Current Events > U.S. likely to face recession in 6 - 9 months.

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Ajiri
10/10/22 2:07:14 PM
#1:


https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1579506693737586690


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Irony
10/10/22 2:07:29 PM
#2:


I heard this like a year ago

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SauI_Goodman
10/10/22 2:07:59 PM
#3:


Homeowner status here i come!

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Doom_Art
10/10/22 2:08:37 PM
#4:


Zero Hedge is a far-right libertarian financial blog and news aggregator. Zero Hedge, per its motto, is bearish in its investment outlook and analysis, often deriving from its adherence to the Austrian School of economics and credit cycles

heh

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Ajiri
10/10/22 2:08:40 PM
#5:


SauI_Goodman posted...
Homeowner status here i come!
That's messed up lmao

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gunplagirl
10/10/22 2:09:06 PM
#6:


Irony posted...
I heard this like a year ago
This

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DKBananaSlamma
10/10/22 2:09:11 PM
#7:


SauI_Goodman posted...
Homeowner status here i come!


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Ajiri
10/10/22 2:09:13 PM
#8:


Doom_Art posted...
heh
https://mobile.twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1579476092187975680

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SauI_Goodman
10/10/22 2:09:42 PM
#9:


Ajiri posted...
That's messed up lmao
I agree. but i have been hoping for a recession and housing crisis for a while now.

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Prismsblade
10/10/22 2:12:52 PM
#10:


Irony posted...
I heard this like a year ago
Are things better now then they were a year ago?

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eaglei3
10/10/22 2:13:02 PM
#11:


Ajiri posted...
That's messed up lmao

It might be messed up, but a lot of people who are trying to be first home buyers have this mentality. If they did not have a home when prices shot up over the last 2 years, they have fallen behind on equity and will have a harder time getting a house, especially with mortgage rates where they are.
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Bleuets
10/10/22 2:14:33 PM
#12:


We are in a recession now.
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Doom_Art
10/10/22 2:14:36 PM
#13:


I mean the odds of a global recession are always 100% eventually

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Makeveli_lives
10/10/22 2:18:04 PM
#14:


SauI_Goodman posted...
Homeowner status here i come!
I hope you get a 8 percent interest rate.

eaglei3 posted...
It might be messed up, but a lot of people who are trying to be first home buyers have this mentality. If they did not have a home when prices shot up over the last 2 years, they have fallen behind on equity and will have a harder time getting a house, especially with mortgage rates where they are.
On that note, my rate is 3.3 percent when I bought like last august. Any chance it goes down a bit so I can refinance since because of a housing crash there will be a ton of new buyers again or is that not how it works?

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DKBananaSlamma
10/10/22 2:18:56 PM
#15:


Makeveli_lives posted...
I hope you get a 8 percent interest rate.
You can always refinance an interest rate. You can't refinance a high principal >_>

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Smackems
10/10/22 2:19:07 PM
#16:


Well wtf are we in now then lmao

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Phantom_Nook
10/10/22 2:19:25 PM
#17:


My mom told me it's happening this month so I have to buy gold and silver ASAP.

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DoesntMatter
10/10/22 2:19:30 PM
#18:


we're already in a recession

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Ajiri
10/10/22 2:19:46 PM
#19:


Bleuets posted...
We are in a recession now.
Not yet, but we're going in that direction.

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Ajiri
10/10/22 2:20:47 PM
#20:


Smackems posted...
Well wtf are we in now then lmao

DoesntMatter posted...
we're already in a recession


Currently we are not in a recession.

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DoesntMatter
10/10/22 2:26:22 PM
#21:


Ajiri posted...
Currently we are not in a recession.
https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/are-we-in-a-recession

In the summer of 2022, politicians, economists and market professionals engaged in a great semantic debate over whether or not the U.S. economy was in recession. The argument, invariably influenced by politics, came down to how you defined the word recession.

According to the general definitiontwo consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP)the U.S. entered a recession in the summer of 2022.

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Ajiri
10/10/22 2:28:34 PM
#22:


I mean it's debatable but most people say we're not in a recession yet but going into one soon.

