Board 8 > SaveEstelle/LeonhartFour in Different Houses: Bachelorhood's End Edition [SELF]

(+) Yeah! (+)

LeonhartFour posted...

Is he a fool of the new world?

I've assumed it was this to the extent I thought about it before throwing my hands up.

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I assume it has to do with the Fool arcana going through his journey that will bring a new world.

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Damn, need BotW to fall about half a point to get back my 50

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BotW looks like it's basically stabilized with three hours to go so it looks like that 50 is mine!

and I'm definitely gonna need it to counteract my bad finals prediction (especially if Witcher 3 obliterates Skyrim like some people are predicting)
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I'm sure my 51 is low, but I would be quite surprised to see W3 60/40 Skyrim or something.

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Which result is the main one that's driving the confidence in W3 anyway? I'm pretty convinced that the GoW match had a ton of SFF.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Which result is the main one that's driving the confidence in W3 anyway? I'm pretty convinced that the GoW match had a ton of SFF.

basically people assume Witcher 3 obliterates everything western based on its results against AC, ME3, and GoW, while being less impressive against Galaxy 2 and P5

so people expecting Witcher 3 to destroy Skyrim are calling for some type of western SFF because they aren't that far apart indirectly
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LordoftheMorons posted...

Which result is the main one that's driving the confidence in W3 anyway? I'm pretty convinced that the GoW match had a ton of SFF.

A lot of people would say P5 > DS and SMG2 > MK8, which helps Witcher.
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I get the latter, what is the first one based on exactly?

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I'd argue P5 and Dark Souls are probably relatively close to each other either way, which favors Witcher 3.

Galaxy 2 > MK8 would probably be the big one, but it's hard to say just how strong MK8 really is. Who's taking Stardew Valley over FFXIV and Uncharted 4? If you're not, then MK8 isn't that much weaker than Galaxy 2!
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Stardew is looking like the strongest indie game in the contest at this point, right? Is there a good contender for second?
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Mac Arrowny posted...

Stardew is looking like the strongest indie game in the contest at this point, right? Is there a good contender for second?

It's probably between Stardew Valley and Cuphead.

Cuphead ended up at 31.29% on Smash Ultimate (and it might be behind a bit of Xenoblade/Smash SFF) and Stardew ended up at 28.30% on Witcher 3.

So based on that, I'd say it's probably Cuphead, especially if you think there was any amount of SFF in Xenoblade/Smash, unless you think Witcher 3 takes Smash to the woodshed and I see no reason to believe that!
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LeonhartFour posted...

It's probably between Stardew Valley and Cuphead.

Cuphead ended up at 31.29% on Smash Ultimate (and it might be behind a bit of Xenoblade/Smash SFF) and Stardew ended up at 28.30% on Witcher 3.

So based on that, I'd say it's probably Cuphead, especially if you think there was any amount of SFF in Xenoblade/Smash, unless you think Witcher 3 takes Smash to the woodshed and I see no reason to believe that!

I fully believe Xenoblade had bandwagon power in that match that should eliminate possible SFF and maybe a bit more. I don't see why it shouldn't have.

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Keep in mind it was P4G that took out RDR and GTA5. Xenoblade wasn't the game directly responsible for taking out the casual favourites (Xenoblade still had 38% support after Overwatch). If you believe in bandwagons, it might have been P4G overperforming on Xenobalde. The second chance BOP pick for Xenoblade vs SSBU/SMO was SSBU/SMO winning with 60.29%. The actual result of 59.61% looks strange because we adjusted Xenoblade down after the P4G match, perhaps incorrectly.

Edit:
And I just saw KamikazePotato trying to suggest the same thing in The Show topic.
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Part of me wonders if the weeklong break killed bandwagon momentum for some of these games.

Xenoblade could have picked up a bandwagon too because I think it's more about the site not expecting you to get as far as you did more than just who you beat, and I'd wager Xenoblade and P4G had a similar number of brackets winning the division.

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aw yeah up to 18th in Second Chance now
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Up to #10!

I also see that TRE is 8 and Leon is 18

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huh Skyrim putting up a good fight

so hopefully my Witcher 3 low prediction will work out for me unless it destroys Skyrim after the freeze
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Yeah really hoping Skyrim can keep it close

(but not win... my main bracket is already dead so I'm with my second chance all the way)

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LordoftheMorons posted...

