Board 8 > YGO Master Duel Mafia Topic 7 - Zero Days since the last Microtransaction

(+) Yeah! (+)

BCT let's vote Kirby instead of Sultan

BlueCrystalTear posted...

To my fellow townies,

I am sorry. I don't know what else I could have done, nor do I know why people keep accusing me, or why I keep hitting myself in frustration. It's painful.

Truly yours,
BCT

Do you think Lopen is also scum?

Votals as of post # 52

[1] BCT - (Lopen), Lopen
[1] Sultan - BCT

survey

who is willing to vote Kirby despite his inno scan?

Sultan what was your plan for monster reborn?

Lopen posted...

Sultan what was your plan for monster reborn?

Well I was not counting on This delayed kill of HB but hey I'll take it. He doesnt get another scan off unfortunately but I think it could still be useful

On what? Also how much of the day did you read yesterday?

Lopen posted...

BCT let's vote Kirby instead of Sultan

Kirby just scanned town though. That reduces our odds somewhat. If he's scum, he has to be godfather. That's really gambling. Name three things that make you most sure that Kirby is Godfather.

But, here's my mindset: There's 6 players left and one zombie. Everyone knows I'm town by now. So there's 5 scumspects left. Of those five, three are town, two are scum. One is godfather. The other is unknown. Each person has a 20% chance of being each role, except with one wrinkle that neither Kirby nor Abacus can be the unknown scum role. This makes the odds screwy.

Ergo, Kirby can only be one of four roles, one of which is scum, and thus it's a 25% chance statistically speaking while just considering him. This is just the math part, not taking any posts into account.

Kirby's posts yesterday calling Abacus Godfather are suspect. Abacus and Kirby cannot be scum together, as we haven't seen a card that can nullify a guilty scan, and because of the cards it's nigh impossible that scum has two roles that scan innocent.

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

Well I was not counting on This delayed kill of HB but hey I'll take it. He doesnt get another scan off unfortunately but I think it could still be useful

It won't matter since scum's gonna win today at this rate. And since HB has a Scapegoat, is that the power you get? Not sure how that works.

BlueCrystalTear posted...

Name three things that make you most sure that Kirby is Godfather.

Kirby repeatedly brought up Godfather risk even when it was irrational to do so. This to me feels like an endgame strategy-- if he is alive in endgame, he can BS a vote on any other player in the game that scans town.
Kirby repeatedly said I didn't make sense when multiple players in the game said I did. I think this was another long strategy to get me lynched or ignored in the endgame.
Kirby could have been lynched by Poppy d1 to make Poppy look a heck of a lot less suspicious than lateraling over to SBell, he did not.

It work for his scan. But since he had a delayed death with scapegoat, it just tell me again Kirby is town.

However could still use it and have fun to see what whoever dies today did or whoever already died did.

Should have used it on a scum memeber last night now that I think of it

All good reasons. All logical reasons from a player far more experienced than I am.

Another question: If Kirby's one scum, who do you think the other is? I can assure you that it's not me. And it can't be Abacus. That just leaves Chang and Sultan.

##Vote: Kirby

Ultimately I think this makes the most sense

Kirby x Sultan makes sense
Kirby x BCT makes sense

BCT x Sultan I just have a lot of trouble imagining. I think Kirby's fixation with the godfather existing might have been his endgame mislynch gameplan and he was keeping suspicion of it up due to being godfather and knowing he could use it no matter who hb scanned.

If you want to play dangerously, go with me and defy the results of the cop scan. Or convince me to vote BCT/Sultan I suppose. Or vote me. Whatever.

I'm not willing to put any more effort into the game except at request-- I'm not going to have a ton of time this weekend. If you want my opinion it's Sultan x Kirby and if anyone wants me to argue that harder because they could be convinced, by all means, request.

I need to know who is willing to lynch the cop scan because if no one is willing to do that we're wasting time.

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

Should have used it on a scum memeber last night now that I think of it

Who, specifically, would you have used it on?

Lopen posted...

If you want my opinion it's Sultan x Kirby and if anyone wants me to argue that harder because they could be convinced, by all means, request.

