Board 8 > English Literature Mafia Topic 24: Denouement

(+) Yeah! (+)

Like.

on the one hand, here's a nebulous black box with multiple unknowns and is a prime opportunity for scum to fuck with our heads

on the other hand, there's 24 topics of content with 4 dead mafia

If you wanna discard it that's your prerogative I just think your "no merit" thing is at best narrow minded and at worst condescending is all.

It should weigh in, even if it's relatively more minor to you. All data should be considered. Your random "aha!" about random post in day 3 is not necessarily objectively more useful, even if it makes you go "aha!"
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I don't think saying that a mafia argument has no merit is condescending

Maybe if it was more of a personal read or something. But this one is pretty mechanical

Also I think choosing to look over a lot a lot of known data points instead of putting stock into a single, unknown data point is kind of the opposite of narrow minded

I mean I'm skeptical you're using your time well by rereading the game, either. I think me probing SBell made him more clear as scum, for me, than any random thing I'm gonna find from some arbitrary point earlier in the game. If you'd done the same to one of us you might feel more sure than those previous days make you.

Saying a mafia argument has no merit is condescending if you don't adequately explain it and thorughly defeat counterpoints. Like if I said you rereading day 1 has no merit you'd probably think it was-- I could argue it likely has less merit than the optimal strategy, but you will probably find something in there that clears things up, so I'm not going to go that far with it.

ANYWAY. This has crossed into being more distracting than even tangentially useful so I'll stop.
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Glad we finally got there

Nice job calling the entire mafia game "arbitrary" though lol

Or rather, "random" with "arbitrary" points

It is arbitrary, though. Things you think are significant may not even matter in the end. There is a lot of noise in a game of mafia. People are always eager to claim they caught a "slip" but sometimes it doesn't matter and you caught nothing but a normal post you thought was significant. With so many mislynches after coasting through 4 scum, it feels kinda like RNG right now.

You have to get there somewhere, but say we both come to the same conclusion that SBell is scum, and he is, who is more likely 'right?' in how they came to it?

Say Tom actually did target him to draw ths kill, am I more right than you in how I came to the conclusion or did I just get lucky by considering something that should not have worked? If Tom didn't draw the kill, was it an angle not worth considering, even if I reached the right conclusion? I'm not sure. Tom's relative suspicion of SBell, and by extension Chris's may have been useful in getting there, even if the kill draw was not the exact right avenue to lock it down.
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You know what's really arbitrary? Data points we don't even know the actual value of! :^)

You don't know the actual 'value' of some post you think is scummy or townlike either, if we're talking data. You weigh it based on some value in your head, but in the end it's just words.

If you're cutting the game to data, the meat of your analysis should be on ability uses and votes (and the posts with them). Rereading a whole game is not really what I'd call 'data driven' analysis.
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You're expanding way too far on my use of the word "data"

I'm not jamming all the past posts into an algorithm and generating a deterministic vote

Also I'm not rereading the entire game by the way

I'm just looking at pertinent things i.e. dead scum and votes and mentions of currently living players

Note I'm not saying going at the game in a purely data based way is even necessarily better play, just that I think what you're doing seems a bit unfocused to be considered as surgical and analytical as you're making it out to be.

When I call some post you "aha!" about arbitrary, I just mean that all 3 of the town in the game are not about to come to the same conclusion, necessarily, when they read it. It doesn't mean it has no value, but it's not objectively a better way to find scum or anything either than speculating about the likely value of an unknown night action, just because words you can read are able to be read and night actions are guessing. Words you're guessing at interpretation and significance to some extent, whereas night actions you're guessing at targets based on who used them. There's speculation eirher way.
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And if it's more focused than I think then my bad. It's just taking forever so I assumed you were digesting a lot.
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Lopen posted...

surgical and analytical as you're making it out to be.