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littlebro07
10/10/22 2:29:07 PM
#23:


Phantom_Nook posted...
My mom told me it's happening this month so I have to buy gold and silver ASAP.

I keep seeing people say "buy gold and silver"

but how do I do that

Like do they mean literally go buy gold bars or is this something I can buy like a "stock"

I'm just stockpiling cash at the moment, trying to hit $10k in savings by end of year but also tossing $100 a month into some "safe" stonks

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DoesntMatter
10/10/22 2:30:09 PM
#24:


Ajiri posted...
I mean it's debatable
not according to the general definition of recession

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2Pacavelli
10/10/22 2:30:53 PM
#25:


Isn't the US already in recession?
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Eramir
10/10/22 2:32:25 PM
#26:


2Pacavelli posted...
Isn't the US already in recession?
No not yet

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Mearcstapa
10/10/22 2:34:31 PM
#27:


Home prices better get fucking blasted.

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Eramir
10/10/22 2:35:47 PM
#28:


Mearcstapa posted...
Home prices better get fucking blasted.
Thats what Saul Goodman is hoping for too, hes trying to buy his own house

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Irony
10/10/22 2:38:28 PM
#29:


2Pacavelli posted...
Isn't the US already in recession?
Basically

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Zeeak4444
10/10/22 2:39:45 PM
#30:


People still out here talking about how a recession and market crash means theyll buy their first house lmao.

Eramir posted...
Thats what Saul Goodman is hoping for too, hes trying to buy his own house

without understanding how buying a home works im willing to bet.

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ScazarMeltex
10/10/22 2:40:30 PM
#31:


I never would have predicted that the endess cycle of boom and bust would continue.

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TaylorHeinicke
10/10/22 2:41:09 PM
#32:


Ajiri posted...
I mean it's debatable but most people say we're not in a recession yet but going into one soon.
How can "most people say we're not in a recession" when the general definition ("general" implying "most people") of a recession is:

DoesntMatter posted...
two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP)


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Eramir
10/10/22 2:42:03 PM
#33:


Zeeak4444 posted...
People still out here talking about how a recession and market crash means theyll buy their first house lmao.

without understanding how buying a home works im willing to bet.

Can you blame them, home ownership has gotten out of reach for many first time buyers


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Eramir
10/10/22 2:44:03 PM
#34:


TaylorHeinicke posted...
How can "most people say we're not in a recession" when the general definition ("general" implying "most people") of a recession is:

the news never said were in a recession. I mean if were in recession we would probably know 100% for sure

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littlebro07
10/10/22 2:44:10 PM
#35:


I just want interest rates to go back into the 3s damn it

Got my mortgage at 4.75% because it was a 0-down, no PMI program and was going to refinance when rates were in the 2s but didn't have anything saved for closing costs and didn't want to add them to the loan.

God damn it I should have added them to the loan T_T

Guess 4.75 isn't terrible considering the current rates though lol

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Zeeak4444
10/10/22 2:57:57 PM
#36:


Eramir posted...
Can you blame them, home ownership has gotten out of reach for many first time buyers

it was actually the best its ever been over the last few years. This year is when it got back to normal and out of first time buyers hands.

lets say youre looking at 400,000 for a house. You get a 3% interest and youre looking at ~1750-1800 give or take on principle and interest.

at 6% youre looking at that payment jumping up to 2550 for just principle and interest.

sure you can refinance if interest rates come back down again at some point but youre talking about 600-700 more a month. I mean you might get lucky finding something but this isnt a case of people having predatory loans with balloon payments like 2008, the market is far more stable and less of a bubble from before so if a market readjustment does come its likely gonna be due to high interest rates pushing away demand at which point youre gambling just the same that youll find a spot to buy that wont lose value while hoping interest rates drop.

Which is a hell of a lot riskier than having bought over the last two years or so.

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fan357
10/10/22 3:01:04 PM
#37:


Bleuets posted...
We are in a recession now.


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MrDrMan
10/10/22 3:26:00 PM
#38:


Ajiri posted...
That's messed up lmao

First time buyers have been getting screwed. Its about time we had our chance.

