Current Events > Are you all ready for President Bloomberg?

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Balrog0
01/27/20 12:50:44 PM
#1:


I am beginning to make my peace with it

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The Trent
01/27/20 12:52:19 PM
#2:


can't wait for his "i like mike" pins to come out
they'll be unoriginal, but he'll have enough made to drown you in pins

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I Like Toast
01/27/20 12:56:30 PM
#3:


I'll vote for any Democrat besides biden. If Biden somehow wins the nom I'll vote 3rd party again

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mustachedmystic
01/27/20 1:20:09 PM
#4:


I Like Toast posted...
I'll vote for any Democrat besides biden. If Biden somehow wins the nom I'll vote 3rd party again

That's the kind of attitude that'll get Trump reelected.

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#5
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SK8T3R215
01/27/20 1:21:45 PM
#6:


Can't wait for the heel turns of people saying they always felt he was the best candidate.

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K181
01/27/20 1:22:17 PM
#7:


He's spent like $50 million to get into the mid single digits approval rating.

It'll be Biden, Sanders, Warren, Klobuchar, or Pete to get the Dem nomination, and if Bloomberg ran as a third party it would mostly help Trump by splitting the anti-Trump vote. He's not getting the presidency.

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Balrog0
01/27/20 1:23:06 PM
#8:


K181 posted...
He's spent like $50 million to get into the mid single digits approval rating.

It's actually $250 million, and you're saying this like it's a knock against him rather than his biggest strength.

K181 posted...
It'll be Biden, Sanders, Warren, Klobuchar, or Pete to get the Dem nomination, and if Bloomberg ran as a third party it would mostly help Trump by splitting the anti-Trump vote. He's not getting the presidency.

Bloomberg definitely has a better chance than Pete or Amy. And all of the smart money has him over Warren now, too.

SK8T3R215 posted...
Can't wait for the heel turns of people saying they always felt he was the best candidate.

tbf, the democratic establishment seems to like him pretty alright -- he's gotten more endorsements than anyone but Biden since he announced. He's tied with Pete in 538's endorsement tracker now.

There are gonna be a lot of activists that are upset though

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K181
01/27/20 1:23:58 PM
#9:


I Like Toast posted...
I'll vote for any Democrat besides biden. If Biden somehow wins the nom I'll vote 3rd party again

I'll vote against candidate that I agree with 80% of the time to help secure a win for the candidate I disagree with 99% of the time. - I Like Toast, 2020.

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#10
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K181
01/27/20 1:24:42 PM
#11:


Balrog0 posted...
It's actually $250 million, and you're saying this like it's a knock against him rather than his biggest strength.

Bloomberg definitely has a better chance than Pete or Amy. And all of the smart money has him over Warren now, too.

Okay, then it'll be Biden or Sanders.

And yes, it's a huge knock to spend so much and barely move the needle.

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Balrog0
01/27/20 1:25:57 PM
#12:


K181 posted...
Okay, then it'll be Biden or Sanders.

And yes, it's a huge knock to spend so much and barely move the needle.

He's said he'll spend $2 billion or more to win. If you consider the burn rate of his money he's doing way better than any one else, most likely.

Why is it that you learned new information and didn't change your prior convictions at all?

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Balrog0
01/27/20 1:27:53 PM
#13:


shockthemonkey posted...
I want you to lay out his path to the nomination so I can try to poke holes into it to make myself feel better

Bernie will win Iowa and New Hampshire and Biden will win South Carolina. But Biden has no money and South Carolina is only a few days before Super Tuesday. Biden doesn't have time between SC and then to do any real fundraising, so Bloomberg's money will help him pick ups wins in the Super Tuesday states. He's positioning himself to make a fight in California, which he can win because its an incredibly expensive media market and his ad buys are responsible for making it more expensive to buy ads any where right now.

He is more palatable than Bernie is to the DNC types, and his deep pockets mean he can stick to the end without any uncertainty in a way Biden can't.

