observation they made that Bernie had a working class base, but they were too up their own asses to understand why.

Bernies base was pretty well split between Im a leftist/socialist and this is the best shot for me to ever have a say and Im a blue collar worker and I have no reason to believe any politician except Bernie ACTUALLY cares about labor.

When Bernie lost, both times we saw parts of his base breaking away because they felt betrayed by the DNC, Bernie, or a combination of both. Some of them said fuck it, everything is hopeless so Im going to give up. Others said fuck it, the establishment is too strong, I will vote Trump because at least we know hell shake things up.

Anecdotally, a lot of people from both those breakaway groups are permanently lost Democratic votes.

The time for the political center is over, at least in terms of what that might have once meant. The Democratic Party is basically the center now. I much prefer further left than what the establishment offers, but I still feel like it's the only way to win elections in this country.

100% true, and basically for the reasons I outlined, imo.

Xeybozn posted...

SFF sounds about right. The deciding factor in 2016 was massive GOP gains in the Rust Belt and rural Midwest. That happened because they felt ignored and wanted a crazy outsider to shake up Washington. The thing is that Sanders also had that energy. I doubt he would have done any better than Hillary in the popular vote, but the regional trends would have make him the favorite to win the Electoral College.

Yeah. You put what I was getting at much better than I could there. I'm glad someone actually got what I was getting at there.

I don't think Trump's values specifically resonate with enough people to make a huge dent in the vote. MAGA Trumper types are a minority still as they were then, just loud. That's why Biden defeated him easily. Not because Biden is way stronger as a candidate than Hillary.

But stuff like "draining the swamp" and whatnot Bernie could carry that kinda rhetoric as Trump could but with more credibility so I would see him winning.

hillary was a historically weak candidate for many reasons both outside of her control and of her own making that nonetheless had a decent shot at winning because her opponent was a walking cartoon of a man who has the brain of a particularly deceitful gorilla.

through a combination of unforced campaign errors, a right wing media machine that has been denigrating her for 30 years, a level of conceit that bordered on egomaniacal on her part (how many variations of "it's her turn" did we hear in 08 and 16?), and some very unfortunately timed bad press, she managed to lose.

i was a big bernie supporter in 16 and 20, but i can't say whether he would have won. he certainly had less long-term baggage that hillary did, but it's hard to say for sure if that would have been enough to balance out the full blown red scare ad campaign the gop would have no doubt trotted out against him. i like to think he would have had a good shot, but it's literally impossible to say anything with confidence about 2016 election hypotheticals. it was a wild year.

all that said, i would change the result of nixon/mcgovern.

The absolutely wild part about Hillary/Trump is that discussions around it always have this implicit notion of 2016 being a crushing loss for Hillary.

Except it wasn't. She won the popular vote by several million. Our system is just so broken that it didn't matter.

Didn't Biden win the electoral college as badly as Hillary lost it?

In any case, I don't entirely understand why Hillary Clinton still seems to be some right-wing boogeyman (boogeywoman?). Even at worst there's no way she's so egregious compared to other politicians. Could just be people were sick of her. I actually do think Hillary's gender did destroy her chances, just in a more roundabout way. It's also why I think the only real chance Trump has of winning another election is if he runs against another white woman. A white man would just cut into Trump's key voting demographics the way Biden did, and a POC of either gender would soak up POC votes like no one's business the way Obama did.

Xeybozn posted...

I doubt he would have done any better than Hillary in the popular vote

Why? He would've won more of the working class, and still would've gotten all the people who just vote along party lines.

It was very shocking how many Democrats threatened to vote for Trump over Bernie just to get Hillary in, but you have to remember they are totally spineless and would absolutely have fallen in line behind Bernie once the order came in.

KamikazePotato posted...

Our system is just so broken that it didn't matter.

How many candidates who are "actually really strong despite having no idea know how our system works" do you think the Democrats should run in the future?

What's a good analogy to explain this to centrist gamers?