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Smackems
10/10/22 3:27:21 PM
#39:


Ajiri posted...
I mean it's debatable but most people say we're not in a recession yet but going into one soon.
Feels like one to me

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MrDrMan
10/10/22 3:28:14 PM
#40:


Zeeak4444 posted...
it was actually the best its ever been over the last few years. This year is when it got back to normal and out of first time buyers hands.

lets say youre looking at 400,000 for a house. You get a 3% interest and youre looking at ~1750-1800 give or take on principle and interest.

at 6% youre looking at that payment jumping up to 2550 for just principle and interest.

sure you can refinance if interest rates come back down again at some point but youre talking about 600-700 more a month. I mean you might get lucky finding something but this isnt a case of people having predatory loans with balloon payments like 2008, the market is far more stable and less of a bubble from before so if a market readjustment does come its likely gonna be due to high interest rates pushing away demand at which point youre gambling just the same that youll find a spot to buy that wont lose value while hoping interest rates drop.

Which is a hell of a lot riskier than having bought over the last two years or so.

I thought raising interest rates is supposed to drive housing costs down? Meaning instead of paying 6% on 400k youd be paying 6% on a lower amount.

Regardless I wouldnt say what weve had was an ideal time to buy. Housing costs have been absurd. Even with 0 interest overpaying is overpaying.


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HHH_is_the_game
10/10/22 3:32:19 PM
#41:


The market's been terrible lately, does this mean its going even lower?

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ZMythos
10/10/22 3:35:29 PM
#42:


"ThAnKs JoE bRaNdOn"


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Mearcstapa
10/10/22 3:37:53 PM
#43:


I sincerely hope it's a depression, and a long deep one.

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DarthAragorn
10/10/22 3:44:11 PM
#44:


Good, burn the economy to the fucking ground.

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BlueTigerLion
10/10/22 3:46:52 PM
#45:


Irony posted...
I heard this like a year ago

Same. Biden changed the definition of recession so we arent in one.

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eaglei3
10/10/22 3:48:44 PM
#46:


MrDrMan posted...
I thought raising interest rates is supposed to drive housing costs down? Meaning instead of paying 6% on 400k youd be paying 6% on a lower amount.

Regardless I wouldnt say what weve had was an ideal time to buy. Housing costs have been absurd. Even with 0 interest overpaying is overpaying.

Interest rates are only one factor that effects the market. Supply of new homes is another. We are still in a supply crunch of homes that drives the price up, but If you are a builder, why would want to solve this necessarily?

Investors have also become way more prevalent in the market nowadays with rentals and corporate purchases. The large investors can usually out right purchase with cash, so interest rates are less of an issue for them than a normal person trying to buy a home if they have to go through with a mortgage. More 2nd homes and investment homes being snatched up means less homes out there for people who need a first home.
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bknight
10/10/22 3:50:25 PM
#47:


unemployment too low to be in a recession right now, 3.5%
was 10% in 2008 recession
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Zeeak4444
10/10/22 3:50:36 PM
#48:


MrDrMan posted...
I thought raising interest rates is supposed to drive housing costs down? Meaning instead of paying 6% on 400k youd be paying 6% on a lower amount.

Regardless I wouldnt say what weve had was an ideal time to buy. Housing costs have been absurd. Even with 0 interest overpaying is overpaying.

This is all speculation for the most part because thats all it can ever be but all signs point towards market value being pretty accurate. Raising interest rates typically mean the market cools off because demand has dropped due to people not wanting to buy and overpay from those high interest rates.

Its all essentially supply and demand. You might pay 6% on something cheaper, but not only is that a gamble itself, youre also paying the same for less (at best) and if prices really did drop in a crash, youre not gonna be outbidding the people who are paying in cash to avoid the interest rates who will scoop up the cheap houses.

edit: ninjad by Eagle who nailed it.

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lilORANG
10/10/22 3:53:00 PM
#49:


1) we were in a recession all last year

2) Jamie Dimon is a pos

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hyperpowder
10/10/22 4:17:27 PM
#50:


Good, I wanna buy a second home

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