Board 8 > Baseball Musical Mafia Topic 7 - Scum Strikeout

(+) Yeah! (+)

So claim time or pain time?

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Woof, my posts make the page load weird now.
Hey Death, explain this.

I may have forgotten some details that I said at the time. Its such a blur now
but..
If I recall correctly, the first sentence was in the middle of my big Lopen scan and his vote away from Hb was in the middle of his spree of changing votes.
So that was also a thought in the middle of my thinking process, if that explains it.

The second post came after and also when I had also passed the end of my day1 Lopen ISO and noticed that, when I checked his votes overall and not just in the moment, he went after Isquen the least (at least as far as I could see).

I simply considered that to be more incriminating than his one instance of unvoting HB.

VOTALS TIME FIRST
[2] SBell - (Ulti), Ben, Ulti
[1] IGCD - HB, (Ulti)
[1] HB - (Han), Sultan, (Ulti)
[1] Corrik - (Han), (Ben), (Han), Corrik, (Ben)
[0] ctes - (Ulti)
[0] Ulti - (Han)
[0] Ben - (Sultan), (Han), (Ulti)
[0] Death - (Han), (Ben)
[0] Red - (Ulti)

With 11 alive, it's six strikes, you're out. Inning ends 7 pm Eastern tonight.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

I only did a full-iso of Lopen to the point of his death. All things I'm talking about are based on those interactions, for the most part, and what I've seen along the way. I can totally post what I drummed up on you, and probably will. The thing is, your entire identity this game is based on a claim that, if it's true, maybe just wins the game? But I found two posts during this dive that made me think you're Town. I'll get to that soon.

Did you scan Death because he very deliberately called your claim bullshitting on day 2?

No. I did not scan him for that reason.

Obellisk posted...

So claim time or pain time?

##NoClaim

jk do it

Town Corrik self voting I struggle to believe

I voted Sbell today early in the day, but vote spread isn't a good way gauge "playing the game" either.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/8/4/9/AAOJ0pAADhjJ.png
For making a big in-depth post where Death specifically says "we should look at Hb more if Lopen flips Scum", Death sure does ZERO looking at Hb more.

Even pushes Isquen, and Ctes, more than him.

Thats wrong, I did look at HB.

I am pretty sure I already answered this before too.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Yesterday?

Im talking about the literal topic were in and events from like 3 hours ago real time.

yesterday was bickering
today was more of him going at you.

Ulti, sorry, but I would like you to respond to this. Not just because it frustrated me, but because I need to examine what you say your mindset was with this.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

But why? How? How does that catch Scum?
You caught me, the confirmed Town dying today, so we know it DID catch.
But how was it supposed to catch Scum? What was the play?
I am asking for details on this because you going back on your claim really threw my picture of the game off and I need to know why you would revert a claim that you, given what you've said, would know Corrik would counter?

HanOfTheNekos posted...

I don't want SBell to claim right now.

Balls, i'd like to do it since there are only about 5 hours left in the day and i do have kids and things.

You know what Corrik, fine. Pick a person and ill vote for them.

I still think this is the best call.

##vote: Hb

I dont wanna risk not getting it down. I'll still be around a while yet, but not at PC and not until deadline.

Ugghhhh fine. almost 5 hours left, I'd like to make my pitch for the day.

I'll explain it in a bit, but here's my pitch for the day. It pains me to do this but:

##Vote: No Lynch

Han is already dying... he wants to force Scums hand... And with all the possible powers we have lying in wait, there is a better chance to fuck Scum up tonight instead of accidentally losing 2 Town Powers opposed to the 1.

Han isn't wrong here.

Obellisk posted...

Han is already dying... he wants to force Scums hand... And with all the possible powers we have lying in wait, there is a better chance to fuck Scum up tonight instead of accidentally losing 2 Town Powers opposed to the 1.

Han isn't wrong here.

Thats pretty much what I was going to guess is the reasoning but I assume he also has a plan.

.... I dont think thats a good idea.

I'm already dying today. A mislynch would put us at Mylo.

I am going to, when I get a minute, outline what I think the plan should be going forward. It is not a plan that Corrik will like immediately, but if people are telling the truth then it is a clean plan.

But we're at 3/11. We can go into tomorrow at 3/9. Then mislynch. Then lylo.

I'm a bit concerned because it feels like ulti has no real genuine read of me.

UltimaterializerX posted...

If I rescind, scum will feel safe attacking me.

Im an easy mislynch and my role was protecting me. That was basically it. Very bad logic admittedly, but I am a very bad town player. I also tend to get my best reads when people attack me, so I came up with a plan to get people to attack me.

It kind of worked I think?

I believe this because I've been in similar situations where i feel scum has me all figured out and i hate that feeling so I try to make them doubt again.

As for no lynch, swell idea but I feel like with so much on the table we can POE at least one person to death. *glances at Sbell and Death*

It doesn't help that I know Corrik cant be depended upon for reliable scans, if I am guessing right what Han is saying.

..

Problem is you made Town doubt. You claiming not Princess completely throws the 3 hours of work I spent yesterday into a different light. It messes up a lot of my thought processes.

I even gave you an out beforehand so that I didn't run into this issue.

Also, the Masterplan(TM) as I had outlined puts us into a situation where you being treated as Claimed Princess is important.

