Board 8 > Game of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 4

(+) Yeah! (+)

transience posted...

feeling like both RE2 and BB beat ME2

Not feeling that at all.

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ME2 is doing better than I personally thought

This should be good enough for it to be safe

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I just try to picture a world where Horizon beats FE or Doom and Im not feeling it

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transcience posted...

I just try to picture a world where Horizon beats FE or Doom and Im not feeling it

I can easily see it beating Awakening. That game is absolutely nothing special. Horizon is also more of this site's type of game than DOOM.

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I would take Horizon over those pretty easily.

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maybe Im alone then

division 2 has baffled me all contest so why not another round

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transcience posted...

maybe Im alone then

division 2 has baffled me all contest so why not another round

Well, I actually respect Horizon and 2017 games as a whole, so I don't have that issue.

But I also have zero respect for Fire Emblem in general at the moment.

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RE2 looks good so far but Im not trusting any early result with how this started

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I am paralyzed in fear of posting about the match either way, because those two hours of votes are still going to come in at some point and I have no idea which way they would have went.

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Previous Results: Zelda. ZELDA! 80% in Round 3, ain't nothing stopping that train. DQ struggles with MonHun in the meantime. Turns out it's not all that far removed from the Sekiro's and Bravely Default's of the contest.

Crew Predictions: 92/98

Next Round Thoughts: Zelda scores what looks to be at least another 75% blowout.

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Kleenex: 91
Moltar: 91
transience: 87
Leonhart: 87
Guest: 78

Crew Accuracy Challenge: SuperNiceDog gets the point for Zelda, and Leon gets the point for DQ.

Moltar: 28
transience: 20
Kleenex: 17
Leonhart: 15
Guest: 14 (spooky96, Hbthebattle (3), Black Turtle, ctes (2), MetalmindStats (2), MechanicalWall, Kotetsu, pjbasis, Nintendogs, SuperNiceDog)

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I picked BB and all but would rather it won legitimately

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The rally was locked down, so it might lose after all.

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Looking like RE2 is going to wind up winning now, but wow, that rally really tanked ME2.

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Leonhart4 posted...

Looking like RE2 is going to wind up winning now, but wow, that rally really tanked ME2.

Master Moltar posted...

But one last thing. The adjacent match is RE2 vs Bloodborne, and we've seen BB rally against a game it was already comfortably winning against. Horizon seemed to get quite a bit of the spillover, which makes sense as it's a PS4 exclusive stablemate and people take that seriously (lol). IF that happens again and Horizon is even just a slight favorite for the spillover, that might make things a little tense.

I done called this. If I get the accuracy point because of this... lmao

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Round 3 Super Smash Bros. Ultimate vs. Marvel's Spider-Man

Moltars Analysis

Super Smash Bros. Ultimate
Round 1 82.98% vs. Tekken 7
Round 2 64.06% vs. The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds

Marvel's Spider-Man
Round 1 69.93% vs. Dead Space 2
Round 2 57.65% vs. Minecraft

This is going to be a snooze. Spider-Man pulled 2015 Halo numbers against Minecraft last round, which is nowhere near enough to try and challenge Smash. Thats not even be good enough to escape the doubling here, as Smash is one of the strongest games still left in this bracket.

Moltars Bracket: Super Smash Bros. Ultimate

Moltars Prediction: Super Smash Bros. Ultimate 70%

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transiences Analysis

I assume this match starts at the usual 8pm start time...?

We could skip division 3, honestly, because it has two very obvious winners. Smash Ultimate should put a beating on Spider-Man. It's just in a different class of game, popularity wise.

The only thing that makes me pause ever so slightly is that infamous Ultimate/God of War match where Ultimate struggled. Spider-Man isn't on GOW's level but it's a well-liked game with very little to hate. Ultimate should do some work here but this is the first real match we've seen Ultimate in, so it'll be fun to speculate.

transience's prediction: Super Smash Bros. Ultimate with 68.56%

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Leonharts Analysis

This entire day is all about seeing which game can flex the hardest going into the big showdown next round. Odyssey won round 1, but round 2 was kind of a push, although Ultimate was definitely facing the stronger game. Its probably facing the stronger game this time around, too. Spider-Man has put up two decent performances, but it hasnt looked good enough for me to say its not getting killed here. Im kinda conflicted here because I want Spider-Man to look as good as possible, but I also need Smash to look good going into next round!

