Board 8 > Game of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 4

(+) Yeah! (+)

Uhhh

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Witcher will rise to heaven but it looks mortal this round with a more neutral opponent.

Im curious to see if God of War holds this percentage. its the big bracket fave and Fallout killed it with unregistered voters last round.

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transcience posted...

Witcher will rise to heaven but it looks mortal this round with a more neutral opponent.

Im curious to see if God of War holds this percentage. its the big bracket fave and Fallout killed it with unregistered voters last round.

New Vegas was rallying though, so I don't expect that kind of massive advantage this time.
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heres the real question: is this better for smash or odyssey

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transcience posted...

heres the real question: is this better for smash or odyssey

get back to me in about an hour
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sorry not allowed

(the real answer is its an SFF match and it doesnt matter, but I wont accept that)

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yeah Witcher 3 is going to wind up looking fine

I would've felt better about GoW if it hadn't though!
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Ther goes bracket

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I think both games are more or less hitting expectations. Im sure Witcher pushes for 60 once Marios killer first hour ends and God of War will probably hang out in this general range. the big thing here is that Witcher looks mortal (as in its not doubling Mario)

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Doubling Super Mario Galaxy 2 would have put it at #9 in the 2015 Xstats, just behind Super Mario 64, so yes it's probably a good thing for the rest of this field that it didn't do that.

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it was within the realm of possibility after the last two rounds though

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So, any chance SMG2 gets a better percentage than GoW does next round?
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Mac Arrowny posted...

So, any chance SMG2 gets a better percentage than GoW does next round?

I mean, there's a chance, but I wouldn't pick GoW to lose to ME1!
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Previous Results: Persona has an easier time against GTAV than it did against RDR. Of course GameFAQs would rank RDR over GTAV. Xenoblade also coasted to an easy win over Three Houses. Call it SFF or legit strength, Xenoblade is legit this contest.

Crew Predictions: 98/104

Next Round Thoughts: P4G/Xenoblade is interesting. Xenoblade has looked stronger going in, but I don't expect P4G to go down easy.

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Moltar: 96
Kleenex: 96
Leonhart: 92
transience: 92
Guest: 84

Crew Accuracy Challenge: Sir Chrisgets the point for P4G and Moltar gets the point for Xenoblade.

Moltar: 29
transience: 20
Leonhart: 17
Kleenex: 17
Guest: 17 (spooky96, Hbthebattle (3), Black Turtle, ctes (2), MetalmindStats (2), MechanicalWall (2), Kotetsu, pjbasis, Nintendogs, SuperNiceDog, FFDragon, Sir Chris)

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more guest spots open

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/78596579

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Round 3 Persona 5 vs. Sonic Mania

Moltars Analysis

Persona 5
Round 1 78.29% vs. Heavy Rain
Round 2 71.06% vs. Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag

Sonic Mania
Round 1 62.74% vs. Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of DANA
Round 2 64.84% vs. Super Meat Boy

Well, good news for Sonic Fans is that Mania did somewhat redeem itself after last round. 65% on an indie isnt great, but at least that means its safely above all those other fodderific indie titles.

The bad news is that its still like ten steps behind Persona 5. Persona is killing it in this contest so far, and if 4 can beat RDR and GTAV, then 5 is looking to be a pretty serious threat to some of the second-tier games in this bracket.

So yeah, I can see Sonic getting killed here. I dont even think its that far above Black Flag!

Moltars Bracket: Persona 5

Moltars Prediction: Persona 5 69%

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transiences Analysis

As you can probably tell from my writeups, I'm still reeling from the Sonic Mania/Super Meat Boy match, one that suggests that Super Meat Boy is weaker than Ys VIII. Super Meat Boy is one of the most well-known indies out there and Sonic Mania put a beatdown on it. It's probably more legit than I've been giving it credit for?

Nope. I will never trust Sonic Mania until it forces me to. Super Meat Boy started a string of indie embarrassments. Okay, "started" is the wrong term, since they've been bombing all contest. But the ones we thought were good, were actually just obscured by all the games in this contest being super bad. I'm not saying that there was SFF or anything in the Sonic Mania match, but that felt like an apathy vote where people sided with the known mascot character over the indie ones because who cares.

