Current Events > if I spend $100 a week on lotto, am I bound to win?

(+) Yeah! (+)

I just need 500k or higher. don't need a massive jackpot.

thx

This is a fool-proof plan, TC.

even if you spent a million, I still wouldn't like your chances.

You will be at the Lambo dealer in no time

I don't eat lamb

You might have like a 10%-30% chance of winning a $50k prize if you spend 2/3rd of your life doing it.

put that money into a Roth IRA instead and you'll basically be rich when you're 65

if you put $100 a week in BRK.A, and berkshire hathaway manages 20% returns even after buffett's death, you'll have $500,000 in about 25 years

what is a Roth IRA

what is a BRK.A

I don't want to keep working it's killin me

Mikea posted...

what is a Roth IRA

it's a retirement-focused account that allows you to put in "after tax" money (ie you've already paid taxes on it), while avoiding paying taxes when you withdraw the money as long as you're past the age restriction (57.5 i think?). for typical investments, you're required to pay taxes on the "capital gains" (ie selling price - purchase price), but with a Roth IRA, all of those gains are tax free.

Mikea posted...

I don't want to keep working it's killin me

amen. i've been saying this since i started my first job at age 14. work sucks.

https://youtu.be/wTLtToTGXrk

Giant_Aspirin posted...

it's a retirement-focused account that allows you to put in "after tax" money (ie you've already paid taxes on it), while avoiding paying taxes when you withdraw the money as long as you're past the age restriction (57.5 i think?). for typical investments, you're required to pay taxes on the "capital gains" (ie selling price - purchase price), but with a Roth IRA, all of those gains are tax free.

too much think required

I'll just marry some rich old dude ig

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/2/7/2/AAEqD0AADP1I.jpg

Something something, soy un perdedor...

The Popo posted...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/2/7/2/AAEqD0AADP1I.jpg

Tbh he's not wrong.

Though didn't he mess up by having the same numbers on each ticket?

No, but if you invest $400 a week in poker and actually focus on getting good, you will make a decent amount of money.

I'm guessing after about 1000 years.

The Popo posted...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/2/7/2/AAEqD0AADP1I.jpg

all hail King Mike

Save that 100 dollars every week. Much better use of that money.

Nazanir posted...

Save that 100 dollars every week. Much better use of that money.

Or investing it.

Inflation devalues money every day, but if you buy valuable things with money (stocks, assets, houses, etc.) then it will grow in value.

are you the consent guy

Technically yes, you are bound to win eventually. How long that eventually takes, though, might be longer than your human lifespan sooo

holy_bolt posted...

Technically yes, you are bound to win eventually. How long that eventually takes, though, might be longer than your human lifespan sooo

actually, I could go the entirety of existence without winning (I think)

simply playing over and over isn't a guarantee your numbers will eventually come out

Mikea posted...

actually, I could go the entirety of existence without winning (I think)

simply playing over and over isn't a guarantee your numbers will eventually come out

The odds never quite hit 100% but eventually get close enough it'd be considered a rounding error. I'd need to be on my home computer instead of my phone at work to do the math

theres a website that will run a simulation on lotto numbers

https://lottosimulation.com

spoilers: don't play the lotto

holy_bolt posted...

The odds never quite hit 100% but eventually get close enough it'd be considered a rounding error. I'd need to be on my home computer instead of my phone at work to do the math

This is incorrect. Statistically-speaking, lotto numbers are independent variables, and all competitions are independent of each other. That means that the success rate of one is independent of the success rate of the others.

So your chance of winning the lotto is exactly the same whether you play one time or 1,000,000 times, assuming you buy the same number of tickets each time.

Zanzenburger posted...

This is incorrect. Statistically-speaking, lotto numbers are independent variables, and all competitions are independent of each other. That means that the success rate of one is independent of the success rate of the others.

So your chance of winning the lotto is exactly the same whether you play one time or 1,000,000 times, assuming you buy the same number of tickets each time.

I love it when people do not understand statistics and try to correct me over it. Do go on

You're more likely to get struck by lightning twice in one day on a sunny day is what someone told me once

holy_bolt posted...

I love it when people do not understand statistics and try to correct me over it. Do go on

hey instead of needlessly condescending can you explain in layman's terms why he's wrong? idk math

Mikea posted...

hey instead of needlessly condescending can you explain in layman's terms why he's wrong? idk math

Still at work so I gotta do the simple version. Instead of lotto let's look at a much smaller number sample.

If you roll a 6 sided dice trying to roll a 1, the odds are obviously 1 in 6. If you roll it a second time the odds of the second roll being a 1 are still 1 in 6 but what are the overall total odds that you rolled a 1 across 2 rolls? Is it still only 1 in 6? What if you roll it 1000 times? Are the odds of you getting a 1 all those times still 1 in 6?

