Board 8 > Percussion Mafia Topic 8 - Day 4 starts here

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HanOfTheNekos
04/13/20 9:00:37 PM
#1:


Scare has died! He was...

You are The Blue Devils, INDEPENDENT Survivor Cop. It doesnt matter what happens in the world of DCI - most years, you will win. Its pretty unlikely that you WONT win. I mean, youre The Blue Devils. Youre where people go to win. Boring result, but always a well-performed show. And youre pretty good at poaching marchers from other corps. You can see whos good and whos not.

Once per night, you can scan any other player in the game. You will learn if this player is TOWN or SCUM.

You win if you are alive when the game has concluded.

Still Alive
  1. Panthera
  2. Corrik
  3. Lea
  4. Tange
  5. MZero
  6. Death
  7. Sultan
  8. Uwnim
  9. DamionDL
  10. Crescent
  11. DYL
  12. Masterplum


Did not survive
XD1 - Ben aka Precariously-Held Crash Cymbals, MAFIA Hyper Bomb
XD1 - IGCD aka Conch Shell, TOWN Taunter
LD1 - Puns aka Art Blakey, MAFIA Messenger
LD2 - Red aka An Actual Percussionist, TOWN Flavor Cop
KN2 - Chris aka The Guy Who Shows Up Early To Help Set Up, TOWN Inventor
LD3 - Hbthebattle aka Percussion Cabinet, MAFIA Jack-Of-All-Instruments
MKD3 - BallaLeonHall aka Drum Case, TOWN Protector
KN3 - ScareChan aka The Blue Devils, INDEPENDENT Survivor Cop

It is now day. Day will end Wednesday at 9pm EDT. With 12 alive, it takes 7 to reach majority.

GO!

@Panthera
@Corrik7
@Leanansidhe
@DoubleTangicide
@MZero11
@htaeD

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HanOfTheNekos
04/13/20 9:00:47 PM
#2:


@TheSultanOfSlam
@uwnim
@DamionDL
@Crescent-Moon
@Dark_Young_Link
@masterplum

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Crescent-Moon
04/13/20 9:01:45 PM
#3:


...Survivor cop? Hm, expected Tange to die. Oh, I wrote another wall. I've been trying to stop doing that, but the way I replaced in

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Crescent-Moon
04/13/20 9:02:50 PM
#4:


....Oops

The way I replaced in mandated it for day 3 and it flowed from there. I'm pointing out something in particular from it first:

People I don't want to lynch today:
Tange, Scare, MZero, Death, Uwnim, Damion, Corrik (Corrik I'm adding reluctantly, but I feel the game doesn't add up if Corrik is scum.)

Surprisingly, Damion found this way onto the list, and it's because of a single post he made back on day 1. I'm specifically calling attention to this because it's in a short part of my wall that may be overlooked and I want it to be discussed.


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Crescent-Moon
04/13/20 9:06:56 PM
#5:


Well no one else seems to be here anyways, let's get this split up properly...

Ok so. Most of my initial reads were accurate. Panthera is scum. Plum is scum. HB flipping scum breaks open the first day. Hb voted Puns because momentum was starting to swing towards Panthera. Panthera pops in, says "oops I'm late", and votes Puns. The Puns vote is Panthera's only post anywhere near the end of the day. Puns refuses to claim, and refuses to actually fight against the arguments on him. Puns claims his useless role in the tiebreaker, while Panthera does not have a single post.

There's likely 1 scum left after them, the problem is I don't have a good idea of who it might be.

I was writing a short list of general thoughts by player. Plum's section was getting so large, that I'm removing him from that list and dedicating an entire section to him first. For the second day in a row, I'm immediately lambasting the same player slot.

Masterplum is scum. Let's not overcomplicate this. One of the last things Chris said when he was alive was 5tar was scum. The first thing I said entering the game was 5tar was scum. 5tar was by far my #1 scum read entering the game. Puns defended 5tar poorly the moment he got any pressure. Plum has not done anything to make me feel better about this player slot. He defended Panthera as the lynch leader. Panthera is scum. He defended Hb as the lynch leader. Hb was scum.

Plum's primary lynch candidates:

His #1 was apparently Sultan, who's at best a question mark and is at the very least a confirmed tracker unless Tange is also scum.