It's like Hillary is playing Overwatch and got the most kills but never pushed the payload

Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump couldn't be more different is my problem with all these notions. The only thread they'd have in common is "political outsider", but they are on totally opposite sides of that line. I don't feel enough people would have been swayed to vote for him for it to matter, if there was even a somewhat significant amount at all. To flip that election and have him as President would have only worked if it would have perhaps galvanized people who simply abstained from voting at all because they didn't care for Hillary and perhaps felt she was too far in the center and didn't care to make their voices heard at all. I would like to believe that not enough of those people existed though, because even if you felt that way about Hillary, it shouldn't come at the cost of stopping Trump. But maybe people didn't think he was that bad in 2016, I don't really know how anyone could have predicted the atrocious things that happened but I felt even back then it was pretty clear to see anyone but him was the answer.

Perhaps I'm biased because I'm someone who voted Gary Johnson over Hillary and Trump and would have voted Bernie if he got in (and gun to head, in the moment, would have voted Trump though with hindsight I would have voted Hillary) but I think "political outsider" is a lot more important than you think for what the appeal of Trump was to a lot of people.

If people were really voting for Trump's politics I think Biden wouldn't have thrashed him so hard.

v_charon posted...

The only thread they'd have in common is "political outsider"

Why is it so hard to accept that this is a core axis that people vote on? Especially Trump voters who if you bother to actually listen to (really hard for Hillary supporters, I know) will say this is exactly why they voted Trump

The main problem I have with the outsider argument isif your main goal was an outsider to overturn the system, why would you choose the outsider who was a 26 year Washington congressman/senator (from the same party as the outgoing president, who I would assume would be the inspiration behind wanting an outsider) over the legitimate non-politician who acted and behaved unlike most politicians?

For Bernie to beat Trump, he would need to pick up the ENTIRE blue wall that Hillary lost in 2016. He beat her in Wisconsin and Michigan, but he lost to her in Pennsylvania, and he NEEDS to win Pennsylvania to beat Trump. I just dont see him pulling it off, especially since he is more likely to depress the African American vote more than he could potentially make gains in the working class white vote.

Why would you choose the "outsider" who is a NYC elite who's been regularly partying and working with every president since HW?

I didn't vote in 2016 but I would have voted Bernie

foolm0r0n posted...

Why would you choose the "outsider" who is a NYC elite who's been regularly partying and working with every president since HW?

I mean why would you choose the 'outsider' who is an NYC elite who's been regularly partying and working with every president since HW?

Like if he gets labeled an outsider for simply NOT being Hillary Clinton, the whole 'outsider' term is completely meaningless.

Also hasn't Bernie been independent his whole career except for running for president as democrat?

Espeon posted...

The main problem I have with the outsider argument isif your main goal was an outsider to overturn the system, why would you choose the outsider who was a 26 year Washington congressman/senator (from the same party as the outgoing president, who I would assume would be the inspiration behind wanting an outsider) over the legitimate non-politician who acted and behaved unlike most politicians?

Is Bernie an insider? An "outsider" in political terms is someone who is promising to get inside and be a/make radical change. Do you see Bernie as a typical Democratic insider?

Espeon posted...

The main problem I have with the outsider argument isif your main goal was an outsider to overturn the system, why would you choose the outsider who was a 26 year Washington congressman/senator (from the same party as the outgoing president, who I would assume would be the inspiration behind wanting an outsider) over the legitimate non-politician who acted and behaved unlike most politicians?

For Bernie to beat Trump, he would need to pick up the ENTIRE blue wall that Hillary lost in 2016. He beat her in Wisconsin and Michigan, but he lost to her in Pennsylvania, and he NEEDS to win Pennsylvania to beat Trump. I just dont see him pulling it off, especially since he is more likely to depress the African American vote more than he could potentially make gains in the working class white vote.

Because Bernie has accomplished essentially nothing in the Senate because there are typically 99 senators who disagree with him about a great many things.

In what world does Bernie not do massively better with working class voters than Hillary? You can argue that Bernie would have been a bad president, and perhaps he loses some affluent voters to Trump that Hillary won, so victory isn't guaranteed, but he was definitely going to do way better with working class voters than she did.

All three of these people are the platonic ideal of insiders.

Espeon posted...

I just dont see him pulling it off, especially since he is more likely to depress the African American vote more than he could potentially make gains in the working class white vote.