Alrighty, that answers my question. Thanks.

Do you wanna hit Kirby first or Sultan first? Kirby godfather, Sultan some other role? That's honestly what I'm thinking now too, since there's not much else left that makes sense to me, not after raking Sultan over the coals for the last three hours.

Like if you want my opinion on why Sultan is scum summarized it's because no one is possibly that oblivious to buy summoned monster

He is clearly faking it at this point in the game because he either couldn't afford Ghost Belle due to cash problems or wanted to save money to mass lightning storm the Ghost Belles off the field tomorrow.

Lopen posted...

Like if you want my opinion on why Sultan is scum summarized it's because no one is possibly that oblivious to buy summoned monster

He is clearly faking it at this point in the game because he either couldn't afford Ghost Belle due to cash problems or wanted to save money to mass lightning storm the Ghost Belles off the field tomorrow.

My back up plan is to use it on whoever dies today or a scum member.

I mean you want to move to the next game let's just kill me now.

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

I mean you want to move to the next game let's just kill me now.

Who do you think the scumteam is.

BCT and You tbh.

It slightly looks like you're looking for anyone to vote anyone that isn't scum to win the game right now. You've jumped from BCT to Kirby really quickly and looks like you'd even jump to me now to get his over

Any lynch is good for you at this point
Kill town you win
You lynch scum you look towny.

Youre a really good player and I think you being scum and pointing fingers at everyone isn't a horrible play at this juncture

Lopen posted...

He is clearly faking it at this point in the game because he either couldn't afford Ghost Belle due to cash problems or wanted to save money to mass lightning storm the Ghost Belles off the field tomorrow.

Yeah, that just adds more fuel, in addition to everything I highlighted (and I didn't even get to him doubting my vanilla claim when he hadn't doubted Ben's Yugi nonsense, which pairs him with Ben tbh).

Y'know, I'm honestly more confident in Sultan being scum than Kirby. He's pushing my mislynch hard and it's gotten to me. I'm a broken man now.

...but yeah, it might be that they are saving up money, which means we should kill the one we think has more change. If they only get one Lightning Storm off and kill somebody who doesn't have one tied to it, they can maybe get away. We shouldn't let them.

Sultan: Please answer my question as to who you'd have used it on "scum" wise.

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

You've jumped from BCT to Kirby really quickly and looks like you'd even jump to me now to get his over

Did you think I was trying to lynch BCT today?

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

I mean you want to move to the next game let's just kill me now.

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

BCT and You tbh.

I feel like these statements are at odds. If it's me and BCT the game ends regardless of whether we lynch you or Kirby.

BlueCrystalTear posted...

Yeah, that just adds more fuel, in addition to everything I highlighted (and I didn't even get to him doubting my vanilla claim when he hadn't doubted Ben's Yugi nonsense, which pairs him with Ben tbh).

Y'know, I'm honestly more confident in Sultan being scum than Kirby. He's pushing my mislynch hard and it's gotten to me. I'm a broken man now.

...but yeah, it might be that they are saving up money, which means we should kill the one we think has more change. If they only get one Lightning Storm off and kill somebody who doesn't have one tied to it, they can maybe get away. We shouldn't let them.

Sultan: Please answer my question as to who you'd have used it on "scum" wise.

I'm trying to decide that actually.

Ben was Roleblocker claimed to be bus driven from HB. So probably not him.

Poppy was ninja probably sent in the kills so.. I dont nessisarily know

changmas posted...

I sent one Pot of Greed at Kirby. Looks like he replaced the trap so it didn't activate? so idk if he was lying or not.

Death wouldn't let me set down a new trap since I already had Crossout on the field, even if Crossout would be consumed at the same time I'd place a new trap. So I didn't have a choice but to convert my Crossout into Gems in order to place down Ghost Belle.

Speaking of which... if I'm reading the intro post right, Sultan... doesn't have a trap set up. What's up with that? I thought we all agreed to do a network of Ghost Belles to catch the last scum.