He said he was ok with lynching Lea despite it being a "10% chance of a scum gambit" and basically just tacked her on at some point. He was clearly more focused on Sultan than on her.

He outright shades Tange's claim, despite later being willing to lynch Scare, when Tange's claim is the primary reason for there being pressure on Scare at all.

In topic 7, he says he could be "convinced" to vote Scare as he's voting Sultan. No context is given why.

Then we get to Balla for "inactivity". This one is the worst of all. This is from topic 6:

Panthera says DYL and Balla are the likeliest to be scum based on play alone in Post #386.

Post #395, Plum asks for a case on Balla. Plum is given an outline by Panthera in the very next post that Balla has not done much overall, and MZero quickly brings up that Balla was scanned town (More town points for MZero!). Plum does not ask about DYL at all.

Post #438, Nothing else has been said about Balla at this point, and Plum is willing to lynch Balla for "inactivity". He cherry picks exactly what he wants to hear from one post by Panthera. I immediately criticized this, as Balla was better than DYL and no worse than Panthera. Plum did not respond to me.

Plum's play does not add up to town play at all. 5tar's didn't either. The one and only thing this slot has going for it is "Wind Chimes" makes total sense as a flavor for "motion detector", and that's not nearly enough.

Now back to the list:

Scare is probably town that Hb was trying to get lynched.

Panthera is scum. My initial read was right. Corrik is right. The lingering questions I'm left with: Does Panthera bus DYL? Does Corrik bus Panthera? Bussing Panthera here seems kind of insane.

Corrik I don't trust (he is impossible to ever trust), but I feel like Plum/Panthera/Corrik doesn't make sense as a scumteam.

Lea hovers between useless and intentionally anti-town, but has an innocent scan on her.

Tange is probably getting shot tonight after the obvious doctor got himself modkilled. It is possible he could be scum, but it would require him acting very out of character from everything I've ever seen from him.

MZero is a probably-town enigma, and technically after that modkill, losing a lynch on testing him does not hurt us (We already lost a mislynch from the modkill itself, an NL day will not hurt us now). Corrik also claimed MZero has a bomb on him, so we can make a person of our choice hammer anyway. This is probably something we should test at some point.

Death I see no reason to scumread at present. I felt this way about him for most of the game in Simpsons Mafia. Also claimed miller to motion detectors after Panthera claimed miller to motion detectors and tracker. Was one of the early people on Puns, and openly suspected 5tar. He would have to be playing a really solid game to be scum.

Sultan is barely active, but is confirmed tracker. I think Sultan is overwhelmed by the level of information flying around the game, which makes me a bit less inclined to jump on him for it.

Uwnim is scum only if the conspiracy theory holds AND both claimed motion detectors are scum. However, Death's claim as a miller to motion detector probably takes Uwnim totally off the table. This is partially dependent on flips, but scum happening to claim motion detector twice in a game where town has a miller for it sure would be odd. So basically, chances are currently very high this slot is town.

DamionDL has been virtually useless. Only claimed vanilla in the game. Has not posted since 2 1/2 hours into day 3.

Crescent Meows

DYL has been almost completely useless. Has a power he has neglected to use in any meaningful way for two out of three nights. The only time he used it, he put someone I town read the moment I entered the game as his #1 scum and apologized for the previous mislynch. He missed deadline yet again, as well.

The problem we most likely have here, is that we have a whole lot of completely useless players, and chances are exactly 1 of them is scum. Losing a mislynch to that MK really hurt in this regard. Assuming 6 scum in the game overall, we now lose on 3 mislynches.

Sultan feels like he fell off a cliff today. I remember nothing he did except for his claimed scan, but he is confirmed tracker.
Lea and Damion are useless, but both have innocent scans.
DYL has been slightly more useful than the above, but has no scan on him except for Uwnim clearing him of motion night 2. Depending on the flips we see, though, this might end up being better than the cop scans.

Occam's razor can be wrong but it suggests one of these four is scum, and ALL of them have a beneficial scan to their credit. Now we can only lynch 3.


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Crescent-Moon
04/13/20 9:06:58 PM
#6:


Now then, I want to reanalyze their actions day 1 because I see some juicy things looking back...

DamionDL posted...

##Vote: Lea

My gut is saying this nightmare of Lea posting is Scum trying to make sure Puns is lynched. I don't like it.

