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Topics: 3
Board 8 Its laptop time again 1 2023-07-18 14:13:35
Posts: 529
Thorn posted...
So, at risk of opening up the polling discussion again, I finally got a tweet that put all the special election data together so I can post that instead of just saying it.

This is the reason why I think "dooming" is the wrong take right now: In 2023 Special Elections across the country Dems have been overperforming Biden 2020 by over 6 points across a variety of types of states (red, blue, swing) capped just now with flipping a Trump 2020 NH state district with a 12 point win and holding onto their one-seat majority in Pennsylvania with a 7.5 point overperformance against 2020.

So despite the media narrative around Biden polls, Dems have been doing considerably better in 2023 than they did in 2020. And to my knowledge special election results going significantly in favor of a party is a better major election year predictor than over-a-year-out Presidential polls. And I don't mean that in a snarky way or even a "President Kerry, President Hillary, Reagan losing in '84" one-liner way, pretty sure the data supports that (and that in general Prez polling this far out does not have a strong correlation with results at all really.)

And because I know it'll come up if I don't put up this disclaimer, and still might anyway, but do not mistake me saying this as complacency or "consider it called." Just that "doom" is just straight up wrong from a data standpoint.

I think the concern is enthusiasm. Will there be enough enthusiasm from Biden supporters
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