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Nanis23 11/22/18 8:40:51 AM #101: |
So we totally ignore LFF from the SNES poll? Ok then
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TsunamiXXVIII 11/22/18 8:44:17 AM #102: |
Nanis23 posted...
So we totally ignore LFF from the SNES poll? Ok then Oh, no, I've acknowledged that too. But even in 1v1s, CT has never lost to an SNES game, though it was close with ALTTP. --- "Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!" BKSheikah has the power. He is the one. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LeonhartFour 11/22/18 8:47:09 AM #103: |
well every game is getting LFF'd
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red sox 777 11/22/18 9:28:33 AM #104: |
So I've been reading the stats topic from the Link/Cloud 2010 final today. There were a lot of people arguing that Link was a 99% lock to win any contest going forward, that only a perfect storm of highly unusual circumstances could stop him. Well, it's more than 8 years later, and Link hasn't won a single additional contest in his own name. The best victory he's had since was a GOTD contest, and that was almost 8 years ago. 2011 was the last time Link/LoZ won anything in any format. Link's win percentage since that Link/Cloud match is 50% at best, and 0% at worst, depending on how you want to count the different formats.
But we can say that rarely, if ever, have people in this topic been more wrong than the people who said Link had a 99% chance of winning any contest. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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swirIdude 11/22/18 9:42:07 AM #105: |
red sox 777 posted...
There were a lot of people arguing that Link was a 99% lock to win any contest going forward, that only a perfect storm of highly unusual circumstances could stop him. Sounds like they were entirely correct! --- "The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima BKSheikah won Guru, but you know that. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LeonhartFour 11/22/18 9:49:23 AM #106: |
man red sox really can spin any narrative
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charmander6000 11/22/18 9:57:03 AM #107: |
Yeah, I still stand by my 99% chance.
--- CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man Score: 196/256 ... Copied to Clipboard!
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red sox 777 11/22/18 10:13:21 AM #108: |
......
Do people have a different definition of 99% or something? The probability of something big enough happening to dethrone Link is obviously way way higher than 1%. Even before 2010 that was true but after he's hardly won anything at all. If you mean Link has a 99% chance of winning unless something happens to make him lose, well that's obviously true. And completely tautological. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LeonhartFour 11/22/18 10:16:56 AM #109: |
what are Link's odds of winning if no unusual outside circumstances occur?
and Link's "hardly won anything at all" because this is literally only the second Character Battle we've had since 2010 --- ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LeonhartFour 11/22/18 10:18:18 AM #110: |
oh man Pikachu just showed up on the Thanksgiving Day parade
watch out Mega Man Macy's parade boost incoming --- ... Copied to Clipboard!
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HaRRicH 11/22/18 10:19:58 AM #111: |
LeonhartFour posted...
man red sox really can spin any narrative --- Nominate METAL MAN for 20XX! https://imgur.com/Dr4NAeq ... Copied to Clipboard!
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red sox 777 11/22/18 10:27:39 AM #112: |
LeonhartFour posted...
what are Link's odds of winning if no unusual outside circumstances occur? Define unusual. Bandwagons and rallies happen more often than not since 2007, so I would not call them unusual. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LeonhartFour 11/22/18 10:28:50 AM #113: |
considering Link has only lost 3 times in 16 years and only one of them has come as a result of the character being naturally stronger those would be unusual circumstances
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red sox 777 11/22/18 10:35:28 AM #114: |
I mean if Link loses you can always call it unusual, so Link's winrate in "normal" circumstances is not particularly interesting or coherent. Link's winrate across all contests is obviously way below 99% and if we ran 100 more contests, he would not win anything close to 99 of them.
--- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LeonhartFour 11/22/18 10:39:19 AM #115: |
all right I guess you're just not going to give a straight answer
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red sox 777 11/22/18 10:45:03 AM #116: |
Your question can't be answered unless you can give a definition of unusual that isn't tied to outcomes (since Link losing can be unusual by definition).
--- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LeonhartFour 11/22/18 10:46:25 AM #117: |
you know what question people are trying to ask but you just choose to be evasive for whatever the reason
what are the chances someone has enough natural strength to beat Link this year? --- ... Copied to Clipboard!