Damion's last post of day 1 was a splinter onto Lea. He says it's because Lea's trying to get Puns lynched, while Lea is on Panthera. The vote looks bad in a vacuum. The reasoning is awkward and isn't explained well. You know what though? This post is on the right track. Scum wanted Puns lynched over Panthera. This post feels like it's too on the money about scum's gameplan to have come from scum. This post singlehandedly greatly improved my stance on Damion.

Lea splinters off of Panthera almost as soon as the tiebreaker starts. Asks why Chris is town.

Leanansidhe posted...

Oh Puns, they're gonna murder the hell out of you for that

This is Lea's reaction to Puns' claim. It's... Why?

Chris actively defends Panthera's tiebreaker inactivity, and Lea posts this:
Leanansidhe posted...

He probably just didn't see that there was an actual literal tie in this hell year 2020 but he'll die for the sin of not claiming oh well, maybe he's scum
This post is a disaster. It both defends Panthera and says Panthera might be scum. There doesn't seem to be anything that justifies any of Lea's actions in the tiebreaker. Lea is flat out not trying this game. I'm actually going to be mad if Lea is town and is playing in an intentionally anti-town manner just so she can get herself killed and BS post as a ghost. I honestly would want to put her on ignore for the rest of the game if she flips the role she's claiming.

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

##unvote

###vote:Chris

Yolo!

This is one of only two posts Sultan has in the tiebreaker. He has absolutely no given reason for getting off of Panthera or going onto Chris.

DYL has no posts for the last 23 hours or so of day 1, but like both other days, was there shortly after the day ended to post his nonsense after not being present anywhere near EoD.

People I don't want to lynch today:
Tange, Scare, MZero, Death, Uwnim, Damion, Corrik (Corrik I'm adding reluctantly, but I feel the game doesn't add up if Corrik is scum.)

People we need to kill ASAP:
Panthera, Masterplum

The last scum: Lea, Sultan, DYL

This is my current game theory. The modkill cost us a mislynch (The game would practically be over already if it didn't happen), but it means we can test MZero at some point. Given Corrik's claim that MZero has a bomb on him, this seems prudent. I don't think scum MZero fakes this and scum should never have a role that's unlynchable. Scum had a hyper bomb and town has no direct killing power. "Deathproof" doesn't make any sense to be scum. Two bombs on the scumteam doesn't sound right either. Even if he doesn't explode, I'm comfortable calling him solidly town if the lynch doesn't kill him and leaving him at that.

I really hope we get out of tonight with some sort of scan on Corrik. He's the one X factor that worries me the most. I'm worried a lot of our actions are going to get burned on the two already obvious scum.

After we lynch Panthera and Plum, we make someone in that third pool hammer MZero and see what happens. That's probably our best bet. Any power claims we still have left (And with Uwnim, Sultan, Scare, and Tange are all claimed scanners, at least one will still be alive... Well, and I guess Corrik is also a claimed scanner) will get their results before we move into lynching into that pile and give us the most possible information. That's of course assuming scanners don't catch the last scum before then, and that MZero doesn't just explode and take out the last scum anyway.

[4] Hb - (Corrik), (MZero), (Sultan), Balla, Lea, Sultan, (Corrik), Death
[3] Balla - (Lea), (DYL), (Scare), Hb, (Sultan), Plum, Panth
I just looked at this again and this is interesting. There's 3 scum on Balla, but both Lea and Sultan are not, even though they were on Balla at some point. Sultan switched from Balla to Hb after the claim.

Wait a minute, these votes are wrong... Corrik never unvoted Hb before voting for Panthera. I'm not sure how this was entirely missed by everyone, which includes me at the time. Hb ended the day at 5 votes.

So some more tidbits I just noticed while looking at that:

masterplum posted...

I hate these reaction HB votes

Balla, explain your thought process picking chris night 1

The two reaction Hb votes were Sultan and Lea, two people he's tried to make out to be potential scum no matter what happens. Why is he not attacking either of them for this? It was a comment Plum made for the sake of a comment. Sultan AND Lea (who came out of nowhere) have their Hb votes be their last post of the day, each. Hb's vote actually looked rather awful at 3.

It's kind of absurd just how similar the vote patterns of Sultan and Lea have been this game.

masterplum posted...

