LogFAQs > #945746019

ScazarMeltex posted...

In 538's methodology the only bias that exists that I can identify is the numbers his model uses come from polls conducted by other people. So whatever failure in their methodology becomes a failure in Silver's model.

MachineJaipur posted...

and 538 grades their pollsters.

Not only do they grade the pollsters, they adjust some of them too. For example, when there aren't enough good public polls, they'll sometimes turn to internal / campaign-run polls and adjust them. Data that is reliably biased by a consistent amount in one direction is still better than no data at all, provided you have a way to empirically adjust it.

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