Currently catching up with the topic while I'm on the bus. I'll post as I go along because writing long posts on mobile is just basically asking for trouble when there's no "undo" button.

Lopen posted...

Did you think I was trying to lynch BCT today?

You voted him obviously

Anyway yeah I dunno

I just think Kirby has to be on the scumteam. It's impossible for him to not be.

So I'm not going to lynch Sultan or BCT today. We can still talk about them, but like if you wanna lynch me over Kirby by all means do it today, not tomorrow. I'm not going to fight that battle tomorrow.

There is no chance the scumteam is BCT x Sultan. That much I'm sure of. If it's you two, very well played.

So it has to be Kirby and then we go from there. If you're not willing to lynch Kirby, just lynch me and put me out of my misery. That's the ultimatum I give town.

Kirby why did you think GF was possible yesterday? And who do you think is town.

Abacus do you got anything.

Hb who you got as scum.

Bct what do you think im curious to see what your thoughts are on GF and Lopen.

I'm trying to hear a pitch from everyone at this point gg scum you're hard to find.

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

BCT and You tbh.

Yeah I don't know why Sultan would think I'm scum at this point. Would scum spend three hours ISOing somebody to prove them scum and go into as much detail as I did? That doesn't seem like something scum would do.

Lopen posted...

Did you think I was trying to lynch BCT today?

I didn't get the sense you were pushing my lynch, just testing my buttons, which is why I asked you to unvote me.

Also before we do anything I wanna know what Chang and HB think.

Lopen posted...

I feel like these statements are at odds. If it's me and BCT the game ends regardless of whether we lynch you or Kirby.

Yet another contradiction from Sultan. There have been a LOT of those. I'm surprised he's still putting up a fight tbh.

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

I'm trying to decide that actually.

Ben was Roleblocker claimed to be bus driven from HB. So probably not him.

Poppy was ninja probably sent in the kills so.. I dont nessisarily know

I presumed your comment was about a living member of scum on the next game day because there isn't much information we can get from those two.

Seriously, you're not doing yourself any favors, and keep making yourself look desperate in faking content like that.

Lopen posted...

##Gladiate: Kirby

What's this?

Only votes for me and Kirby count. If it was real (it's not real)

BlueCrystalTear posted...

Would scum spend three hours ISOing somebody to prove them scum and go into as much detail as I did? That doesn't seem like something scum would do.

I could see it

But your mate would have to be Kirby in that instance.

Flip a coin here for me actually lopen i will give you that.

I think im just weary of you beacuse you're really good

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

Bct what do you think im curious to see what your thoughts are on GF and Lopen.

It's totally viable because one would think, with a (likely) four-man scum team in a 15-person game, that there'd be a godfather at large. If there are only 3 total scum members, whoever is left has gotta be OP, because that would allow us another mislynch.

However, it's really anyone's guess who Godfather could be. Was Kirby the first one to bring it up, or was that brought up before that? I will check into it later...

Lopen posted...

But your mate would have to be Kirby in that instance.

Please explain how that long ISO has anything to do with who my partner would be if I were scum (I'm not scum).

BlueCrystalTear posted...

Please explain how that long ISO has anything to do with who my partner would be if I were scum (I'm not scum).

I could see you putting that big of an ISO in to win the game. If scum and Sultan is town, you win the game doing that.

You don't ever do that to bus your partner. 0%.

Also I am thinking BCT for last at this moment beacuse poetic for my game story.

If town wins I look great catching him day 1.

If town loses I can get laughed at by everyone and it be funny as hell

But we would have to get today right and that is difficult

Additionally if we just do BCT today and we lose id still take the laughings

However got to go ref football ill be back later

Lopen posted...

I could see you putting that big of an ISO in to win the game. If scum and Sultan is town, you win the game doing that.

You don't ever do that to bus your partner. 0%.

So... Chang and Abacus aren't scum? How do you know that for sure?

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

Also I am thinking BCT for last at this moment beacuse poetic for my game story.

If town wins I look great catching him day 1.