You guys are acting like scum always acts perfectly. I'm super confidant balls is scum thinking hb is lying

Crescent-Moon posted...

Why would scum think Hb is lying? Why would Hb lie to begin with?

uwnim posted...

Actually full doc trying to act like something less than he really is so he comes across as harmless.

masterplum posted...

Ask corrik why he claimed cop as vanilla or whatever. Sometimes people do things.

Or maybe some power affected something. Idk.

Uwnim is the sensible town reaction. Plum is the scum reaction that reaches for justifications.

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uwnim
04/13/20 9:07:01 PM
#7:


Besides scare's death confirming his scans, I went to Damion last night and he didn't move.

Survivor cop has to be like one of the worst things ever. How he'd been playing makes a lot of sense now.

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Crescent-Moon
04/13/20 9:08:27 PM
#8:


And seriously notepad is awful for holding quotes...

But I'm going to elaborate on this separately:

DamionDL posted...

##Vote: Lea

My gut is saying this nightmare of Lea posting is Scum trying to make sure Puns is lynched. I don't like it.

Damion's last post of day 1, with 15 minutes left in the day, was a splinter onto Lea. He says it's because Lea's trying to get Puns lynched, while Lea is on Panthera. The vote looks bad in a vacuum. The reasoning is awkward and isn't explained well. You know what though? This post is on the right track. Scum wanted Puns lynched over Panthera. This post feels like it's too on the money about scum's gameplan to have come from scum. This post singlehandedly greatly improved my stance on Damion.

This is something I found from day 1. This makes me think Damion is town.

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Crescent-Moon
04/13/20 9:10:35 PM
#9:


uwnim posted...
Besides scare's death confirming his scans, I went to Damion last night and he didn't move.

Survivor cop has to be like one of the worst things ever. How he'd been playing makes a lot of sense now.
Oh well, I was hoping you'd target Lea.

I have no desire to broach the topic of lynching Damion anyway.

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DoubleTangicide
04/13/20 9:11:46 PM
#10:


well my initial thought was it was a rough modkill for balla. I get why it happened, and I'm not disputing it as the host's decision, but it's still a rough way for him to go.

I'm also really shocked to see the light of day, to be honest. I'm sure it's a scum gambit to try to set me up because I wanted to kill scare so badly yesterday (and, for the record, I was right that he wasn't town)

Looking at the EoD yesterday, I think Plum stands out as potential scum. I would need to do some more research into this first, but he's on my short list for now

Finally, I scanned panth last night. He was gaining traction at the end of day, and similarly to why I scanned Balla, I figured he would be the right choice.

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TheSultanOfSlam
04/13/20 9:12:33 PM
#11:


Well... i was trying to confirm Scare Cop... he visited plum but now we never get that result... tbh thought you didnt get result if they died??

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DoubleTangicide
04/13/20 9:12:33 PM
#12:


thought I added this at the end

Panthera came back with these options:
Bodyguard
Possessor
Jailkeeper

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Crescent-Moon
04/13/20 9:12:55 PM
#13:


Scare's flip is very interesting though... For there to be 6 scum now, this game violates the 25-33% anti-town rule.

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TheSultanOfSlam
04/13/20 9:14:37 PM
#14:


Crescent-Moon posted...
This is one of only two posts Sultan has in the tiebreaker. He has absolutely no given reason for getting off of Panthera or going onto Chris.

I exsplained this it was more or less a fun way to get off panth i didnt think panth should have been the lynch

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Crescent-Moon
04/13/20 9:15:26 PM
#15:


Oh and Tange, my wall eviscerates Plum just like my first wall Eviscerates 5tar

I was hoping for Plum and Panthera to not be scanned today because I want them both dead regardless and I'd rather the question marks get hammered with scans them.

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Crescent-Moon
04/13/20 9:16:28 PM
#16:


TheSultanOfSlam posted...
I exsplained this it was more or less a fun way to get off panth i didnt think panth should have been the lynch
I am more ok with you right now than I am with Lea and DYL.

Its not saying much, but..

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DoubleTangicide
04/13/20 9:18:26 PM
#17:


Crescent-Moon posted...
Oh and Tange, my wall eviscerates Plum just like my first wall Eviscerates 5tar

I see that and I entirely agree with you. He doesn't look good to me at all

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uwnim
04/13/20 9:18:39 PM
#18:


Crescent-Moon posted...
Oh well, I was hoping you'd target Lea.