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K181
01/27/20 1:28:04 PM
#14:


Balrog0 posted...
He's said he'll spend $2 billion or more to win. If you consider the burn rate of his money he's doing way better than any one else, most likely.

Why is it that you learned new information and didn't change your prior convictions at all?

Because the rate of spending to votes earned isn't linear, at a certain point he's just making a bigger pile of burning money that people aren't impressed by. He's had a bigger ad buy and gotten his message out more than anybody, and yet.... really just another ankle biter for the nomination. That suggests a low ceiling and low enthusiasm candidate, all the money in the world can't fix that.

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Jagr_68
01/27/20 1:29:34 PM
#15:


5 out of 5 Americans would rather vote for Trump than Scheming Mike Bloomberg.

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#16
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Balrog0
01/27/20 1:31:15 PM
#17:


K181 posted...
Because the rate of spending to votes earned isn't linear, at a certain point he's just making a bigger pile of burning money that people aren't impressed by.

What are you basing this on?

K181 posted...
He's had a bigger ad buy and gotten his message out more than anybody, and yet.... really just another ankle biter for the nomination. That suggests a low ceiling and low enthusiasm candidate, all the money in the world can't fix that.

He's only been campaigning for two months. His favorabiltiy and unfavorabiltiy ratings have improved in that time. Why wouldn't they continue to do so?

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Alpha218
01/27/20 1:32:55 PM
#18:


No, Im not ready for the guy who pretended stop and frisk wasnt racist for all these years to be president

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Balrog0
01/27/20 1:33:33 PM
#19:


Alpha218 posted...
No, Im not ready for the guy who pretended stop and frisk wasnt racist for all these years to be president

there's still time

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K181
01/27/20 1:36:54 PM
#20:


Balrog0 posted...
What are you basing this on?

He's only been campaigning for two months. His favorabiltiy and unfavorabiltiy ratings have improved in that time. Why wouldn't they continue to do so?

Plenty of candidates have spent a fortune and lost at multiple levels of races, like Oberweis in Illinois and that HP CEO in California. And those were still relatively equal airtime campaigns. Bloomberg's been on the air more than everyone else combined.

And the actual voting starts soon. That's where momentum plays a role and an actual ground campaign is vital. Bloomberg will almost assuredly be shut out of the top three in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada, at which point he'd just be the weirdo spending loads of money on a vanity campaign while the media mostly ignores him per usual.

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Balrog0
01/27/20 1:41:12 PM
#21:


K181 posted...
Plenty of candidates have spent a fortune and lost at multiple levels of races, like Oberweis in Illinois and that HP CEO in California.

I think you're misunderstanding the scope of the money involved, then, to be honest. I don't know Oberweis's campaign, but I do know that Rauner set records in Illinois by spending $6m of his own money in 2014, which is pretty much nothing compared to this.

K181 posted...
And the actual voting starts soon. That's were momentum plays a role and an actual ground campaign is vital. Bloomberg will almost assuredly be shut out of the top three in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada, at which point he'd just be the weirdo spending loads of money on a vanity campaign while the media mostly ignores him per usual.

Bloomberg isn't even trying in any of those states. What other candidate in the past is like this? The closest I can think of is Giuliani in 2008 betting on Florida -- and Giuliani isn't wealthy, and the media didn't stop paying attention to him until after his gambit in Florida failed

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K181
01/27/20 1:44:11 PM
#22:


Rauner ran in a contented primary where nobody was ahead of anybody for the GOP then faced a historically unpopular incumbent in the general, neither of which is the case here. Trump has an entrenched voting block in the general while the Dems have multiple candidates miles ahead of Bloomberg in the primaries.

And yes, he's running a very unique campaign, the closest comparable being a failure that never got off the ground. Not really a recipe for success....

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Balrog0
01/27/20 1:46:13 PM
#23:


K181 posted...
Rauner ran in a contented primary where nobody was ahead of anybody for the GOP then faced a historically unpopular incumbent in the general, neither of which is the case here.

my point in bringing it up wasn't to say anything about Rauner's campaign in relation to this, it was to point out that whatever Oberweis spent isn't worth talking about in the same breath as Bloomberg

K181 posted...
And yes, he's running a very unique campaign, the closest comparable being a failure that never got off the ground. Not really a recipe for success....

