Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1298

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KamikazePotato
11/07/18 1:40:40 PM
#302:


Perfect
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
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Janus5k
11/07/18 1:40:54 PM
#303:


Based on the last half hour, Ike takes the lead around 6:20 EST

I think. Didn't check that super precisely.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
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ZenOfThunder
11/07/18 1:43:53 PM
#304:


JANUS I JUST MADE A GIF

Don't do this to me
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KamikazePotato
11/07/18 1:47:24 PM
#305:


There are 63 updates left.
Ike needs to cut 7.67 votes per update to win.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
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KamikazePotato
11/07/18 1:52:51 PM
#306:


Phoenix is losing really badly in the US and Canada, so this could get rough.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
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Janus5k
11/07/18 1:53:15 PM
#307:


well you all wanted a turnabout
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
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KamikazePotato
11/07/18 2:02:39 PM
#308:


Janus5k posted...
well you all wanted a turnabout

I was pretty comfy with how things were going!
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
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BlAcK TuRtLe
11/07/18 2:06:25 PM
#309:


Oh wow, 2B ended up looking pretty good here. 54% on Ness is no joke, especially with all the shit tier Smash characters doing well this year.
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BKSheikah, my hat is off to you. Welcome to the Guru Champions Club
lol xstats
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ZenOfThunder
11/07/18 2:08:20 PM
#310:


do you think 2B will hold close to where she's at now 5 years from now? 10?

is her design iconic enough and her game good/respected enough to stop her from falling off a cliff?
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KamikazePotato
11/07/18 2:21:46 PM
#311:


Ike has gotten the lead under 400.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BvKoQaAZgf8" data-time="

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KamikazePotato
11/07/18 2:22:14 PM
#312:


ZenOfThunder posted...
do you think 2B will hold close to where she's at now 5 years from now? 10?

is her design iconic enough and her game good/respected enough to stop her from falling off a cliff?

She'll hold onto as much of her strength much as all these other recent not-from-the-90s characters have.
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davidponte
11/07/18 2:25:21 PM
#313:


Phoenix pls
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The final Undisputed Champion in UCA history.
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OrangeCrush980
11/07/18 2:26:05 PM
#314:


ZenOfThunder posted...
do you think 2B will hold close to where she's at now 5 years from now? 10?

is her design iconic enough and her game good/respected enough to stop her from falling off a cliff?


Design iconic enough? There's a solid chance.

Her game good/respected enough? Probably not. It's very hard for a newer non-Nintendo game to resonate with this site long term, and Nier Automata isn't good enough to pull it off IMO.
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Averia
11/07/18 2:27:51 PM
#315:


No need to worry, we have already seen this contest that 500 barriers can be bent but not broken.
Phoenix has it.
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Janus5k
11/07/18 2:28:18 PM
#316:


Ike power hour OVER

probably not
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DoctorJimmy133
11/07/18 2:28:21 PM
#317:


+11 for Phoenix there. Might this be the first match decided by the registered user bonus?
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If all else fails use fire.
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davidponte
11/07/18 2:29:46 PM
#318:


This is the first match of the contest where I've gotten somebody I know who doesn't use gamefaqs to come and vote
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KamikazePotato
11/07/18 2:30:26 PM
#319:


If registered voters decide this, it'll be in Ike's favor. Damn forged evidence.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
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pjbasis
11/07/18 2:35:07 PM
#320:


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Safer_777
11/07/18 2:35:30 PM
#321:


So Ike will win based on t his?
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KamikazePotato
11/07/18 2:36:18 PM
#322:


pjbasis posted...
Uh Phoenix still got this right

https://media1.tenor.com/images/130280e4ea4e557e14885dc9159c120a/tenor.gif?itemid=5225470
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
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TheCodeisBosco
11/07/18 2:37:47 PM
#323:


I feel like this is too little too late from Ike to be honest. Still though, great match. Also really impressed with 2B's performance.
---
Now crack that combination:
27 99 23.
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KamikazePotato
11/07/18 2:37:59 PM
#324:


Safer_777 posted...
So Ike will win based on t his?

Too early to tell. The thing about comebacks is that they need to keep up a very consistent pace over an extended period of time. Even just a half hour of Phoenix gaining back some ground would hurt Ike's chances significantly. He has been going well over the amount of votes needed when he makes a cut, though.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
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DoctorJimmy133
11/07/18 2:38:59 PM
#325:


KamikazePotato posted...
There are 63 updates left.
Ike needs to cut 7.67 votes per update to win.

Down to 7.47 per update votes over 53 updates.
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If all else fails use fire.
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Janus5k
11/07/18 2:39:07 PM
#326:


Nearly collapsing but holding on for dear life and living to fight again would be the most Phoenix thing ever.
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ZenOfThunder
11/07/18 2:40:40 PM
#327:


n2VOp6w
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KamikazePotato
11/07/18 2:41:20 PM
#328:


Zen in rare form today

Even rarer than usual
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
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ZenOfThunder
11/07/18 2:42:48 PM
#329:


JtllI47

shots fired from allen

(response for my ren/joker ticket)
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KamikazePotato
11/07/18 2:44:00 PM
#330:


DoctorJimmy133 posted...
KamikazePotato posted...
There are 63 updates left.
Ike needs to cut 7.67 votes per update to win.

Down to 7.47 per update votes over 53 updates.

And the last 20 minutes of stalling has already brought it back up to 7.61 votes per update. Comebacks are hard in this format.

It's only going to get worse for Phoenix as more of Europe goes to sleep, though...
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
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DoctorJimmy133
11/07/18 2:49:37 PM
#331:


ZenOfThunder posted...
JtllI47

shots fired from allen

(response for my ren/joker ticket)

I guess a better Joker pic might have made the difference. Today's results show that recent Japanese characters with great designs can be midcarders.

