Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 335: Pins and Needles

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#301
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StartTheMachine
11/04/20 12:41:30 AM
#302:


How is the mail-in ballot count so huge in PA to begin with? They just implemented it early on a statewide level and had everything in place to execute that sort of system? So a majority of people chose to vote that way?

Jeez that would be nice if elections could just always be done like that. I had to wait in a 2 hour line in fucking Tennessee to vote for Biden. Would've been nice to just mail something in. But I would've been too paranoid of my vote not being counted in an election like this.

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Suprak the Stud
11/04/20 12:41:42 AM
#303:


UltimaterializerX posted...
Nate Silver is legitimately the biggest fraud in all of prognostication.

That isn't 538 though that's NYT!

He's just tweeting a picture and I was too lazy to crop a picture myself.

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UshiromiyaEva
11/04/20 12:41:46 AM
#304:


fuming posted...
I wonder if the needle is taking into account the fact that Trump has somewhat improved his performance with minority voters, with the only group he has gained being with white men, and that the margin he gains in those counties could be less than 2016. I don't really know how it works.

I don't think anyone has done any modeling for how the minority correlates with mail in voting. I doubt we'll even start seeing those models unless mail I'm become a new norm for 2024 as well.

If you mean just in general, almost all the regular voting has been counted up and Atlanta basically splash damaged blue all around itself, so....

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#305
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StartTheMachine
11/04/20 12:44:00 AM
#306:


269-269 would be fucking hysterical

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fuming
11/04/20 12:44:12 AM
#307:


UltimaterializerX posted...
If Biden wins Georgia (which will be very tight regardless), there is a path for him to win the election without PA.

It also very likely means 269-269.

my map will be vindicated, even if only through the electoral vote
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UshiromiyaEva
11/04/20 12:44:25 AM
#308:


Metal_DK posted...
georgia was the last state east of the mississippi called in 2016 fwiw.

It won't be called tonight anyways.

Again, completing of mail-in counting for GA is expected by Wednesday afternoon by the people saying it will be done EARLY. The actual, technical word on the street is Friday, I believe.

I think we'll know by tomorrow afternoon even if people don't want to call it, though.

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ACAB
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#309
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charmander6000
11/04/20 12:45:49 AM
#310:


Ten states remain uncalled

Let's assume Biden takes Arizona and Maine while Trump gets Alaska, North Carolina and Texas

To win, Biden needs either Pennsylvania + Michigan or Georgia

OR

Win three of any combination of Georgia/Michigan/Nevada/Pennsylvania/Wisconsin

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ChaosTonyV4
11/04/20 12:45:51 AM
#311:


UltimaterializerX posted...
Nate Silver is legitimately the biggest fraud in all of prognostication.

He is quite literally the only one with a shred of trustworthiness.

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fuming
11/04/20 12:45:55 AM
#312:


UltimaterializerX posted...
What actually happens in this case?

Trump likely wins because 26/50 state legislations are controlled by Republicans.
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Hbthebattle
11/04/20 12:46:10 AM
#313:


UltimaterializerX posted...
What actually happens in this case?
the house gets it... but each state delegation gets a vote

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Suprak the Stud
11/04/20 12:46:17 AM
#314:


Trump wins if it is 269-269. It goes to house of reps, but by individual states in the house of reps.

Yes, it is weird.

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Moops?
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xp1337
11/04/20 12:46:28 AM
#315:


StartTheMachine posted...
269-269 would be fucking hysterical
don't you dare speak this evil into existence

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Suprak the Stud
11/04/20 12:47:09 AM
#316:


"Your patience is great! Let's walk over here now."

Not exactly the end of the Biden speech I was hoping for at the beginning of the day but hey could be worse I guess.

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Moops?
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Dancedreamer
11/04/20 12:47:35 AM
#317:


StartTheMachine posted...
Jeez that would be nice if elections could just always be done like that. I had to wait in a 2 hour line in fucking Tennessee to vote for Biden. Would've been nice to just mail something in. But I would've been too paranoid of my vote not being counted in an election like this.

At the very least we need more polling locations like they do in Australia, and more options for people. Federalize it, and appoint a non-partisan commission.

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Suprak the Stud
11/04/20 12:47:43 AM
#318:


This is why Biden needs NE2. It is the only thing standing between us and chaos in certain scenarios.

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Moops?
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#319
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#320
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charmander6000
11/04/20 12:52:04 AM
#321:


Suprak the Stud posted...
This is why Biden needs NE2. It is the only thing standing between us and chaos in certain scenarios.

By my rough count it looks like Biden will win NE2.

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StartTheMachine
11/04/20 12:53:27 AM
#322:


Dancedreamer posted...
At the very least we need more polling locations like they do in Australia, and more options for people. Federalize it, and appoint a non-partisan commission.
Agreed big time with all of this, but I don't expect Republican voter suppression tactics to allow these things to happen soon. And it's seriously still so weird that each state basically has its own voting process for federal elections.

xp1337 posted...
don't you dare speak this evil into existence
Whoops didn't know that would mean a Trump win. Shouldve added the /terrifying addendum I had thought of tacking on at the end!