Persona 4 has shown us that the Persona series is legit, taking out two gigantic western games with legit fanbases on this website. Persona 5 is likely just as good as Persona 4, just with a game actually released this decade (not to mention a definitive edition of the game coming out a few weeks ago). P5 has had decent results throughout its life, whether in this contest or in GOTY polls. It's not weak. It should have no trouble putting Sonic Mania out of its misery.

transience's prediction: Persona 5 with 64.66%

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Leonharts Analysis

This is a very straightforward match. Despite a very surprising beatdown of Super Meat Boy last round, Sonic Mania might be the weakest game to make it to round 3. Persona 5 is definitely way out of its league. As with all of P5s matches so far, the only real questions are how high it can go and how high it needs to go to maintain its favorite status to win the division. Id definitely take Sonic Mania over Heavy Rain and I think Id favor it over Black Flag, but not by much, so high 60s or low 70s sounds about right here.

Leonharts Vote: Sonic Mania

Leonharts Prediction: Persona 5 with 68.55%

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Kleenexs Analysis

I dont know exactly where Persona 5 stands yet, but Ill tell you what I do know - Sonic Mania still sucks. It sucked in round 1, it sucked in round 2, and its going to suck in round 3. Ys 8 gets a consolation prize for being slightly stronger than Super Meat Boy, but given what weve seen on the indie games in this contest, thats not actually worth very much. I think Sonic is probably slightly stronger than Black Flag, but I dont see it being -that- much more, so Im pegging Persona for mid-high 60s here.

Kleenexs Prediction: Persona 5 with 66.50%

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Guests Analysis Janus5k

As I'm writing this, Persona 4 Golden is leading GTAV by about 400 votes. Whether or not this holds, that's a really good result for a game that once jobbed to Street Fighter IV. Persona has become pretty mainstream, and 5 is a big part of that. There's no question P5 wins here easily, but by how much?

Persona 5's most eye-catching result on this site is its GOTY showing where it got 25% in a poll with Breath of the Wild getting nearly 50% - especially after watching BotW utterly eviscerate FFXV that looks damn good. If P5/BotW actually happened, I imagine it would be something closer to 70/30 than the apparent doubling, but that's not based on much besides ZELDAFEAR.

So where does that leave Sonic? There aren't many old poll results for its fourpack, and the ones that are there suggest that none of the games are worth too much, but let's see.

Ys VIII has every reason to be the strongest Falcom game (it's modern, was well-received, is on several big consoles, and unlike Cold Steel 3 being the eighth game in its series doesn't make it massively inaccessible), but that's saying about nothing since everything else from them is likely pitiful. Tales of Berseria is sort of similar (big entry in a long-running but cult JRPG series), and that game by all rights should be a little stronger - this would peg Sonic Mania a bit below Hollow Knight, which... seems right? Maybe SM wins that due to brand recognition, but that doesn't always pan out.

Super Meat Boy isn't really this site's type of platformer (Celeste also does the "brutally hard" thing IIRC and that bombed), but as far as indie games go it's pretty darn big. I think it should be a step above VVVVVV, which puts Sonic Mania at worst around Fallout 4 assuming no funny business. Does Fallout 4 beat Hollow Knight or FFXV? The game was certainly legit in 2015 but then people soured on the series as a whole, so it's hard to say.

All that to say Sonic Mania could be around 20% on BotW, so if Persona 5 is around 30%, that gives us..

Persona 5 with 66.66%

blue streak speeds bye it'll never see it comin'
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Crew Consensus: Sonic drowns in the rivers in the desert.

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transience with the high pick for Sonic of course....... wait......

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man who knew transience was such a believer in Sonic Mania
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Persona 4 (2015g) VS Sonic 2 (2015g)

Persona 4 has a strength of 25.16.
Sonic 2 has a strength of 24.87.

Persona 4 wins with 50.58% of the vote!
A win of 702 with 60,875 total votes cast.

I dunno, I feel like 35% from Sonic today would be respectable, not something to be ashamed of!

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I'd be happy with 35% here!

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clearly Persona 5 will SFF Sonic into oblivion due to the P5 cameos in Sonic Forces.