Giuliani ran out of money because he lost early contests where he was competing, at least nominally. Bloomberg isn't even on the ballot in the early states. Do you think Bloomberg will run out of money?

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s0nicfan
01/27/20 1:47:52 PM
#24:


K181 posted...
at which point he'd just be the weirdo spending loads of money on a vanity campaign while the media mostly ignores him per usual.

He has his own media network, though.

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Balrog0
01/27/20 1:48:32 PM
#25:


he also has the biggest ground campaign, as far as paid staff goes, at least

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Alpha218
01/27/20 1:51:21 PM
#26:


Do you think missing out on early state delegates is good for momentum?

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Balrog0
01/27/20 1:52:06 PM
#27:


Alpha218 posted...
Do you think missing out on early state delegates is good for momentum?

Your performance in the early states is more about managing expectations than trying to get delegates. It's obviously better to compete and win, but if you're not going to win, it's better not to compete.

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Balrog0
01/27/20 1:53:45 PM
#28:


most importantly, the early state wins are used to get earned media coverage which can be leveraged into financial support that can build out your campaign apparatus in later states

my contention is that Bloomberg is wealthy enough that he needs neither earned media nor financial backing from external sources to stay relevant. there hasn't been any other candidate like that in history, from what I can tell. even rich people who run usually don't like to waste billions of dollars

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K181
01/27/20 1:54:18 PM
#29:


A media network that most people don't follow (and viewed suspiciously by those that do any time they print anything positive about his candidacy) and a ground campaign with no tangible results with only bloated payrolls. And so far the strategy of ad blitzes haven't netted him much more than a polling sample error of improvement.

I'm sure Biden and Sanders (and even the others) and quaking in their boots about him.

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Balrog0
01/27/20 1:55:41 PM
#30:


K181 posted...
A media network that most people don't follow (and viewed suspiciously by those that do any time they print anything positive about his candidacy) and a ground campaign with no tangible results with only bloated payrolls.

I'm sure Biden and Sanders (and even the others) and quaking in their boots about him.

They definitely are lol

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s0nicfan
01/27/20 1:56:31 PM
#31:


K181 posted...
A media network that most people don't follow (and viewed suspiciously by those that do any time they print anything positive about his candidacy) and a ground campaign with no tangible results with only bloated payrolls.

I'm sure Biden and Sanders (and even the others) and quaking in their boots about him.

We're not even in February.



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K181
01/27/20 1:58:01 PM
#32:


s0nicfan posted...
We're not even in February.


...what are you trying to say? Trump was the clear GOP front runner this time last election cycle per your own graph. Unless you're equating it to the February of 2015 which is meaningless.

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s0nicfan
01/27/20 1:59:53 PM
#33:


K181 posted...
...what are you trying to say? Trump was the clear GOP front runner this time last election cycle per your own graph.

That things change quick. Right now the Dem primary looks like Feb 2015, not Feb 2016. Within a quarter Trump went from "that rich guy who came out of nowhere and is wasting his money" to head and shoulders above everyone else.

It would be stupid to write off someone with Bloomberg's level of money, name recognition, and influence simply because he's late to the party. But if you want to think of him as "that rich guy who came out of nowhere and is wasting his money" you're free to do so.

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K181
01/27/20 2:01:58 PM
#34:


s0nicfan posted...
That things change quick. Right now the Dem primary looks like Feb 2015, not Feb 2016. Within a quarter Trump went from "that rich guy who came out of nowhere and is wasting his money" to head and shoulders above everyone else.

It would be stupid to write off someone with Bloomberg's level of money, name recognition, and influence simply because he's late to the party.

You're comparing polling taking over a year before any primary votes with polling taking a month before any primary votes. You are missing the point so hard that it's laughable. The two aren't comparable in the slightest.

