Board 8 > Dota 2 Mafia 2 Topic 5 - Mo Money Mo Mayo

(+) Yeah! (+)

Lopen I do want to remind you that scum has that BP role for Sultan

Lopen posted...

You should be the one groveling because if you're town this game from you is atrocious. Hb is just as bad as the other two

Drive any lynch that isn't idle centric I'm begging you.

Thats right, get on your knees and beg. It's where players like you belong.

Obellisk posted...

Why is it not possible for scum to skate by idlly? I as scum do that practically all the time. lay low. mimic something someone else already said, idle out again.

I mean Poppy hasn't been what I'd call super active either

In his case he directly quotes what someone else said but it's basically the same.

Lopen posted...

Why the hell are you jumping through so many setup hoops to rationalize this though. You yourself pointed out that Corrik definitely was telling us to notice IF HE DIES and it's obvious that he hinted Poppy. (In addition to Kirby)

Why are you so sure Poppy is town that you are humoring scum lawyers or conditional EK (used on CORRIK???)

I'm not jumping through hoops. I'm saying there are too many possibilities to be like "Corrik targeted Poppy and died, 100%"

and since I haven't read Poppy as scum, I'm not interested in lynching him based on speculation. I'd rather just lynch someone who has actually been scummy (Hb). It's not even that I'm super convinced Poppy is town, I just don't think the case on him is very good

htaeD posted...

Lopen I do want to remind you that scum has that BP role for Sultan

I realize that

I think there is a conditional EK in the setup that could not fire night 1. Or there is something resembling a PGO in the setup or something, to justify Sultan being BP

But there is no chance there is just an extra kill that can toss the game into Lylo night 1

MZero posted...

I'm not jumping through hoops. I'm saying there are too many possibilities to be like "Corrik targeted Poppy and died, 100%

Corrik targeted Poppy and died, 99.7%

*claps come on boy, 0.3% you can jump through it!!

Though in that case it couldnt be scum that killed Corrik anyway, and I feel town would have fessed up to shooting Corrik at this point.
If they dont they might risk Poppy dying and they cannot be sure what Poppy is.

But Roshan is still a candidate for the kill

I can confirm that Kirby indeed moved and went to the shop, that much is certain.

If Corrik visited Kirby, Death lying is the only possibility.

We also dont know how many scum there are

Lopen posted...

Corrik targeted Poppy and died, 99.7%

*claps come on boy, 0.3% you can jump through it!!

You sure you don't want to lynch Lopen, MZero

I'm okay whatever he flips if it means self regulating our community

Lopen posted...

Yes, the crux of the argument against him was that he peaced out before end of day yesterday and general inactivity.

There are other wrinkles but it that really is the meat of it.

he was a lynch leader yesterday before he ever peaced out >_>

and show me one post suspecting Hb for "general inactivity". One post

When I came after Hb in "lopen gets fucked by Chang and sultan" Mafia, he was defensive. Very defensive.

He hasn't showed the same fire in this game

Roshan having a conditional kill that only works on his hunter is poor flavor and poor game design for Corrik's role imo

We can't deal in absolutes, I realize, but pursuing Corrik's likely target is a better case than anyone today. Hb did not claim scum. Hb defended himself fine earlier today.

What are the odds of yesterday's lynch being scum/scum? What agenda was scum pushing? Nothing? I mean lynching hb would give us some information possibly, but it's a cowardly lynch.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

You sure you don't want to lynch Lopen, MZero

I'm okay whatever he flips if it means self regulating our community

the fact that he's reducing the Hb case to an idle lynch when that's completely false makes me kinda want to do it

this coming from the guy who said

Lopen posted...

I think they're both scum but I think HB is attempting to fall on the grenade for Sultan

Lopen posted...

Yes. Which is why it doesn't make sense why HB wouldn't vote sultan. Think mzero nailed it. Distancing.

Lopen posted...

Hb likely scum just because he wouldn't vote Sultan. Remember this when evaluating reads tomorrow

end of day yesterday

HanOfTheNekos posted...

When I came after Hb in "lopen gets fucked by Chang and sultan" Mafia, he was defensive. Very defensive.

He hasn't showed the same fire in this game

When he showed fire in this game people called it fake

He has shown frustration which I totally get

Yeah some of HBs flaws were sounding almost as fake as Sultan at times

MZero posted...

None of my arguments have to do with that though

Where are the examples of vibe checking SBell scum? Where are the examples of death being active but not taking hard stances? Why did you suspect Sultan and not even mention me? If you suspected Sultan for having lazy reasoning, you should have suspected me for "parroting" if that's what you really believe

There, three questions you can answer that have nothing to do with being around at deadline

This was never answered btw

what stellar self-defense by Hb

I believe the frustration, but I dont know if it makes him town. CFTW exists.

MZero posted...

end of day yesterday

Yes I KNOW

Then I read today and reevaluated my read based on hb's early reactions.

