Current Events > Can someone convince me on his Bernie or warren can win the primary

(+) Yeah! (+)

Biden has the biggest base and will basically win like trump did in the primaries. Warren and Bernie pull from the same base not including the minor candidates too.

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Bernie is not unpopular in the polls and he has very strong groundwork and caucusing; basically you can argue he has the most enthused base

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Doe posted...

Bernie is not unpopular in the polls and he has very strong groundwork and caucusing; basically you can argue he has the most enthused base

Im not disagreeing with that, but is it strong enough to win states he didnt win last primary.

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JBaLLEN66 posted...

Im not disagreeing with that, but is it strong enough to win states he didnt win last primary.

he's now number one in california

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Sanders is in second and the candidate in front of him is prone to saying real dumb shit at any given moment on the campaign trail. I'm not exactly confident, but you can't rule it out.
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I can't. It's entirely possible that they cannot win the primary.

The most viable path for one of them is to win the early rural states, and build the momentum needed to win the large blue states. It's a mirror of Obama building momentum with the early rural states and then winning the southern states. One of them grabs the torch, the other fades into the background and stops splitting votes.

The problem is that Buttigieg is sucking the air out of the room in the early states. He's in strong competition to win them. And he himself cannot beat Biden because he isn't favored in any states beyond the early ones at all, where he's spending all of his money. Even in his home state of Indiana, he trails Bernie. Buttigieg is a dead-end and a waste of Iowa/NH if he wins them.

I think that Biden automatically wins the nomination if a credible candidate doesn't win both Iowa and NH at the start. He has the largest base in the party as a former Vice President and a callback to Obama.
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