Current Events > Donald Trump has a 69% chance to win Texas, per 538

(+) Yeah! (+)

BLAKUboy posted...

Another thing to remember is Beto and Texas Democrats have helped get at least 1.5 million Texans registered to vote this year. Trump won Texas by 800,000~ votes in 2016.

Yup, and Cruz only beat Beto by 200,000 votes

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COVxy posted...

Uhm, well, yes they can. But it's important to identify where in the methodology the bias comes from.

In 538's methodology the only bias that exists that I can identify is the numbers his model uses come from polls conducted by other people. So whatever failure in their methodology becomes a failure in Silver's model.

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ScazarMeltex posted...

In 538's methodology the only bias that exists that I can identify is the numbers his model uses come from polls conducted by other people. So whatever failure in their methodology becomes a failure in Silver's model.

and 538 grades their pollsters.

Like SurveyMonkey gets a D-

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

For example:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/texas/

scroll down and you can see the pollster ratings next to the pollster and can even weed out bad pollsters.

but the model includes ALL polls, regardless of quality. Now if the pollster ratings changes the impact a particular poll will have, I have no idea.

Trump would win Texas even if he molested a child on live television and wiped his nuts with the Texas flag. Texans are morons.

If Texas flips Trump effectively loses the election then and there.

There is no realistic scenario wherein Trump loses Texas but still wins the electoral college

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Choco posted...

>more than twice as likely as biden
>slightly favored
<_<

Yeah, 538 is trying really hard to explain their probabilities in terms a 5 year-old could understand... hence the fluffy language and cartoon furry mascot this year. They got a ton of shit from innumerate critics in 2016 and this is their attempt to correct their coverage. Instead of over-correcting the math, they've just added more uncertainty into the model and dumbed down the presentation on their webpage. If you want the adult version, you gotta listen to the 538 Model Talk podcast.

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Polycosm posted...

They got a ton of shit from innumerate critics in 2016

were there really that many people who felt that a 35% chance was actually a 0% chance?

ScazarMeltex posted...

In 538's methodology the only bias that exists that I can identify is the numbers his model uses come from polls conducted by other people. So whatever failure in their methodology becomes a failure in Silver's model.

MachineJaipur posted...

and 538 grades their pollsters.

Not only do they grade the pollsters, they adjust some of them too. For example, when there aren't enough good public polls, they'll sometimes turn to internal / campaign-run polls and adjust them. Data that is reliably biased by a consistent amount in one direction is still better than no data at all, provided you have a way to empirically adjust it.

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Texas, baby!

*Hoots amd hollers*

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If we're at a point where Trump needs to worry about Texas having the potential to flip, he's in serious trouble

Good news

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The-Apostle posted...

This means Trump is guaranteed to take Texas.

538 is a liberal organization, if you didn't know.

lol, tagged

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EngineerGamer posted...

were there really that many people who felt that a 35% chance was actually a 0% chance?

There people on this board who have said, without a hint of irony, than any two options are basically always 50/50.

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...that is their graphic? With the cartoon heads? I thought 538 was professional.

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