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red sox 777 11/22/18 10:49:15 AM #118: |
LeonhartFour posted...
you know what question people are trying to ask but you just choose to be evasive for whatever the reason 20%? Link won 6 out of 7 character battles that didn't involve anything super weird, and it's been a long time since the last time we've seen him in action, so 20% seems fair. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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charmander6000 11/22/18 11:23:07 AM #119: |
In 2007 L-Block was the only character to get a rally strong enough to defeat Link (1/127 chance)
In 2013 Draven, Mewtwo and Solid Snake got rallies strong enough to defeat Link, though the later two was only a result of Draven, but let's keep them (3/242 chance) The other 7 contests had no rallies strong enough to defeat Link (0/577 chance) Even if you throw in characters that might be legitimate stronger than Link (Cloud, Sephiroth, Solid Snake, Crono), I still stand by my 99% chance of Link victory. --- CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man Score: 196/256 ... Copied to Clipboard!
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red sox 777 11/22/18 11:25:56 AM #120: |
That's not the question. We're talking about the chance of the field beating Link, not any single particular character.
--- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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charmander6000 11/22/18 11:27:29 AM #121: |
That is the entire field in terms of rallying, am I missing someone?
--- CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man Score: 196/256 ... Copied to Clipboard!
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red sox 777 11/22/18 11:31:58 AM #122: |
What do you mean by L-Block having a 1/127 chance of beating Link?
And hint, try doing your analysis for Cloud. If you end up with Cloud having a 98% chance of winning the contest, you're doing something wrong. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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charmander6000 11/22/18 11:39:46 AM #123: |
I mean there was a 1/127 chance of any character that could defeat Link through rallying, if you only consider 2007.
It's similar for all characters, rallying is unlikely outside of small ones in close matches which Link typically won't be part of one. --- CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man Score: 196/256 ... Copied to Clipboard!
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red sox 777 11/22/18 11:46:25 AM #124: |
charmander6000 posted...
I mean there was a 1/127 chance of any character that could defeat Link through rallying, if you only consider 2007. But there's 127 characters, so the odds of none of them succeeding would be (126/127)^127. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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ZeldaTPLink 11/22/18 11:49:34 AM #125: |
Probability is dumb in this kind of thing.
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HaRRicH 11/22/18 11:57:01 AM #126: |
red sox 777 posted...
Define unusual. Bandwagons and rallies happen more often than not since 2007, so I would not call them unusual. red sox 777 posted... Link won 6 out of 7 character battles that didn't involve anything super weird Is super weird like unusual? --- Nominate METAL MAN for 20XX! https://imgur.com/Dr4NAeq ... Copied to Clipboard!
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OrangeCrush980 11/22/18 11:57:18 AM #127: |
red sox 777 posted...
I mean if Link loses you can always call it unusual, so Link's winrate in "normal" circumstances is not particularly interesting or coherent. Link's winrate across all contests is obviously way below 99% and if we ran 100 more contests, he would not win anything close to 99 of them. I think we need SBAllen to test this. 4 character contests a year for 25 years. --- Courage is the magic that turns dreams into reality. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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charmander6000 11/22/18 11:59:52 AM #128: |
Again, I'm not claiming that a character has a 1/127 chance at winning (aka beating Link) via rallying, I'm saying the combined chances for all characters to beating Link in a contest via rallying is 1/127. Though to be fair that is only one sample, using multiple samples (10 contests) it's closer to 1/300.
--- CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man Score: 196/256 ... Copied to Clipboard!
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red sox 777 11/22/18 12:00:59 PM #129: |
charmander6000 posted...
Again, I'm not claiming that a character has a 1/127 chance at winning (aka beating Link) via rallying, I'm saying the combined chances for all characters to beating Link in a contest via rallying is 1/127. Though to be fair that is only one sample, using multiple samples (10 contests) it's closer to 1/300. What? So you're saying a 1/127 chance has happened in 2 out of 9 contests? --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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red sox 777 11/22/18 12:02:51 PM #130: |
HaRRicH posted...
red sox 777 posted...Define unusual. Bandwagons and rallies happen more often than not since 2007, so I would not call them unusual. Something like that, but it's Leonhart's terminology that he's insisting on, not mine. As I said, I consider the whole concept incoherent unless someone can put together a better definition. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LeonhartFour 11/22/18 12:04:25 PM #131: |
you know what people mean because you knew which contests were the exceptions without me having to say so
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charmander6000 11/22/18 12:11:51 PM #132: |
red sox 777 posted...
charmander6000 posted...Again, I'm not claiming that a character has a 1/127 chance at winning (aka beating Link) via rallying, I'm saying the combined chances for all characters to beating Link in a contest via rallying is 1/127. Though to be fair that is only one sample, using multiple samples (10 contests) it's closer to 1/300. ~1/300, but yes. Looks like we've been (un)lucky. --- CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man Score: 196/256 ... Copied to Clipboard!