I have no desire to broach the topic of lynching Damion anyway.
Thought about it, but figured the odds were too high that someone else would visit her. Big problem with this role is that you have to predict other people's actions to avoid having your scan made useless.

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TheSultanOfSlam
04/13/20 9:19:39 PM
#19:


I do agree lea has looked very shady this game still suspicious of plum they way he came in just seemed super weird and very focused. Might need more of a read on DYL.

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TheSultanOfSlam
04/13/20 9:21:21 PM
#20:


BUT to leas credit Scare did scan her town so maybe shes just being weird. (Could still be godfather i suppose but idk)

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Crescent-Moon
04/13/20 9:22:25 PM
#22:


...A deleted message?

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turbopuns3
04/13/20 9:22:52 PM
#23:


Deleted post was me, no spoilers at all, delete was a mistake sorry, wasn't thinking
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uwnim
04/13/20 9:24:05 PM
#24:


Posting was a mistake really, you are dead and what your deleted post said should have either been pm'd to the host or saved for after the game.

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Crescent-Moon
04/13/20 9:24:34 PM
#25:


What Uwnim said.

Although I didn't read the post.

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Crescent-Moon
04/13/20 9:27:24 PM
#26:


I wonder what "possessor" does though..
Scum is either only 5/20 with a hyper bomb, or a game of 20 has 7 antitown.

Neither one of these sounds right. Scum would need some kind of monster roles to be remaining for 5 to feel right.

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uwnim
04/13/20 9:27:50 PM
#27:


DoubleTangicide posted...
thought I added this at the end

Panthera came back with these options:
Bodyguard
Possessor
Jailkeeper
None of those were his role and one of the results is supposed to be their role, right?

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Crescent-Moon
04/13/20 9:28:41 PM
#28:


uwnim posted...
None of those were his role and one of the results is supposed to be their role, right?
He's obviously mafia possessor.. Whatever that does.

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Crescent-Moon
04/13/20 9:30:28 PM
#29:


Actually, possessor sounds like a role that might be redirection. Possess the target to force their night action to a certain player.

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Panthera
04/13/20 9:31:40 PM
#30:


Good evening

Crescent-Moon posted...


Post #395, Plum asks for a case on Balla. Plum is given an outline by Panthera in the very next post that Balla has not done much overall, and MZero quickly brings up that Balla was scanned town (More town points for MZero!).

Crescent I literally pointed out that he had been scanned town in that exact post because I literally quoted myself to MZero right after, which I why I remember it!

I'm inclined to agree with looking at Plum right now but idk how much to weigh his attack on Balla, Balla did not exactly make himself look good leaving you to argue why his actions made sense for him. Testing MZero is...idk, I'm always a little hesitant on these kinds of test lynches when the person looks town. They don't technically cost much but they don't necessarily achieve anything either besides stalling an extra night.

DoubleTangicide posted...
thought I added this at the end

Panthera came back with these options:
Bodyguard
Possessor
Jailkeeper

You'd think scum would shoot the tracker one of these nights but noooo

(yeah "randomly visits people" was not my brightest idea. I'm not good at fake claims)

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Crescent-Moon
04/13/20 9:33:05 PM
#31:


Has there ever been a scum role before that allowed another member of scum to double act?

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uwnim
04/13/20 9:36:12 PM
#32:


No idea, though given the theme, it wouldn't be weird if there was.

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Crescent-Moon
04/13/20 9:36:41 PM
#33:


Panthera you are effectively claiming bodyguard that targeted Sultan of all people last night. The only two justifiable actions would have been Scare and Tange.

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Crescent-Moon
04/13/20 9:37:34 PM
#34:


Also you're claiming to have not used it on Chris OR the claimed cop night 2 by the way you phrased that.

I'm sorry but you can just die.

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Crescent-Moon
04/13/20 9:38:41 PM
#35:


I'm just waiting for Corrik's reaction to all this, ot should be fun.

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Panthera
04/13/20 9:40:21 PM
#36:


Crescent-Moon posted...
Panthera you are effectively claiming bodyguard that targeted Sultan of all people last night. The only two justifiable actions would have been Scare and Tange.