Because in mafia, our day 1 reads aren't always correct

MZero posted...

the fact that he's reducing the Hb case to an idle lynch when that's completely false makes me kinda want to do it

this coming from the guy who said

end of day yesterday

Keep in mind, he also said I was his number 1 scum all game and never tried to lynch me.

Sultan didn't fight at all. I think it's likely Scum decided to sacrifice him early

PoppyTheNinja posted...

i get that you want to believe he doesn't fail to hint at his target but it's entirely possible he planned to visit me and then changed his mind when sultan actually flipped mafia (considering he was defending him for awful reasons) and chose a different target

there are players this would apply to, but Corrik isn't one of them. He'd stay home before he would risk visiting a player he didn't hint at or believe they were Roshan.

PoppyTheNinja posted...

i think we're probably doing well so if i have to die at some point to clear out suspects though, that's fine. i'm pretty sure my role is completely useless now so it's not like me dying is the worst thing.

see now this is interesting when you compare it with this:

PoppyTheNinja posted...

like jesus christ i was fairly accepted town for obvious reasons but lopen pulls some conspiracy theory crap about corrik visiting me and suddenly there is all this completely illogical nonsense beig thrown my way. if this is the usual standard of reasoning found here...

PoppyTheNinja posted...

DUDE

CORRIK WAS VIGGED

HE DIDNT DIE FROM VISITING ME

(nice caps lock filter)

PoppyTheNinja posted...

I don't really want to spend my time beating back these arguments but I feel like I've made a pretty good case for why HB is mafia and this stuff about me is just people wanting to fijnd a "clever" answer rather than look at what's most likely, but I will try to dig up the posts from sultan toward me because I think if yo actually look at it rationally he did not speak to me like I was his partner

Poppy switches up from feeling it doesn't really matter if he has to die to solve the game because his role is "completely useless" to feeling outraged that he would die for...the exact same reason? I'd like to ask what prompted this switch of emotion. Also the "if this is the usual standard of reasoning around here" is kind of a cheap taunt.

BUT i will say i think the outrage feels more authentic than fake. and certainly this pet vig theory (see below) was a spur of the moment thought. It doesn't mean that scum can't have a spur of the moment "hey this sounds plausible and might save me" thought but i think it probably comes from town more often than it comes from scum. still in the process of thinking things over but i'm not far from moving off of poppy and onto someone else.

PoppyTheNinja posted...

there's a nightkill immune mafia which means there's a non-mafia kill to protect against

a bunch of people were dumping on corrik yesterday for doing nothing at the deadline and he was defending sultan for bad reasons

he probably was shot by the vig and that's why he died, i think it's possible he visited me now

sorry this post took forever to write i got completely lost looking for the quotes I wanted from Poppy after searching for a post I either made up or misremembered that wasn't there

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Keep in mind, he also said I was his number 1 scum all game and never tried to lynch me.

Literally have never called you number 1 don't flatter yourself

also it does actually make sense that if Roshan has a targetable kill he would use it on Corrik, the person who was obsessively talking about Roshan all day

Lopen posted...

Literally have never called you number 1 don't flatter yourself

I'd grab the receipts, but you'd just lie about it anyway

Isquen posted...

Trusty Shovel - 100 gold - Fancy yourself a bit macabre? Try this reusable tool! With this item, you may use a night action to visit a lynched dead player and attempt to claim an item they had. There are no guarantees you will be successful, however, and you may not perform any other night actions if you do this.

also this item seems awfully bad. N2 you buy shovel, N3 you use shovel. if the item you got can only be used at night that's your N4 action so you can't even use the shovel again until N5. And there's no guarantee you even get the item from the dead player in the first place! Even if you combo it with the mango you're still getting capped by 1 per phase action limits on all the items. Sounds terrible.

You can buy the shovel during day

Hbthebattle posted...

alright, first of all, I literally had work during the deadline. Dont be a jackass about this. Second of all, there is no fucking way a me/Kirby scum team is in any way possible or logical and you know that.

Read page 5 of topic 4 (posts 201 through 250)

You start with this and it escalates

It feels like real frustration that people are just lazily going for him and giving him crap for explanation he gave that he couldn't be around.

It came off as genuine to me-- he also tries to solve Corrik's target because that's what people should do, but is silenced by people grilling him about questions he already answered.

changmas posted...

also it does actually make sense that if Roshan has a targetable kill he would use it on Corrik, the person who was obsessively talking about Roshan all day

I think I'm the more logical target by far as someone who was also talking about roshan a lot. Third party needs mislynch targets to win and corrik set himself up well for it.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

You can buy the shovel during day

oh yeah, somehow i forgot to consider that. everything else still stands though

Lopen posted...

