Board 8 > Sir Chris Predicts the Game of the Decade... with science!

(+) Yeah! (+)

Hello everyone, so since I had some spare time over the weekend I decided to revisit my bracket and through the MIRACLE OF SCIENCE AND DATA reworked it to do my dark bidding of finally winning a contest after being here for... *checks calendar*

2 god damn fucking decades.

The trick, however, is that I am not going to reveal my methods. I am of course using DARK SORCERY to reign supreme....for once.

Just curious for reactions and general discussion points!

Round 1 Division 1:

Zelda > Outer Worlds

Obvios enough

Halo: Reach > Life is Strange

I feel really bad for people who are picking Life is Strange here.

Tales of Berseria > Hollow Knight

This should not be a debatable match, and yet it is?

Monster Hunter: World > Bravely Default

Obviously.

Ni no Kuni > Sekiro

SCIENCE

Walking Dead > Bastion

Close one though!

Dragon Quest XI > The Legend of Heroes

Finally Dragon Quest will look for once.


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Division 2 is... complete chalk according to my predictions, and I don't even know how anyone could make a mistake in round 1 unless they took Fortnite.

Unless you think it is going to rally, don't take Fortnite. Seriously.

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SSB > Tekken 7

This one could be ugly.

Link Between Worlds > Bayonetta

LAW

Dead Space 2 > Spider-Man

SCIENCE

Minecraft > DSota

... yeah

Undertale > Octopath

I think this is one where Undertale is actually pretty popular on its own merits. Although I guess we'll have to see how gamefaqs reacts to the MEMORIES.

Dragon's Dogma > Shovel Knight

SCIENCE

DKC > DMC5

I trust DK more tbh

SMO > MK11

Mario comes to town.


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You want reactions? Sure, I have some reactions:

DoomTheGyarados posted...

I feel really bad for people who are picking Life is Strange here.

The second match of a contest fucks with people way more often than not, and even the Halo games people remembered in 2015 didn't show much. I have Halo here myself, but it's hard for me to be totally confident in a game no one really cares about versus a game at least some people really care about. Then again, maybe this will turn out like the last second match of a contest, which also involved Life is Strange.

DoomTheGyarados posted...

This should not be a debatable match, and yet it is?

Agreed; if the seeds were reversed, most people would pick Berseria without a second thought, and when have seeds ever correlated to strength?

DoomTheGyarados posted...

Dead Space 2 > Spider-Man

SCIENCE

I'm going to need a little more here if you want to convince me. Spider-Man's way bigger in the mainstream, has an actually relevant name, and even on GameFAQs, it showed something in 2018's GotY polls, which is more than Dead Space has ever been able to say. Ni no Kuni and Dragon's Dogma are perfectly plausible upset picks, and even if you get burned on both, maybe you only lose 1 point each. Picking against Spider-Man, on the other hand, feels like tossing 3 points away simply because you're out of the loop.

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Why would I want to convince you pre contest?

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

Why would I want to convince you pre contest?

Yeah, good point. I took another look at your OP and tried to think of something good to add onto there, but failed. Still though, I will certainly be shocked if Dead Space 2 beats Spider-Man.

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I think they have done about the same on the site from a glance, but people have recency bias and "It's Spider-Man!"

I think the fact that Dead Space 2 managed to make the bracket at all should be a clue it may be underestimated.

That's all I will say though!

Division 4 is also all chalk, so if anyone disagrees let's hear it.

Division 5 all chalk...

Division 6 all chalk...

Division 7 all chalk...

wow... no upsets at all there huh chris

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Where is the science

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Dead Space 2 more likely to get doubled than win.

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AxemRedRanger posted...

Dead Space 2 more likely to get doubled than win.

Will gladly take that sig bet!

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Skyrim > Whatever

Journey > Fate

FFXIV > Crypt of the NecoDancer

Mario Kart 8 > Uncharted 4

Pokemon > whatever

Hearthstone > Divinity

This one is one of the more shaky SCIENCE picks I have stuck with for round 1, but it's a 1 pointer either way so I stuck with science.

NieR: Automata > Bayonetta 2


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Division 1 & 2 Round 2

Zelda > Halo

LAW

Final Fantasy XV > Tales of Berseria

Tales deserves a better fate but FF is still FF

Monster Hunter: World > Ni no Kuni

Dragon Quest XI > Walking Dead

go DQ go

Mass Effect 2 > Fallout 4

People I hope don't forget how good this game is!

Borderlands 2 > Horizon Zero Dawn

SCIENCE makes this one very clear

Resident Evil 2 > Doom

Fire Emblem: Awakening > Bloodborne

SCIENCE also makes this one cut and dry.

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DIVISION 3 AND 4 ROUND 2

SSB Ultimate > Zelda Link Between Worlds

I am pretty tempted to take Zelda here, but I can't quite do it.

Minecraft > Dead Space 2

So since no one is going to be taking Dead Space to get here anyway I'll just say since its 56-44 loss to Halo in 2015 the playrate of Minecraft has gone up like 7%, which should be able to boost it a bit and I'd take Halo to beat either of these other games so yeah let's go Minecraft.

Undertale > Dragon's Dogma

Anti voting could screw this one up, but meh

Mario > DK

Because that is never wrong.

GTA V > Cuphead

Obviously

Persona 4: Golden > RDR

If you have RDR here boy are you in for a rude awakening.

Xenoblade Chronicles > Overwatch

Obviously.

Fire Emblem > Dragon Age

Obviously.

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

Division 4 is also all chalk, so if anyone disagrees let's hear it.