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s0nicfan
01/27/20 2:03:01 PM
#35:


K181 posted...
You're comparing polling taking over a year before any primary votes with polling taking a month before any primary votes. You are missing the point so hard that it's laughable. The two aren't comparable in the slightest.

Keep telling yourself that.

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Balrog0
01/27/20 2:03:04 PM
#36:


I mean, what I draw from that is that even though Trump was up +16 at this point in 2016, it was still a drawn out primary with multiple potential break outs for a couple different candidates over the months.

Biden is up, what, +5 over Bernie?

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Balrog0
01/27/20 2:05:00 PM
#37:


actually

if you look at the RCP averages, Bloomberg is up as much as Bernie is since he got in the race

he's gone from 2.5 to 7.7 in the same time span Bernie has gone from 18.8 to 23.4

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K181
01/27/20 2:05:25 PM
#38:


Balrog0 posted...
I mean, what I draw from that is that even though Trump was up +16 at this point in 2016, it was still a drawn out primary with multiple potential break outs for a couple different candidates over the months.

Biden is up, what, +5 over Bernie?

That's an argument that Biden doesn't have the nomination locked up, which is very true, not that someone else has a realistic chance to frogjump over multiple candidates well ahead or slightly ahead of them.

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Balrog0
01/27/20 2:06:11 PM
#39:


K181 posted...
That's an argument that Biden doesn't have the nomination locked up, which is very true, not that someone else has a realistic chance to frogjump over multiple candidates well ahead or slightly ahead of them.

Agreed. Everything else that I've laid out over several posts are the reasons why Bloomberg will jump the other candidates. Biden's weakness is a necessary but not sufficient condition.

And to be clear, only one candidate that isn't Bernie or Biden is arguably ahead of Bloomberg.

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#40
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Balrog0
01/27/20 2:15:46 PM
#41:


Godnorgosh posted...
Bloomberg hasn't had nearly as much time to build momentum as the other candidates, and that's assuming he'll continue to gain at a steady rate. And we don't even know if that will happen.

It's true that we can't literally predict the future, but what reason is there to doubt that it will continue to rise?

As far as ups and downs go, Bloomberg's rise has been a lot more steady than, say, Bernie's for instance.

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#42
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J E S U S
01/27/20 2:26:10 PM
#43:


Imagine all the dumb things hell try to ban

not to mention he already pledged billions of tax payer money to black people only. Since you know, theyre the only minority

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#44
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Balrog0
01/27/20 2:32:10 PM
#45:


shockthemonkey posted...
If Biden wins Iowa, Nevada, and South Carolina then its doubtful Bloomberg has any shot.

yeah if Biden sweeps the early states, Bloomberg loses before he even gets a chance to compete

that's not as fun to talk about, though (and seems less likely by the day)

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Mecha Sonic
01/27/20 2:33:39 PM
#46:


I Like Toast posted...
I'll vote for any Democrat besides biden. If Biden somehow wins the nom I'll vote 3rd party again

why the fuck

so dumb

you would vote for BLOOMBERG? over BIDEN?

WTF

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Antifar
01/27/20 2:36:56 PM
#47:


Bloomberg's presence resulting in a brokered convention seems plausible. I'm skeptical that he'll be able to win an outright majority swooping into the race late in the way he has.

The most recent poll has him at 6 percent in California, fifth place with five weeks to go.
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Mecha Sonic
01/27/20 2:38:12 PM
#48:


Antifar posted...
Bloomberg's presence resulting in a brokered convention seems plausible. I'm skeptical that he'll be able to win an outright majority swooping into the race late in the way he has.

brokered convention = biden win dont you think?

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#49
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Mecha Sonic
01/27/20 2:40:21 PM
#50:


shockthemonkey posted...
If Sanders and Bloomberg have the most delegates, do you think Biden is going to magically win the nomination?

if sanders is #1 and bloomberg is #2, bloomberg wins

if sanders is #1 and biden is #2, biden wins

that's my expectation

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