I think I'm the more logical target by far as someone who was also talking about roshan a lot. Third party needs mislynch targets to win and corrik set himself up well for it.

probably expected scum to kill you tbh

Btw Lopen, you brought up the setup stuff and how we could lose n2 a few times. Do you believe Sultan's elusive ability is a pointless ability then?

also, i don't think anyone has mentioned this yet, but Corrik could have been redirected

Very good point

ctesjbuvf posted...

Btw Lopen, you brought up the setup stuff and how we could lose n2 a few times. Do you believe Sultan's elusive ability is a pointless ability then?

I think town/Roshan probably have a conditional kill or a time delayed kill that can't fire night 1 that could potentially hit him.

An outright red herring passive wouldn't be out of the question either though, but proper balancing to me says a delayed ek makes the most sense by far

UltimaterializerX posted...

-I asked Han about his self analysis because I bodyguarded him last night. Action successful. I should be dead right now if Han is town (he is far and away the best town player in the game), but I'm not. I'm not dead, I wasn't poisoned, nothing. During the ward discussion, I brought Han up because I was hoping someone saw someone else visiting him besides me. Sadly, I think I'm stuck with a good old Rule 1 analysis. A scum team would be petrified of the dude, and we already have factual confirmation Rosh is.

I feel like this didn't get the discussion it merited because Ulti's interpretation suggests a 3rd killing action on N1.I'm thinking it might be a misinterpretation or something though? Ulti believes action successful means he bodyguarded someone who was attacked. But couldn't "action successful" just mean like, he wasn't roleblocked? (and Han wasn't attacked at all)

although scum redirecting him to another scum would be weird, so maybe not

That's not a very good point. Scum redirects Corrik to themselves? They didn't know what he was. Unlikely imo.

changmas posted...

probably expected scum to kill you tbh

I did too, and that's a big part of the reason I'm veering towards Han being town

If I'm alive, my read list was probably pretty bad outside of Sultan with respect to Lea. Meaning I had some as town that were scum, or some as scum that were town. Probably both. Han being town that just doesnt want to be cooperative with me because Im a big meanie would solve a lot of that.

Corrik targeting Kirby and being redirected makes a ton of sense, actually. But who would redirect him to scum? Does Roshan the 3rd party redirector make sense flavor wise?

Ulti's trying to argue that, since I wasn't killed night 1, I'm likely Scum.

It's really weak logic, but I buy the claim

ctesjbuvf posted...

That's not a very good point. Scum redirects Corrik to themselves? They didn't know what he was. Unlikely imo.

Town redirector maybe
But again, they might have confessed by now.

ctesjbuvf posted...

That's not a very good point. Scum redirects Corrik to themselves? They didn't know what he was. Unlikely imo.

could have had a day scan

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Ulti's trying to argue that, since I wasn't killed night 1, I'm likely Scum.

It's really weak logic, but I buy the claim

ohhhhh i see. i misunderstood what he was trying to say there

Lopen posted...

I think town/Roshan probably have a conditional kill or a time delayed kill that can't fire night 1 that could potentially hit him.

An outright red herring passive wouldn't be out of the question either though, but proper balancing to me says a delayed ek makes the most sense by far

Yeah, I could see it being in town's power ups or among third party too.

I will say I'm becoming more convinced that Poppy isn't a bad lynch the more I think about it.

Still rather we just kill Kirby and hope everything is more clear tomorrow.

Day scan and redictor really isn't the simple answer here. It'd also really suck for Corrik lol.

If town did something to Corrik's action, they speak up today. I'm going to assume town did not do that given no one has said it.

We're not considering lynching Poppy unless Lopen apologizes and admits he's been stuffing every single action I've done this game into a Scum lens because he's stubborn and too full of himself to admit that his ego is stronger than his analytical ability

I like how mzero is speculating the strangest setup here to explain away Corrik dying when the simpler answer by far is Corrik targeted scum

Sounds like a very scummy mindset to have towards Corrik

I'll even allow a "maybe" modifier

HanOfTheNekos posted...

We're not considering lynching Poppy unless Lopen apologizes and admits he's been stuffing every single action I've done this game into a Scum lens because he's stubborn and too full of himself to admit that his ego is stronger than his analytical ability

I apologize and admit I've been stuffing some actions you've done into a Scum lens because I'm stubborn and too full of myself to admit my ego is stronger than my analytical ability

That's as close as you're going to get. I'm not going to say nothing I've pointed out about you is scummy on an objective level-- Lea voted you too pal.

And Lea adjusted. I assume SBell has.

I'm not trying to be a leader this game. I'm operating more as a moderator/support.

You have railed against me as if I'm trying to shut you down when I've been trying to simply get you to support your thesis to make it a stronger argument. I honestly don't think you're Scum, because despite ego, I think you're willing to actually read that I'm not opposed to you.

I do think Sultan was bussed early enough. Not as early as you and probably death had looked at him, but his lynch was accepted hours before day end.

That in mind, what does that say about Hb?

If you can't make up we can just kill Kirby so it's not like it's a big deal.