I don't feel like I've really expressed this idea but maybe I did by accident

You took exception to me calling it "arbitrary" and have been rather dismissive in general of what I'm doing today with my boots on the ground. It does lend itself to a certain vibe of projected importance and authority, unintended as it may be.
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can you reiterate how you went from yesterday saying if we follow Tom it would be either Puns or Sheep to now today saying if we follow Tom it's most likely SBell

I mean I just think it's a bit silly to call the entire mafia game arbitrary when like, it is the sole source of everything we have to make decisions from

And you also seem to have this idea that I'm going to read the whole game and then come back with ONE post where I go "Here it is, boys. Topic 12 post 165, line 3 solves the game. ##vote"

It's more a summation of notes

(I couldn't resist looking up that post and trust me it definitely didn't solve the game)

another thing, Lopen is that if I ultimately decide not to lynch you I also have to convince Ulti which I am sure cannot be done with just pointing at Tom

Puns was based on the "unscanned list" which I discarded as the theory when you cited that Chris post with town picks yesterday, and I'd recalled Tom randomly mentioning Chris town reads as a total non sequitur. It was a big part of why I got off of you as a lynch.

Sheep was based on the "Chris is town list" which admittedly SBell also fit under, but I think I thought Tom might over respect the cop scan on him at first. But honestly if the final four was missing you or Ulti and had Sheep + SBell here I'd probably not be arguing it so strongly

SBell is based on "Tom's suspicions" and "Chris is town list"

I don't want to overstate it though that isn't the entirety of my grief with SBell or even the biggest factor. Him not killing me yesterday is probably my biggest gripe, especially after doubling down on suspecting me the whole game (while saying maybe I'm town yesterday, btw). Deferring to Ben with two randos is one thing but deferring to you when I'm there? Don't see town SBell doing that.
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turbopuns3 posted...

another thing, Lopen is that if I ultimately decide not to lynch you I also have to convince Ulti which I am sure cannot be done with just pointing at Tom

You should reread today after you read the rest of the game if you think that's what I'm mostly pushing at him with.

This is Ulti "omg flavor trap" stuff in terms of significance. Admittedly I just talked with you an hour about the merit of it so I understand why that would be your perception, but there has been more to it for sure.
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Sure but Ulti is not going to hear anything that comes from you either most likely. I'm talking about my own needs

Lopen posted...

Sheep was based on the "Chris is town list" which admittedly SBell also fit under, but I think I thought Tom might over respect the cop scan on him at first. But honestly if the final four was missing you or Ulti and had Sheep + SBell here I'd probably not be arguing it so strongly

Also keep in mind the post you cited had an Hb vote in it explicitly, so that probably helped lean me that way
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turbopuns3 posted...

Sure but Ulti is not going to hear anything that comes from you either most likely. I'm talking about my own needs

Eh, I think you may be slightly underestimating my whittling away of Ulti's inherent fear of getting got by scum Lopen

But fair enough

Course maybe secretly the answer will be Ulti and you gotta convince us to unvote each other and put our differences aside...
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@Obellisk

what was going through your head when you posted this

Dowolf, we lynch a scum red and wake up day three without a damning scan on another scum member, I'll let you lynch me, how Bout that?

Leafeon13N posted...

Also I'm willing to assume SK but if there is something dumb like Survivor I'm going to be really upset.

Survivor is boring.

lol

turbopuns3 posted...

@Obellisk

what was going through your head when you posted this

Dowolf, we lynch a scum red and wake up day three without a damning scan on another scum member, I'll let you lynch me, how Bout that?

Resting on the laurels of others. Accepting that no matter what I do ill always be considered scum and figuring two dead scum, we can afford a mislynch.
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and can you articulate why you feel ulti is town? and me?

I just got this sinking worry that Ulti is BP SK who can't be caught by scanners who shot Lopen night 1, Lopen didn't die because he is mafia BP, so ulti just kept shooting him to hide himself, and town is already in an unwinnable position

Hopefully this just means I've been thinking about the game too much

Obellisk posted...

Resting on the laurels of others. Accepting that no matter what I do ill always be considered scum and figuring two dead scum, we can afford a mislynch.

Why didn't you go through with it btw

turbopuns3 posted...

Obellisk posted...

Resting on the laurels of others. Accepting that no matter what I do ill always be considered scum and figuring two dead scum, we can afford a mislynch.

Why didn't you go through with it btw

I can't lynch myself.
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turbopuns3 posted...

and can you articulate why you feel ulti is town? and me?

Ulti has portrayed himself as town practically all game. Maybe I ate up his good guy attitude? Maybe I wanted to believe that only a town Ulti would put this much effort to try to do good. Also I just saw two of his scum games.

