Board 8 > Baseball Musical Mafia Topic 5 - Get Low(pen)

(+) Yeah! (+)

htaeD posted...

Outside of mentioning Isquen and explaining his votes he focused a lot of time on his Changmas ISO. Considering how many notes Ctes made as cohost I can at least buy this as something he would do regardless of alignment. But he did spend a lot of time on this and says it could be useful to him even though Chang is dead already. It felt like a waste of time. Though it is not harmful in itself. But I do have to wonder if the Changmas ISO was just away to see if he could find reasons for scum to have shot Changmas directly, to make Lopen look good again.

This is not entirely true. I had ISO'd chang in the first topic and beginning of the second before the day began. I decided to still share those thoughts and made it clear they were written before day began. I also speculated that I hard a hard time believing chang was shot directly. At first I thought it made still be worth continuing, but Lopen made it clear he hadn't targeted chang directly, which seemed to hold true regardless of Lopen's alignment, so I dropped the plans to continue. I mean, for what we know, Lopen could've still shot directly, but I don't think he goes for the bus driver claim in that case.

htaeD posted...

When we go back there is of course also that opening post he also had his fake 'pissed off' reaction and his disappointment in Han. These reactions started out halfhearted but the more he talked to Han the more passionate he seemed to get. In general he seems to hate how Han behaved and complimented himself. He did get some nice barbs in there at least. Honestly the weird thing here is that if no specialing had happened it would likely have been him who died and not Isquen or Plum.

That wasn't faked at all. It was also something I had written before day began, maybe that's not all too smart, but I had time that day and I thought chances were low scum would shoot me after that end of day 1. I was definitely more frustrated when day 1 ended than when day 2 began, so maybe that's why it seemed halfhearted to you at first, since talking about it got it worked up again a bit.

As for the specialing, I said the same thing to Han, and he seemed to disagree, but I considered swinging the lynch entirely 69 out of 72 hours into the day to be just that, some other day I might not have been able to around, and all of it was based on stuff from the first topic, especially page 1. It's not as bad as Han getting lynched day 1 last game, but it was rushed.

I ain't feeling too well today and just woke up. Work in two hours, then D&D, so responses will be sparse.

Regarding ctes: again, I still have a nasty suspicion that he's town simply because of the vote roulette occurring at the end of day 1 - to say nothing of the accusers leading the train (and trying to call it off.)

Regarding hb: I have an unfortunate tendency to ignore a few people entirely until games thin out some. I am going to have to ISO this, but it might be too late for me.

Regarding Lea: Since the whole "rattle him until he slips" thing rattled me when I have nothing to slip, I'm going to be pointedly ignoring her for until day 3, since everyone seems to think she's town for some reason. Someone I don't suspect at the moment please point out why beyond a plausible sounding "nuh uh that's not Lopen's role" when refuting Lopen's call of Bus Driver. I find it HIGHLY unlikely that she would've targeted him with the focus she's going on me with.

Regarding red: while I appreciate you being the ONLY person who thought me town yesterday, I want to know specifically why you get that vibe. Is it something I said, or something you know?

Regarding Ben and Ulti both: One's claim I buy, one I haven't the slightest damn clue. Something about them both is reading scum/town but I can't put my finger on it - both of them, mainly, being unconcerned about the anticlaim mechanic just because it's "weaker," supposedly.

Regarding my action last night: Like I said, I wanted to check something on Ben. The only thing I learned from it was my ego will twist getting roleblocked into endorphins.

Posting to not lose notes, phone sucks.

Ulti's claim will sort it self out i wouldn't be to worried about it

I figured as much. Hence why my vote is still on Ben.

Rereading a bit more into hb at the moment.

Does Ulti really make that claim as Town, though? Does it make more sense for him to make that claim as a gambit to try to save Lopen for "two days", since Jailkeeper already died?

Just bouncing thoughts around.

Yeah I know thats what you said, Ctes, but I just like to say my possible theories out loud. The timeline of what you say here matches what I saw at least.

