Board 8 > Video Game Console Mafia - Topic 8: Deluxe Edition

(+) Yeah! (+)

MZero posted...

Sultan was at -3 with SBell and Peaf saying they would vote to set up red to hammer. Lopen showed up right after Marth voted to put Sultan at -3 and starting setting up to move to death

one of these four names is almost definitely scum, and Sultan is far and away the most likely

Marth, bro.

Corrik7 posted...

Marth, bro.

I have an inno scan on him which means he's 93% town lol

Does anyone want to actually town case Sultan? I'm open to listening if anyone has an argument but I haven't seen one all game

Let me ask a genuine question Corrik.

If we lynch Ctes and he does flip Godfather, would you consider SBell to be possible scum because there were two untargettables to fuck with Red's scans, so Miller isn't absolutely needed? I feel like Godfather, Roleblock, Two Untargettables, and Miller is a hell of a lot to fuck with Cop that already starts weak in a game of 15.

Wii Shop Channel Votals
[3] Sultan - Ulti, Wallz, MZero
[3] Ctes - Corrik, Marth, Sultan

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day ends on Friday at 7PM EST, in ~43 hours.

##unvote

overthinking again

EDumey posted...

Let me ask a genuine question Corrik.

If we lynch Ctes and he does flip Godfather, would you consider SBell to be possible scum because there were two untargettables to fuck with Red's scans, so Miller isn't absolutely needed? I feel like Godfather, Roleblock, Two Untargettables, and Miller is a hell of a lot to fuck with Cop that already starts weak in a game of 15.

Godfather definitely exists, but obviously if Ctes flips godfather it makes sbell an option. However, ctes isn't godfather because godfather wasn't sending the kill in with watcher out there.

Actually now that I think about it, ctes sending the kill in was after the cop died. So he could be godfather. Fair enough.

MZero posted...

I have an inno scan on him which means he's 93% town lol

I alrdy know that, but Godfather is still out there.

@EDumey
How confident are you that Sultan is mafia 1-10? 10 being most confidence.

Chris had no idea how to wifom against me this game. It's kinda funny in retrospect.

It's pointless to have Sultan shoot against sure scum to test him. If you want to test him, you do it tomorrow with the same numbers against someone you are unsure with.

Corrik7 posted...

It's pointless to have Sultan shoot against sure scum to test him. If you want to test him, you do it tomorrow with the same numbers against someone you are unsure with.

I was kinda thinking this or even prolonging it even longer while there's less options.

Tomorrow will be 7 left. 4 to lynch. 1 scum left. Then you can have Sultan test against another person of suspect. Leaving you 4 left 3 to lynch and 1 scum left if wrong.

Corrik7 posted...

It's pointless to have Sultan shoot against sure scum to test him. If you want to test him, you do it tomorrow with the same numbers against someone you are unsure with.

This is dumb

on the off-chance that Sultan is town, we want him to shoot the person we're most sure is scum. Why would we want a higher risk of hitting town? That makes no sense

MZero posted...

This is dumb

on the off-chance that Sultan is town, we want him to shoot the person we're most sure is scum. Why would we want a higher risk of hitting town? That makes no sense

You can just lynch the sure scum and keep the same numbers scenario for tomorrow. You ok, bro?

Corrik7 posted...

You can just lynch the sure scum and keep the same numbers scenario for tomorrow. You ok, bro?

Lynch Sultan today
best case scenario: he's scum
worst case scenario: he's town and shoots ctes who is most likely scum and we were going to lynch anyway

Lynch Sultan tomorrow
best case scenario: he's scum
worst case scenario: he's town and shoots someone less likely to be scum than ctes

you're taking a worse worst case scenario for the same payoff. There is literally no benefit to waiting to test Sultan.

UnderUrMattress posted...

@EDumey
How confident are you that Sultan is mafia 1-10? 10 being most confidence.