If town loses I can get laughed at by everyone and it be funny as hell

I'm glad you're willing to be mocked for your anti-town obsession! I can save YOU for last instead, because it would be poetic for ME to finally own the scum that was trying to destroy me.

Homework for town

Determine probability of pairs

Kirby x Sultan
Kirby x BCT
Kirby x Lopen
BCT x Sultan
BCT x Lopen
Sultan x Lopen

If you can find which of these is the team you win the game.

I have ruled out all pairs involving me as well as Sultan x BCT. So for me it is obvious to lynch Kirby.

BlueCrystalTear posted...

So... Chang and Abacus aren't scum? How do you know that for sure?

Chang - Too ridiculous a claim to be faked
Abacus - Scum swiftly executes the cop ASAP if Abacus is GF

As for BCT vs Sultan as Kirby's mate there are a lot of angles to take there

For me the obvious tell is this

Yesterday Sultan was saying "there's no way Lopen is scum he's putting in so much effort"
Today Sultan is saying I'm possibly scum even though nothing has changed aside from Kirby being scanned town.

This is similar to Kirby's stance on BCT gradually softening to suspect him more and more as the day went on.

The tells are in how open they're leaving lynches. If you're town, you need to have this game closer to solved by now.

And in fact BCT read me completely right

I wanted to see if BCT would get hysterical and countervote me. I believe we had a connection yesterday and he legitimately thought I was town-- hysterical as he may be with OMGUS I don't believe he would go back on that read today. And he didn't.

Compare BCT's consistency vs Sultan's and it's telling.

Lopen posted...

Chang - Too ridiculous a claim to be faked

Chang's role is clearly legit but his alignment could just as easily be scum as it could be town. That part we don't know for sure. His role doesn't scream "town" to me, but it doesn't scream "scum" either.

Abacus - Scum swiftly executes the cop ASAP if Abacus is GF

Always possible they keep the cop alive to confuse people. Han is still an odd kill regardless with a claimed cop in the game. I think it was done because Sultan figured Han was onto him. That post where Sultan said that he was glad Han was the night kill STILL sticks out at me. Along with the sheer amount of contradictions.

Just thought I'd say I'm not fully excluding these possibilities yet. But I wanna know what Chang, HB, and Abacus all are thinking.

I'm trying to logic all this together as best I can. Lopen's town, Sultan's scum. Many potential pairs left.

Scum is too cramped for gold if Chang is scum

I read day 1, and started day two. I could get behind a Sultan x Kirby lynch - though personally I'd prefer Sultan over Kirby first just because of the scan.

Sultan digs into BCT really early on for nothing. Seems to be trying to drum up "content". Because let me tell you, there isn't a lot there (to me) other than his BCT interactions.

Ben puts Sultan in his book of confirmed town (Post 54, topic 1)

Ben then tries to get Sultan not to answer questions in regards to why Sultan thought Yugi may be a legit role

On post 94, topic 1 Kirby defends both Sutan and Ben.

Post 119, Topic 1 Poppy comes in to defend Sultan saying he's more town for saying BCT came in to protect themselves.

Then there is a lot of interesting interactions with Poppy, Ben, and Kirby that I kind of agree with looks off. Poppy keeps saying that Kirby is putting in no content, but Ben is being buddy buddy. Kirby is consistently on Ben.

Poppy also seems to be coaching/giving advice to BCT but this seems like legit advice/trying to get BCT to look favorably onto Poppy.

BlueCrystalTear posted...

Always possible they keep the cop alive to confuse people.

Not if their team is scanned town

Town scan on GF that early confuses town way more

Overall with that, Sultan has a lot more moments to do a double take on within the first day, and part of the second day.

Kirby I get more of a performance to try to separate the three players from each other - maybe because they knew Kirby would scan town?

ViolentAbacus posted...

though personally I'd prefer Sultan over Kirby first just because of the scan.

That scan isn't going to disappear

Rip off the bandaid and lynch me or him

Unless you think it's Sultan x BCT somehow. If you think that is possible, argue it.

Alternatively, if you think BCT x Kirby is impossible for some reason, then sure why not lynch Sultan today.