At least the picture he got wasn't as blatantly unfair as "Ren Amamiya"
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If all else fails use fire.
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KamikazePotato
11/07/18 2:52:28 PM
#332:


To try and distract myself from the current proceedings (why can't Phoenix ever have a normal match augh), time for some numbers.

Kirby (2013c) has a strength of 35.60 against Base Link.
Isaac (2013c) has a strength of 23.19 against Base Link.
Kirby67.43%36,385
Isaac32.57%17,575
Kirby wins with 67.43% of the vote!

At a glance, today seems like a pretty good result for Kirby. Let's do a bit of a deeper dive.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7264-division-4-round-1-terra-vs-charizard
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7315-division-4-round-2-charizard-vs-bowser

With these two results, Bowser is expected to get 59.21% against Terra.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5168-character-battle-ix-division-3-round-1-kirby-vs-terra-vs

Here's a match where Kirby faced Terra. Unfortunately it was an LFF match, which doesn't make for great stats, but based on contest history Nintendo LFF is generally severe. Based on some comparisons I ran in a few other matches, I'm going to say that 75% of Peach's votes would have gone to Kirby.

Doing so has Kirby beating Terra with 59.20%.

So...I guess Bowser beats Kirby by like 50.01%?
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KamikazePotato
11/07/18 3:06:42 PM
#333:


"If you check the Court Record, you'll find that day vote comebacks are considered illegal in this contest."

https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/aceattorney/images/f/fd/DD_Phoenix_and_Document.gif/revision/latest?cb=20140827210826
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
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ZeldaTPLink
11/07/18 3:17:22 PM
#334:


Phoenix just bluffed and managed to delay the veredict for a fee more hours.
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pezzicle
11/07/18 3:18:09 PM
#335:


when does the match end again? 7pm EST?
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Tribe Time!
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_Dog_
11/07/18 3:18:36 PM
#336:


ZenOfThunder posted...
JtllI47

shots fired from allen

(response for my ren/joker ticket)

What adjustments were made?
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The Big Problem with the Pokemon anime:
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/217-pokemon/75265633
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ZenOfThunder
11/07/18 3:18:42 PM
#337:


7pm EST, yes
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ZeldaTPLink
11/07/18 3:18:51 PM
#338:


pezzicle posted...
when does the match end again? 7pm EST?


Yes, I assuming I get USA timezones.
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ZeldaTPLink
11/07/18 3:20:05 PM
#339:


Ike now needs 9.7 votes/update.
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TheCodeisBosco
11/07/18 3:26:58 PM
#340:


ZeldaTPLink posted...
Ike now needs 9.7 votes/update.


Ouch. Yep, this is done.
---
Now crack that combination:
27 99 23.
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The Owner of FF9
11/07/18 3:31:03 PM
#341:


ZenOfThunder posted...
JtllI47

shots fired from allen

(response for my ren/joker ticket)

yet he still hasn't fixed pick percentages or personal brackets ...
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Character Battle X
Current Score: 74/88 "..."
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mnkboy907
11/07/18 3:36:37 PM
#342:


Thank you for stalling, Nick.
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BK_Sheikah? More like BYIG_Sheikah.
https://imgur.com/gw03gl7 - Number of people that D'awwed: 102
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SwiftyDC
11/07/18 3:52:19 PM
#343:


LOL at Ike losing. Been away from the contest for majority of Round 2.
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Dilated Chemist
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SwiftyDC
11/07/18 3:53:11 PM
#344:


I originally had Red > Sora, but I let B8 sway me.

Damn you, B8.
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Dilated Chemist
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The Owner of FF9
11/07/18 4:07:32 PM
#345:


SwiftyDC posted...

Damn you, B8.

How did you know my motto when making close picks this year?
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Character Battle X
Current Score: 74/88 "..."
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Safer_777
11/07/18 4:15:00 PM
#346:


Something I just noticed about the previous day's winners. ALL of them had under 50% prediction rate!
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So why we exist? What happens when we stop existing?
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redrocket
11/07/18 4:19:08 PM
#347:


HaRRicH posted...
redrocket posted...
The last couple times a series finally made a big release after dicking around with their fanbase for a decade, we got Duke Nukem Forever and Final Fantasy XV.

Oh no! KH3 could be in big trouble!


Pretty funny, but I'm still gonna point out this is quite the range: somewhere between a school bus fire-tier disaster and a divisive GotY-winner...!


*Looks at the performance Noctis put up*

Yeah, I think "divisive goty winner" only happened due to recency. Now that the hype has cooled off I think FF XV has been exposed as a disaster.
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It's like paying for bubble wrap. -transience on Final Fantasy: All the Bravest
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DoctorJimmy133
11/07/18 4:20:54 PM
#348:


Safer_777 posted...
Something I just noticed about the previous day's winners. ALL of them had under 50% prediction rate!

About time we started looking at least a little better than the casuals.
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Leonhart4
11/07/18 4:34:02 PM
#349:


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The Owner of FF9
11/07/18 4:45:22 PM
#350:


Safer_777 posted...
Something I just noticed about the previous day's winners. ALL of them had under 50% prediction rate!

We can't tell which other R2 winners were under 50% too (which I suspect are a majority). The picks from R1 are being lumped into their totals.
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Character Battle X
Current Score: 74/88 "..."
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LordoftheMorons
11/07/18 4:46:50 PM
#351:


Finally a 4/4 day for me with multiple debated matches. Really hoping I can make the leaderboard before getting killed by div 6.
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Congrats to BKSheikah for winning the BYIG Guru Challenge!
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