Board 8 > Dota 2 Mafia 2 Topic 5 - Mo Money Mo Mayo

(+) Yeah! (+)

Lopen posted...

Corrik7 posted...
I haven't argued to lynch Kirby. I am doing exactly what I did last game with Ben's doctor claim. HEY IF I DIE LOOK AT THESE THINGS LATER ON BECAUSE SOMETHING SMELLS HERE. IT COULD BE NOTHING OR EVERYTHING. Basically.

My vote is where it is simply due to not deciding what avenue is best today, not because of what I am pushing. It's important to get everything on the board with Kirby though, because if he isn't town. It could be eventually catastrophic. I am operating Kirby as town due to how many people likely can't be paired with him as scum, though ironically this all kinda falls apart if he is 3rd party I suppose. But, for all intents scum would view the 3rd party as town as well right now. And because he tried some bs host read tags argument to confirm as town slyly. But, it's something town absolutely has to be aware of a a possibility going forward.

This is 100% hinting at voting Kirby. You're so blinded by confirmation bias you're somehow interpreting this as hinting at Poppy (who he wasn't even voting yet)

Corrik targetting someone he has a scum read and wanted to lynch is infinitely less likely than the guy he literally said to look at IF HE DIES twice

*targetting Kirby, not voting

And you can't say "objective", people vote to lynch obvtown all the time thinking that behavior that can't be Town has to be Scum, without realizing the behavior makes no sense for Town more.

I mean I too would guess he targeted Kirby. It just requires Death to lie. I haven't against both being scum. What was the case they could not be again?

Objective in the sense that it's not tainted by any inherent bias on my part and looks wrong to an unbiased observer

These things don't mean that it is objectively correct to call you scum, just that town can take actions that look objectively scummy too.

Anyway you can paint the game as though-- I've had you on scum lists, towards the tail end usually. That's about the extent of my offensive on you this game.

MZero posted...

This is 100% hinting at voting Kirby. You're so blinded by confirmation bias you're somehow interpreting this as hinting at Poppy (who he wasn't even voting yet)

Corrik targetting someone he has a scum read and wanted to lynch is infinitely less likely than the guy he literally said to look at IF HE DIES twice

No.

It's hinting to look at his role carefully if he dies, nothing more. The fact that he goes into where his vote is I believe is his other hint. But to me it has to be Kirby or Poppy.

If Death didn't have an observer ward, I would say go for Kirby today. Because he does and I don't believe scum death lies about it, we go with Poppy.

I am not 100% against lynching Kirby if we really want to go that way, because I think him being Roshan or Scum that Corrik didn't target isn't out of the question, but yeah.

I am 100% against

Chang
Red
Hb

As lynches

ctesjbuvf posted...

It just requires Death to lie. I haven't against both being scum. What was the case they could not be again?

I simply don't think Death goes that hard in with Kirby. They are linked together HARD.

Death plays a conservative scum game. It would completely shock me if they were both scum

Death town, Kirby scum that didn't get targeted by Corrik is possible. As is Death town/scum, Kirby Roshan.

Lopen posted...

Objective in the sense that it's not tainted by any inherent bias on my part and looks wrong to an unbiased observer

These things don't mean that it is objectively correct to call you scum, just that town can take actions that look objectively scummy too.

Anyway you can paint the game as though-- I've had you on scum lists, towards the tail end usually. That's about the extent of my offensive on you this game.

You had a list of four scum with me at the top. I assumed that meant I was fourth, and whomever was at the bottom was first. But when I brought this up, you said the person at the bottom was fourth. Implication was there.

Can you answer what I postulated at the bottom of the previous page?

Lopen posted...

No.

It's hinting to look at his role carefully if he dies, nothing more. The fact that he goes into where his vote is I believe is his other hint. But to me it has to be Kirby or Poppy.

He wasn't even voting Poppy yet when he posted that, and that whole paragraph is about Kirby. You say I jump through hoops, you're literally taking the one word from that entire post that is even tangentially related to Poppy.

When has a hider ever hinted at their target by voting them anyway? It makes no sense. Especially one they voiced suspicion of and had as someone they would lynch. You give Corrik a ton of credit and yet you think he couldn't come up with a better hint than that?

HanOfTheNekos posted...