Puns, I've just never really gotten any seriously bad vibes from you these last few days. I've appreciated your content and felt you were actually trying to solve the game. I think a lot of my belief in you was the opening miller claim, even though It was a lie I'm not letting that play make me distrust your intentions.

As for scum lopen AND SK Ulti. I mean that's a rabbit hole not even my brain could conjure. I don't want to think that. :(
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I just like to share conspiracies when they float through my mind, it's fun

Lopen posted...

turbopuns3 posted...

The only person Lopen should want to kill is Ulti. However, because nobody else would want to kill Ulti, Lopen can't kill him so he'd have to no kill.

Also I disagree with this.

While you can argue I'd only want to kill Ulti I'm not sure this is much better. SBell has been lightly (not as heavily as Ulti, despite his claims, else I'd be dead) anti-me this whole game too. As scum trying to reason out both of them seems less reasonable than trying to just sell puns on SBell, to me. I think saying I'd no kill is overthinking it and I'd gamble the risk of people trying to pin it on me that Ulti. But maybe that would be a misplay.

Jumping back a minute.

I feel like that would be a completely suicidal gamble for you. I never shoot Ulti. SBell never shoots Ulti. I think it's that simple and you'd be crazy to try it.

I think no kill is your only option that doesn't auto lose

turbopuns3 posted...

I just like to share conspiracies when they float through my mind, it's fun

But it's such a depressing theory. Like there is literally no hope. Unless you have a pocket dayvig shot that doesn't end the day.
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Lopen what was your reasoning again for lynching sheep over cam on the sheep/cam day

something which just occurred to me as I'm reaching the point of Ben's reveal.

scum instantly knew he was lying about 3 guilty scans

interesting

well I guess theoretically Ulti could be guilty scanning but that's doubtful I think

turbopuns3 posted...

I think no kill is your only option that doesn't auto lose

Meh. I think trying WIFOM WIFOM WIFOM and just going with it is fine. This looks p autolose on paper too. Frankly if I'm scum the idea that I'd allow the game to get to this configuration with paranoid Ulti alive and SBell alive at endgame is kinda laughable.

Realistically though I think you need to go back further in the game to realize that like... me as scum really makes no sense with a 5 scum team. Let's go back to when Ben claimed cop, okay? I tried to get Ben killed. Let's say that works. He had damning scans on my two scummates, and he flips cop. We probably just lose immediately there. We lynch death and Pez. You can say "oh that was your long con too scummy to be scum play" but consider the risk/reward that I as godfather have to evem trying that. I wasn't even under any real suspicion to that point.

Consider also I have to be godfather if I'm scum. The cop is the last guy I'm giving a damn about. There's no way I'm making that move. I just play like a sheep like Ulti and Corrik. YEAHHH TWO SCANS HIGH FIVE. Blah blah.

I mean yeah you can say oh this is some elaborate gambit but it's just a lot of hoops to jump through to make the game tougher than it needs to be. Playing conservatively would just be easier. It's basically the same counterargument you were making to you yourself being scum, puns, yesterday, but like x10.
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turbopuns3 posted...

well I guess theoretically Ulti could be guilty scanning but that's doubtful I think

Technically scum didnt know there were no millers in the set up either if we're going that way
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Lopen posted...

Technically scum didnt know there were no millers in the set up either if we're going that way

Because town fakes a villager claim as miller so often >_<

I had already rescinded my miller claim a whole day before

Lopen posted...

Frankly if I'm scum the idea that I'd allow the game to get to this configuration with paranoid Ulti alive and SBell alive at endgame is kinda laughable.

and you called ME conceited?

"The mere thought that I'd wind up in an unfavorable situation is laughable" lol

I mean here we are with you trying to lynch SBell so why would it be laughable for you to be here if you were scum exactly? Sincerely

I mean Ulti has been attached to my leg like a rabid Yorkshire terrier all game. If I'm controlling the kills there's no way he's still here especially if I'm the innocent scanning mafia. It's not being conceited it's just common sense.
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turbopuns3 posted...

I mean here we are with you trying to lynch SBell so why would it be laughable for you to be here if you were scum exactly? Sincerely

Who is "we?" Ulti isn't trying to lynch SBell.

I'm basically banking on you being convincing enough to convince Ulti and you coming the conclusion that I'm not the scum. I don't particularly like my chances of survival here.
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