Day 1 he was the only claimed scanner, so it's obvious. Day 2 I was guessing between him and Scare and picked him because I thought scum would expect protection more on Scare. Last night I picked him again partially because I figured that scum probably has reason to not care about the other scans as much as they normally would (so tracker isn't as weak relative to the other two roles as it usually is) because town has a lot of scanning yo, partially because I had done it twice already and was feeling lazy.

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uwnim
04/13/20 9:42:14 PM
#37:


So chris wasn't ever a consideration?

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Crescent-Moon
04/13/20 9:43:21 PM
#38:


Scum is not going to shoot Sultan just because he claimed tracker. I don't mean to be offensive to him but that's just not going to happen. He's not dangerous enough a player to justify an early kill on with a weak scanner claim.

I would've protected Tange last night without second thought though.

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Crescent-Moon
04/13/20 9:44:36 PM
#39:


uwnim posted...
So chris wasn't ever a consideration?
And apparently Tange, who I was reasonably certain would die, wasn't a consideration last night.

Like, I even put it in my wall that I expected Tange to die.

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Crescent-Moon
04/13/20 9:45:50 PM
#40:


Also his logic is ridiculous. Tange has a deadly scanning role that can blow scum up in a blink and looked super town, unlike Sultan.

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masterplum
04/13/20 9:46:15 PM
#41:


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uwnim
04/13/20 9:46:31 PM
#42:


Crescent-Moon posted...
And apparently Tange, who I was reasonably certain would die, wasn't a consideration last night.

Like, I even put it in my wall that I expected Tange to die.
Eh, that one was technically justified, even if the logic was bad.

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Crescent-Moon
04/13/20 9:46:33 PM
#43:


I do respect the effort though. Hb flopped over like a wet noodle.

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Crescent-Moon
04/13/20 9:47:09 PM
#44:


uwnim posted...
Eh, that one was technically justified, even if the logic was bad.
The logic that tracker is more dangerous than detective? That's asinine.

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masterplum
04/13/20 9:48:11 PM
#45:


Yeah, I'm not even going to fight it. I have a really good sense of when roles don't line up. And in this case I was 100% right that Balla was lying about his role.

He was just lying to protect himself. Argh

I mean I think my best defense is it was pretty obvious at the end that Balla wasn't going to get lynched and I wouldn't have pushed it that hard as scum. No way really to prove that. I'll try to figure out who scum is based on it but I wouldn't be surprised if I die today

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DoubleTangicide
04/13/20 9:49:17 PM
#46:


masterplum posted...
I don't even

What don't you even?


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Panthera
04/13/20 9:49:48 PM
#47:


uwnim posted...
So chris wasn't ever a consideration?

Only a little. He was being a lot less insightful than his usual self and even though he nuked Puns, he also pushed everyone to ignore and lynch Red who then flipped town and warned us to look at him. I didn't trust him overly much and low effort Chris is less valuable relative to scanners than usual Chris

Crescent-Moon posted...
Scum is not going to shoot Sultan just because he claimed tracker. I don't mean to be offensive to him but that's just not going to happen. He's not dangerous enough a player to justify an early kill on with a weak scanner claim.

I would've protected Tange last night without second thought though.

My concern with Tange was that he kind of threw me off with how obsessed he was with Scare even after Balla's claim, that and that if Plum (or Uwnim, but that's less likely) is scum motion detector he can't solve it. I will admit I didn't think last night through as much as I usually would.

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DoubleTangicide
04/13/20 9:49:53 PM
#48:


masterplum posted...
I wouldn't have pushed it that hard as scum

cheese with the wine in front of you?

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masterplum
04/13/20 9:50:52 PM
#49:


DoubleTangicide posted...
cheese with the wine in front of you?

Yeah, I hate that phrase. Its total I'm 14 and this is deep teritory.

At the end of the day you have to judge people based on their intentions. If my intention was not to die then it was a bad play. As I am a good scum player I most likely do not make that play

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Crescent-Moon
04/13/20 9:51:56 PM
#50:


Newsflash: Balla was obviously doctor. I went out of my way multiple times to justify the claim he made because of this.

Like, Balla should have probably just claimed his real role. There's no way scum didn't figure this out as well.

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masterplum
04/13/20 9:52:07 PM
#51:


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