Board 8 > Adventure Time Mafia! Topic 3 - All jacked up!

(+) Yeah! (+)

In the morning, the citizens of Ooo gathered to get ready for Princess Day. However, a terrible vision was seen! Stretched out across all the lands was a very thin and dried out dog, unmoving.

Puns has been killed!

You are Jake the Dog, TOWN Hero! With the amazing ability to stretch parts of your body in all sorts of shapes and sizes, you have become quite the hero in the Land of Ooo, making your late parents proud.

As a Hero, once per night, you can pick another player to help! That player will gain an additional power! (players can only be targeted by you once per game).

You win when all threats to your faction have been eliminated.

Tops Blooby

1. IGCD
2. SBell
3. Lea
4. Hb
5. Scare
6. Sultan
7. Death
8. Lopen
9. red13n
10. MZero
11. Sir Chris
12. 5tarscream
13. Ben

Bottoms Blooby
MKD1 - Corrik (The Lich, TOWN Ultimate Evil)
KN1 - Puns (Jake the Dog, TOWN Hero)

With 13 alive, it takes 7 votes to reach majority! Day ends February 12 at 9 PM EST.

GO!

@IfGodCouldDie
@Obellisk
@Leanansidhe
@Hbthebattle
@ScareChan @Fastbreak
@TheSultanOfSlam
@htaeD
@Lopen
@red13n

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@MZero11
@DoomTheGyarados
@5tarscream
@benjamin3740

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##Vote: Lea

Now back to the good part.

Also Red's scum equity has gone THROUGH THE ROOF because he read my epic wall of epic and was like "Chris is scum" so uh yeah not impressed with that.


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Just to clarify, Corrik got modkilled for posting in the Eff 2019 scum discord, right?
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Also, yeah
##Vote: Lea
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Hbthebattle posted...

Just to clarify, Corrik got modkilled for posting in the Eff 2019 scum discord, right?

I don't think this matters or needs clarification. But thanks for confirming you are town.

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Hb was pretty obviously town after awhile yesterday, he just started cranky.

*Resets my spreadsheet*

God Puns is going to be so annoyed when he guesses I am scum and is told I am not.

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Also I will take full credit for calling the exact reason why Corrik thought he was flavor miller. Denny Crane!

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I feel like my role makes more sense now. Also I am glad that I put it out there to prevent Puns from visiting me.

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Well yesterday sure sucked. No clue what happened to Corrik, and I didnt even get a chance to defend myself.

Something else that I wanted to say that I didnt get a chance to - IGCD is most definitely town. IGCDs actions dont make much sense, but make less sense if he was scum. It sounds like he actually got confused at being a Princess role, but then being told he had no powers. That confusion there doesnt happen unless he really is Princess.

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benjamin3740 posted...

Well yesterday sure sucked. No clue what happened to Corrik, and I didnt even get a chance to defend myself.

Something else that I wanted to say that I didnt get a chance to - IGCD is most definitely town. IGCDs actions dont make much sense, but make less sense if he was scum. It sounds like he actually got confused at being a Princess role, but then being told he had no powers. That confusion there doesnt happen unless he really is Princess.

I think the only way IGCD could EVER possibly be scum is with Lea as a planned gambit. That's it that's all. Because 95% of the time I just straight up agree with you.

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

Hb was pretty obviously town after awhile yesterday, he just started cranky.

*Resets my spreadsheet*

God Puns is going to be so annoyed when he guesses I am scum and is told I am not.

Oh yeah I agree on HB too. He had a post where he brought up that vanillas in this game have weird role names. If scum was told this beforehand, I dont think he would have been so bold to announce it and show that he had more information. If scum was not told this, well then hes confirmed town vanilla.

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I have been blessed with Puns' power.

*aims gun at Lea*

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benjamin3740 posted...

I have been blessed with Puns' power.

*aims gun at Lea*

I don't think you read that role right.

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benjamin3740 posted...

Oh yeah I agree on HB too. He had a post where he brought up that vanillas in this game have weird role names. If scum was told this beforehand, I dont think he would have been so bold to announce it and show that he had more information. If scum was not told this, well then hes confirmed town vanilla.

Who said I was vanilla? I never claimed that. Doesnt puns showcase that all roles are renamed, not just vanillas?
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HB, just trust me on this you're town okay?

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benjamin3740 posted...

HB, just trust me on this you're town okay?

That wasnt the part of your post I was taking an issue with.
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I still dont like Death for saying he could claim on demand so much. Made it seem like he didnt think there were any consequences

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Chris. Why aren't you dead, in your opinion.

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Okay so. Scare being inactive in another game is very concerning.

Also i really disliked that train on death yesterday it was very weak. So might want to look more into that red started that train and quickly got a few other votes on it with very little reasoning

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Obellisk posted...

Chris. Why aren't you dead, in your opinion.

They don't have a strongman who can kill me because I didn't claim my flavor.

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TheSultanOfSlam posted...

Okay so. Scare being inactive in another game is very concerning.

Also i really disliked that train on death yesterday it was very weak. So might want to look more into that red started that train and quickly got a few other votes on it with very little reasoning

What made it weak to you?