Sharinnegan posted...

clearly Persona 5 will SFF Sonic into oblivion due to the P5 cameos in Sonic Forces.

That means some of the people who have been voting for P5 are in fact Sonic fans! rSFF incoming.

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wait, what?

maybe I'm lower on Persona than you guys

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MechanicalWall posted...

Yah but you just dumped points into a weapon and got a new move, no fuss. 2018 has eighteen layers of menus to sift through every half hour to make sure you're marginally better at making things dead

i'm sold

transience posted...

wait, what?

maybe I'm lower on Persona than you guys

I think you're the only one of us who thinks P5 = P4, yeah.

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I think a lot of vanilla P4, yeah. I think it might even be stronger than P5. that game was what made people so excited about P5 and it was the star game in the series for almost a decade.

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I'd love to see P4 beat P5. If it would happen anywhere, it'd be here.

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i really doubt that

this site skews towards nintendo more than anything else. and P5 has its main character as a top tier in smash, and a spinoff game coming to switch (P5S)

in a direct matchup, the non persona fans that happen to be nintendo fans will all align with P5.

Round 3 Portal 2 vs. Red Dead Redemption 2

Moltars Analysis

Portal 2
Round 1 65.29% vs. Tomb Raider
Round 2 62.36% vs. Kingdom Hearts III

Red Dead Redemption 2
Round 1 81.40% vs. Dying Light
Round 2 57.61% vs. Animal Crossing: New Leaf

This actually should be closer on paper than it seems. Portal 2 has looked very solid so far. Tomb Raider should be decent, and KH3, despite being miles behind KH1 and 2, does have some strength. For me, Portal is kind of like a weaker ME2. Its an older game in this bracket that has withstood the test of time, and a lot of voters still have a real soft spot for it. The new hotness isnt going to take away votes from it.

RDR2 put down a good number in R1, but that Animal Crossing number is weak. Its most likely because AC is just a beast right now, and even GameFAQs is living that New Horizons island life, so maybe that RDR2 number is actually good?!

Still, I like Portal here. It has been very consistent in that when two games look very close in strength, the one thats more of a GameFAQs game has the edge. Our site has long had a fondness for Portal, and there arent many things less GameFAQs than a Rockstar western game.

Plus, that 57% on Animal Crossing, overperformance for it or not, just isnt going to make me think it can beat Portal 2.

Moltars Bracket: Portal 2

Moltars Prediction: Portal 2 54%

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transiences Analysis

Red Dead 2's a big deal in the gaming world. Its release was a gigantic event that took over the gaming landscape for a good month. Its GOTY results are pretty decent, too, coming in third place to Smash Ultimate and God of War, two games that we presume to be in our top 10 this decade. It's probably about equal to the original Red Dead which is equal to a Persona 4 port. Is that enough to beat Portal 2?

Portal 2 is older, and maybe outdated, but we still really like it here. It has a lot of general gamer cred and it seems to do best against western games without a core fanbase here. Red Dead is one of those.

There's a best '2' game poll out there with both of these games, and while it doesn't tell us much, it does back up the conventional wisdom that Portal 2 is just a bigger game than Red Dead 2. Portal 2 even beat Half-Life 2 which seems crazy to me. I don't see any compelling reason to push back against the conventional wisdom here. The percentage is a little unpredictable, but I feel comfortable saying that Portal 2 has this. I'm actually really excited to see the percentage because the one upset we aren't talking about but should be is Portal 2 over Persona 5.

transience's prediction: Portal 2 with 55.81%

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Leonharts Analysis

This is one of the more debated matches of the round. I feel like Portal 2 has established itself as the favorite, but you cant count Red Dead Redemption 2 out. I was more impressed by what Portal 2 did by going for mid-60s against mainstream games than what RDR2 did in beating down a nothing game and struggling to pull away from New Leaf. I know Animal Crossing is a bit of a wild card this year because of the recent release of New Horizons, but eh, color me not impressed.

Plus, as weve seen lately from Grand Theft Auto V and the original Red Dead Redemption, you shouldnt count on a Rockstar game winning if you expect it to be at all close. I think Portal 2 is one of those games thats aged well and we remember fondly, and thats worth more than being a newer big name game.