I feel like I'm missing some context here, why would Bernie be likely to depress the African American vote?

I really like Bernie, but anecdotally I believe it and I thought I had seen past polling suggesting this to be the case too.

The problem with arguing clinton was historically weak and Sanders would have won where she lost is if she was so weak how did she beat him? He simply isnt as strong a candidate as youd like to think; like Frog in the character battle youre letting an overperformance vs Master Chief and personal fondness obscure reality.

The primary vote isn't the same as the election vote

Where do the cross party line people go
Where do the people who don't care enough to vote in primaries go

Hillary was stronger among hardcore dems but doesn't necessarily win

Eddv posted...

The problem with arguing clinton was historically weak and Sanders would have won where she lost is if she was so weak how did she beat him?

No one is arguing the DNC is weak, just their candidate

But also politics is literally the least transitive competition possible

foolm0r0n posted...

No one is arguing the DNC is weak

i might

foolm0r0n posted...

Especially Trump voters who if you bother to actually listen to (really hard for Hillary supporters, I know) will say this is exactly why they voted Trump

Despite your condescending comments, I unfortunately spend the majority of my life amongst Trump supporters, that are still Trump supporters to this very day. I was born in the deep south, and I still live here now. The majority, the large majority at that, of people I interact with are conservatives. I've never been one to let political affiliation dictate my friendships, and I'm usually fine with just steering clear of the subject but obviously it will come up especially in the age we live in. My parents all voted for Trump, and they're divorced so their spouses voted for him too. I'd say about 75% (and that's being kind because it's probably more) of my coworkers are conservatives. So much to your chagrin, I do have to listen to the reasons they would vote for him. Yes, I have heard "to shake things up in Washington" quite a bit, especially back during the election we're speaking about flipping in 2016.

With all that said, every single person I know that voted for Trump most certainly would not have voted for Bernie. Any time I mention Bernie Sanders, whom would be my choice any time he was running, I get the "Socialist Jew" comments from a lot of them. The thing is, of the many dozens of people I'm thinking about, every single one of them is not just a Trump voter, they're conservative. So when you're theorycrafting of how people who are Trump voters might swing to Bernie, it's hard for me to buy because I know like 50 people who certainly wouldn't. Obviously there are some people out there that might fit your scenario, but I don't think they represent the average Trump voter in the slightest way possible. While shaking up Washington and "not a politician" might be things they'll mention, it's far, far from all they mention. It's a hard take for me to buy when I come into contact with so many people who prove otherwise.

I agree with all of that of course. I'm in the purple part of the south, so I see the marginal voters. In general when we're talking about who would swing from Trump to Bernie, it's obviously about the marginal voters. South Carolina was never gonna vote for Bernie but North Carolina might have. Pennsylvania definitely would've.

Why would anyone focus on the evangelicals and nazis in this discussion and not the working class, the people who literally swung the election and decided who was president? It's so disingenuous.

It's like someone else mentioned - it's not even about winning more absolute votes, but about districts and electoral votes.

v_charon posted...

With all that said, every single person I know that voted for Trump most certainly would not have voted for Bernie. Any time I mention Bernie Sanders, whom would be my choice any time he was running, I get the "Socialist Jew" comments from a lot of them. The thing is, of the many dozens of people I'm thinking about, every single one of them is not just a Trump voter, they're conservative. So when you're theorycrafting of how people who are Trump voters might swing to Bernie, it's hard for me to buy because I know like 50 people who certainly wouldn't.

Like I said above, a lot of Bernie supporters turned away from him--and the Democratic Party--forever after the primaries. They'll call him a commie jew now because they're permanently brainpoisoned.

The 2016 primary did more damage than we could even imagine.

I remember posting in the Politics topic about how I had a paranoid fear in the back of my mind that if Bernie won the primary they'd intentionally cause him to lose to Trump so they could bury his movement, and at this point considering it was buried anyway.

I think there's an argument to be made that Bernie losing to Trump may have put us in a better position. Those people completely disillusioned by "DNC Corruption", real or not, may not have left forever.

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

I think there's an argument to be made that Bernie losing to Trump may have put us in a better position.

