Board 8 > ~Game of the Decade Spread Betting~ Results/Discussion

(+) Yeah! (+)

That's right, it's back! Will AxemRedRanger defend the crown? Or will a new challenger claim the throne? (tip: AxemRedRanger was the first sign-up last year and won the whole thing!)

You can sign-up now or anytime during the contest. Regardless, you will be given $1000 to bet on matches as you see fit. If at any time you fall below $1000, you can bet up to $1000 but beware you can enter the negatives. The user with the most money at the end will be crowned the winner and receive a game of their choice (within reason) courtesy of your host (unless I win, then the prize will go to the runner-up).

Basically this works like sports betting with spreads, if you're familiar with that. Here's an example line:

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (-40) vs The Outer Worlds

If you bet on BotW, it would have to beat TOW by 40%, meaning it would have to get at least 70% of the vote (70-30 = 40). If you bet on TOW (+40) it needs to score at least 30.01% of the vote (69.99 - 30.01 = 39.98) to keep the difference in percentage, or spread, within 40 points.

So someone with $1000 bets $500 on BotW

BotW 73.12%
TOW 26.88%

BotW covers! The bet is doubled and returned for a profit of $500 and the player is now at $1500

ALTERNATE UNIVERSE

BotW 63.1%
TOW 36.9%

TOW covers! All BotW bets are lost and said player is now at $500. Even though BotW won, it didn't win by enough.

Back for this contest is 4-match days, meaning parlays are back too! For those unfamiliar, you can earn more by combining your bets, but if one is wrong you lose the whole thing. So let's say

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (-40) vs The Outer Worlds
Halo: Reach (-10) vs Life Is Strange

If you bet $100 on each of these individually and win, you earn a $100 profit on each, for a total of $200. However, if you parlay and both win you will get x3, meaning you win a $300 profit. However, if either match is wrong you lose the entire bet. 3 and 4 match parlays will give higher payouts, but you risk losing it all if any match in the parlay is wrong.

2-Match Parlay: 3 to 1 ($100 bet = $300 profit)
3-Match Parlay: 7 to 1 ($100 bet = $700 profit)
4-Match Parlay: 15 to 1 ($100 bet = $1500 profit)

You can choose any combination of parlays and single bets you want. I'm open to suggestions about this.

I will use all sources available to set the lines (x-stats, oracle, crew analysis, etc.) but if anyone wants to help with that I'd appreciate it!

I think that's about it but if I forgot anything feel free to ask or chime in. I am open to suggestions!

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first, I guess I win

In to win again.

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Tag

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I'll give it a go.

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Tag

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in

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In

Also in

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Huzzah, was hoping this would be back! I'll try my best again this season.


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Time for everyone to lose

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Ngamer64 posted...

Huzzah, was hoping this would be back! I'll try my best again this season.

Thanks for the plug on The Show!

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bump

Tag

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tag

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I think I kind of almost won last time, maybe I can do that again?

(in)

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MetalmindStats posted...

I think I kind of almost won last time, maybe I can do that again?

(in)

Were you the guy who got a ridiculous amount early on and then crashed hard or the guy who would have jumped ahead of me if he had won his bet on Link/Zelda?

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AxemRedRanger posted...

Were you the guy who got a ridiculous amount early on and then crashed hard or the guy who would have jumped ahead of me if he had won his bet on Link/Zelda?

I guess the former? I do seem to recall something like that, but trawling through my bets, they look too inconsistent. I don't think it could be the latter, since I only see one day it was possible to parlay on both Link and Zelda, and doing so was the right play that day.

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In.

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AxemRedRanger posted...

Were you the guy who got a ridiculous amount early on and then crashed hard

This was me. I think it was Master Hand in Round 2 that I bet on lost everything. IIRC, the day that had Geralt/Rosalina, Hayabusa/Simon, Sans/Pac-Man, and Bayo/Riku was an absolute bloodbath, and I MAX parlayed the correct results for Simon, Pac-man, and Bayo.

