Poll of the Day > Covid-19 Growth rates are down to 5%

(+) Yeah! (+)

It's been dropping pretty steadily, because the number of new cases haven't been growing, mostly slightly downward trending.

So that's good.

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The advantage of people going out recklessly is that you reak peak deaths early.
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Does that mean a doubling every 20 days?... or what

Ifso, then that's tremendously good and under the mendoza line of 1.055 new cases per day

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Lokarin posted...

Does that mean a doubling every 20 days?... or what

Ifso, then that's tremendously good and under the mendoza line of 1.055 new cases per day

No at 5% it would double in less than 20 days since it compounds if it stayed at 5%. But it's been dropping.

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Either way, 5% is about a third of the danger rate... so if things stay like this for 2 more weeks we can consider the disease beaten.

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But isn't the daily positive rate still near 20%, so doesn't that tell us we should be testing more than we are?

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papercup posted...

But isn't the daily positive rate still near 20%, so doesn't that tell us we should be testing more than we are?

I'm going to be honest, I have no idea what that number means and, likely, neither do you.

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shadowsword87 posted...

I'm going to be honest, I have no idea what that number means and, likely, neither do you.

All it means is 1 in 5 tested every day is positive, but that number is consistent, so it's still spreading.

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We have no idea what the numbers actually are because most of the country still isnt doing tests for the virus

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Yeah we know that it's spreading from just the positive tests.
What it doesn't tell me if there should be an increased production or not. Are doctors asking for the test with everyone with a cough, pneumonia, or just every person who walks by? Would increasing the number of tests available help out? Is that even an issue? What is the ideal percentage of positive rates?

That's what I don't know.

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Yet the numbers here in Masscahusetts keep on going up.

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Judgmenl posted...

Yet the numbers here in Masscahusetts keep on going up.

Well 5% isn't 0%. Also 5% is US total. MA is 8%.

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It's also a weekend.
We have seen lower number of cases every weekend thus far.
And the moment people start going back to work it's just going to get worse.

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Lokarin posted...

Does that mean a doubling every 20 days?... or what

Ifso, then that's tremendously good and under the mendoza line of 1.055 new cases per day

A rough/quick way of estimating doubling periods is rule of 72. A 5% daily increase would mean a doubling rate of 14.4 days.

Kyuubi4269 posted...

The advantage of people going out recklessly is that you reak peak deaths early.

Except something like fifteen times more people died in the second wave of the Spanish flu. These arent peak. Peak happens when you think its safe.

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blu posted...

A rough/quick way of estimating doubling periods is rule of 72. A 5% daily increase would mean a doubling rate of 14.4 days.

Ok, so still not under the 1.055 goal, but pretty close

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AwesomeTurtwig posted...

It's been dropping pretty steadily, because the number of new cases haven't been growing, mostly slightly downward trending.

So that's good.

I dont mean to be a jerk, but this might be because the US has stopped drive-thru testing, which clearly will make the numbers drop.

that's not to say the other countries havent been lying about their numbers as well. Because they clearly have *cough cough* China *cough cough*


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papercup posted...

All it means is 1 in 5 tested every day is positive, but that number is consistent, so it's still spreading.

2 weeks ago they were saying 30% of the negative test results were actually false negatives. The numbers dont mean shit

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shadowsword87 posted...

Yeah we know that it's spreading from just the positive tests.
What it doesn't tell me if there should be an increased production or not. Are doctors asking for the test with everyone with a cough, pneumonia, or just every person who walks by? Would increasing the number of tests available help out? Is that even an issue? What is the ideal percentage of positive rates?

That's what I don't know.

From what I hear from my relative that is a nurse at a clinic, people can't request a test unless they are showing potential symptoms. There is not enough tests to let everyone that wants a test get one.

Now I have no clue about testing stations put up to give out tests though, there you may be able to get a test no matter what.

FrozenBananas posted...

I dont mean to be a jerk, but this might be because the US has stopped drive-thru testing, which clearly will make the numbers drop.

that's not to say the other countries havent been lying about their numbers as well. Because they clearly have *cough cough* China *cough cough*

That's a valid point, but I think someone needs to define how much testing is satisfactory. Like everyone says "we need to test more," which more testing is good. But no one is saying "well how much testing is enough?" The US has more testing done then UK, France, and a few other leading testing countries combined. Should we keep testing? Yes. But when do we stop or slow it down?

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FrozenBananas posted...

2 weeks ago they were saying 30% of the negative test results were actually false negatives. The numbers dont mean shit

If you don't trust any numbers, why even test?

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AwesomeTurtwig posted...

If you don't trust any numbers, why even test?

In not the one testing. Even the president wants to stop funding testing because 1. Its coming back with terribly inconsistent results, and 2. He hates the fact that its raising the US numbers, while every other country is covering up their own numbers. So he says fuck it

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FrozenBananas posted...

In not the one testing. Even the president wants to stop funding testing because 1. Its coming back with terribly inconsistent results, and 2. He hates the fact that its raising the US numbers, while every other country is covering up their own numbers. So he says fuck it

Trumps #1 goal in life is to make himself look like he is doing the best thing possible at all times, and making sure he gets blamed for nothing.

Also I don't know why you are putting "president" in quotes. He is in fact the president.

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Monopoman posted...

From what I hear from my relative that is a nurse at a clinic, people can't request a test unless they are showing potential symptoms. There is not enough tests to let everyone that wants a test get one.

Now I have no clue about testing stations put up to give out tests though, there you may be able to get a test no matter what.

I mean, that's also standard operating procedure.
There's hypochondriacs who I'm willing to bet are freaking out right now, and people who are becoming hypochondriacs.

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Hawaii here I come

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It's accelerating here in Nebraska.



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