Leonharts Vote: Portal 2

Leonharts Prediction: Portal 2 with 55.60%
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Kleenexs Analysis

This is a toughie. Based on 2015 stats, the original Red Dead would slightly edge out Portal. Is RDR2 stronger than the original? A good question, but Im inclined to say no. RDR2 has a recency benefit, but I think the original game is a bit more revered and would probably eke out a win head-to-head. So that puts both of these two games even closer to even, which doesnt help. Im not sure that either one is that much more impressive than the other. What Portal did to KH3 doesnt look amazing when you take into account just how weak KH3 likely is (given its joke of a performance on Disco Elysium), and 57% on Animal Crossing from RDR2 isnt much to write home about either, even when you take into account the AC fever that's been sweeping the internet this past month.

So once again, this is a lot of words just to call this pretty close to a 50-50 toss-up, which is what I think it is. You could go either way here and your logic would be sound. My gut is telling me Portal 2 for whatever reason (possibly because I dont like RDR2 very much!), so I guess thats which way Im going.

Kleenexs Prediction: Portal 2 with 50.75%

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Guests Analysis Luster Soldier

It seems Portal 2's path is pretty well set in stone. Last round, it put up an excellent performance on KH3 that has done absolutely nothing to hurt its chances of beating RDR2 next. I don't really see a scenario where RDR2 can win here unless the game just happens to be stronger than expected or a rally happens. A rally seems pretty unlikely as they haven't materialized for the other Rockstar games involved in other close matches.

Luster Soldier's Bracket: Portal 2

Luster Soldier's Prediction: Portal 2 - 54.42%
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Crew Consensus: Portal is the superior 2.

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huh, kinda surprised everyone went portal here

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It seems the most logical thing. Still Portal 2 so far? A PC game? What happened to Gamefaqs?

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Portal 2 came out on 360 and PS3 at the same time, no?

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LinkMarioSamus posted...

Portal 2 came out on 360 and PS3 at the same time, no?

It did but it is definitely most popular on PC

Indeed on GameFAQs about as many people own it on PC as people own the PS3 and 360 versions combined

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I think of Portal as a console game and Half-Life as a PC game. it's not entirely logical but Portal plays like a console game.

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Portal doesn't have a bunch of commands that need to be binded to the keyboard for optimal use

You only use like four buttons in that game

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Portal is that game everyone got when they bought the Orange Box to get Half-Life 2, which is a pretty well respected game here. I think in a way, it's everyone's first indie-like game (it's not an actual indie, but it's short and artsy so it feels like one). So it probably has a special place in people's 2000s gaming memories. And Portal 2 just improved from the first game in every way so it can't really be weaker than it.

I guess it takes an amazing offer like the Orange Box to get GameFAQs to like a puzzle game!

I'm not really worried about RDR2. like I said in my writeup, I think Portal 2 has a chance at Persona 5. RDR1 lost to P4G so I'm not too worried about RDR2.

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transience posted...

I think of Portal as a console game and Half-Life as a PC game. it's not entirely logical but Portal plays like a console game.

Well, Portal 2 was one of the first big games with PC/PS3 crossplay.

And yeah, even though this match should theoretically be close, I never really considered taking RDR2 here.
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Eh still I count Portal as a PC game myself. However as I have said in my contest analysis no more Portal games or Half Life game have come out in over a decade it seems. Is there a reason for that?

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Safer_777 posted...

Eh still I count Portal as a PC game myself. However as I have said in my contest analysis no more Portal games or Half Life game have come out in over a decade it seems. Is there a reason for that?

Valve became a Steam engine.
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LeonhartFour posted...

Valve became a Steam engine.

Yeah, there's approximately All The Times more money is running Steam than actually making games, although maybe the Epic Games Store will change that.

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Safer_777 posted...

Eh still I count Portal as a PC game myself. However as I have said in my contest analysis no more Portal games or Half Life game have come out in over a decade it seems. Is there a reason for that?

Portal 2 was simultaneously released on PS3/360/PC. It's as much as a console game as, say, The Witcher 3.
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Hmm...Okay I see. Still I do wonder why most people think it as a PC game first. I guess it has something to do with the first one right?

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People generally associate Valve with PC gaming.
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Oh I see. Makes sense.

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Play something I guess? Anything?

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