Current Events > Donald Trump has a 69% chance to win Texas, per 538

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MachineJaipur
10/11/20 5:32:28 PM
#1:




Nice(?)
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Choco
10/11/20 5:34:24 PM
#2:


>more than twice as likely as biden
>slightly favored
<_<
then again thunder always misses in pokemon

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BLAKUboy
10/11/20 5:41:26 PM
#3:


Choco posted...
>more than twice as likely as biden
>slightly favored
<_<
then again thunder always misses in pokemon
Like half of the outcomes are within 5 points.

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Lost_All_Senses
10/11/20 5:42:30 PM
#4:


Texas? Checks out

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Endgame
10/11/20 5:42:52 PM
#5:


He has a 100% chance to win Texas.

Texas won't even turn PURPLE for another decade. By the time it actually turns blue human society will be fucked over by climate change.
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CommonJoe
10/11/20 5:43:21 PM
#6:


Nice

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RetsuZaiZen
10/11/20 5:44:05 PM
#7:


Didn't need a poll for that

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tremain07
10/11/20 5:50:00 PM
#8:


It's Texas, we're the sate that actually has history textbook's that say the civil war was about states rights rather than slavery and even through slavery was bad it was great economically and that's why it was such a hard issue to completely abolish it. We're the state where liberals are often stereotyped as weak willed, weak minded, always sick, always alone and always complaining about something instead of actually trying to fix it and above all else there's been an extreme hatred for people not native to Texas lately, seeing them as liberals invading from California or in the words of some of my fellow "Texans" Commifornia to try and take our guns, abolish Christianity and force their agenda's on all of us.

The only place you'll find liberals is in cities namely Dallas, in the more spread out areas you'll see tons and tons of Trump signs, Lone Star flags on houses, sometimes the American flag will be there, too and a very obvious racial barrier among the population. No way is Biden winning a state like this.

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DarkChozoGhost
10/11/20 5:52:35 PM
#9:


That's nice. I wish he'd lose Texas but I doubt it'll happen

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dbf50
10/11/20 5:54:15 PM
#10:


People think Texas is turning blue because Beto nearly pulled it off against one of the most disliked senators in America, but it's still deep red

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Makeveli_lives
10/11/20 5:55:56 PM
#11:


Texas still got ANNA and sundown towns. They won't go blue in my lifetime if I'm being honest.

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creativerealms
10/11/20 5:58:52 PM
#12:


dbf50 posted...
People think Texas is turning blue because Beto nearly pulled it off against one of the most disliked senators in America, but it's still deep red
It is turning blue but it's a slow turn. It will be a red state for a while.

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Cornhuskers
10/11/20 5:59:26 PM
#13:


Mj Hegar for U.S. Senate !
#WOMEN
#VOTE
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Sayoria
10/11/20 6:04:25 PM
#14:


Endgame posted...
He has a 100% chance to win Texas.

Texas won't even turn PURPLE for another decade. By the time it actually turns blue human society will be fucked over by climate change.

Republicans are gonna just keep dying over their freedom to the coronavirus. Texas republicans won't live that long.

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EngineerGamer
10/11/20 6:05:14 PM
#15:


could be like south carolina where it reaches 45% blue but hits a hard ceiling on closing the rest of the distance
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BLAKUboy
10/11/20 6:05:45 PM
#16:


dbf50 posted...
People think Texas is turning blue because Beto nearly pulled it off against one of the most disliked senators in America, but it's still deep red
An at best 5-10 point lead is not "deep red".

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Machete
10/11/20 6:06:46 PM
#17:


My brain broke because of this. It's a paradox because it both is and is not nice.

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Smackems
10/11/20 6:07:13 PM
#18:


Nice!

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The-Apostle
10/11/20 6:09:03 PM
#19:


It's 538 we're talking about. The fact that the difference is that high means he's taking Texas

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hockeybub89
10/11/20 6:09:10 PM
#20:


But Trump winning in 2016 proved statistics are a leftist hoax, so why would I believe these numbers?

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MachineJaipur
10/11/20 6:27:39 PM
#21:


The-Apostle posted...
It's 538 we're talking about. The fact that the difference is that high means he's taking Texas
Per 538, Hillary had a 71.4% chance to win the election and lost

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The Trent
10/11/20 6:28:17 PM
#22:


don't mess with texas

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#23
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Christian RULES
10/11/20 6:34:28 PM
#24:


Nice!

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The-Apostle
10/11/20 6:35:01 PM
#25:


MachineJaipur posted...
Per 538, Hillary had a 71.4% chance to win the election and lost
This means Trump is guaranteed to take Texas.

538 is a liberal organization, if you didn't know.

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Shadowplay
10/11/20 6:35:28 PM
#26:


tremain07 posted...
It's Texas, we're the sate that actually has history textbook's that say the civil war was about states rights rather than slavery and even through slavery was bad it was great economically and that's why it was such a hard issue to completely abolish it. We're the state where liberals are often stereotyped as weak willed, weak minded, always sick, always alone and always complaining about something instead of actually trying to fix it and above all else there's been an extreme hatred for people not native to Texas lately, seeing them as liberals invading from California or in the words of some of my fellow "Texans" Commifornia to try and take our guns, abolish Christianity and force their agenda's on all of us.