The worst thing is, in my readthrough, I felt that Lopen was legitimately upset that you bounced on him for his first post. It read like actual annoyance. That's what made me think you were Town the most. But you rescinding on the claim feels like you just chose that moment to back off of a claim that would cause your death the next day.

Alright, so first, possible Scumteams.

Scenario 1: Corrik is a Day Cop/Detective
SBell and Death are Scum.
Ulti and Ben are hard cleared.
Ctes and Red and mostly cleared.
Last Scum is between IGCD and Hb.

Scenario 2: Corrik is Scum
This one is a little dicier, but:
Corrik is Scum
Ben is no longer confirmed, and neither is Ulti (though Ulti can still be Town in this scenario - his survival/death determines his fate anyway).
In this instance, we would have a free mislynch, which I would probably direct at Ben.

Isnt there a third scenario where Corrik is just lying as town?
The odds of that are getting smaller as time goes by, but still

UltimaterializerX posted...

Im dead tonight if town doesnt do its job so youll see it soon enough.

This is fine.

Masterplan

1. No Lynch. I'm dying, we don't need to do a lynch today. In fact, there is only one smart lynch, so it's better not to lynch today.
2. IGCD promises to target Ulti. Hb promises to target IGCD. If Ulti dies, mostly confirms one of the pair is lying. If Ulti lives but IGCD dies, then see point 4.
3. Lynch Corrik tomorrow. If he's Town, Scum will keep him alive and keep uncertainty about him as their wincon. So we take away their wincon. If Corrik is truthful, he gets another Dayscan off (preferably on like Hb), then you mislynch him, and the lynches for the rest of the game are set.
4. If Ulti is alive tomorrow and we don't autowin, then he's a liar. We still lynch Corrik first - if Ulti is Scum, Corrik is Scum. That is true at this point. So lynch Ulti after Corrik.
5. Good luck from there!

htaeD posted...

Isnt there a third scenario where Corrik is just lying as town?
The odds of that are getting smaller as time goes by, but still

If we commit to the Plan(tm), then Corrik lying as Town has to come clean before the day is over. In that event, I don't fucking care anymore. Get me out of here.

It's okay if you die, Ulti. If Corrik is telling the truth, we still win in that situation.

The only way we don't basically insta-win is if A. Corrik is Scum or B. Role madness is too mad

I fear the anticlaim mechanic could ruin this all somehow.
Then again if its only poison it would be too late for scum to make use of it.

Hmm..

If Corrik is a Day Cop, then Role Madness has worked in a way where we got super loaded on power and Corrik scanned very well and we win for it. Sucks for Scum, yay for us. But in this instance, Scum's wincon is keeping Corrik alive and convincing Town not to believe him.

What if Scum has another EK in their pocket?

I dont know that i like the idea of pretending we can role madness the game over.

Because lots of things imply this game is screwy and yet we haven't had anything screwy flip that wasn't redacted.

UltimaterializerX posted...

If the game comes down to whether or not Corrik is telling the truth, then were better off skipping to that part and just killing Stu.

Because it is possible that Corrik is Scum and is just pocket bussing SBell. That is the argument here. And a mislynch of SBell means we lynch Corrik means we have nothing after that.

I am providing what I think is the most airtight plan. If people don't want to go with it and go for lynching, then I won't argue too hard against it. I've put in loads of effort into this game where I have had very little fun. I will fully admit I haven't had a good game (unless I was just right about Ctes and Hb in which case fuck me). I should have fought against Plum's lynch. I should have not been playing XBC3 at yesterday's deadline and noticed when Isquen claimed for real, as well as trusting my earlier read on him.

I was sad when I learned I was poisoned. I wished I'd have just been outright killed instead. But I've put in the legwork on this day, and even in a game where I wouldn't say I've done well at all, I can at least die knowing I tried.

I fully expect to roll my eyes when I get informed on death, and that's okay. Go with the Masterplan(tm) if you want to follow a by-the-numbers airtight plan for solving the game. Go for SBell or Death if you trust Corrik implicitly.

Hbthebattle posted...

What if Scum has another EK in their pocket?

Gambler gun on D2.
Poison on D3.
I feel pretty strongly that EK's are the anti-claim mechanic. And whatever's next is weaker than a poison.

Leafeon13N posted...

I dont know that i like the idea of pretending we can role madness the game over.

Because lots of things imply this game is screwy and yet we haven't had anything screwy flip that wasn't redacted.

Role madness doesn't necessarily mean "these are absolutely crazy roles", it means Chris put a lot of power into the game and didn't worry completely about balance.

PunishedBen posted...

They should claim. And if anyone claims vanilla we kill em

I 2nd this

Leafeon13N posted...

I dont know that i like the idea of pretending we can role madness the game over.

Because lots of things imply this game is screwy and yet we haven't had anything screwy flip that wasn't redacted.

HBs role is kinda new I think
Ulti's princess claim is also madness, if you believe that

Interesting.

Don't like it. Of course.

Corrik7 posted...

Interesting.

Don't like it. Of course.

Of course. But if you're Town, you have to admit it's a pretty good play.

The best case scenario is of course to get everyone's claim today and try and lynch the Mafia Roleblocker.

If the roleblocker dies today, scum has no choice but to kill me and confirm every last bit of information I have said... another Detective scan would be devastating to them, especially with all claims on the board.