Board 8 > Star Wars and Pokemon Mafia Topic 10 - Return of the DAY

(+) Yeah! (+)

Well here's a fun little thought summary post for everyone.

Does a scum kirby gladiate himself and two townies knowing that it could potentially blow up in his face, especially to save someone who he would have to know was in fact a flavor cop if he was scum? I doubt it.

Otherwise I don't have a read on VA because I don't really remember what he's done the last handful of days. Lea is ??? because I don't know what to think about the infinite loop logic, but if that's to be believed then chuck her in the scum bucket. Ulti I haven't liked for a handful of days and I still like SBell's logic on him. I've also suspected MZero for a handful of days (especially considering his notable lack of thoughts D2) and this hasn't changed even in light of his Isquen tunneling.

Red is the person that you can apparently confirm town still alive?

Town
Sbell
Scare
Chris
Hb
Red
Kirby
Me (hi)

???
ViolentAbacus
Lea

Scumspects
Ulti
MZero

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]


Well let's see

Scum had tracker - gets up
scum had neighbor - fools tracker by being a day action but also its meant to fool town by showing itself so... but yeah doesnt get up I guess!
Godfather ninja - gets up but is a tricky boy
stealer - gets up
???
???

So for town tracker to have much function I'd say at least one of those remaining 2 has to get up. Neighbor cant be caught by our motion scanners and neither can ninja. If I was a host who loves to ponder setup meta I'd say likely 1 of the remaining scum actions on odd nights never gets up (so not an action) and the other does, bringing it to half and half for hb and sultan to see them move.

So if that's the case, with 3 scum left if you didnt move night 1 you can probably only be 1 of the remaining scum slots, and similarly likely the same for n3, whereas if you have no such clear all 3 remaining slots are available to you.

some meta though, but it also just so happens that everyone in that bottom tier hasn't done a whole lot and death wasn't nice to confirm them like he did scare so yeah.

Great place to start asking, we'll see where it leads.

Anyway I have barely been at my computer since the start of day 4 to MASSIVE BURN OUT but I slept well and I am back at computer-sama, so time to see what I can dig up for Isquen, who is new and vulnerable to my back reads.

I am still immensely curious as to why backup poison wasn't used.

Leafeon13N posted...

I am still immensely curious as to why backup poison wasn't used.

...

*looks at Eevee's writeup*

That is... a question for post game I suppose unless Kirby is playing 5d chess with us.

So I did a kind return ISO of VA in topics 6-10 because he's an unknown quantity to me and while there admittedly wasn't much to work with or really get a read from, I actually found myself reading him to be a little more town from the following posts:

ViolentAbacus posted...

Another interesting thing I see from Topic 1 that is more interesting with context w/ Ben's flip is how both Ben and Isquen were mistaking Corrik for Ulti. Kind of weird to me that both made the same exact mistake. Could be a coincidence, but we'll see when I eventually get through all the topics.

I think someone else raised this point first but would a scum VA point out something that in a weird roundabout way helps speak to Ulti's potential innocence? And as a matter of fact I'm not sure if this weird mixup has me thinking differently about Ulti. Do two scum members mix up Corrik/Ulti if Ulti's on their side?

ViolentAbacus posted...

There was a lot of talk about Scare and Sbell being scanned and I only saw Lea really concerned about there being a godfather. With no one being Emporer Palatine on the flip I am convinced that there is one.

I'm probably giving too much benefit of the doubt here but I don't think a newbie scum would dare comment with such an accurate flavor read? However I will acknowledge this post could be read in the exact opposite way, hence my benefit of the doubt.

I am annoyed that me and lopen at the same time thought isquen's handwaving of corrik was odd and I didn't latch more onto ben's early defense of him. That's just, like, super annoying for me. Like yeah I get it, I did burn myself out a bit going ham but still. Although I did catch Ben on Isquen initially so that makes me happy.

Isquen mixing up corrik and Ulti has been pointed out but to reiterate that'd be weird if they were buddies. Not impossible but weird.

UltimaterializerX posted...