The only place you'll find liberals is in cities namely Dallas, in the more spread out areas you'll see tons and tons of Trump signs, Lone Star flags on houses, sometimes the American flag will be there, too and a very obvious racial barrier among the population. No way is Biden winning a state like this.
True that Trump likely will win the state, but are you going to sit here and argue that your day to day experiences in Texas are worth more than rigorous number crunching? Remember what Stephen Colbert said about his and George W. Bush's gut?
https://youtu.be/2X93u3anTco?t=111

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#27
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Crazyman93
10/11/20 6:41:16 PM
#28:


dbf50 posted...
People think Texas is turning blue because they can't comprehend that the people outside the cities matter too.
ftfy

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MachineJaipur
10/11/20 6:57:37 PM
#29:


The-Apostle posted...
This means Trump is guaranteed to take Texas.

538 is a liberal organization, if you didn't know.
Numbers don't lie.
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The Trent
10/11/20 6:58:20 PM
#30:


ball dont lie

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ScazarMeltex
10/11/20 7:02:49 PM
#31:


The-Apostle posted...
This means Trump is guaranteed to take Texas.

538 is a liberal organization, if you didn't know.
Numbers don't have a bias. The way their statistics are compiled and simulations are run are completely explained in their methodology.

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harley2280
10/11/20 7:18:17 PM
#32:


ScazarMeltex posted...
The-Apostle posted...
This means Trump is guaranteed to take Texas.

538 is a liberal organization, if you didn't know.
Numbers don't have a bias. The way their statistics are compiled and simulations are run are completely explained in their methodology.

You gotta remember when you don't believe in science you think that numbers are a liberal hoax.
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ledbowman
10/11/20 7:23:49 PM
#33:


69

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COVxy
10/11/20 7:27:07 PM
#34:


ScazarMeltex posted...
Numbers don't have a bias.

Uhm, well, yes they can. But it's important to identify where in the methodology the bias comes from.

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Delirious_Beard
10/11/20 7:30:16 PM
#35:


538 had one of the most bullish models when it came to trump's chances in 2016. i have no idea why people continue to disparage them for that other than being very, very stupid

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Unknown361
10/11/20 7:30:18 PM
#36:


Endgame is a Trump supporter, he likes to shit on and discourage any one from voting Biden or Democrats, he desperately wants Trump to win to prove that he is right that Biden never had a chance or was never going to win. Just go out and vote like your life depends on it because it probably does.

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slmcknett
10/11/20 7:35:12 PM
#37:


Lost_All_Senses posted...
Texas? Checks out

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thebatz
10/11/20 7:40:23 PM
#38:


Donald Trump has a 69%

nice.

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MFBKBass5
10/11/20 7:40:49 PM
#39:


Lol yall do realize Beto was incredibly close to beating Cruz in the senate race 2 years ago, right?

Texans were THAT encouraged by Beto, a far left democrat. You dont think Biden will pull more moderates to the left? Beto fans will continue to vote blue.



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SodomInsane
10/11/20 7:44:27 PM
#40:


Delirious_Beard posted...
538 had one of the most bullish models when it came to trump's chances in 2016. i have no idea why people continue to disparage them for that other than being very, very stupid

People hate hearing anything that favors Trump. Even stuff like this where he wins Texas. You never see the reverse. People doubting Biden winning NY or CA but people think Texas is within reach lol.

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MachineJaipur
10/11/20 7:53:36 PM
#41:


SodomInsane posted...
People hate hearing anything that favors Trump. Even stuff like this where he wins Texas. You never see the reverse. People doubting Biden winning NY or CA but people think Texas is within reach lol.

Biden is +30.8 in New York.
Biden is +31.4 in California
Trump is +3.2 in Texas.

One of these things

is not like the other
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MachineJaipur
10/11/20 7:58:18 PM
#42:


Trump's largest margins are in

Nebraska 3rd District (Worth 1 Electoral Vote) where he is +46.6
Wyoming (Worth 3 Electoral Votes) where he is +39.5
West Virginia (Worth 5 Electoral Votes) where he is +30.1
Oklahoma (Worth 7 EVs) where he is +26.3
Idaho (worth 4 EVs) where he is +25.7

That's 20 EVs

California ALONE is worth 55 EVs
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Heero_Effect
10/11/20 7:58:28 PM
#43:


Good I hope he wins
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Antifar
10/11/20 8:04:20 PM
#44:


Their polling average has Trump ahead 1.5 points
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/texas/

That's very close!
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MachineJaipur
10/11/20 8:06:04 PM
#45:


Antifar posted...
Their polling average has Trump ahead 1.5 points
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/texas/
Yeah.

Which for a Republican, is awful in the state of Texas
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Taharqa_
10/11/20 8:08:11 PM
#46:


dbf50 posted...
People think Texas is turning blue because Beto nearly pulled it off against one of the most disliked senators in America, but it's still deep red

It only appears deep red because Texas is mostly a non-voting state. People just don't vote in large numbers here and when you have the usual Republican voter suppression efforts it can be a tall task for Democrats in statewide elections and the Presidential vote. The demographics is changing though, that's why Abbott is trying to mess with the mail-in drop boxes.

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#47
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Mesiah21
10/11/20 8:22:49 PM
#48:


I mean it's not like anyone really expects Biden to win Texas at all. Obviously not the state he needs to win the election. I mean it would be stunningly bad and embarassing for Trump to lose the state. The election would be over for sure if that happened.

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BLAKUboy
10/11/20 8:26:30 PM
#49:


Another thing to remember is Beto and Texas Democrats have helped get at least 1.5 million Texans registered to vote this year. Trump won Texas by 800,000~ votes in 2016.

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MachineJaipur
10/11/20 8:32:49 PM
#50:


Mesiah21 posted...
I mean it's not like anyone really expects Biden to win Texas at all. Obviously not the state he needs to win the election. I mean it would be stunningly bad and embarassing for Trump to lose the state. The election would be over for sure if that happened.
If he loses Texas, we're looking at a landslide loss Electorally
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