I do think Sultan was bussed early enough. Not as early as you and probably death had looked at him, but his lynch was accepted hours before day end.

That in mind, what does that say about Hb?

I assume this is what you want my input on.

I don't think it says as much as you think it does but I'll go look at the end of the day.

MZero posted...

He wasn't even voting Poppy yet when he posted that, and that whole paragraph is about Kirby. You say I jump through hoops, you're literally taking the one word from that entire post that is even tangentially related to Poppy.

He mentions his vote, based on nothing

Which to me is a hint of "look at what my vote ends the day on" it has nothing to do with whether he was on Poppy at the time

The fact that he was as town around for the lynch, chose not reassign it to Hb or Sultan, that to me is telling

Lopen posted...

I simply don't think Death goes that hard in with Kirby. They are linked together HARD.

Death plays a conservative scum game. It would completely shock me if they were both scum

ultimately i think i do agree with this. it seems out of character for death to extend himself like that on a lie that could easily backfire. it would have to ultimately be the rest of his scum team pushing him hard to make that play, i think. which feels more unlikely to me at this point.

*future scum me makes notes about playing absolutely insane*

Do people think Death makes post 50 of topic 1 if he is scum with Sultan?

I mean I also don't think Death lied regardless of alignment.

Lopen posted...

The fact that he was as town around for the lynch, chose not reassign it to Hb or Sultan, that to me is telling

Tbf though, I don't think Corrik moved his vote in Baseball Musical either when it was clear hit vote wasn't someone being lynched.

Lopen posted...

He mentions his vote, based on nothing

Which to me is a hint of "look at what my vote ends the day on" it has nothing to do with whether he was on Poppy at the time

The fact that he was as town around for the lynch, chose not reassign it to Hb or Sultan, that to me is telling

Yeah Corrik said to look at Kirby if he dies in two separate posts but heck all that this one word is the hint. Good lord dude

I'm going to bed hopefully you all decide to just lynch me and put me out of my misery lol

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Do people think Death makes post 50 of topic 1 if he is scum with Sultan?

I'll admit I don't think that is a very telling post either way.

So first of all Han. I'm not sure how you could say Sultan is a foregone conclusion. Here is two hours before the end of day.

[3] - hb - MZero, (Poppy), Kirby, (Lea), (Lopen), Lea
[2] - Sultan - (Poppy), (MZero), Lopen, Sbell
[1] - Kirby - (Lea), (Lopen), (Ulti), (Corrik), (Lopen), (Lea), (Sultan), hb
[1] - Red - Poppy, (Death)
[1] - Poppy - Corrik
[1] - Ulti - (Sultan), (Lea), (Lopen), Sultan
[1] - Lea - (Ulti), (Kirby), (Ctes), Ctes.
[0] - Corrik - (Lea)
[0] - Han - (Lea), (Lopen), (Kirby), (Sbell)
[0] - Lopen - (Kirby)

Two hours before lynch, the votals look like this. Death then follows up by pushing the lead forward on Hb. Then Chang goes on Sultan. Ulti starts building a case on Sultan, but DOES NOT VOTE HIM. This is actually very important to me as it shows that Ulti is kinda leaving the door open to vote whichever and not burying Sultan then and there.

[4] - hb - MZero, (Poppy), Kirby, (Lea), (Lopen), Lea, Death
[3] - Sultan - (Poppy), (MZero), Lopen, Sbell, Chang

Poppy votes Sultan improperly, then votes him just minutes before deadline.

[4] - hb - MZero, (Poppy), Kirby, (Lea), (Lopen), Lea, Death
[4] - Sultan - (Poppy), (MZero), Lopen, Sbell, Chang, Poppy

Then finally Ulti + Lea jump over to Sultan, and Kirby in the last second, leaving

[7] - Sultan - (Poppy), (MZero), Lopen, Sbell, Chang, Poppy, Lea, Ulti, Kirby
[2] - hb - MZero, (Poppy), (Kirby), (Lea), (Lopen), (Lea), Death

This is actually... a lot more interesting than it seems, now. I'm glad you encouraged me to do this, Han. Thoughts to follow.

Mzero where did that even come from?

Also Ctes I dont know why your suspicion of Kirby is still that great.

MZero I get why you don't buy into the Poppy stuff and that's fair.

But do you seriously think Death is lying, or that Corrik was redirected to scum?