I have to use logic, because my brain cant random psychic force. MATHEMATICALLY, the following six players have been town too often lately. Thus, the force says scum.

Ben, Red, Scare, Isquen, Chris, and Sheep. You get a bonus name.

MATH ANALYSIS says the following players have been scum too often lately. Thus, they are town.

Stu, MZero, Plum, Death, Corrik.

I mean, damn math calm down. If Mzero is town the town list was perfect. All hail math.

Post 26 of topic 2 I posted a lot of stuff and said this

I think Plum is town. He is being more aggressive than he was last game and appears more sure of himself. His suddenly seeing Kirby's walls as less effective I feel is telling.
I think Ulti is town for his read of Plum. Ulti is harder to read for me when I start in the game because scum Ulti will act very differently if I am not present (as he did in ER mafia before I replaced in.) However, despite Ulti's blustering he is intelligent and I like when he makes good use of that intelligence. Seeing Plum's difference in style early and saying he was town for it is a good example of that.
I think Kirby is town for mindmelding my thoughts on Sheep and in general sounding similar to a townsiding Indy that he was last game.
I think Sbell is town for mindmelding my thoughts on flavor and also discussing the game with sultan in what amounts to a genuine way.
I think aggressive Sultan is town. He seems to be questioning the game state properly and is thinking out loud in a way that does not remind me of ER-Mafia.
Lopen is a town lean as I have seen this vote hopping as town. Lea is a town lean as well for their insight.
I am waiting to hear back (not that he is overdue or anything) from red regarding a death update in light of other topic points. Scare worries me because he is not making good points which is unfortunately in line with past town behavior for him but something I want to press and see corrected if he is town.

Corrik, Ben, JC, HB, Mzero, Death Isquen I believe have not been mentioned in this post. This is a self-reminder to engage more with them so I can have better thoughts about them. If any of you wish to reach out and engage with me on any of my points, it would be appreciated. I have a Borderlands gaming session with my partner tonight, but I will be around nonetheless.

I would be delighted if my entire town list here was right (I also don't think I ever lynch Lopen's slot if it is Lopen in it with benefit of hindsight) and that the scum team was 4/6ths in the 'need more info from' list. I am now officially rooting against mzero and and jc purely for my day one vanity.

No one really after or before Lea commented on Isquen much. I know everyone loves a busser but my take away is I think Lea just had a little bit of a rough start and had a little bit of bad timing to start the game with the sheep stuff. For Lea to be scum she would have had to bussed harder than anyone else did that we've seen so far outside of sheep on ben but that was less of a bus and more of a hopeful distancing I think.

Palp is literally the mafia godfather of the star wars universe. If he wasn't godfather I'd have rioted so no one gets points either way for that one

You are not claiming today because you are not in the suspect pool.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Assuming everyone was honest about their abilities, Lea is most likely to be a redirector.

?

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]


Except Isquen. Got to look 360 so you never see the knife not coming. Or something.

Why did Lea not act night one if she is role thief?

It's okay, I needed a lot of sleep too and I got it already. I do not go nearly as hard as I did day 1 and 2 (plus night 1 since I was talking to ben for half of it) if I knew I was preparing myself for six days of playing mafia. Really was confident I'd be dead start of day 2 but alas, here I am. Don't worry about it Ulti, as a flavor scanned person you really should be the least of our worries for today at least.

(With that being said R2D2 and Mewku for me are both valid. Now that I know people don't have to be their full names it does mean in fairness there is a great scum option for Ulti. But flavor meta sucks and he didn't lie about it which is a bonus)

Meanwhile let's update the Benlist OF DOOM

Chris - Town
Chang - Town
Sheep - Scum
IGCD - Town
Plum - Town
Scare - Town
Mzero
Kirby - (Probably) Town
Sbell - Town
HB - Town
ViolentAbacus
Isquen - Scum
Death - Town
Corrik - Town
Red
Lea
Sultan - Town
Lopen - Town
Ulti
Chaeix

Just something fun to tinker with to see what is up there.

Chaeix posted...