Does Isquen pull out the "roleblocked" result on Ben if he is Scum and Ben is Town? That would, what, sort out to be some sort of "hey Ben lied get him" play?

Does Isquen pull out the "roleblocked" result on Ben if both are Scum? Is that a scenario where Isquen would be encouraged to do that (allowing the argument that paints Isquen as Town for doing so?)

Ignoring Isquen as Town scenarios since they've been talked about

I've seen weirder from Ulti.

I am still bothered by Ben's "oops"ing this game, since he is extremely blas about the anticlaim mechanic if town.

Still reading into hb, and most of the antiplum rhetoric in topic 2 I agreed with, on day one (though, again, I ALWAYS think plum is scum until towncleared.) More interesting is how most of his views align with some I have on other people, notably Han, but there's some Ulti noise to sift through there.

Good timing btw Isquen, since I finished my readthrough of your day2 nex

Isquen started the day supporting the idea that maybe all the lynches of day1 were town because scum gave the shot away. Not illogical but also convenient for him.
I'd say if Isquen flips scum then at least one of Ctes and HB could be scum too since this theory of his defends both of them. But on a worse note he floated the idea that Changmas' journal was forged.I forget if he said this on day1 too, someone did.
He didn't treat it as a serious idea but its still sorta a way to make people doubt Lopens scumstatus. He seemed to think Lopen was still the best person to shoot on the very next page at least. But on this subject he is at about the level of Ctes.

Though he didnt stop anyone from considering other targets for Sultan. He did wonder why Red kept calling him town...over and over to the point of it feeling rehearsed. I suppose that does explain why he condoned Sultan shooting Red. Though he did it in an hands off kinda way that I didn't like.

Then there is the Ben thing which looks like the only reason he did this was to make himself look good.. I cant add much here if he admitted it himself.

A page later Isquen confuses how busdrivers work. Maybe Lopen wasn't a busdriver at all. But we will see that soon enough regardless. Regardless he seemed to have it out for Lea even after he realized that Lopens claim didn't implicate her. And this suspicion seemingly started mostly because Lea suspected him first. Then on the next day Lea practically has to remind Isquen that he suspected Lopen day1 and seemed to be forgetting about that now. His only response was to say it would look bad for Lea if Lopen flipped scum and it would look good for him. His smugness here bothers me a lot. And his logic for voting Lea because she 'is a busser' is pretty flimsy IMO.

He also just didn't post much in general. I suppose his schedule doesnt help there, but its all still very convenient. He just comes across as lacking passion if thats the right way to put it.

Now the format of this doesn't leave me with much of anything to ask Isquen directly. But I would still like to see a reaction to my read.

Dang Ulti your scummoning spell worked

I didnt want town to target me which is why I made it clear it would be waste. This post was me breadcrumbing my exact role and intentions

PunishedBen posted...

I only need town to trust me. Scum can think what they want

It was kind of a boring day 1 until the end. Possibly because I wasn't there. I am my own entertainment afterall.

I think Isquen is just gonna have to claim. If he gets nightkilled for it then great! Take a potential mislynch off the table.

And Red is town I have decided. Maybe I'd already decided. ##Unvote

htaeD posted...

*Snip*

Poor timing, actually. About to head out and be in observer mode based on the amount of people we have arrive today, until after 5 where I'll just flip back and "meh."

I didnt need "reminding" that I was on Lopen day 1. I made that very clear on day 1. I, also, do not have the memory of a goldfish. I do, however, live in a harbor of self doubt, hence the devil's advocate approach in a roundabout way to collar one of the two alleged bus driver targets without understanding how it worked. If Lopen was a driver. Which he wasn't.

Occam's Razor actually worked, whodathunkit?

UltimaterializerX posted...

You made that post topic 2, post 122, long after your initial post.

In fact.

"I am the Miller"

".......

I didn't read that

Well, I did, weeks ago"

No mention of being untargetable, no mention of "town just needs to trust me", nothing. Just a big "oops sorry guys" mixed in with an early Lopen vote.