Ironically, lynching Kirby is the best play regardless.

That seems like twice now that MZero seems like he's faking exasperation tbh.

Lopen, it's because he bounced without trying to defend himself. His lynch was accepted. It wasn't fought. If you believe it was, then we have a problem as Hb was the other lynch and Lea was the one pushing it foremost, iirc

Also I'm sorry for saying you should beg like a dog I'll say beg like a normal human being next time

So you've got two possibilites

Hb is scum. There isn't a lot to read, as the scum have no interest in which way the vote actually goes.
Hb is not scum. Poppy looks better. Chang looks better. Death looks worse, Ulti looks worse. Kirby looks worse.

In either case, I think me and SBell look very town as we are the only ones propping Sultan's vote total up to make this competitive. Which is good. I think I need to move Sbell back up my town list and just accept he's paranoid of me as scum. Although I do recall the idea that Sbell liked bussing scum being brought up in the past. I think Chang looks like town here too, as Death's vote positions Hb to run away with it if he doesn't join the lynch when he does.

So Poppy, Lea, Ulti, Kirby, those are kinda null. If anything I call Ulti's suspicious as it seemed like he was clearly leaning Sultan for some time but wasn't committing.

Sultan likely bounced because I was frustrating him with my tenacity and he legitimately didn't have a lot of time to play-- it's not because it was a foregone conclusion he would be lynched. I could not get him above 2 votes for a very long time. For as much as I called him a liar, I do believe he didn't have a lot of time to play the game, his reactions and his claims of what he was doing with his game time are what I didn't believe.

I need to reread Ulti in particular at that last stretch and see how much indication he gave to humoring hb. I feel like he went hard on Sultan and it's weird to not just put your vote down sooner if you're doing that.

Votals? Deadline is nearing.

htaeD posted...

Also Ctes I dont know why your suspicion of Kirby is still that great.

Because Lea flipped town.

oh god this is a lot of posts

Lopen posted...

Also boiling down the activity to speculation on Corrik is reductive

Your exasperation seems fake. You're so sure hb is scum. Why. Build on that, lead the day yourself.

i literally have been since the start of the day are you not READING MY POSTS

Ulti and Poppy both comment on how townish Hb is towards the end of yesterday

Poppy votes Hb today
Ulti votes Hb today

OK

1. hb despite having a severe overreaction to sultan and calling him possible scum ost of the day avoids voting him at the deadline when he's in danger of being lynched
2. sultan makes noise about hb being likely scum then when hb is the lead wagon against him makes a waffly post full of excuses and votes elsewhere. the fact both did this behavior and were willing to vote the other is a likely sign both are scum
3. HB this phase has not even really attempted to slve, he has mostly sat in the background while lopen consumed the thread with his asinine theory about corrik visiting me

there that's a nice numbered list

Lopen posted...

Ulti and Poppy both comment on how townish Hb is towards the end of yesterday

Poppy votes Hb today
Ulti votes Hb today

OK

okay you're literally not reading my posts now because i opened the day explaining why i thought hb made sense as a sultan partner

you're either scum or complete dogshit

Rather than continue to DM individual players I will give a generic warning to chill out with personal attacks. If you can't behave at least partially civilized, then consider replacing out. Last warning before modkills.

PoppyTheNinja posted... okay so anyway two things i wanted to get at:

1. i think it's unavoidably suspicious that Hb and Sultan both refused to vote the other in self-preservation and gave weird reasoning for it. Hb had sultan in his list of potential scum but left his vote on kirby instead when sultan was the bigger wagon. maybe he's town that got stuck in an unfortunate tunnel and this is all bad coincidence but it looks not great to me. it's especially weird because in an earlier topic Hb blew up at sultan for scumreading him for bad reasons but then wouldn't vote him. that to me feels like it could easily be distancing

PoppyTheNinja posted... that's not relevant, he was the other main wagon when you left and instead you voted kirby, someone who had 0 votes and was unlikely to ever be a wagon:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/80156774/967861980
^votecount

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/80156774/967862191
^you voting kirby and leaving with yourself as the lead wagon

if i'm not mistaken, you seemed to have indicated some suspicion of sultan earlier in the day, so why not vote him there instead?