No way. If that happens, the Democratic Party as a whole runs to the right and is scared away from even talking about progressive policies for another like 25+ years like their PTSD over Reagan and (Bill) Clinton's Third Way.

Instead, we have a Democratic Party that is more progressive than it has ever been - even if for many it's not nearly enough (and that's fair! Gotta keep pushing them, this isn't a thing where you reach a finish line and the job is over) with voices like AOC.

Yeah thats true.

I know some Bernie supporters who arent MAGA, but theyre fuck the Democrats especially people now (the Tulsi stans <_<;;) and I just miss when they were normal.

Tulsi is the best but also not democrat

I'm just surprised such people exist. Most of my liberal friends don't abandon their ideals just because he lost. It's not what he'd want either, I'm pretty sure. Tulsi is just a republican that's too scared to say it; once you start using the word "woke" as a attack you're done.

v_charon posted...

Most of my liberal friends don't abandon their ideals just because he lost. It's not what he'd want either, I'm pretty sure.

In their minds theyre not abandoning their ideals, they straight-up dont believe the Democrats have ideals at all, and see the hell Republicans want as a way to force the Democrats to reform.

Remember when Trump started gaining power and people assumed that the impending GOP blowout would lead to a reformed GOP? Theyre basically that.

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

In their minds theyre not abandoning their ideals, they straight-up dont believe the Democrats have ideals at all, and see the hell Republicans want as a way to force the Democrats to reform.

Remember when Trump started gaining power and people assumed that the impending GOP blowout would lead to a reformed GOP? Theyre basically that.

Yes, this is it right here.

Trump braving so many controversies has recent historical basis in Bill Clinton, so that may have actually made it even harder to discredit him compared to Hillary Clinton.

Am I the only one who feels like people tend to make too big a deal of Trump being racist and misogynist, even though he isn't not those things? His biggest problem in office was being a freaking clown IMO.

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

In their minds theyre not abandoning their ideals, they straight-up dont believe the Democrats have ideals at all, and see the hell Republicans want as a way to force the Democrats to reform.

Remember when Trump started gaining power and people assumed that the impending GOP blowout would lead to a reformed GOP? Theyre basically that.

These situations don't look analogous to me? The latter situation was mainly leftists and centrists hoping the GOP would coalesce against Trump's general bigotry; they wanted that to happen before he won, though. An analogous situation would be, I dunno, republicans hoping for democrats to turn on Bernie and move closer to fascism in response, or something.

I think a better explanation is probably "these people didn't abandon their ideals, because they never actually had any"

v_charon posted...

once you start using the word "woke" as a attack you're done.

Has she started doing that? Damn

LinkMarioSamus posted...

Am I the only one who feels like people tend to make too big a deal of Trump being racist and misogynist, even though he isn't not those things? His biggest problem in office was being a freaking clown IMO.

This is great lol

foolm0r0n posted...

Has she started doing that? Damn

Yeah, unfortunately so. "Now we should all the support the Parental Rights in Education bill that recently passed in Florida, which very simply bans government and government schools from indoctrinating woke sexual values in or schools to a captive audience". This is her support for the Don't Say Gay bill.

LinkMarioSamus posted...

Am I the only one who feels like people tend to make too big a deal of Trump being racist and misogynist

No. Those people are called Trump supporters. You aren't alone, don't worry.

Okay, only one who hates him and still thinks that? Although thinking about it it is actually probably mostly his own supporters who "generalize" his detractors in such a way to make him look better.

Kenri posted...

These situations don't look analogous to me? The latter situation was mainly leftists and centrists hoping the GOP would coalesce against Trump's general bigotry; they wanted that to happen before he won, though. An analogous situation would be, I dunno, republicans hoping for democrats to turn on Bernie and move closer to fascism in response, or something.

I think a better explanation is probably "these people didn't abandon their ideals, because they never actually had any"

I totally disagree.

Maybe I explained it wrong, but its more like, we have to turn up the heat quick so the frog jumps out of the potthe alternative is slowly losing ground until were already boiled.

I remember a point as to why Hillary didn't win, was because she effectively ignored, or did minimal campaigning in states she thought were safe Democrat electoral votes, and Trump made his presence known in those states, giving him the tipping point to pick up those electoral votes.