Yes, I disagree that Overwatch/Death Stranding is chalk, along with Isaac/Nioh and Rocket League/FighterZ in 5-7. I have all three lower seeds winning, and at the very least, I expect all three to be close matches.

Also, I'm tempted to make a sig bet with you, but I'd rather wait for a certain match coming up soon that means a whole lot more for both of us.

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SCIENCE says I am right about 2/3 for sure, and Isaac vs Nioh is going to be VERY CLOSE INDEED THOUGH.

DIVISION 5 AND 6 ROUND 2

Witcher 3 > Mass Effect 3

Not close!

SMG2 > Stardew Valley

Not close

Fallout: New Vegas > Dark Souls III

Need this to not be close!

God of War > Isaac

RIP

Persona 5 > AC: Black Flag

.

Sonic Mania > Super Meat Boy

MAY BE VERY CLOSE THOUGH

Portal 2 > Kingdom Hearts III

No one gave a damn about KH3, I have found out.

Animal Crossing: New Leaf > Red Dead Redemption 2

MOTHER. FUCKING. SCIENCE.

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Divsion 7 & 8 Round 2

Dark Souls > Rocket League

Yup

MGSV > Whatever

Yup

Batman: Arkham City > Bioshock Infinite

I think this is going to be an ulti style blowout tbqh!

Last of Us > Diablo III

Not how I will be voting but hey what can you do

Skyrim > Journey

still playing skyrim till this day.

Mario Kart 8 > FFXV

Might not go this way but remake for switch probably helped

Pokemon Gold > Rayman

Duh

NieR > Hearthstone

super duh


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Not enough SCIENCE for you, you greedy animals? FINE.

Zelda > FF 15

LAW

Monster Hunter: World > Dragon Quest XI

This... may surprise some of you. After all, I am the biggest Dragon Quest fan in the world and by all rights DQ is seen as the prohibitive favorite in this match. I... just think Monster Hunter: World is a bigger deal overall. I think DQ will keep it close but I think we are going to see a small upset here (if I am right about people picking certain things)


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:(.

Mass effect > Borderlands 2

Fire Emblem Awakening > Resident Evil 2

SSB Ultimate > Super Mario Odyssey

Persona 4: Golden > GTA V

Xenoblade Chronicles > Fire Emblem Three Houses

Witcher 3 > SMG3

Fallout New Vegas > God of War

Persona 5 > Sonic Mania

Animal Crossing: New Leaf > Portal 2

Dark Souls > Last of Us

Skyrim > MK8

Pokemon HG/SS > NieR


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The problem is twofold here: one, that you're late to the party of bracket prediction topics (probably due to your busy schedule to be fair), and two, that you're not giving any reasoning for most of your picks. That's understandable, since you want to keep your contest-winning secrets close to your chest, but without elaboration there's not much to comment on. I can just say that I have different winners in quite a few of those Round 3 matches, and in particular that New Leaf to Round 4 pick is wild, but not in a bad way.

(Also the match I was tempted to sig bet on was Portal 2/KH3, on the assumption you still had the latter escaping its division.)

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Well honestly, if anyone listens to me anyway they are stupid because I never win these so I'll just explain some science.

I went in and looked at the ownership rates of the games as well as the scores and used some logic along the way. For example Dead Space 2 has a high ownership rate and is very popular, and when games like that make the bracket it triggers something to me because it's not a game you'd really think would be entirely up gamefaqs' alley. Spider-Man did OK in its GotY polls but it was only OK and games with well known characters don't for sure generate success.

I have Animal Crossing going far because it is one of the most owned games on the site, one of the highest rated games on the site, a new AC just came out that apparently 30% of potd people already have (and 30% ownership rate on a brand new title is kind of dumb) and if 2018 told us anything, it is this site is getting more nintendo-y by the day with Zelda gangbusting.

Also none of its competition has done actually anything of note.

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

I went in and looked at the ownership rates of the games as well as the scores and used some logic along the way.

So this is an interesting method, but there's at least one major problem I can think of: it sounds like you used direct comparisons without adjusting for the rapid decrease in site traffic (except directly to guides) during the 2010s. For example, Dead Space 2 has 2.3x the user ratings of Spider-Man (with slightly lower average scores) and over 3x the owners. However, the average poll in 2018 had only a fifth of the votes of the average poll in 2011. Adjusted for that gap, Dead Space 2 has only 2/3rds the owners and less than half the ratings of Spider-Man. Spider-Man being so much more recent (and higher-seeded) also means it's more likely voters still remember and care about it, and it'll have a major bracket advantage to boot. I will say that Dead Space 2 definitely isn't out of place in this field even though I was surprised to see it make the bracket in the first place, so my confidence in a not-so-close match here is more due to my respect for Spider-Man.

As for New Leaf, there's no amount of year adjusting that can make its user stats look anything less than phenomenal, so my lack of confidence is pretty much purely subjective. I simply don't think generally 5+ year-old ratings for 3DS games have much of a correlation with the extent to which voters still care about those games and respect them as GotD contenders. I feel like the highest-seeded (true) 3DS games tying for a 7-seed, along with the sheer amount of DS/3DS snubs, is more indicative of what we can expect from voters this contest. Also, Portal 2 looked decent in its close 2015 loss to Sonic 2, and RDR2 likewise looked decent in the various 2018 GotY polls, and I believe decent non-fodder showings will be enough to get the job done. That's just my opinion, though, and I have to admit your logic is sound regardless of my personal disagreement with it.

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My love of spider man has won out

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