PoppyTheNinja posted... https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/80156774/967856692
yes, right here, you said you'd be down for pushing sultan as his reason on you was the worst but then a wagon on him comes up at the end of day when you're in danger of dyin and you won't even vote in self preservation onto someone you fos?

PoppyTheNinja posted... okay, well, i felt like a number of people had expressed not being willing to vote kirby, but maybe that wasn't your perception

it's still notable you said you'd be down for pushing sultan but didn't vote him given the opportunity, and quite notably sultan also refused to place a self preservation vote onto you, and i can't help but find that suspicious

i think i quoted the posts from hb/sultan but i can do that AGAIN if necessary

btw if hb flips scum always kill lopen because his arguments now go beyond any plausible lack of knowledge of the game into willfull ignorance and bad faith

i have laid out my arguments in explicit terms and he is acting like i've never a single word on them

that's not being tunneled, that'd avoiding addressing things because they are inconvenient to you

Well Ok

Btw I have to amend my statement about Sbell. He did have a vote down on Sultan, which I somehow didnt take into my calculations.
He was less distant than I said then.

Fun fact big meanieface Lopen has gotten zero of those DMs. That being said I will chill out with the passive aggressive stuff-- I think it's getting some people a bit edgy. I'm sorry, Han, for being slightly harsh with some of my responses to you.

Anyway theory

Sultan signed off on bussing him when he peaced out, knew he was doomed if Hb was killed today, tried to gain more town points by just killing him yesterday, knowing they could convert Hb today.

The two on Sultan yesterday that are on Hb today overcompensated for their votes

Ulti in particular took a long time to vote, sus.

Town
The rest

Roshan
Kirby

Scum
Poppy
Ulti
MZero

Looks like this game is about wrapped up. That being said, I'm willing to split the difference here and vote Kirby. It is very possible that being in the endgame now is Corrik's hint (if it is, your hint sucks!), and I am extremely confident Ulti is scum as well at this point and him being a plausible Corrik target would explain that.

And for as much as I hate the idea that Death would link that hard to Kirby as scummates, that... is possible, which would make Poppy look much better.

We do not lynch Hb though. Just not a smart lynch at this point. Resolving Corrik is paramount.

Wait why is Kirby Roshan again?

Because I have to think Corrik's crazy rant about cult leaders meant something even if he wasn't targeted at night and a miller claim is a natural target for the day half of Corrik's ability.

Okay I am sorry but that feels a lot more tenuous than the Poppy thing (which I at least understand)

Third party claiming miller to townclear themself also makes sense for what it's worth, even in a vacuum. And we know Lea was legit miller. Ultimate miller is a good setup trap, but it could also be good damage control because Lea counterclaimed.

Lopen posted...

To be clear on what I meant, Poppy, and I do feel this is a good general vibe of your play even if it isn't the crux of my argument.

In the game of mafia there are two reasons to refer to past posts directly by quote.

The first, the more obvious, is to help people understand why you're saying what you are and to try and convince them you're correct.

The more insidious use however is to make it cumbersome to read your posts, to give the illusion that you're trying to solve the game

People who make long drawn out posts packed to the brim with quotes from other posts tend to be scum more often than not imo. Particularly when they aren't using these floods of quotes to actively pursue a case on a single person.

So it's not that you necessarily need more aggression, just that when someone takes a posting style such as yours without narrowing the scope of their point, it is a strong diversionary tactic. It's why so many people think you come across as townlike right now. I would possibly feel the same if I could recall any cases you really helped drive that weren't already going that way.

cool wow thanks sorry for not playing in the way you want people to

but i guess that's my fault for not being active at similar times as everyone else and having to catch up with quotes

that's a lot of fun, being accused of scum because i'm playing in a different style

really makes me feel welcome

Lopen posted...

Ulti in particular took a long time to vote, sus.

ulti was literally spending the entire deadline burying sultan if you actually read his posts

i think atp lopen's arguments are so garbage he's actually flailing scum

never let him endgame tyvm

So anyway what I'm saying is

We need to vote someone that isn't red, chang, or hb.

I am willing to vote these today
Poppy
Kirby
Ulti

I will also put it on record that even if Poppy is town, MZero looks godawful today. Those hoops are real he's jumping through. If he's scum he either is trying to protect his mate or knows I'm wrong about Poppy being the target and it's showing.