Not nearly as confident as someone that I have strong reads on. I would say the Lopen/Chris relationship and his vote yesterday put Sultan at a 7 or 8. 75% chance to be more exact.

Whereas Ctes is at about 90% chance with the 10% being that the No Kill the previous night was due to Chris intentionally no killing to set up his claim.

Corrik7 posted...

Tomorrow will be 7 left. 4 to lynch. 1 scum left. Then you can have Sultan test against another person of suspect. Leaving you 4 left 3 to lynch and 1 scum left if wrong.

I guess I just don't see the difference between setting up a plan where we test Sultan tomorrow anyway. Either way, this depends on Ctes being scum, and then whoever we lynch tomorrow or have Sultan shoot tomorrow dying.

If Ctes is town, then we cannot test Sultan until MYLO. That just sounds riskier to me, but maybe it's the same result anyway at that point, too.

If ctes and sultan arent both scum (I think they are) then I feel pretty good about the final scum being in Corrik and Marth. If ctes is somehow town and sultan is scum, lynch Corrik next. If its the opposite, lynch Marth.

Just worth noting this feels like the most vocal Corrik has been by far trying to steer a lynch. Right or wrong its probably one of those comes in and helps town solve near end game moments. The only other thing that stands out is him d1 saying were not letting red hammer. I do lean town on Corrik mainly for numbers reasons, but him being vocal against red hammering which I think Corrik did even after red claimed hammerer cop feels like the sort of thing its ballsy to do as scum. Lopen was almost overly enthusiastic about powering up red and sure a scum team could plan to react differently, but I lean town on corrik.

if ctes is scum and sultan is not, I honestly might lynch Marth next to get it out of the way and not be worrying about the inno scan at MyLo. Hes given me a scummy vibe at times and if you go back and read how he interacted with ctes yeah. Weird vibes.

We are lynching Sultan or ctes today. If ctes is "sure scum" (which technically there's a chance he could be town, but whatever) we are guaranteed a scum lynch by lynching Sultan today, assuming he cooperates as town and shoots ctes. We either lynch scum Sultan, or we resolve him and take out ctes at the same time, which we would do anyway. By lynching ctes directly we're passing on resolving Sultan when we could do both at the same time. Taking two days to do this gives scum an extra night kill.

If we lynch ctes today and test Sultan tomorrow, we're increasing the risk of lynching two town in one day AND giving scum an extra night kill for no reason

MZero posted...

Lynch Sultan today
best case scenario: he's scum
worst case scenario: he's town and shoots ctes who is most likely scum and we were going to lynch anyway

Lynch Sultan tomorrow
best case scenario: he's scum
worst case scenario: he's town and shoots someone less likely to be scum than ctes

you're taking a worse worst case scenario for the same payoff. There is literally no benefit to waiting to test Sultan.

Wrong.

You get to eliminate people that can actually be scum.

Only scenario. Sultan is town and shoots ctes who is scum today but we already knew that.

Only scenario tomorrow. Sultan is town and shoots someone we suspect is scum and aren't sure but would like to eliminate from the pool of suspects to make it easier to find the last scum.

I mean, honestly, testing Sultan is dumb af regardless because he is definitely town, but the latter scenario is better.

If ctes doesn't flip godfather the last scum can only be Marth or ulti.

Corrik7 posted...

Sultan can't be scum if you read Lopens interactions with Sultan. Lopen didn't realize how his claim couldn't exist with Sultans because he was somewhat unaware of what Sultan actually claimed. Sultan literally 100% cannot be scum.

Corrik is it possible you misunderstood or saw something we all missed? Maybe you can elaborate on this instead of us all having a stubborn back and forth for d5

But it's the exact same result if you flip the order.

Lynch Ctes
Lynch Sultan +1 by PoE
3 dead

Lynch Sultan +Ctes
Lynch 1 by PoE
3 dead.

It's not like we gain extra utility by having Sultan shoot into the PoE than if he shoots a known quantity. The lynch the next day is the exact same thing.