He was around early and iirc put some pressure on Kirby (and allegedly Isquen according to Hb) and since then has effectively said 'i had the same read as chris, ##sheep' and then posted beauty and the beast lyrics which Lea jumped onto.

This feels a little bitter in hindsight, JC. Were you upset for some reason that Sheep was getting votes?

Speaking of sheep and scum

Isquen posted...

Management left, freedom! Gonna catch up a bit more

I could buy multiple trackers, though. Didn't FFXIV have multiple, despute being smaller, or am I confusing that with motion detector? Are they the same?

INTERESTING. So that's a scum who was at first blush going 'multiple trackers eh, why not'

Ben just said 'oh Sheep is scum ok'

JC was fine to kill sheep once he claimed

Chang you are probably reading along still, calling sheep 'Wooloo' was a quality joke and I appreciate you.

DoomTheGyarados posted...

Looking back at sheep I think isquen is town, Sultan is town, hb is town ( ... yeah obviously but this was about reads) and Lea is scum at the moment along with Ben. I think I lean town on scare based on sheep posts. Will think more

Hm hm hm. This is a good reminder to myself that while my interaction reads are good to great they aren't perfect. My mzero notes have been good because the early interaction would be weird but really Mzero needs to provide a lot today I think. Sheep made Isquen look good at first blush too day 1, so its possible he could have made Mzero look good too.

144 VA votes Ben and says to not lynch the power.

Amusingly page 3 of topic 3 is almost entirely confirmed town people talking amongst themselves.

DoomTheGyarados posted...

This feels a little bitter in hindsight, JC. Were you upset for some reason that Sheep was getting votes?

Any sardonic tone there is more in relation to trying to rally votes with beauty and the beast lyrics and Lea jumping on tbh, adjacent bitterness is just collateral salt.

Surprised you asked me about that as opposed to when I actively asked whether there was really anything on Sheep outside the claim or something like that, which IIRC Kirby commented on at one point.

Chaeix posted...

Any sardonic tone there is more in relation to trying to rally votes with beauty and the beast lyrics and Lea jumping on tbh, adjacent bitterness is just collateral salt.

Surprised you asked me about that as opposed to when I actively asked whether there was really anything on Sheep outside the claim or something like that, which IIRC Kirby commented on at one point.

Oh both you and VA said that, topic 3 page 1. I remember. Did you have that post of yours on your mind, JC? I sense some defensiveness from you.

DoomTheGyarados posted...

Oh both you and VA said that, topic 3 page 1. I remember. Did you have that post of yours on your mind, JC? I sense some defensiveness from you.

Yes? I mean it was really the only time I offered anything resembling an opinion on Sheep

Day 2 of ctrl + f'ing isquen

Chaeix posted...
I've also become a Pokemon overnight, yay.

So what I'm wondering is whether or not reading into Sheep's questioning of Isquen's list yesterday should be read into. He was like 'Where are SBell, Mzero, Scare, and JC on your list Isquen?' and alluded to others not being included but the only person he didn't actually ask about is Changmas. Is there a reason he omitted Changmas specifically as a scumbuddy or was it just happenstance? Impossible to know at this point but it did stand out to me.

Scum Sheep questioned Scum Isquen's list and forgot about changmas (now known as town.) That list of forgot includes two confirmed town and two of our leading suspects today. Huh. That is interesting. I know the list had one scum in the top row (sheep), one in sweet boy (ben), what I thought to be none in !? (I think its just me and kirby alive from there) and the absent tier was red, ulti, and Abacus.

Arti posted...

Isquen specifically said he did not like the Sheep train, for whatever reason that was. It was kind of lost in the posts at the end of the day. Would like an answer for him why he did that, though I have one idea why he would.

Poor Arti. Reading Arti posts day 2 actively hurts because with benefit of knowing Isquen is scum he is painfully obvious town and I had that part right day 3 and I just got burned out day 4 and ergh. I expect perfection from myself sometimes and it's not a healthy mafia habit to have.