I also see that TRE is 8

Not for long! I have Witcher 3 with 57% here so my dream has come to an end. I'll keep a leaderboard position if Witcher 3 wins here. No clue what happens if Skyrim wins.
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My 51 prediction is going to be either very good or Skyrim will come back and Ill get a 0...!

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I think I still have a chance. It's only 3:22am in Poland right now. In a few hours they will wake up and bail me out. 56.50% is still in reach!
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With just the US my guess would be right on the mark!

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I can live with Witcher going for 55 or 56 here. Don't want to lose more than 5 points though!

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So do I take Witcher tomorrow and hope for a random rally to separate myself from moltar or just accept the tie

decisions decisions

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We know what the Kleenex way is

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I decided to start watching The Expanse with my fiancee, and we just finished season 1. She's definitely into it so far, but she was into Mr. Robot until season 2 killed her interest, too, so we'll see! Thankfully, season 2 of The Expanse is really good, so hopefully, she'll stick with it!

For me, it's interesting seeing all of this stuff with the benefit of hindsight and knowing where all of this is going.
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funstat time:

Dantezoid entered a fun entry and picked the top entry for every single match. Dantezoid has a score of 275. There are only 502 entries with a higher score atm

all but 502 brackets would have been better off by using no strategy and just picking the top option every match!

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Yeah, this was a very chalky bracket, for sure.

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X_Dante_X posted...

all but 502 brackets would have been better off by using no strategy and just picking the top option every match!

*looks at bracket*
"Score: 267"

=(

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I'm at 291 haha suck it dantezoid

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Wishing I had gone a little higher on Witcher 3 in retrospect but I'll live with a 47, I guess! It'll still put me ahead of the people who picked it to be 60/40, although I don't know how many did!

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Cold Steel IV to PS4 this fall, Switch and PC in 2021

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someday I should play those games

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If you start now you'll catch up before user SaveEstelle even starts Trails the 3rd!

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Leonhart4 posted...

If you start now you'll catch up before user SaveEstelle even starts Trails the 3rd!

To be fair you might be able to start in 2030 and say the same thing :(
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how many points is today worth

i'm hoping dantezoid passes a good number of people

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32 points, I think?

I mean, at least I got this one right so I won't be losing any more ground!

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I need to get back to Trails From Zero sometime soon, too!

This is why I don't try to play so many different games at the same time!

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I gave up on catching up on Trails in the Sky so all I know going into CS2 is that Estelle and Joshua are that young couple from Liberl that may have run into Phantom Thief B, Ouroburos are bad guys, and Prince Olivert got inspired by whatever happened there to make Class VII.

I hope that's good enoigh to keep going.

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I think it'll be enough to get you through the first two games. CS3 and 4 are where that knowledge of the other games is really beneficial, although I still enjoyed 3 a lot despite not playing the Crossbell games first.

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I just realized I messed up the slider for the final matches of the contest. I was wondering why I was so far behind. Got the perfect percentage on Zelda/Smash but I moved the slider in the other direction...

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Yeah, the sliders were confusing. I'd have definitely screwed all of that up if I hadn't looked above the sliders to see who I had in each match!

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46 points for me. Could be worse I guess!

BK_Sheikah00 posted...

I just realized I messed up the slider for the final matches of the contest. I was wondering why I was so far behind. Got the perfect percentage on Zelda/Smash but I moved the slider in the other direction...

I made this mistake a couple times but thankfully caught it in time

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The game you picked to win did light up when you slid the slider though.

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I kept realizing I was doing the sliders wrong when the only choices it was giving me for future rounds was between losers!


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Yeah, I only got Smash/Zelda wrong. And the finals I didn't give it second thought. So I didn't check that it said Smash vs Witcher

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looks like we're getting BOTW vs. MM as a bonus match

maybe I'll be a crazy person and use the results to craft GOTD1+2 X-Stats
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aw yeah up to 11th
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o ya witcher 3 moving my main bracket back into undeserved respectability by putting it back in the 95th percentile

with literally only 3/8 division winners right i am so bad at contests now

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