Also for MZero, there's no "extra night kill" in this scenario. 3 dead by the time both are resolved (this is all assuming Sultan is town and doesn't just flip scum when we kill him)

I can understand wanting to lynch Ctes and then NOT lynch Sultan at all. But if we're planning to lynch Sultan anyway, then it's the exact same outcome except we have more info when choosing the lynch tomorrow if Sultan and Ctes both die today.

wallmasterz posted...

Corrik is it possible you misunderstood or saw something we all missed? Maybe you can elaborate on this instead of us all having a stubborn back and forth for d5

Lopens role couldn't exist with Sultans. When pointed out why Lopen didn't go after Sultan if this was his role... he tried to justify it as being possible when it absolutely wasn't possible. He was too trying to justify his role being not targetable than realizing that it didn't work with sultans.

Sultan is 100% town, but I see why mzero wants to test him today. So I am okay with it now. Sultan will flip town tho.

Mzero is right that we shouldn't let scum shoot Sultan at night and him be pointed wrong if ctes is actually godfather and the last scum is ninja.

Unlikely but better to eliminate the possibility.

EDumey posted...

Also for MZero, there's no "extra night kill" in this scenario. 3 dead by the time both are resolved (this is all assuming Sultan is town and doesn't just flip scum when we kill him)

What I mean is, Sultan won't be resolved if we lynch ctes today, but if we lynch Sultan and he flips town and shoots ctes, both are resolved today. So only 1 NK will have happened and we can analyze who wanted to lynch ctes vs Sultan based on the results tomorrow. If we lynch ctes, we won't know Sultan's alignment still, which would be useful when deciding who of the PoE to lynch tomorrow

I already know sultans alignment, but it's better for eliminating unlikely scenarios.

Yeah, I think that makes sense on what both of you are saying.

Should probably give Ctes at least an opportunity to post before hammering, so I won't vote quite yet.

Corrik7 posted...

Lopens role couldn't exist with Sultans. When pointed out why Lopen didn't go after Sultan if this was his role... he tried to justify it as being possible when it absolutely wasn't possible. He was too trying to justify his role being not targetable than realizing that it didn't work with sultans.

Sultan is 100% town, but I see why mzero wants to test him today. So I am okay with it now. Sultan will flip town tho.

What if they both lied about their roles, though? You are clearing sultan over a potential fake claim. Seeing Dumey as 100% town because of how Lopen stuff played out, okay sure. Sultan, it makes zero sense. Now ill grant sultan might flip town, yes, but there is just no reason to see sultan as confirmed town. I was hoping youd quote a post or give a post #. I went back and read 4.300 on (when sultan first commented after Dumey outed Lopen) and it didnt do anything to make sultan look good. Sultan called Lopens behavior d1 towards helping red hammer opportunistic despite the two of them acting together to get ulti lynched

Corrik7 posted...

Lopen didn't realize how his claim couldn't exist with Sultans because he was somewhat unaware of what Sultan actually claimed. Sultan literally 100% cannot be scum.

forgot to respond to this, but if anything this makes it more likely Sultan is scum in my eyes. What's more likely to me is that Lopen didn't consider it because he knew Sultan's role was fake. Besides, why wouldn't he be aware of what Sultan claimed? I'm pretty sure scum would be extremely aware of a vengeful claim lol

I am not trying to be a dick I am sleep deprived and genuinely trying to understand why Corrik thinks someones claim means they cant be scum, and in the words of Michael Scott I need it explained to me like Im 5

wallmasterz posted...

What if they both lied about their roles, though? You are clearing sultan over a potential fake claim. Seeing Dumey as 100% town because of how Lopen stuff played out, okay sure. Sultan, it makes zero sense. Now ill grant sultan might flip town, yes, but there is just no reason to see sultan as confirmed town. I was hoping youd quote a post or give a post #. I went back and read 4.300 on (when sultan first commented after Dumey outed Lopen) and it didnt do anything to make sultan look good. Sultan called Lopens behavior d1 towards helping red hammer opportunistic despite the two of them acting together to get ulti lynched

One day you will mafia on my level, bruh. When Sultan flips town, just lol duhhhh.