Of course not, but this is a logical fallacy TONS of people fall into. Just because the results are independent do not mean the aggregate odds of success over time do not add up. Your goal is to win the lotto once, and we'retalking about how long it would take. Just like the odds of rolling a 1 on a 6 sided dice over the course of 1000 rolls. No one roll might succeed but enough attempts, on average, should produce a success

No, you are not bound to win. But still, it'll be a fun ride. You might strike that mother fucker. Other people have, why not you.

If you want to never play the lotto again: https://lottosimulation.com/us/powerball

Zanzenburger posted...

This is incorrect. Statistically-speaking, lotto numbers are independent variables, and all competitions are independent of each other. That means that the success rate of one is independent of the success rate of the others.

So your chance of winning the lotto is exactly the same whether you play one time or 1,000,000 times, assuming you buy the same number of tickets each time.

Even if each play is independent, the odds of winning at least once after a given number of plays is determined by 1-(1-[Odds of winning])^[number of plays].

So if you were to play 50 Powerball tickets per week for the next 30 years, your odds of winning the jackpot with odds of 1 in 292 million even once during that timespan is 1-(1-50/292000000)^1560 = 0.027%

^so youre saying theres a chance...

Jackpot Lotto money lets go!

Like winning lotto numbers happens

Aint it like 1:20 win free ticket and so forth? So technically, you do win with like 4 numbers but you need 4+1 (mega,pb, whatever) to win over $100 or something. I dunno...

but that 0.027% chance is still a chance to win it all!! Lets go!!

Theres maybe, definitely a 100% certainty you dont win by not playing though logic though. Well then again. What are the chances to not playing the lotto but finding the jackpot winning ticket on the floor. What them odds like

A math professor once told me he plays $1 a week on the powerball because the odds of winning may not be high but the odds of winning a life changing amount of money are literally infinitely higher playing at all vs not playing, IE 0/292M is infinitely less than 1/292M. He said that every dollar after that has diminishing returns so he just plays the one ticket lol

Mezcla posted...

theres a website that will run a simulation on lotto numbers

https://lottosimulation.com

spoilers: don't play the lotto

That's interesting. I ran two 100k simulations, and the interesting thing is that with playing powerball I won around 20k, and without only about 10k. Still lost everything I had lmao.

Here's an example: Playing Pega-3 in Puerto Rico (Match-3), you can play 3 digits for $1, which is the same as any number from 000 to 999, that's 1,000 possible plays, if you want an exact match. The prize for an exact match is $500. So, if you play for exact match on all numbers, that's $1000, and you only get $500 back. Same for Pega-4 (0000 to 9999), prize is $5000. So the prize is always half of what you have to spend to play them all.

Yeah you can win millions for the price of $5,200/year

And remember that each time you fail, that just makes your next ticket more likely to be a winner

Laserion posted...

Here's an example: Playing Pega-3 in Puerto Rico (Match-3), you can play 3 digits for $1, which is the same as any number from 000 to 999, that's 1,000 possible plays, if you want an exact match. The prize for an exact match is $500. So, if you play for exact match on all numbers, that's $1000, and you only get $500 back. Same for Pega-4 (0000 to 9999), prize is $5000. So the prize is always half of what you have to spend to play them all.

Technically this isn't true for things with rollover jackpots like the Powerball though. Odds are 292 million but it often has grand prizes MUCH higher than that. Why shouldn't you spend $292,000,000 to win it for sure (aside from the logistics of buying 292M tickets)?

Cuz if someone else pulls the winning number and you gotta split the jackpot you lose your ass. Even worse if multiple people besides you win, and the bigger the jackpot the more people who play. I think they had a 7 way split for a huge jackpot a few years ago. Imagine spending almost $300M to win back like $70M lol

holy_bolt posted...

A math professor once told me he plays $1 a week on the powerball because the odds of winning may not be high but the odds of winning a life changing amount of money are literally infinitely higher playing at all vs not playing, IE 0/292M is infinitely less than 1/292M. He said that every dollar after that has diminishing returns so he just plays the one ticket lol

Math teacher thought the same tbh

Years later, i would play remembering the words similar to the post i quoted above. It became small talk with people i spoke with. Even goto a point where $5 gets you in lotto pool groups lol. I mean spending less than $20 for social interaction with a prize that change your life and others... where do you even start with talking about your imagination or being shared with others who have the same prize winning goal as you do.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9PSWTDhHGt4

whitelytning posted...

If you want to never play the lotto again: https://lottosimulation.com/us/powerball

i've been simulating powerball for a while since i saw this. so far i've spent around $734,500 (standard $2 play) and won $60,300. if i continue to win at this rate, i should $500,000 in winnings after spending just $6.1 million

The odds are the same no matter how much you spend on a ticket.

rivers posted...

i've been simulating powerball for a while since i saw this. so far i've spent around $734,500 (standard $2 play) and won $60,300. if i continue to win at this rate, i should $500,000 in winnings after spending just $6.1 million

Play powerball. Your winnings should be higher per dollar you play. You may even reach a million after spending $6.1mm