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I remember some discussion last year about lowering the payouts for the higher parlays to make it less swingy. If anyone has suggestions about the odds I'd be happy to hear them!

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keep it the same, but like I said last time if you want to add money line bets I'd be okay with that (only for matches that are at least semi-debatable obviously)

MZero11 posted...

I remember some discussion last year about lowering the payouts for the higher parlays to make it less swingy. If anyone has suggestions about the odds I'd be happy to hear them!

I think the swingy-ness of Spread Betting is what sets it apart from the other board contests. Everything else rewards consistency, whereas Spread Betting is pretty unique that you can pick and choose your battles and can sit out entire days but still have a shot at winning.

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@MZero11 There's a possibility of it starting tonight. You might want to put up the first topic just to be safe.

I will join this. I don't know if you have to sign up; in fact I think you don't, but I'm signing up anyway.

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icymi https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/78506179

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looks like a solid prelude to another victory

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This is a really cool concept. If I had any interest in betting whatsoever, I'd be all over this. As I don't, though, I wish you all the best of luck! :D

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you too must bet
it is not enough that I win again
as many people as possible must lose

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MZero11 posted...

By the way, my computer is busted and I'm mobile only for awhile, so if anyone would like to help with the standings that would be lovely!

if results hold...

$8000 AndywoodCubeGmr
$8000 davidponte
$8000 Hbthebattle
$8000 hylianknight3
$8000 Keltiq
$8000 pirate109
$8000 SeabassDebeste
$8000 SwiftyDC
$4000 -hotdogturtle--
$4000 AxemRedRanger
$4000 Lightning Strikes
$4000 plasmabeam
$4000 tennisboy213
$4000 Underleveled
$3000 MZero11
$2000 Averia
$2000 Glenn_and_Toad
$2000 GTM
$2000 Kotetsu534
$2000 Master Moltar
$2000 Paratroopa1
$2000 SuperNiceDog
$1900 Agent M
$1500 CaIlMeSpike
$1150 Ngamer64
$1000 charmander6000
$0 _SecretSquirrel
$0 DoomTheGyarados
$0 MetalmindStats
$0 ZeldaTPLink

Day 2 Projected Results:
$16000 hylianknight3
$16000 pirate109
$16000 SwiftyDC
$11000 SeabassDebeste
$10000 AndywoodCubeGmr
$8000 -hotdogturtle--
$8000 tennisboy213
$7500 Hbthebattle
$7000 MetalmindStats
$6000 Underleveled
$4000 GTM
$4000 Master Moltar
$4000 plasmabeam
$4000 SuperNiceDog
$4000 ZaziGuado
$3400 Glenn_and_Toad
$3000 MZero11
$3000 Paratroopa1
$2500 Averia
$2000 CaIlMeSpike
$2000 Kotetsu534
$2000 TsunamiXXVIII
$1900 Agent M
$1840 Ngamer64
$1500 Kotetsu534
$500 charmander6000
$0 AxemRedRanger
$0 Chaeix
$0 davidponte
$0 Keltiq
$0 Lightning Strikes
$0 TheArkOfTurus
$0 ($1000 debt) _SecretSquirrel
$0 ($1000 debt) DoomTheGyarados
$0 ($1000 debt) ZeldaTPLink

On day 1 I only bet half of my money on a parlay, which would have put me at... 2500 I think? (You had me listed with the people who bet max). And then I went max on day 2 which should hold, which would put me at 5000. Can you double check this? Yeah I'm shorting my mistakenly given money but I'm not betting max on day 3 and I won't be around when the match goes up later.

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Sorry, you're right. It's been corrected for the next update. If anyone else notices any errors please let me know.

Looks like a triple parlay on VVVVVV, Bloodstained, and Horizon is going to do well here. Hopefully, V6 doesn't fall off too hard on the board vote.

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My name appears twice on that list by the way. I think I'm on $3000 (bet half on FFXV and Hollow Knight, which both covered, taking me to $2000, then bet half on Bastion, which covered).