Isquen tells JC that his list was 'happenstance'

What's interesting about day 2 is Ben says he thinks the BG chose me, and Isquen says 'a SMART BG would have chosen you' to HB... but he is scum and this really, really, REALLY reads like they tried to kill me and he is fucking mad I am still talking lol. This does not matter, but it pleases me.

Does Isquen vote scum mate Ulti for claiming Mewtwo after voting Corrik... mixing up ulti and corrik for a second time.

hm. hm hm hm. That's an interesting question isn't it? Mistake or purposeful trap for town to fall into? Obviously Isquen was having some fun this game as scum trying interesting gambits and plays. Eh, a possibility I wanted to breathe into the topic so I don't ever take it to my grave but ultimately to this point Sbell and I remain in disagreement about Mr. Ulti

Page six of topic four features Isquen's miller claim and both Sbell and I swing and miss by saying Isquen is town there, oops.

Town
Plum
Corrik
Isquen
Sultan
Hb
Kirby
Death
Chang
Sbell (dependent on ulti being scum otherwise still ehh)

Scum
Arti
Lea
Ulti (literally in his established scum meta)
Ben

Ehhh

Red
AV
mzero
Jc
Scare

I think my town list is mostly right and stll I find myself pretty unhappy with this day2 list of mine lol.

Really we were all fine with Isquen day 2 it seems like so meh, meh I say.

And that's about it for ctrl f'ing isquen topic 4

Chaeix posted...

Yes? I mean it was really the only time I offered anything resembling an opinion on Sheep

JC have you ever heard of the cognitive bias 'curse of knowledge'?

DoomTheGyarados posted...

JC have you ever heard of the cognitive bias 'curse of knowledge'?

I just googled it and I'm not following

Note to self: review VA's post on JC when I'm not on mobile >_>

This is probably useless information, but fwiw, Sultan slept with me last night. I don't blame him since I could have been Scum Gladiator executing the nightkill, plus he had doubts on me for a while.

Although I gave her a hard time, I... agree with Lea. To her merit, she was right about Arti and Isquen. Her role is still wtf but since Red ain't telling us anything about his Hider role I'm more inclined to believe Lea at this point, assuming their roles truly can't coexist in this setup.

Ulti still isn't off the table, and Red doesn't have any tracking data on him for Star Wars nights. Just wanted to point that out, since we know there's a Role Thief out there keeping Hb blocked, and we know for a fact it can't be JC (though he could still be scum). I find it hard to believe they didn't use Role Thief N1 (but why they didn't use it on the tracker is beyond me, but unless scum has another Pokmon backup, this is the same team that chose to redirect me instead of using the poison).

So that just leaves Ulti, Red, and Mzero without an alibi for N1. Between those three, I'm far more inclined to lynch Mzero.

If we manage to kill all of the scum that's not Role Thief, then JC is definitely off the hook and probably Abacus and Lea, too. Which I mean ultimately brings down the scum list to Ulti, Red, and Mzero anyway. But my point is maybe we should leave the unmoved peeps until we catch our Role Thief.

Also, given the killing patterns, I think it's very likely that I will end up dead tonight. Should I reveal who visited Chris?

Chaeix posted...

I just googled it and I'm not following

Well, basically if you had read my post you'd have seen that it was mostly an isquen hunt so the only reason I saw your post was because it was on the same page as a noteworthy isquen post. So the fact that you were ready and primed to talk about the only post that really talked about sheep comes off as defensive in a bad way. We've got three dead scum and yet your mindset is stuck on a day 1 post you made that wasn't even brought up in the current conversation. It feels like the curse of knowledge that you are scum, you realize you look bad for that, and are trying to overcompensate by bringing it up again (note I knew you had made that post, I didn't even need to look to reference it lol)

Kirby, the question for you is do you think it will help us solve the game if you tell us who visited me night 2?

Like if you don't and you die tonight will you think 'fuck I should have at least said something'

DoomTheGyarados posted...