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fuming
11/04/20 12:53:51 AM
#323:


As I predicted, I believe Biden takes NE2 and Trump takes ME2. Arizona and Michigan are the big shockers to me.
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HeroDelTiempo17
11/04/20 12:55:50 AM
#324:


I can't believe we also have to deal with yet another wave of the "I don't understand polling error and probability so Nate Silver specifically is a liar" takes as the country crumbles

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Paratroopa1
11/04/20 1:00:56 AM
#325:


UshiromiyaEva posted...
Best Silver tweet tonight: he's so done with these Twitter replies.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323855158174978049?s=19
I want to make one thing clear here - the kind of map we're headed towards is NOT the kind of map that I gave 538's model shit for, ever. Georgia and Arizona blue with Florida and NC red, or anything like that - really, any combination only involving swing states - was nothing I considered weird at all. We're headed for a pretty normal map. The kind of shit I gave 538's model shit for spitting out was like, literally the map that had Hawaii and NJ red and Louisiana blue. That kind of shit seriously damaged the model's credibility. That is NOT what is happening tonight, even remotely.
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KamikazePotato
11/04/20 1:01:29 AM
#326:


HeroDelTiempo17 posted...
I can't believe we also have to deal with yet another wave of the "I don't understand polling error and probability so Nate Silver specifically is a liar" takes as the country crumbles
I need to become President so I can force everyone to play Fire Emblem and XCOM until they understand how fucking percentages work.

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#327
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Suprak the Stud
11/04/20 1:06:25 AM
#328:


I finally check the house updates. So far it is a wash. Dems took two republican seats and republicans took two democratic seats.

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Moops?
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StartTheMachine
11/04/20 1:06:47 AM
#329:


Welp as I go to bed, turns out my first post of the day was the most relevant.

StartTheMachine posted...
I have a feeling that today is just day 1 or what will be election week/month. So if you're anxious right now prepare to get well acquainted with that anxiety!

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banananor
11/04/20 1:07:33 AM
#330:


Trump is up 52 to 46 in Georgia, what are you on about?

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Dancedreamer
11/04/20 1:08:10 AM
#331:


KamikazePotato posted...
I need to become President so I can force everyone to play Fire Emblem and XCOM until they understand how fucking percentages work.

Or Dead by Daylight. 4% chance of escape!? HOW DO THESE SURVIVORS DO IT?

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This isn't funny Dean, the voice says I'm almost out of minutes!
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#332
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KamikazePotato
11/04/20 1:09:12 AM
#333:


banananor posted...
Trump is up 52 to 46 in Georgia, what are you on about?
Georgia has a lot of delayed votes because of reasons

Speaking of which, Georgia just took the lead down from 300k to 250k. 13% of total votes remaining to be tallied

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LordoftheMorons
11/04/20 1:09:17 AM
#334:


banananor posted...
Trump is up 52 to 46 in Georgia, what are you on about?
The needle has Biden as the favorite (57% chance to win). Lots of Atlanta vote out I assume?

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#335
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Suprak the Stud
11/04/20 1:13:04 AM
#336:


https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1323864823680126977

oh no

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Moops?
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LordoftheMorons
11/04/20 1:13:39 AM
#337:


NE-02's looking good

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323869854198304775

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pjbasis
11/04/20 1:14:03 AM
#338:


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Corrik7
11/04/20 1:14:06 AM
#339:


I see Tillis called as winner over Cunningham. Is this correct?

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MalcolmMasher
11/04/20 1:16:14 AM
#340:


Trump wins if it is 269-269. It goes to house of reps, but by individual states in the house of reps.

Yes, it is weird.


And the Senate would pick the Vice President. Not relevant in this case, as I can't imagine a Republican Senate picking Harris over Pence to serve as Trump's VP - but, if the Senate were controlled by Democrats, they could do exactly that.
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LordoftheMorons
11/04/20 1:16:31 AM
#341:


NE-02 called for Biden by DecisionDeskHQ!

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1323869812146245632

This is a huge relief since it kills all plausible (afaik) tie scenarios.

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TheRock1525
11/04/20 1:16:48 AM
#342:


So Biden saying he would work with Republicans, if he's elected he's gonna have to work with Republicans.

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_stingers_
11/04/20 1:16:49 AM
#343:


Corrik7 posted...
I see Tillis called as winner over Cunningham. Is this correct?

https://er.ncsbe.gov/?election_dt=11/03/2020&county_id=0&office=FED&contest=1374

Yessir

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ChaosTonyV4
11/04/20 1:18:55 AM
#344:


TheRock1525 posted...
So Biden saying he would work with Republicans, if he's elected he's gonna have to work with Republicans.



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HeroDelTiempo17
11/04/20 1:19:44 AM
#345:


TheRock1525 posted...
So Biden saying he would work with Republicans, if he's elected he's gonna have to work with Republicans.

Nothing will get done so I hope he likes executive orders

And I hope the 6-3 court likes those orders

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Suprak the Stud
11/04/20 1:19:50 AM
#346:


Oh cool so we can't even get a Supreme Court justice seated if Biden pulls this out.

Cunningham may your stupid shriveled penis stay forever cursed.

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Moops?
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KamikazePotato
11/04/20 1:21:08 AM
#347:


I don't think Cunningham ruined things. If nothing else, today has shown that voters don't care whether or not someone is a sexual offender or a deviant.

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Dancedreamer
11/04/20 1:21:50 AM
#348:


Suprak the Stud posted...
Oh cool so we can't even get a Supreme Court justice seated if Biden pulls this out.

"The American people have spoken. We can't have a hearing on a new Supreme Court Justice if the Senate is the opposite party of the President."

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This isn't funny Dean, the voice says I'm almost out of minutes!
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Forceful_Dragon
11/04/20 1:22:25 AM
#349:


KamikazePotato posted...
I don't think Cunningham ruined things. If nothing else, today has shown that voters don't care whether or not someone is a sexual offender or a deviant.

Do I need to remind you about the absurdly different standards that Democrats and Republicans get held to?

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TheRock1525
11/04/20 1:22:35 AM
#350:


Problem is that I think Cunningham helped tank Biden. Cunningham was supposed to outpace Biden and instead he got less votes.

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