Lets sig bet since youre the first person to ever comment on my signature in several years (its probably been a decade)

if sultan flips town you pick my sig, vice versa

You can keep one of the two lines

wallmasterz posted...

Lets sig bet since youre the first person to ever comment on my signature in several years (its probably been a decade)

if sultan flips town you pick my sig, vice versa

You would be modkilled for this, so I suggest you say haha jk.

wallmasterz posted...

Lets sig bet since youre the first person to ever comment on my signature in several years (its probably been a decade)

if sultan flips town you pick my sig, vice versa

We used to have a rule against betting anything outside of the game. Granted this was because someone swore on their mom's grave they were town or something, but still I'd advise against even a sig bet lol

@Obellisk

How do you feel about Corrik7 trusting you so much?

I have my opinion of Corrik but I'm interested to hear yours first

@wallmasterz

Can I know why you decided to exclude Chris from the report you outed? This has high key been bugging me for awhile.

There's no shot that a scum watcher visits their own kill?

@EDumey

Your order of neighborizing was

1. wallmasterz
2. SirChris
3. Peace___Frog

correct?

Any reason you did SirChris before Peace___Frog?

I find it weird that Chris got into the hood before Peaf and you both turned on him on a dime.

I am just getting a terrible vibe that the game state is a bit too easy. I do think ctes is mafia, but I don't think I'm ruling anyone out besides MZero.

If I'm the only one having this tinfoil then I can shelf those reads but if anyone else is a bit weirded out, I'd love to talk about it. Either way, I do want my questions answered.

##Vote: EDumey

Nah this is just too suspicious. You knew that Chris was a visitor of the dead as well as Death and yet you steamrolled Death and enabled everyone to push on a false premise, despite some of us thinking it may have been a good idea to possibly vote outside. Then Chris makes it into your hood and suddenly he's hard outed mafia.

In fact if I'm not mistaken, we were campaigning for ctes to be potentially be voted out instead of Death. Chris vetoed it, and so did you so that the bodyguard could get lynched over the dude that seems outed into oblivion.

Plus you were my first vote and my first vote tends to be right on this site! :D

ctes and then either EDumey/wallz

leaning dumey since wallz probs wouldn't watch the person who mafia killed, even though there is a good chance he'd get a lot of visitors.

i refuse to believe that death got spearheaded when it was largely avoidable by a pure neighborhood.

plus the sultan momentum is not the vibes.png

time to be an town hero

but i am hard vetoing sultan votes today.

seems like a slimy excuse to get him to shoot outed mafia instead of taking a potshot at someone that's been pulling the wool out of our eyes.

i have to also wonder why mafia strongman'd Peace___Frog over wallmasterz or EDumey

what would even give them the idea to strongman Peace___Frog, besides a hood that knows he is commuting AGAIN

Chris was probably ejected from the hood before Peaf joined so Chris couldn't have relayed that info to his partners.

Yeah I have largely convinced myself it's EDumey.

UnderUrMattress posted...

time to be an town hero

but i am hard vetoing sultan votes today.

seems like a slimy excuse to get him to shoot outed mafia instead of taking a potshot at someone that's been pulling the wool out of our eyes.

frankly your reads this entire game have been terrible, assuming your town, and I don't give a half a rotten carrot if you veto Sultan vote and no one else should either

the fact that you're actually voting Dumey right now speaks for itself

MZero posted...

frankly your reads this entire game have been terrible, assuming your town, and I don't give a half a rotten carrot if you veto Sultan vote and no one else should either

the fact that you're actually voting Dumey right now speaks for itself

i mean i know i'm playing bad but this is my redemption arc

why do you trust EDumey so much after everything I just outlined