Leonharts Vote: Marvels Spider-Man

Leonharts Prediction: Super Smash Bros. Ultimate with 65.37%

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Kleenexs Analysis

Both of todays matches are pretty damn straightforward compared to whatever nonsense is happening in division 2 currently. Spider-Man looked...fine against Minecraft, I guess? I still dont know where to rate Minecraft because the DOTA match is totally worthless. In any event, I expect Spidey to end up looking pretty bad here. As Ive said before, it seems like the type of game that folds against something with any modicum of strength, and, well, its facing Smash.

Kleenexs Prediction: Super Smash Bros. Ultimate with 70.50%

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Guests Analysis Sniperdog117

I just realized that I seem to always do the write-ups for Smash Ultimate. Kinda boring path until maaaaaybe next round, but it is cool.

SSBU failed to double ALBW, which actually held up pretty well vs its fellow Nintendo opponent. There was probably some SFF, which makes holding SSBU to 65% a really good result. ALBW is probably the third strongest game in its division, behind SSBU and SMO, which really makes its bracket position suck.

Oh ya, this match is about SSBU vs Spider-man. Both 2018 games! So I can look at the GOTY polls for reference uh, it was close with DQXI and RDR2 in the Best of Playstation poll. These polls are not the most useful, but we know those two games are not that strong. We do have actual poll data, which shows Spider-man going 57-43 with Minecraft of all games. Which is not this sites kind of game, so that is a bad look for Spider-man.

I feel like ALBW would beat Spider-man pretty handily, so I expect SSBU to have a better performance than last round.

Super Smash Bros Ultimate- 69%

Spider-man- 31%
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Crew Consensus: This spider gets smashed.

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web swing
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Hmmm...Something to consider if Bloodborne pulls this out is that it won't be able to rally next round, which would be to ME2's benefit.

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Round 3 Shovel Knight vs. Super Mario Odyssey

Moltars Analysis

Octopath Traveler
Round 1 53.29% vs. Undertale
Round 2 50.36% vs. Octopath Traveler

Super Mario Odyssey
Round 1 85.97% vs. Mortal Kombat 11
Round 2 71.31% vs. Devil May Cry 5

Time for the last indie to fall.

If Hollow Knight was equal to FFXV, which then went on to get only 20% on Zelda, I dont expect Shovel Knight to be in contention to beat Odyssey, even if it does get a 23rd hour rally like last time. A Mario game is also a much worse match-up for it.

Moltars Bracket: Super Mario Odyssey

Moltars Prediction: Super Mario Odyssey 70%

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transiences Analysis

Shovel Knight is probably weaker than Spider-Man? That will be the key to debating the top half's biggest match. I can't envision a world where Octopath beats Spider-Man (as it should have beaten Shovel Knight) but maybe I should cut that out because I've slandered Octopath every round and it hasn't worked out. At some point I have to give it its due.

Shovel Knight is weird in that it's kind of like Mega Man in terms of being off-brand Nintendo. I could see a top tier Mario game (by this contest's standards) doing a bit of work to poor little Shovel Knight. Mario should probably get a higher percentage than Smash here if it wants to be in contention, but we saw a similar match in Galaxy 2/Stardew recently and it failed to get even a doubling. Odyssey's better than Galaxy 2 (theoretically) and SK is probably worse, but it's possible that Mario lays an egg here.

transience's prediction: Super Mario Odyssey with 71.04%

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Leonharts Analysis

Believe it or not, Shovel Knight and Mario Kart 8 are the only seeds lower than 5 to make it to round 3! This has been a really chalky bracket so far (though that might be about to change), and today will be no exception. The indies largely got exposed last round, but Shovel Knight managed to barely survive thanks to a timely developer tweet. Its luck has run out here though, as Super Mario Odyssey is a pretty bad matchup for it. I think theres some potential for an overperformance here, but at the very least, Odyssey needs to outdo Smash Ultimates number here because I think most of us would take Spider-Man over Shovel Knight (but maybe not!).

Leonharts Vote: Super Mario Odyssey

Leonharts Prediction: Super Mario Odyssey with 72.18%
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Kleenexs Analysis

Shovel Knight sucks. Octopath stucks. Undertale sucks. Dragons Dogma sucks. That 4-pack was weak as well and Odyssey kind of destroyed both its first two opponents. It will do the same here.

Kleenexs Prediction: Super Mario Odyssey with 71.25%

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Guests Analysis Ranticoot

Mario Odyssey is the worst possible opponent for Shovel Knight. BotW and even Smash (which Shovel Knight is in!) would be better. Shovel Knight is a nice colorful platformer that takes heavy influence from a lot of classic Nintendo games, including Mario. Odyssey isn't the Mario game SK is inspired by but you'd be hard pressed to find a person that loves SK who does not also love Mario games. I think if SK can avoid getting tripled, that's....good?

