Board 8 > Elden Ring Mafia Topic 11 - Ranni's Ruse

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IfGodCouldDie
03/29/22 12:48:38 PM
#401:


Crescent-Moon posted...
Chang night 2.

Possible they just whiffed night 1.
Hmm.

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changmas
03/29/22 12:51:37 PM
#402:


ok we're not close to hammering although sheep very briefly was at -1

##Vote: IGCD

just updating these off of what Isquen did on page 1, not fixing the formatting because im lazy

Unofficial votals
Ratings
Good (2) - Sheep, Corrik
Bad (1) - Ben

Sheep (4) - (Corrik), (Ben), (Chris), (Isquen), red, Corrik, Chris, Sultan, (Isquen)
IGCD (3) - (Sheep), (Isquen), MZero, (Isquen), (Isquen), Isquen, Chang
Ben (1) - (Chris), (Sheep), (Isquen), IGCD
Corrik (0)- (Sheep), (Ben), (Crescent), (Chang), (Ben), (Sultan)
Isquen (0) - (Sultan)
Chang (0) - (Chris), (Isquen)
Chris (0) - (Sultan)
Sultan (0) - (Isquen)
red (0) - (Corrik), (Chris)
Crescent (0) - (Isquen)

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PunishedBen
03/29/22 12:52:03 PM
#403:


IfGodCouldDie posted...
Mostly, because of him taking credit for being messenger, claiming to know the split, and backing off the claim when it started to look like being lynched would be a viable option.
Meaning you think I'm scum or the messenger? If the messenger, I can't really blame you.

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Crescent-Moon
03/29/22 12:52:40 PM
#404:


Still not convinced the messenger isn't scum.

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IfGodCouldDie
03/29/22 12:55:31 PM
#405:


Crescent-Moon posted...
Still not convinced the messenger isn't scum.


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changmas
03/29/22 12:57:11 PM
#406:


Crescent-Moon posted...
Still not convinced the messenger isn't scum.

if my memory serves me i believe sbell actually said something to the order of "i was around but i was reading too slow and chris got the #instill before me"

there's at least something to suggest maf might have known about it beforehand and just got beaten on the jump.

then ulti intentionally jumps on the second one.

but their goal should be to convince everyone the message writer is town and not 3p in that case

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changmas
03/29/22 12:59:05 PM
#407:


beaten to the jump* and no pun intended

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Crescent-Moon
03/29/22 1:00:54 PM
#408:


changmas posted...
if my memory serves me i believe sbell actually said something to the order of "i was around but i was reading too slow and chris got the #instill before me"

there's at least something to suggest maf might have known about it beforehand and just got beaten on the jump.

then ulti intentionally jumps on the second one.

but their goal should be to convince everyone the message writer is town and not 3p in that case
Making town chase the ghost of a third party is a very powerful for scum and one of the reasons the meta is to be suspicious of random third party mentions.

It still makes more sense to me than third party telling everyone it exists.

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DoomTheGyarados
03/29/22 1:02:21 PM
#409:


For the record i don't think igcd is ever scum here and I don't endorse the lynch due to that.

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Crescent-Moon
03/29/22 1:05:14 PM
#410:


Personally don't think he's scum either. I also said right when he claimed that this doesn't have the feel of an IGCD scumclaim.

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PunishedBen
03/29/22 1:11:04 PM
#411:


It doesnt seem like any of the people voting IGCD really think he's scum. Which would include me. But i still think Sheep is even less likely scum. The question is, does IGCD flipping town mean people will just turn around and lynch Sheep tomorrow? Because Sheep is who i am protecting here.

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Crescent-Moon
03/29/22 1:11:12 PM
#412:


And on player meta I think if IGCD is the last scum left in this situation, he just rolls over and dies.

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DoomTheGyarados
03/29/22 1:11:40 PM
#413:


I will not stop voting sheep until game is over or he is dead

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Crescent-Moon
03/29/22 1:11:47 PM
#414:


PunishedBen posted...
It doesnt seem like any of the people voting IGCD really think he's scum. Which would include me. But i still think Sheep is even less likely scum. The question is, does IGCD flipping town mean people will just turn around and lynch Sheep tomorrow? Because Sheep is who i am protecting here.
IGCD flipping town makes it very likely a power claim is scum.