Well, basically if you had read my post you'd have seen that it was mostly an isquen hunt so the only reason I saw your post was because it was on the same page as a noteworthy isquen post. So the fact that you were ready and primed to talk about the only post that really talked about sheep comes off as defensive in a bad way. We've got three dead scum and yet your mindset is stuck on a day 1 post you made that wasn't even brought up in the current conversation. It feels like the curse of knowledge that you are scum, you realize you look bad for that, and are trying to overcompensate by bringing it up again (note I knew you had made that post, I didn't even need to look to reference it lol)

Kirby, the question for you is do you think it will help us solve the game if you tell us who visited me night 2?

Well you asked me a question implying that I was being protective of Sheep so I think it's kind of natural to think of the actual post that could have implied I was being protective of Sheep and then I just wanted to be a little cheeky with the comparison. If you took it as defensive then there's not much I can do about that.

DoomTheGyarados posted...

Kirby, the question for you is do you think it will help us solve the game if you tell us who visited me night 2?

I don't think it will help now, but it will help later in the game. However, I don't think I will live to see that moment.

Though, actually, if we want to meta the setup a bit more, the Pokmon side might be symmetric with three watchable roles and three non-watchable roles. We know that Redirector and Poisoner existed, and Back-Up is... somewhere in the middle. So perhaps my scan might actually clear somebody (and I can confirm it's not someone in the already cleared list, i.e., Hb, Scare, Sbell).

Kirby321 posted...

I don't think it will help now, but it will help later in the game. However, I don't think I will live to see that moment.

Though, actually, if we want to meta the setup a bit more, the Pokmon side might be symmetric with three watchable roles and three non-watchable roles. We know that Redirector and Poisoner existed, and Back-Up is... somewhere in the middle. So perhaps my scan might actually clear somebody (and I can confirm it's not someone in the already cleared list, i.e., Hb, Scare, Sbell).

You know what, it's day six and I only consider HB essential to live tonight for another glorious flavor scan, so go ahead and claim.

Chaeix posted...

Well you asked me a question implying that I was being protective of Sheep so I think it's kind of natural to think of the actual post that could have implied I was being protective of Sheep and then I just wanted to be a little cheeky with the comparison. If you took it as defensive then there's not much I can do about that.

Hm hm hm. Duly noted.

I would like everyone else to read my brief JC interaction and give their thoughts on it btw. Am I seeing things?

No one is ever here this game.

I have like half the posts in this game

anyway I am going to sleep because I am an adult who sleeps (please believe me)

Red be nicer to hb. No one likes a grump. Also be nicer to me while you are at it tbh. I've been chill this game.

Now answer my jc question I posed to everyone.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Hey Kirby, I have a question if youre here.

Bro just ask it. We're never online at the same time it seems lol

But hey, I've got a question for you. Got any clue who visited Chris N2?

Also I will comment on JC tomorrow since I got busy, now it's almost 2 AM, and I am tired

I was expecting more to happen while I was at work.

And yet you don't start with answering my question.

CURIOUS

Kirby321 posted...

since Red ain't telling us anything about his Hider role

I'm confused bythis because the only thing I haven't mentioned is n2 target.

DoomTheGyarados posted...

And yet you don't start with answering my question.

CURIOUS

I was mostly just walking to my car and then driving home. I was mostly just here in spirit.

As for your actual question, I'm not sure exactly what you are referring to, but I think I've got the gist of what you were going for. Someone having hard focus on their own posts doesn't seem all that unusual. I don't think the summary of events would lean me one or the other way on JC here(They are very much in the PoE though). Granted, this is all an opinion that does not involve in any way going back and reading whatever you are talking about.

(Right now, I'm kind of more curious what info people are willing to reveal, tbh)

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]


The fact that HB didn't have his result stolen N1 makes most of this pointless. All we can say for sure is JC is not the culprit because he didn't move N3. You and Abacus are very much in play, (as is Ulti regardless)

DoomTheGyarados posted...

Outside of Lea I agree with that tier list 100% minus Kirby who I think has to be town due to night action logic. If he is scum they always just redirect HB uselessly, kill death, and have him say he targeted someone else or something. Or they really overthought it and got their ninja godfather murdered.

Mzero it is an appropriate time for you to claim.

Pikachu and Chewbacca