Rant's prediction - Super Mario Odyssey with 74.45%
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Crew Consensus: Mario buries Shovel Knight

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Kleenex boxed in

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rude

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Actually we're all kind of boxed in. Everyone's predictions are within 4.5% of each other.

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I could see Shovel Knight getting eaten alive here. Games like that really need non-Nintendo opponents to look good.

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let's go 80%

today's match seems feels awfully mario/crono 2003! let's go 50.05%

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KamikazePotato posted...

I could see Shovel Knight getting eaten alive here. Games like that really need non-Nintendo opponents to look good.

I kinda think this as well, but how worried should I be about a dev rally jacking up a high prediction?
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If Yacht Club Games tries to rally like they said I could see Shovel Knight looking respectable.

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oh yeah I forgot about that

well, it won't matter in the long run if it's 69% or 64% or whatever

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Nah, I don't think it gets below 60% at the absolute worst, but I could see it making SMO drop quite a bit of percentage.

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I think Odyssey would be a hard game to rally against for Shovel Knight. They appeal to the same type of audience.
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Odyssey probably has an easier time rallying against Shovel Knight than the reverse! Not unless you get another direct developer tweet or whatever. I can easily see the Shovel Knight reddit going "I mean yeah our game is good but it's against Mario Odyssey".

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Yeah, but the developer straight up said they'd attempt again next round.

If it was just the reddit I'd find it almost completely negligible judging from last round.

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I'm sure they'll try, but I doubt it makes a lot of impact.
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70 seems low for Smash here, I think this ends closee to a tripling

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the bracket favorite always wins these matches

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transcience posted...

the bracket favorite always wins these matches

never had a doubt

n_n
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bloodborne more like bloodded

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this is definitely one that was decided by double votes!

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in other words the anti-rally measures do their job
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The real anti-rally measure is to take any votes that came from a reddit referral and ignore them. make it look like they went through, but not actually count them.

Without Reddit, there is no rally potential

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Smash always falls pretty hard from the opening

this isnt great. someone extrapolate the first 5 minutes compared to 2015 minecraft, if thats a thing. and thats best case scenario.

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transcience posted...

Smash always falls pretty hard from the opening

this isnt great. someone extrapolate the first 5 minutes compared to 2015 minecraft, if thats a thing. and thats best case scenario.

Puts Smash Ultimate equal to around MGS2 2015, assuming a lot of things (consistent Minecraft, not counting for rally spillover last round, ect)

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yeah, obviously not perfect. Minecraft is about the only thing worth measuring against in the top half of div 3 though.

I came into this contest thinking that feeding Smash or Mario to Zelda was a good thing, but Im starting to wonder if putting it in the bottom half of the bracket would have been smarter. Im definitely feeling like Witcher could beat Smash right now.

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transcience posted...

Smash always falls pretty hard from the opening

this isnt great. someone extrapolate the first 5 minutes compared to 2015 minecraft, if thats a thing. and thats best case scenario.

this puts Minecraft above Bayonetta

so either Smash SFF'd LBW (likely) or Minecraft is just stronger now
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more like trash bros.

wait I made that joke already


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also, glad RE2 won, but am extremely upset that I let Moltar get the lead on me in points

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I should start working on my Smash/Mario writeup now. it's gonna be a monster.

is the break between rounds 3 and 4?

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transience posted...

I should start working on my Smash/Mario writeup now. it's gonna be a monster.

is the break between rounds 3 and 4?

Yep.
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more R3 guest slots available

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/78596579

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Man, this division has been a snoozefest outside of Octopath Traveler and us freaking out about Odyssey's round 1 performance.

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I feel like this contest more than most others has good and bad divisions. divisions 2, 4 and 8 are good, and divisions 3, 6 and especially 7 are bad.

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Master Moltar posted...

Previous Results: Zelda. ZELDA! 80% in Round 3, ain't nothing stopping that train. DQ struggles with MonHun in the meantime. Turns out it's not all that far removed from the Sekiro's and Bravely Default's of the contest.

Crew Predictions: 92/98

Next Round Thoughts: Zelda scores what looks to be at least another 75% blowout.

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Kleenex: 91
Moltar: 91
transience: 87
Leonhart: 87
Guest: 78

Crew Accuracy Challenge: SuperNiceDog gets the point for Zelda, and Leon gets the point for DQ.

Moltar: 28
transience: 20
Kleenex: 17
Leonhart: 15
Guest: 14 (spooky96, Hbthebattle (3), Black Turtle, ctes (2), MetalmindStats (2), MechanicalWall, Kotetsu, pjbasis, Nintendogs, SuperNiceDog)

hahahahahahahahahaahahahahahahahaha @LeonhartFour I got a point. Vindication.

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