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DoomTheGyarados
03/29/22 1:15:11 PM
#415:


Votes:
[6] Scare: (Corrik), Crescent, Chris, Changmas, Marth, Ben, IGCD
[3] Crescent: (Corrik), (IGCD), (Isquen), (Ulti) ,(Ulti), (Corrik), (Sultan), Mzero, (Marth), (Corrik), Isquen, (Scare), (Bat), Corrik
[2] Ben: (Panth), (Chris), Sbell, Ulti, (Chris), (Death), (IGCD), (Sultan)
[1] Isquen: (Crescent), (Ben), (IGCD), (Ulti), Panth
[1] Shonen: Red
[1] IGCD: Death
[0] Panthera: (Marth), (Ben)
[0] Ulti: (Crescent)
[0] Mzero: (Ulti), (Chris), (Ben), (Ulti)
[0] Chang: (Panthera), (Ulti), (Ulti)
[0] Sultan: (Marth), (Ben), (Sbell)
[0] Bat: (Ben), (Chris)
[0] Chris: (Corrik)
[0] Corrik: (Sultan)
[0] Sbell: (Mzero) ,(Ben), (Marth)
[0] Death: (Corrik)
[0] Red: (IGCD), (Panthera), (Sultan)
[0] Marth: (Ulti)

Message ratings:
[9]Good: Ben, SBell, Chang, Shonen, Death, MZero, Scare, Isquen, Marth
[2]Bad: Panthera, Sultan

Ulti not voting and panth spell being split makes me all but certain the message writer isn't scum btw


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Crescent-Moon
03/29/22 1:16:50 PM
#416:


We're still likely dealing with a situation where the Scare lynch is pure.

That's what's so boggling about day 1.

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Crescent-Moon
03/29/22 1:17:54 PM
#417:


Actually given the top lynches are probably all town it's less boggling.

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DoomTheGyarados
03/29/22 1:20:14 PM
#418:


Ulti, sbell, panthera did not vote for each other at all day one. What are the odds they vote for their blocker?

Votes clear Chang and isquen as well as Ben snd Crescent very easily imo. Mzero is confirmed. That's already 5/10 players for me so a great start and then throw in Sultan who got voted and was ragged on a lot.

Leaves corrik/sheep/red/igcd. None were voted by Scum except Red but that sSnt a pressure vote just 'you are ignoring me'

Corrik looks really clean but yeah. It my mind scum can only possibly by any metric be in these 4 but corrik has echoed me a lot in thought processes

If it isn't one of sheep/red/igcd in that order of likelihood scum has done something very tricky

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Sir Chris
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DoomTheGyarados
03/29/22 1:20:43 PM
#419:


Does scum igcd feel the need to cap a town lynch there. Meh

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Sir Chris
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DoomTheGyarados
03/29/22 1:22:14 PM
#420:


I say we kill the vanilla and if it is wrong make roleblocker make choices and see what comes of it. Imo

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Sir Chris
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Crescent-Moon
03/29/22 1:22:39 PM
#421:


Ulti was the only of the 3 known scum to actually vote me, and he left because of my soft claim.

..Which runs in line with my theory that scum would try to fearmongering people into voting me rather than voting me themselves.

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Sheep007
03/29/22 1:23:24 PM
#422:


DoomTheGyarados posted...
For the record i don't think igcd is ever scum here and I don't endorse the lynch due to that.
I also don't think this is scum IGCD, but I wouldn't go so far as to say he is never scum. Literally the only thing he has going for him is the claim itself, which is a terrible one to make as scum. Everyone else I consider town based on their play, and he's essentially my top "scumread" right now through PoE. Everyone else has something else in gameplay or an interaction with scum that just looks really good for them.