I don't buy it, especially compared to how last game played out. You're a very smart guy. You know the current correct play with that role is to just claim it. Or hint at it given this game's rules. Whatever. Fact is you got caught, and this game makes much more sense reading it from a Scum Ben perspective.

Spacing information out intentionally so that its not all super obvious for scum to guess

PunishedBen posted...

I think Isquen is just gonna have to claim.

Yeah no you get nothing else beyond "can visit."

I think my current pick for most likely to be poe Scum in endgame is Corrik.

Like, he was trying hard to push Sultan into shooting one of the names he put forward.

UltimaterializerX posted...

I have a lot of respect for Ben's town play -- as in, I want to parrot him as much as I do Han or Chris. This is not reading like Ben's town play at all. We have a good comparison point, too. Compare how Lea (another A+ town player) claimed untargetable last game to Ben this game. It's basically polar opposites.

Also it is because the situation is polar opposites. We're in a game where i cant claim day 1, whereas Lea is encouraged to claim day 1. Furthermore, my role can still be nightkilled. Thus the only thing it can do is F over town who try to scan me, or possibly interfere with scum who try something similar. Thus, I needed to make myself look like i was hiding something from scum

I mean, Corrik was a proponent on shooting Lopen for awhile, so I don't think he's someone we should really be considering today, but it's totally within his Scumrange to open with more content-less babbling to suggest he has hard data that proves two people are Scum, then when it's not immediately picked up on, zero in on a Scummate mostly dead to rights.

Isquen posted...

Poor timing, actually. About to head out and be in observer mode based on the amount of people we have arrive today, until after 5 where I'll just flip back and "meh."

I didnt need "reminding" that I was on Lopen day 1. I made that very clear on day 1. I, also, do not have the memory of a goldfish. I do, however, live in a harbor of self doubt, hence the devil's advocate approach in a roundabout way to collar one of the two alleged bus driver targets without understanding how it worked. If Lopen was a driver. Which he wasn't.

Occam's Razor actually worked, whodathunkit?

Oh I mean you needed reminding on day2, not day1.
...
wait
How do you know Lopen was not a driver?

HanOfTheNekos posted...

I think my current pick for most likely to be poe Scum in endgame is Corrik.

Like, he was trying hard to push Sultan into shooting one of the names he put forward.

This is exactly who I am landing on as the actual scum and most interesting person to lynch today

On re-read, the only person he ever gave an actual reason for town or scum reading was on me. He says I'm town because of the PM questions that Lea asked, which he expressed some frustration about that that shouldnt be allowed. He has done the exact same kind of read on someone when he was scum, because he just cant ignore logic like that

htaeD posted...

Oh I mean you needed reminding on day2, not day1.
...
wait
How do you know Lopen was not a driver?

Clearly he's stolen my future seeing powers thus explaining why I'm so underwhelming this game

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]

I am pretty sure Sbell is scum

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]

It's Occulam's there, and I don't know if it's indicative of alignment either way. Though SBell loses points for feeling pretty absent today.

PunishedBen posted...

This is exactly who I am landing on as the actual scum and most interesting person to lynch today

On re-read, the only person he ever gave an actual reason for town or scum reading was on me. He says I'm town because of the PM questions that Lea asked, which he expressed some frustration about that that shouldnt be allowed. He has done the exact same kind of read on someone when he was scum, because he just cant ignore logic like that

The thing about Corrik is that he has had strong opinions this game but has done so little to try to convince anyone to his opinions.

If you all really want to play the listen to Ben game, then its Sbell and Corrik as two of the remaining scum and the last is a crapshoot most likely between the fated trio. Hopefully just Isquen as that would make the most sense.

Reason being, when I made this post I heard dead town chat audibly yell all the way from baseball heaven.

PunishedBen posted...

Honestly, I'm running out of people who I'd be okay with Sultan shooting. Which means I'm big time wrong somewhere.

Think I've had a reason to call everyone town now except Corrik and Sbell. And Death but that's likely a personal problem

And Sbell has been way too nice to me since I brought him up as potentially scum

When and why did Lopen join me on Hb?

UltimaterializerX posted...