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RPGlord95 11/22/18 12:24:04 PM #133: |
Too many advanced metrics
--- Whiskey Nick on his cell phone "Every man's heart one day beats its final beat." -Warrior ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Safer_777 11/22/18 12:43:25 PM #134: |
I have some opinions for future contests.
1)Best character that has appeared in Smash franchise. 2)Best video game company. 3)Worst video game(only games that are eligible are the ones that have under 50 score in Metacritic) Which you would prefere? --- So why we exist? What happens when we stop existing? ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LeonhartFour 11/22/18 12:44:31 PM #135: |
"worst" anything is a bad idea
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Ranticoot 11/22/18 12:45:37 PM #136: |
i don't think i ever want a contest that's going to be 90% nintendo vs. nintendo matches and link is still eligible to win it
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Nanis23 11/22/18 12:47:10 PM #137: |
LeonhartFour posted...
"worst" anything is a bad idea What about worst GameFAQs user Maybe I would be able to win something for once in my life --- 3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066 ... Copied to Clipboard!
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charmander6000 11/22/18 12:59:46 PM #138: |
Character of the decade
2B for champion? --- CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man Score: 196/256 ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Safer_777 11/22/18 1:15:01 PM #139: |
@charmander6000 I actually like this idea. Characters that have debuted from 2010 to 2019!
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ZenOfThunder 11/22/18 1:19:16 PM #140: |
charmander6000 posted...
Character of the decade @MetalmindStats this could be a good next project? --- drooling while eating ... Copied to Clipboard!
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swirIdude 11/22/18 1:20:21 PM #141: |
Nanis23 posted...
LeonhartFour posted..."worst" anything is a bad idea You might win a match or two but there are too many luminaries who will take the title from you. --- "The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima BKSheikah won Guru, but you know that. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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ZeldaTPLink 11/22/18 1:47:37 PM #142: |
Safer_777 posted...
@charmander6000 I actually like this idea. Characters that have debuted from 2010 to 2019! Hmm... Linkle? ... Copied to Clipboard!
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red sox 777 11/22/18 2:23:49 PM #143: |
charmander6000 posted...
red sox 777 posted...charmander6000 posted...Again, I'm not claiming that a character has a 1/127 chance at winning (aka beating Link) via rallying, I'm saying the combined chances for all characters to beating Link in a contest via rallying is 1/127. Though to be fair that is only one sample, using multiple samples (10 contests) it's closer to 1/300. The easier explanation is that your arbitrarily chosen number of 1/300 is off, not that we've been ridiculously unlucky to have that chance hit twice in 9 times. I submit the evidence, the best we have, suggests the probability of this kind of event is around 2/9. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Safer_777 11/22/18 2:43:02 PM #144: |
@ZeldaTPLink Yeah! Link with tits! I support this!
--- So why we exist? What happens when we stop existing? ... Copied to Clipboard!
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red sox 777 11/22/18 3:39:40 PM #145: |
The probability of a 1/300 event hitting twice in 9 tries is around 1/3000. Very strong evidence against this being the true probability of such an event happening.
Further proof is that no one here acts surprised anymore when there is a big rally. But if people really believed it was a 1% chance, people would be a lot more surprised. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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HaRRicH 11/22/18 3:49:34 PM #146: |
I'm not sure of much in a Character of the Decade contest, but I'm certain Linkle doesn't win.
--- Nominate METAL MAN for 20XX! https://imgur.com/Dr4NAeq ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Safer_777 11/22/18 3:50:57 PM #147: |
I am trying to think who would be strong. Guess 2B or something? I mean do we have any character in this contest that is after 2010 and has some power?
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MarquessLaus 11/22/18 4:17:46 PM #148: |
Venom Snake
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Mac Arrowny 11/22/18 6:54:05 PM #149: |
Even a character of the decade contest for the previous decade doesn't have much for strong characters. There's the FFX and KH casts, Dante, Kratos, and...?
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KamikazePotato 11/22/18 6:54:45 PM #150: |
2B, apparently
--- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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