...but I still don't think he's scum. It just feels really damn wrong. The confusion is kind of leading me back to Corrik, because I honestly think Corrik is the only player capable of creating a game state where he looks this good as scum. Probably along with Chris, but Chris just murdered Panth and has the benefit of being essentially cleared if IGCD is town. IGCD isn't a terrible lynch today, but him being scum feels off, and I have a feeling Chris is still gonna try and murder me tomorrow if I do vote IGCD and he flips town. Regardless of the power claim stuff, and regardless of the fact that IGCD being town all but confirms a bunch of us. Which probably means two dead town if IGCD is town. Maybe I'm overestimating Chris' power of persuasion and I should just try and confirm myself with the rest of the game, and ignore any future tunneling? But honestly, I'd rather try and catch scum.

##Vote: Corrik

I guess we're back here again huh

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Crescent-Moon
03/29/22 1:24:09 PM
#423:


Did Panthera actually have a good reason for ending the day on an Isquen splinter by the way?

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TheSultanOfSlam
03/29/22 1:24:10 PM
#424:


Crescent-Moon posted...
Still not convinced the messenger isn't scum.
If this is the case why does Ulti commit suicide?

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DoomTheGyarados
03/29/22 1:24:26 PM
#425:


Corrik would be higher on my list admittedly but I just nailed him as scum and I don't see it here

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Sir Chris
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DoomTheGyarados
03/29/22 1:24:52 PM
#426:


Guys messenger gave me a cop scan. It's probably not scum lol

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Crescent-Moon
03/29/22 1:25:13 PM
#427:


Sheep007 posted...
I also don't think this is scum IGCD, but I wouldn't go so far as to say he is never scum. Literally the only thing he has going for him is the claim itself, which is a terrible one to make as scum. Everyone else I consider town based on their play, and he's essentially my top "scumread" right now through PoE. Everyone else has something else in gameplay or an interaction with scum that just looks really good for them.

...but I still don't think he's scum. It just feels really damn wrong. The confusion is kind of leading me back to Corrik, because I honestly think Corrik is the only player capable of creating a game state where he looks this good as scum. Probably along with Chris, but Chris just murdered Panth and has the benefit of being essentially cleared if IGCD is town. IGCD isn't a terrible lynch today, but him being scum feels off, and I have a feeling Chris is still gonna try and murder me tomorrow if I do vote IGCD and he flips town. Regardless of the power claim stuff, and regardless of the fact that IGCD being town all but confirms a bunch of us. Which probably means two dead town if IGCD is town. Maybe I'm overestimating Chris' power of persuasion and I should just try and confirm myself with the rest of the game, and ignore any future tunneling? But honestly, I'd rather try and catch scum.

##Vote: Corrik

I guess we're back here again huh
Corrik is essentially confirmed not roleblocker unless he's a roleblocker ninja did you miss that

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DoomTheGyarados
03/29/22 1:25:55 PM
#428:


Also yeah corrik has to be ninja roleblocker

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PunishedBen
03/29/22 1:26:00 PM
#429:


DoomTheGyarados posted...
I will not stop voting sheep until game is over or he is dead
Then let's come back to this question tomorrow after you are dead!

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Corrik7
03/29/22 1:26:05 PM
#430:


They didn't vote you either, Chris.

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Currently playing: Control (X1)
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Crescent-Moon
03/29/22 1:26:15 PM
#431:


It's like every time Sheep votes, I feel better about killing him.

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DoomTheGyarados
03/29/22 1:26:24 PM
#432:


And given if Red is town, town only has one scanner full time... we don't have a ninja roleblocker tbh

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DoomTheGyarados
03/29/22 1:27:21 PM
#433:


Corrik7 posted...
They didn't vote you either, Chris.

Yes but I know I am town so I am hardly going to suspect myself sir

Also aethering panthera is more than anyone else but mzero has done for scum hunting among the living lol


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Crescent-Moon
03/29/22 1:27:54 PM
#434:


TheSultanOfSlam posted...
If this is the case why does Ulti commit suicide?
Ulti was the priority lynch today anyway.