Plum [6] - (Sbell), (Ben), (Ulti), (Lea), (Lopen), Red, HB, Death, Lopen, ctes, Ulti
ctes [4] - (Lopen), Changmas, Isquen, IGCD, Han
Isquen [3] - (Lea), (Han), (Ben). (Ulti), (Sultan),(Ben), Lea, Ben, Plum
Ben [2] - (IGCD), (Sultan), (Lea), (Lopen), SBell, (IGCD), Ben
Lopen [0] - (Ulti), (Ben), (Corrik), (Isquen), (Plum), (Isquen)
RANDOM [1] - Corrik, (Isquen)
Red [0] - (Lopen), (Lopen), (Ben), (Lopen)
Corrik [0] - (red), (IGCD), (Sultan)
Han [0] - (Sultan), (Isquen), (Isquen)
HB [0] - (Han), (Lopen), (Han)
No lynch [0] - (Corrik)
Sultan [0] - (Lea), (Sbell), (Han), (Ben), (Isquen)
Sbell [0] - (Plum)
Ulti [0] - (Lopen)

Everyone finished day one with a vote down, though if someone can fix Ben voting himself I'd appreciate it. That's a host error.

Point being, statistically, there has to be scum all over the lynches. There is scum in Red/Hb/ctes for that point alone, and ctes voting Plum at the very end instead of the guy he supposedly thinks is scum the most (Isquen) is a massive data point in the Scum Ctes camp. You know, just to answer ctes's question that he thinks I'm ignoring. And yes, you're right. Last game hit me hard. I have to learn not to back off of people I think are scum just because of being a softy.

As for my suspicion on Ben, this is behavior, his claim, Isquen catching him, PoE, and his voting pattern. Even assuming 2 scum among Red/Hb/ctes, there's a third floating around somewhere. Ben and Stu'd votes stand out the most in that regard.

Assuming one scum in Red/Hb/ctes, I could see a Ben/Stu scum team. Either one adds up to Ben being scum, hence my vote.

Ctes might have thought there was no way isquen was getting the votes and didnt want to splinter. I was certainty having those thoughts. You gotta look at how much votes moved in the last 5 minutes

UltimaterializerX posted...

An anti claim mechanic does not mean you're not allowed to claim. YOU CLAIMED IN YOUR FIRST POST, then went "oh whoops".

Now you're trying to explain it away with WIFOM arguments instead of an oops. So you did actually read the first post and lied the entire time.

I'm not as good as Han at catching people in impossible spots, but I'm still feeling pretty good about this one. You guys can kill this dude now.

Exactly.

UltimaterializerX posted...

You and Stu really stick out on those votes, Ben. Jeez.

Just kill him before me and we're good. (Hopefully)

I do think Sbell stuck out which is why I questioned him a bit for it at the start of today. I dont think there was anything wrong with me though. Han and lea both jumped to Isquen in the last 60 seconds and I thought there was finally going to be enough people and he was my most wanted out of the group. Stayed there because of that fact but I'll have you know I was trying to make a post about the trio being back together and I was rate limited until the end of the day. So it really all happened in the last minute

Is Ben lying in his first post of the game about claiming any different from ulti claiming Princess?

Also, point about the votals - that should be Sultan as the second vote on Ben, not Ben voting himself (I think).

Sultan ended day on Ben, Ctes was the other PRIMARY shot, Scum would probably expect me to be cocky and push at Ctes.

This is why, despite a Ctes lynch probably giving the most info, I would prefer to avoid it. It just feels like a trap.

Isquen flipping Scum would mostly exonerate Ben. Ctes too.

I started to lean against Hb being Scum for a second, but I forgot why.

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]


That just makes Hb look worse and Ben better.

PunishedBen posted...

If you all really want to play the listen to Ben game, then its Sbell and Corrik as two of the remaining scum and the last is a crapshoot most likely between the fated trio. Hopefully just Isquen as that would make the most sense.

Okay.

Also, yinz are back to just going for low hanging fruit that are likely town because you guys just fixate on perceived weaker players. Day 1 all over again.