Of course I've staked $1500 on V6 today which is looking risky!

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whoops

also with the way it's going, it doesn't look like I'll be able to post an early update tonight

Day 3 Projected Results:

Subject to change of course, but I think it's safe to call it. Lots of movement today. As always, check for any errors. Also congrats to Keltiq for winning a 4-match parlay on one of the toughest days to do so!

$32000 SwiftyDC
$19000 hylianknight3
$18000 pirate109
$16500 SeabassDebeste
$15000 Keltiq
$12000 Underleveled
$8000 GTM
$8000 Hbthebattle
$7500 MZero11
$6000 Paratroopa1
$5000 AndywoodCubeGmr
$4500 plasmabeam
$4000 SuperNiceDog
$3700 ZaziGuado
$3000 -hotdogturtle--
$2300 Ngamer64
$1750 Averia
$1500 CaIlMeSpike
$1500 Kotetsu534
$900 Agent M
$800 Glenn_and_Toad
$750 charmander6000
$0 Chaeix
$0 Master Moltar
$0 MetalmindStats
$0 tennisboy213
$0 TheArkOfTurus
$0 TsunamiXXVIII
$0 ($1000 debt) AxemRedRanger
$0 ($1000 debt) davidponte
$0 ($1000 debt) DoomTheGyarados
$0 ($1000 debt) Lightning Strikes
$0 ($2000 debt) _SecretSquirrel
$0 ($2000 debt) ZeldaTPLink

What's the prize for finishing with the most debt after betting max everyday and losing?

It's arguably harder than making money!

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Looks like I'm out of the hole today, unless Fire Emblem falls off a cliff after the board vote.

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Ok just to be sure if I win my $1000 bet today I now have $2000 but with $1000 more of debt, right (since I was at 0 money)?

Or I don't take the debt but only gain $1000.

Cuz I'd rather take the debt and have more cash in hand.

it's the 2nd one

Day 4 Projected Results:

$256,000 SwiftyDC
$120,000 Keltiq
$30,000 hylianknight3
$27,000 pirate109
$16,500 SeabassDebeste
$12,000 -hotdogturtle--
$8,100 plasmabeam
$8,000 GTM
$7,000 MetalmindStats
$7,000 tennisboy213
$7,000 ($1,000 debt) AxemRedRanger
$7,000 ($1,000 debt) davidponte
$5,000 Paratroopa1
$5,000 SuperNiceDog
$4,200 ZaziGuado
$4,140 Ngamer64
$4,000 Hbthebattle
$3,000 Underleveled
$1,800 Glenn_and_Toad
$1,750 Averia
$1,500 Kotetsu534
$1,000 CaIlMeSpike
$1,000 TheArkOfTurus
$750 charmander6000
$1,000 ($1,000 debt) Lightning Strikes
$0 AndywoodCubeGmr
$0 Chaeix
$0 MZero11
$0 TsunamiXXVIII
$0 Yuri_LowelI
$0 ($100 debt) Agent M
$1,000 ($2,000 debt) ZeldaTPLink
$0 ($1,000 debt) DoomTheGyarados
$0 ($1,000 debt) Master Moltar
$0 ($3,000 debt) _SecretSquirrel

Swifty with almost as much cash as the rest of the field combined.

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Wow!

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Day 5 Projected Results:

$960,000 Keltiq
$256,000 SwiftyDC
$50,000 hylianknight3
$31,500 ($1,000 debt) AxemRedRanger
$23,000 tennisboy213
$20,000 -hotdogturtle--
$18,900 pirate109
$17,500 MetalmindStats
$14,000 ($1,000 debt) davidponte
$13,000 SeabassDebeste
$8,100 plasmabeam
$8,000 GTM
$8,000 Paratroopa1
$8,000 ($1,000 debt) Lightning Strikes
$5,382 Ngamer64
$4,000 SuperNiceDog
$3,200 ZaziGuado
$3,000 Kotetsu534
$3,000 Underleveled
$3,000 ($1,000 debt) Master Moltar
$2,000 AndywoodCubeGmr
$2,000 Haste_2
$1,750 Averia
$1,000 TheArkOfTurus
$750 charmander6000
$0 CaIlMeSpike
$0 Chaeix
$0 Glenn_and_Toad
$0 Hbthebattle
$0 Yuri_LowelI
$0 ($100 debt) Agent M
$0 ($1,000 debt) DoomTheGyarados
$0 ($1,000 debt) MZero11
$0 ($1,000 debt) TsunamiXXVIII
$0 ($2,000 debt) ZeldaTPLink
$0 ($4,000 debt) _SecretSquirrel

Tennisboy you are a saint thank you so much

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I was gonna parlay on Odyssey + Shovel Knight, but I chickened out of Odyssey at the last minute after checking through all the other matches that have hit 80% in this contest so far.

Whoops.

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would've went all in on undertale (my oracle was 75% whoops), thank goodness I missed the last few topics, now im only 100x behind

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Day 6 Projected Results:

$900,000 Keltiq
$156,000 SwiftyDC
$47,250 pirate109
$40,000 -hotdogturtle--
$28,000 ($1,000 debt) davidponte
$24,000 Underleveled
$15,750 ($1,000 debt) AxemRedRanger
$8,100 plasmabeam
$8,000 GTM
$8,000 TheArkOfTurus
$7,500 MetalmindStats
$6,500 SeabassDebeste
$5,112.90 Ngamer64
$7,000 ($2,000 debt) ZeldaTPLink
$5,000 hylianknight3
$5,000 Paratroopa1
$3,500 SuperNiceDog
$3,200 ZaziGuado
$3,000 Kotetsu534
$2,000 Haste_2
$1,750 Averia
$1,125 charmander6000
$0 AndywoodCubeGmr
$0 Chaeix
$0 Menji
$0 squexa
$0 tennisboy213
$0 Yuri_LowelI
$0 ($1,000 debt) CaIlMeSpike
$0 ($1,000 debt) DoomTheGyarados
$0 ($1,000 debt) Glenn_and_Toad
$0 ($1,000 debt) Hbthebattle
$0 ($1,000 debt) Lightning Strikes
$0 ($1,000 debt) Master Moltar
$0 ($1,000 debt) TsunamiXXVIII
$0 ($1,100 debt) Agent M
$0 ($2,000 debt) MZero11
$0 ($5,000 debt) _SecretSquirrel

Day 7 Projected Results:

$2,100,000 Keltiq
$624,000 SwiftyDC
$192,000 Underleveled
$133,875 ($1,000 debt) AxemRedRanger
$66,150 pirate109
$56,000 ($1,000 debt) davidponte
$40,000 -hotdogturtle--
$30,000 MetalmindStats
$24,000 Kotetsu534
$20,000 hylianknight3
$20,000 ($2,000 debt) ZeldaTPLink
$16,000 GTM
$15,000 tennisboy213
$15,000 ($1,000 debt) Master Moltar
$13,000 SeabassDebeste
$10,000 Paratroopa1
$8,691.93 Ngamer64
$8,100 plasmabeam
$7,000 TheArkOfTurus
$7,000 ($1,000 debt) Hbthebattle
$7,000 ($1,000 debt) Lightning Strikes
$7,000 ($1,000 debt) TsunamiXXVIII
$7,000 ($2,000 debt) MZero11
$4,800 SuperNiceDog
$3,200 ZaziGuado
$2,750 Averia
$2,000 Haste_2
$1,687.50 charmander6000
$1,500 AndywoodCubeGmr
$0 Chaeix
$0 Menji
$0 squexa
$0 Yuri_LowelI
$0 ($1,000 debt) CaIlMeSpike
$0 ($1,000 debt) DoomTheGyarados
$0 ($1,000 debt) Glenn_and_Toad
$0 ($1,100 debt) Agent M
$3,000 ($5,000 debt) _SecretSquirrel