I've seen Ulti sacrifice scum vanillas to scum kills before.

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Corrik7
03/29/22 1:28:12 PM
#435:


Sheep007 posted...
because I honestly think Corrik is the only player capable of creating a game state where he looks this good as scum.
Damn Chris. Talk about an arrow to your heart.

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Currently playing: Control (X1)
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Sheep007
03/29/22 1:28:49 PM
#436:


Crescent-Moon posted...
Corrik is essentially confirmed not roleblocker unless he's a roleblocker ninja did you miss that
No, I didn't. No godfather has flipped, and it's unlikely that godfather and roleblocker are different roles if we have a third party. All claimed scanning roles revolving around visits. Ninja is not just a possible scum role but a likely one, probably the second highest after roleblocker. I see no reason they can't be combined here.

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Corrik7
03/29/22 1:28:49 PM
#437:


You had a cop scan Chris? Not a track?

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Currently playing: Control (X1)
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DoomTheGyarados
03/29/22 1:29:31 PM
#438:


I will let it slide since I am town

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Sir Chris
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DoomTheGyarados
03/29/22 1:30:06 PM
#439:


Corrik7 posted...
You had a cop scan Chris? Not a track?

Yeah I got a cop scan not a BP. Of course I wouldn't claim BP if I got one lol

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Corrik7
03/29/22 1:30:23 PM
#440:


DoomTheGyarados posted...
I will let it slide since I am town
But do you think he actually believes that or he has to say it here to make his argument work.

Why does he seem to never go after you too?

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Crescent-Moon
03/29/22 1:30:47 PM
#441:


DoomTheGyarados posted...
Ulti, sbell, panthera did not vote for each other at all day one. What are the odds they vote for their blocker?
I could see a slightly undermanned (4/17) team playing the game defensively. Panthera's vote on SBell was late. They clearly thought he was scanned.

I just had this same thing in FFXIV in an undermanned team.

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TheSultanOfSlam
03/29/22 1:30:50 PM
#442:


Corrik7 posted...
You had a cop scan Chris? Not a track?
.... yeah he said Ulti moved....


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DoomTheGyarados
03/29/22 1:30:52 PM
#443:


Used it on ulti last night but then he jumped. Made me sad ngl

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PunishedBen
03/29/22 1:30:59 PM
#444:


Taking an action but not moving is exactly the kind of power a scum would want to claim if they were ninja, since IGCD's role exists.

Corrik full claim when?

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Corrik7
03/29/22 1:31:32 PM
#445:


PunishedBen posted...
Taking an action but not moving is exactly the kind of power a scum would want to claim if they were ninja, since IGCD's role exists.

Corrik full claim when?
Hopefully never.

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DoomTheGyarados
03/29/22 1:32:20 PM
#446:


Guys keep up with my gambit. I was faking motion stuff as my main role and instill was BP. But really I am a vanilla who got a one use cop scan. Please keep up ty

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Crescent-Moon
03/29/22 1:32:40 PM
#447:


DoomTheGyarados posted...
Yeah I got a cop scan not a BP. Of course I wouldn't claim BP if I got one lol
Personally never believed you on it partly for that reason.

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Corrik7
03/29/22 1:33:10 PM
#448:


What was the thought process of choosing ulti?

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Sheep007
03/29/22 1:33:12 PM
#449:


Corrik7 posted...
But do you think he actually believes that or he has to say it here to make his argument work.

Why does he seem to never go after you too?
I think Chris plays this completely differently if he is scum and just forces the game to swing another direction rather than murdering Panth. I think Chris is as good as scum but in a different way.

Also I'm not going after him too because he's essentially cleared if IGCD is town. Which I think is the case.

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Corrik7
03/29/22 1:33:53 PM
#450:


Sheep007 posted...
I think Chris plays this completely differently if he is scum and just forces the game to swing another direction rather than murdering Panth. I think Chris is as good as scum but in a different way.

Also I'm not going after him too because he's essentially cleared if IGCD is town. Which I think is the case.
Why is he essentially cleared if IGCD is town?

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