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Also Scare, what happened I thought we were friends?

Scare is probably town though, because last game he went after me hard as scum. This game he's already trying to go after me again, and I doubt he does that twice in a row. \

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benjamin3740 posted...

I have been blessed with Puns' power.

*aims gun at Lea*

Why would you reveal that Puns gave you a power >_>

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

They don't have a strongman who can kill me because I didn't claim my flavor.

I mean, I knew this was your answer. Guess I thought maybe you'd have a thought or to in regards to the day.

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Well, I mean Puns and I both agreed that Lea was super bad so if I am right about that it would seem to me they shot the one they expected to die.

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Anyway with our two deaths I am down to 352 scum teams with no other assumptions made.

As the day progresses I will add in assumptions for day 2 only (these are not future proof as of yet) and see if we can get some good possible teams going.

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Leanansidhe posted...

But Puns also called a Chris lynch super tantalizing, so who can truly claim to speak for the dead~

His vote was on you. Corrik's vote was on you. Unfortunately for you your liberal use of the tilde isn't going to save you from the noose today.

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benjamin3740 posted...

What made it weak to you?

It seemed very outta the blue with very little reason. And people who joined kn it including you didnt even really say why... and reds reason was well death hasnt posted much..

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So true story I came around yesterday about 3pm to catch up

Saw Corrik was modkilled, decided not to

Now it's the next day and I still haven't. I will though. Maybe. I have the time to, anyway. I'll determine if I wanna do that tonight or if I wanna post nonsense instead.

Before I do can we elaborate on why we're voting Lea. Like I'm pretty sure the case is she was joking too much-- or at least that's what a bad Corrik post told me-- this is what Lea does every day one by my estimation!

(As she should!)

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I only have time to read one page (50 posts per page)

Which page do I read to best solve the game. Help me out

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So let me plug in my first basic assumption: Lea is scum. That gives me a total of 121 scum teams. Of those 121 teams, IGCD can be scum a total of 36/121 times (and unless I am brain dead everyone has those same odds, just thinking out loud)

So now let's take my strongest hunches from day 1 and add them in one at a time. Ben and Lea are not scum together. It felt like when Lea poked Ben hard for saying I was town in the past it was a psychological attack on town who was right but meant to make him question himself. Just my judgment on the issue, but hey it's my PoE so yeah.

I have also liked Sbell, so he can be removed from this as well for the moment.

Actually fuck me, it is a good thing I think Sbell is town because he was never on this list. Oh Chris, what did you do.

Well...saves me time now I guess.

"Previous pairings I dont think make sense as scum together:

HB/Corrik
Corrik/Puns
Sbell/Corrik
Puns/Sbell"

... Fuck off kills in this game.

Also I re-read my notes and I agree with day 1 Chris, as stated. That HB is firmly town at present.

That leaves 57 possible scum teams.

Death's casual joking with Scare I... think is a bit softer of an unaligned pair, full disclosure, but I'll stick with it.

Now I am down to 51 scum teams.

A bit too many to really dig into all of them, but hopefully the day unfolds in an enlightening way.


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Actually I'll add it would be weird for Red as scum to vote Death as scum out of the blue. Not impossible, but I'll remove those teams as well

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Lea gives not enough numbers for me to determine where to read and Chris has a 133 and 1/3 chance of winning at Sacrifice

Come on guys is there no middle ground

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ScareChan posted...

okay finished topic 1

town
red (you better fucking be town I will be so mad if you're scum and I have your back here), Lea, HB, IGCD

scum

Sbell, Ben

This being one of scares only post is odd....


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Oh right., 5tar/Sultan are likely to not be aligned as well.

So with these assumptions laid out, 40 possible scum team odds based on just these assumptions:

Lea 40/40 (I guess this model is biased)
Lopen: 19/40
IGCD: 18/40
Mzero: 18/40
Red: 15/40
Scare: 14/40
Sultan: 13/40
5tar: 13/40
Death: 10/40

So 9 players + me + sbell + hb ben is the 13 people making up this game.

Based off only my current assumptions the statistically most likely scum partners if lea is scum are mzero/red/igcd.

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There are only like 20 pages.

Pick one.

Or get lynched.

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how did I not say lopen. Poor red, I really want his head.

Lopen/IGCD/Mzero*

Lopen makes sense being there though he has had no interactions to even try to cull

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I said Corrik was scum that rules out a Corrik/Lopen scumteam.

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##Vote:Scare

i feel pretty good about this he played very similar last game and was scum. Still playing rather lazy this game.

Plus i dont think scare has even gave a read at all this game just what i qouted

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To review my assumptions at present:

Sbell, HB, and Ben are town (along with myself if that needed to be said)
5Tar and Sultan unaligned
Death/Scare unaligned
Death/Red unaligned.

I think that's it.

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Breaking down Death's scum teams: Four of them are with IGCD, Four of them are with Lopen, the other two are Sultan/Mzero and Mzero/5tar.

So if Lopen and IGCD are town then Death's scum equity is even more absurdly low.

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